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MLB: The Progressive?

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Ned Yost may have lost the World Series, but a managerial trend toward run prevention may be started in his honour.

[Editor's Note: This is the site's first piece by new contributor Michael Bradburn! Welcome him aboard.]

In the end, Ned Yost and his Kansas City Royals were only 2 runs away from winning game 7 of the 2014 World Series by a score of 4-3. Or, perhaps more accurately, they were 2 prevented runs from winning 2-1.

To the Royals, this postseason was all about run prevention. Their commitment to run prevention was troubling at times. And yet through the wild card, ALDS and ALCS, they were undefeated, so who could argue? It took until game 4 of the World Series before a team legitimately beat Yost’s strategy with continuous hits in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings, all without leaving the yard.

But perhaps this World Series – if it teaches us anything other than waiting 29 years doesn’t entitle you to anything – means baseball is taking defensive metrics a lot more seriously now. And, with the announcement of the Gold Glove finalists, maybe Major League general managers will give more credit to Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating.

In a season in which we said farewell to Derek Jeter, a lot of people rightfully questioned how The Captain ever won a Gold Glove. In their eyes, Major League Baseball gets a lot of things wrong. And that’s a disappointing view to me. I always want to take the positive viewpoint, so long as the data supports it. So, when baseball announced the Gold Glove finalists, I wanted to see if defensive metrics have gained any traction over the past decade.

I decided to do this by looking at every player’s defensive runs saved (DRS), ultimate zone rating (UZR) and overall defense (Def). I wanted to use a good array of metrics for a couple of reasons: first, to see which one the Gold Glove voters seemed to favour; second, because each metric evaluates a player’s defense in a different way. UZR, for instance, is a measure of a player’s range against players of the same position. Therefore, a metric like this carries more influence over positions that are given larger zones to cover, such as center field or shortstop. Defensive runs saved, although problematic in its own way, is better for measuring the defensive worth of players whose range does not matter as much, such as catcher.

With this year’s finalists, how seriously are the voters taking these metrics? Let’s first look at the 2014 All-DRS Team, where an asterisk denotes that the player is not a Gold Glove finalist:

American LeagueAL PlayerDRSNL PlayerDRS
PDallas Keuchel10Clayton Kershaw7
CSalvador Perez8Russell Martin12
1BChris Davis*8Adrian Gonzalez12
2BIan Kinsler20D.J. LeMahieu16
3BJosh Donaldson20Nolan Arenado16
SSJ.J Hardy10Andrelton Simmons28
LFAlex Gordon27Christian Yelich13
CFLeonys Martin*15Juan Lagares28
RFKevin Kiermaier15Jason Heyward32

16 for 18 isn’t bad. It is curious why Chris Davis or Leonys Martin didn’t even make it as finalists. This is where you get into narratives, though, as Davis may have been omitted for his transgression against the drug policy late in the season. Honestly, I was surprised to see him among the best defenders – albeit at first base – at all, which is also just narrative. Not only did Chris Davis account for more run prevention than the other three Gold Glove finalists though, so too did Mike Napoli. Albert Pujols, the best of the finalists, is actually third in run prevention at his position.

Moving on, to the All-UZR Team of 2014 (remembering, of course, that range data isn’t kept for pitchers or catchers):

PositionAL PlayerUZRNL PlayerUZR
1BAlbert Pujols6.3Anthony Rizzo*7.0
2BDustin Pedroia18.3D.J. LeMahieu10.7
3BJosh Donaldson15.5Todd Frazier*6.5
SSJ.J. Hardy13.9Andrelton Simmons15.5
LFAlex Gordon25.0Christian Yelich12.8
CFJackie Bradley Jr.15.9Billy Hamilton20.1
RFKevin Kiermaier17.7Jason Heyward24.1

Chase Headley technically had the best UZR in all of baseball last season (20.9), but he is omitted because he changed leagues from the San Diego Padres to the New York Yankees. Also, Kevin Kiermaier is up against a small sample size here and is still far and away the best right fielder, beating second-place Nick Markakis at 6.2. Major League Baseball finished 12/14 – another respectable ratio. It is again curious, though, why Todd Frazier’s 6.5 UZR and 7 DRS would be overlooked for Pablo Sandoval’s 3.5 UZR and 4 DRS. Also, why would the -5.0 UZR and 0 DRS of Adam Laroche surpass Anthony Rizzo’s 7.0 UZR and 6 DRS? In fact, Laroche was the worst defensive first baseman in the National League according to his -15.3 in Def.

And, while we’re on the topic, the All-Def Team of 2014, with pitchers omitted:

PositionAL PlayerDefNL PlayerDef
CSalvador Perez17Jonathan Lucroy16.6
1BAlbert Pujols-2.4Justin Morneau-3.2
2BDustin Pedroia20.3D.J. LeMahieu12.7
3BJosh Donaldson17.7Juan Uribe14.1
SSJ.J. Hardy20.4Andrelton Simmons22.1
LFAlex Gordon17.9Christian Yelich6.7
CFJackie Bradley Jr.17.5Billy Hamilton22.1
RFNori Aoki*0.6Jason Heyward17.3

Nori Aoki (0.6 Def through 937.1 innings) was overlooked for Kevin Kiermaier (13.3 Def through 526.1 innings), Kole Calhoun (0.3 Def through 1036.1 innings), and Nick Markakis (-0.6 Def through 1314.1 innings). Whether this is a transgression is genuinely a matter of opinion. How much do you value Def? How much do you value actual innings logged in the outfield? In my opinion, he probably should have been included. With that said, you should know that even though Aoki had good range, he actually had -8 DRS. Sometimes ability to cover field doesn’t actually equate defensive prowess. We’ll mark it as a loss, even though right field in the American League was just underwhelming this year, for a grade of 15/16.

Overall, these aren’t bad ratios for Major League Baseball. Whether or not the actual winners reflect this progressive thinking, we’ll have to wait and see. Over the past three years, the American League Gold Glove winner for each position has agreed with one of these metrics 17/27 times, while the National League has only agreed 13/27. That is to say, the winner of the Gold Glove in each position has led one category of UZR, DRS or Def only 30 out of a possible 54 times. One would hope that the above tables show at least a step in the right direction.

Back in 2003, the American League awarded the Gold Glove for shortstop, and the three outfielders – as they hadn’t been split into RF, CF and LF yet – to the players who led their categories in Def. Also, the American League incidentally chose the pitcher who led their league in DRS. The National League only went 3 for 9 that season, choosing two outfielders and a second baseman who led in Def as well as UZR.

Whether we look back at this season as a starting point for defensive metrics, or just an arbitrary year in which narrative actually happened to agree with metrics in some cases is up for discussion. However, the Gold Glove electorate does seem to be taking defensive metrics with a bit more gravitas.

. . .

All statistics courtest of FanGraphs.

Michael Bradburn is a Contributor for Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @mwbii.


Liriano, Grandal, Maybin, progress in Dominican Winter League

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A handful of Friars, Storm, Missions, and Chihuahuas have taken the time and the trip to develop themselves in the Liga de Beisbol Dominicana. Here's a recap of their progress through October and the beginning of November.

The Dominican Winter League typically lasts from about the middle of October to the near end of December. The 2014 season will go from Oct 16 to Dec 21. Around 50 games are played between six teams from five different provinces.

Teams

Toros del Este

Founded in 1983, the Toros play in Estadio Francisco Micheli in the southeast La Romana province. With two league championships in 1995 and 2011, they currently have Padres Cameron Maybin, Yasmani Grandal, Rymer Liriano, and Frank Garces on their 2014 crew.

Tigres del Licey

Located in the country capital, Santo Domingo, of the Domincan Republic the Tigres were founded in 1907 and are the oldest and winningest franchise in the Dominican Winter League. They have 21 Dominican series titles and 10 Caribbean Series titles. The only Friar on the Tigres this season is Rymer Liriano.

Gigantes del Cibao

Founded in 1996, the Gigantes play in Estadio Julian Javier in San Francisco de Macorís, the northeast province of Duarte. They're still a young organization and have no championships. Donn Roach is the only Padre on the team.

Estrellas de Oriente

The Estrellas were founded in 1910 and since then have only gained championships twice. They're located in the San Pedro de Macorís province right next to La Romana and play in Estadio Tetelo Vargas. They're geared up with San Antonio Mission players Luis De La Cruz, Chris Rearick, Genison Reyes and Yeison Asencio.

Águilas Cibaeñas

Located in Santiago de los Caballeros in the Santiagos province, the Aguilas were founded in 1937 and are an extremely successful and popular club. They've nabbed 5 Caribbean Series titles and 20 national titles. Diego Goris and Jerry Sullivan joined the club for the 2014 winter league season, although Sullivan is currently inactive.

Leones del Escogido

The third most successful club and the second team located in the capital of Santo Domingo, the Leones were founded in 1921 and have won 4 Caribbean Series titles and 16 national championships. El Paso Chihuahua'n Stephen Kohlscheen and Lake Elsinore Storm'ian Jeudy Valdez play for the Leones this season.


Players

Cameron Maybin OF - Toros del Este

.350 AVG, 20 AB, 1 R, 7 H, 3 2B, 6 SO, .850 OPS


Cam pops one off Liriano's club, Tigres del Licey.

Daddy Longlegs has started in 5 games in October so far. His best plate appearances were on the 25th against the Tigres del Licey, the club that Liriano is playing for. Maybin went 4 for 4 with two doubles. In that same game Rymer went 2 for 4, popping out to Maybin once. Cam has been spreading his hits around the field, and leading innings with extra base hits. Though he is currently seeing the least amount of playing time out of batting Friars on the 40-man.


Shortly after, he's pumping that arm and stretching those legs.

Yasmani Grandal C - Toros del Este

.273 AVG, 33 AB, 3 R, 9 H, 5 2B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 10 BB, 10 SO, 947 OPS


Yaz smashes his first HR of the season against the Gigantes' Rafael Perez.

Grandal has started in 10 games this October. He has gone hitless in only three, but in two of those games has drawn 3 and 2 walks respectively. His first home run of the season, a one-out solo shot into left field, came off of Rafael Perez (former Cleveland Indian, current Indianapolis Indian), in the top of the 8th against the Gigantes del Cibao. Yaz is seeing the most playing time along with Liriano, and is leading the Padres' representatives in hitting. He's in the middle of the pack in overall batting leaders of the Dominican League.


Grandal lays the tag on Rymer Liriano's would-be RBI.

Rymer Liriano OF - Tigres del Licey

.235 AVG, 34 AB, 2 R, 8 H, 3 RBI, 8 SO, 1 SB, .533 OPS

liriano hit dom
Rymer goes opposite field for what would've been an RBI, if not for a perfect throw from right field and tag applied by Yasmani Grandal.

Rymer saw 9 starts in October as well as 1 in the the first of November. There have been two multiple-hit games, and four hitless. His best two games have been his very first against the Gigantes del Cibao where he went 2 for 4 with a stolen base, and the game against his teammates on the Toros del Este where he again went 2 for 4. He is hitting slightly better against lefties (.364) at the moment, and is almost exclusively striking out against righties (.174).

Frank Garces LHP-  Toros del Este

Garces has seen 5 appearances thus far, stringing together only 2.1 innings pitched. He hasn't produced anything to write home about yet, not having notched a strikeout yet and giving up one hit, four walks, and three earned runs. Though he has only earned one loss when going 0.1 innings.

Donn Roach RHP - Gigantes del Cibao

Roach has gotten a bit more playing time than Garces, going 6.1 innings in three appearances. Though he has given up 7 runs, only 2 of them were earned. He has only conceded 6 hits and 3 walks, and has two games with 2 strikeouts a piece over 4 innings, both games in which he started.

Luis De La Cruz RHP - Estrellas de Oriente

The righty for the San Antonio Missions has seen two batters in one game about two weeks ago, giving up an earned run on a hit. His ERA in the Texas league was around 2.69, and had 63 strikeouts in 67 innings pitched.

Chris Rearick LHP - Estrellas de Oriente

This lefty for the Missions has spanned 6 appearances throwing a full inning in one, and facing only one batter in most. In those appearances he has struck out only one, giving up 3 walks and 4 earned runs. He has 47 strikeouts in 43 innings pitched in the Texas league, with a 2.89 ERA.

Genison Reyes RHP - Estrellas de Oriente

Reyes saw a good amount of time for the Storm. He threw about 24 innings in Lake Elsinore, striking out 21. For the Estrellas, he started one game on Sunday and went hitless with a strikeout.

Yeison Asencio OF - Estrellas de Oriente

The prospect from San Antonio who had a very hot AAA debut back in August has been doing well in the Dominican arena. In 17 plate appearances he has five hits, with two RBI's and three walks. His average is currently sitting at .294, which is on-par with his San Antonio and Pacific Coast numbers.

Jerry Sullivan RHP (Inactive) - Aguilas Cibaenas
Diego Goris 3B - Aguilas Cibaenas

The former Lake Elsinore current San Antonio third baseman hasn't seen much action in the Dominican League so far. His numbers in the minor leagues were great, in an absurd amount of at bats has been able to maintain a .302 batting average. So far for the Aguilas Cabaenas, has only seen 5 plate appearances with no hits and a strikeout.

Stephen Kohlscheen RHP - Leones del Escogido

The lone Chihuahua has seen six single innings of play over six games. In those games he has had multiple strikeouts in all but two, though never giving up an earned run in either. He has only allowed 7 hits, 3 earned runs, and 3 walks with 9 K's.

Jeudy Valdez 2B  - Leones del Escogido

Another Storm representative in the infield has gotten 25 at bats, and with that collected 6 hits (one for extra bases) and four walks, notching an RBI and only striking out four times.


How to watch Liga de Dominicana

Univisión Deportes en

LIDOM.com

DirecTV 434
Time Warner 872
Cox 332
AT&T Uverse 3047

LIDOM.com will have video archives, highlights on YouTube, and typically stream games.

Anatomy of a hypothetical Reds trade

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There are a ton of moving parts in any MLB trade, but the Reds find themselves shopping for something quite specific with a currency only a few teams are looking for.

Walt Jocketty and his Jitterbug are going to be busy this winter.

The GM of the Cincinnati Reds has a bevy of crucial decisions to make before the 2015 squad heads to the Land of the Endless Strip Mall for spring training in February, and a myriad of moving parts will make each shot he calls more difficult than the average fan will give him credit for.  There's a payroll crunch, a series of injuries to vital players, a crucial need for offense in an offensively depressed era, and a handful of key pitchers facing free agency that need their contracts either extended or pawned off.  There's a top-heavy farm system that may need to be bolstered, yet there are openings on the major league roster that must be filled without forming blockades.  There's a coaching staff that will need evaluation in its second year (under hopefully healthier circumstances), an owner bent on maintaining the success seen earlier this decade, and a city starved for a deep run before the current core begins a full decline.

And, of course, there's a National League Central Division that is poised to be the deepest, most talented division in all of baseball in 2015.

The Reds have backed themselves into an interesting corner, albeit one that doesn't completely prevent them from improving the club with the upcoming season in mind.  The following is a list of the most important specifics Walt will have to navigate in order to make any sort of major move this offseason.

The Payroll

The 2014 Reds had the highest payroll in the NL Central at roughly $114 million, and the departures of Ryan Ludwick, Jack Hannahan, Ramon Santiago, and Jake Elmore won't shave any significant amount off that number.  Factor in the arbitration raises due to Mike Leake, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, Chris Heisey, Aroldis Chapman, Logan Ondrusek, and Zack Cozart, and the 2015 payroll will likely exceed the previous year's number even without a significant outside addition.

Jocketty is on record stating that the team won't be after any high-dollar guys, meaning any significant addition will either need his existing salary to be partially covered by the trading team, his existing salary to be cheap, or his salary addition to be offset by the trade of one of the high-dollar players currently on the Reds.  Given the recent history of Walt's moves, that suggests that a trade will be the way the team looks to augment the poor offensive performance of 2014.

The Starting Rotation

The Reds have cultivated an army of arms in recent years, a far cry from the days when Paul Wilson started on Opening Day and Todd Van Poppel was being counted on for double-digit starts each season.  If no moves are made, the club will reach Goodyear in February with each of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Alfredo Simon, Tony Cingrani, Daniel Corcino, David Holmberg, and Dylan Axelrod under contract and having made multiple starts for the team in 2014.  Robert Stephenson will potentially be in the mix, too, after having been ranked by some as the top RHP in the minors prior to 2014, as will well regarded arms like Michael Lorenzen, Jon Moscot, and Ben Lively.  The club also invested heavily in Cuban defector Raisel Iglesias, and the 7 year contract they signed him to included intentions on trying him out as a starter.

There is no denying that there's depth.  The question, however, is whether there's too much depth for the 25 man roster and payroll to agree with one another.

Each of Latos, Leake, Simon, and Cueto are entering their last years under contract in 2015, meaning Walt will face decisions surrounding each's place in the team's future plans, and soon.  If any is deemed to not be a fiscally prudent piece long-term, the only way to maximize their value on the trade market would be to move one - or more - before the season in order to keep any potential Qualifying Offer (QO) on the table (since players traded in-season aren't allowed to receive QO's at the end of the season).  With the likelihood of each being signed to long deals virtually nil, this is the most feasible set of trade bait Walt will have to work with.

However, the elephant in the room is the projected health of the rest of the staff, since Bailey was shelved with forearm surgery in September, Cingrani missed the bulk of the year with shoulder issues, and converted reliever Simon pitched over 110 innings more in 2014 than in either 2013 or 2012.  How much those three can be counted on will weigh heavily on any decision to move any of the SPs.

Finding a Bat in a Batless Market

League-average OPS in 2014 was just .700, the lowest such mark in over 20 years.  League-average slugging percentage was a paltry .386, also the lowest such mark in over 20 years.  While the Reds' bats were busy sleepwalking their way to being universally the worst hitting team in baseball this side of the San Diego Padres, most every other team was also busy having seasons much worse than those they'd had in recent memory, too.

Offense is down across the board, and MLB has entered into an age that is being dominated by pitching, defense, and creative scouting that has made any player who can get on base with any sort of power a prized commodity.  Unfortunately, that's the exact commodity that the Reds will be targeting this Winter, and thanks to the existing contracts and pieces on the squad, the only real position where the team can add that mythical bat is in LF, further limiting the pool of players that they may be able to pick off.

Adding to the dilemma is the pitching scenario mentioned above.  If one of Latos, Leake, or Cueto is the trade chip that Walt plans on using to add a bat, that means the trade partner must be on the market for just a single year of a high-caliber, high-priced arm, something only teams intent on winning and contending in 2015 will be focused on.

But how many teams have enough offensive depth to sacrifice a bat capable of helping a team contend in 2015 to pick up a pitcher that can only help them win in that year and that year only?  If contending in 2015 is the Reds' partner's focus, why give up an asset so scarce for the very year you need it?

A conundrum, indeed.

★★★

To summarize, the Reds need a cheap bat for LF that can help their 2015 offense improve from the 2014 doldrums but not be under a pricey, long-term contract that would block stud prospect Jesse Winker down the line.  They need to trade pitching to get that bat, but preferably pitching that is tied to salaries high enough that trading them would free up the space to pay the acquired bat.  They also need to find a team that already has enough offense and figures to be just a pitcher away from a 2015 run, but also a team that doesn't want a pitcher that is under contract for a lengthy period of time.

Simple enough, right?  Fortunately, Walt Jocketty has shown a willingness to be creative with his trades, and he's pulled off a pair in recent years that may well serve as a blueprint for what we'll witness this Winter, too.  Namely, a three team trade.

Finding a third team that has a mind to either shed payroll or add minor league depth - or both - would let the Reds shed a pitcher for a bat, a second team shed prospects for a pitcher, and a third team shed a bat for prospects, things that all happened in some fashion when Cincinnati picked up Shin-Soo Choo for 2013 and traded Ryan Hanigan prior to 2014.

And that's where I expect Walt will aim.  It won't be Giancarlo Stanton or Ryan Braun in LF, and it won't be a trade of Johnny Cueto for a pair of Top 30 prospects, either.  Rather, I think he'll trade one of the pricey arms nearing free agency, acquire an established-yet-not-sexy bat to play LF for a year or two max, and find a third team that's has a replacement for that bat and a want for two to three prospects to build depth and shed payroll.

Something like this, for instance:

  • The New York Yankees acquire RHP Mat Latos from the Cincinnati Reds
  • The Cincinnati Reds acquire OF Matt Joyce and RHP Alex Colome from the Tampa Bay Rays
  • The Tampa Bay Rays acquire C Gary Sanchez from the New York Yankees
The Yankees, who recently stated they wouldn't be after the top FA pitchers this Winter, get a top starting pitcher to help fill the void left by the potentially retiring Hiroki Kuroda, free agent Brandon McCarthy, the banged up C.C. Sabathia, the injured Ivan Nova, and the frequently injured Michael Pineda, and they would stand to get a Top 35 pick should Latos be extended a QO after the season and decline it.  Sanchez is a decent loss, but Brian McCann and his $100 million contract are standing in his way at the catching position.

The Rays would get the Yankees top hitting prospect in Sanchez, a catching prospect near to the majors that would stand to bolster the .524 OPS they received from their catchers in 2014.  They'd also shed nearly $5 million in salary by trading Joyce, who may be considered surplus to a pinched payroll that already has David DeJesus, Desmond Jennings, and Wil Myers as projected outfielders.  Considering they've lost David Price, Joe Maddon, and Andrew Friedman in the last year, they'd potentially be willing to shed another established player for a prospect of Sanchez's ilk, even if it meant Colome - a bright young arm coming off a 50 game substance abuse suspension ranked as the number 5 prospect in their system- was part of the deal, too.

And the Reds?  They get Joyce for LF, a lefty bat who mauls RHP with a career OBP over .340 who will make roughly $5 million in 2015 in his second to last year of arbitration, a player at age 30 who provides a piece to help the club in 2015 as a complement to Chris Heisey without blocking Winker long-term.  They'd also get Colome, a prospect roughly equivalent in value to the Top 35 pick the Reds would no longer stand to gain by keeping Latos and extending him a QO.  In the process, they'd also save about $3.5 million in salary difference, keeping the payroll in manageable territory like Walt's on record as requiring.

If that happens exactly, each of you owes me a beer.  If something similar happens, no beer, just promise to not act like you're at all surprised.

Yankees unlikely to pursue Pablo Sandoval, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, or James Shields

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New York doesn't plan on doling out any monstrous contracts this offseason.

The New York Yankees are likely to keep things a bit quieter this offseason. According to Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News, the Yankees "have no plans" to pursue the likes of top-tier free agents Pablo Sandoval, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, or James Shields. Instead, the club plans on focusing on bringing back 2014 trade acquisitions Chase Headley and Brandon McCarthy, who both played quite well after arriving in New York.

The Yankees spent over $450 million last winter on Brian McCann, Masahiro Tanaka, Carlos Beltran, and Jacoby Ellsbury, and wound up finishing with just a 84-78 record, not coming particularly close to making the postseason. At this point, the club doesn't plan on adding any nine-figure contracts that may worsen an already precarious financial situation.

The 31-year-old McCarthy was quite good after coming over from Arizona in early July. In 14 starts, he threw just over 90 innings, posting a 2.89 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, and 1.6 WAR. After Tanaka, Michael Pineda, and CC Sabathia, the Yankees don't have much in the way of rotation options for next season, so it makes plenty of sense to bring back McCarthy.

The 30-year-old Headley was similarly good after making his way to the Bronx from San Diego. In 224 plate appearances with the Bombers, he hit .262/.371/.398 with a 119 OPS+, which was a significant improvement on the .229/.296/.355 (90 OPS+) slash line he posted with the Padres over the first half of the season. While Headley is unlikely to return to his MVP-caliber 2012 form, some slightly above-average offense coupled with excellent defense should make him a very strong option at the hot corner.

Of course, the Yankees will be getting longtime third baseman Alex Rodriguez back from suspension next season, which could block the way for Headley's return. However, the Yankees' interest in Headley likely suggests that the club is intending on mostly playing Rodriguez at designated hitter in 2015.

The Yankees have also offered closer David Robertson a $15.3 million qualifying offer (which he is expected to decline), and seem to be prepared to lose the former All-Star, though it's still very possible they retain him. Per Feinsand and Madden, Robertson is likely in line for a three or four-year deal, as more than a half dozen teams are interested in him. Furthermore, the Yankees did not offer right-hander Hiroki Kuroda a qualifying offer, as, at 39-years-old, he may be "leaning toward retirement."

The Padres Hit More New Fence Homers This Year

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Prior to the 2013 season, the Padres made some pretty significant changes to the fences at Petco Park. Last year, those new dimensions generated 21 extra home runs, or one per every 3.86 games. This year, there were just sixteen, or one every 5.06 games. Now, your first thought may be that of course there were fewer new fence homers. This year's offense was historically bad! And that's true: The 2014 crew hit 54 dingers at home, 12 fewer than the season before. But the newish fences played in the Padres' favor this season, with 10 of the extra home runs coming off the bats of the good guys. The 2013 team only hit a measly 8 short homers. And this year's single biggest beneficiary? Alexi Amarista, who hit three into the Jack Deck. Jedd Gyorko was hot on his tail with a pair. Obviously, two seasons is a pretty small sample size for reading anything into this, but you can dig into all the data over at Padres.com.

Games in which Tony Gwynn hit a home run and struck out

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I was reading my pal Marcus's great cardblog All The Way To The Backstop, as I tend to do just about every day, when I noticed an offhand remark he made in his most recent post, in which he wondered how many times Tony Gwynn homered and struck out in the same game. That got me wondering as well, and since I'm the type to really dwell on something once it gets in my mind, I used Baseball-Reference's Play Index to look up how many times it happened. There were 13 such occasions. I kept poking around, and pored over the box scores and play-by-play from each game to get the names of the pitchers involved and whatever other useful information I could glean. Below is a table of every time Tony Gwynn homered and struck out in the same game; below that are additional related facts.

DateHR PitcherK Pitcher
04/28/85Fernando ValenzuelaValenzuela
04/13/86Tom BrowningBrowning
05/23/86Jesse OroscoSid Fernandez
08/13/86Doyle AlexanderAlexander
09/17/86Vida BlueMark Davis
07/05/87Bryn SmithJeff Parrett
04/11/89John SmoltzJose Alvarez
07/12/90John SmileyBill Landrum
07/11/93Kent BottenfieldPete Young
06/19/94Brian WilliamsWilliams/ Ross Powell
07/29/97Tyler GreeneRicky Botallico
04/15/99Brian BohanonBohanon
05/23/00Al LeiterLeiter
  • Gwynn added a walk in the 1990 and '97 games for his only two games featuring all three true outcomes; worth noting is that in the 1990 game, his strikeout came in the tenth inning, and he walked in the thirteenth. For contrast, Jim Thome has the most career three-true-outcomes games with 154; Mark McGwire is second with 133, and Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, and Adam Dunn are tied for third with 125.
  • Tony struck out and homered in the same game most frequently in April and July, four times in each. The only other month he did it twice in was May; he did it on May 23 twice, 14 years apart.
  • Only six pitchers allowed a homer to and struck out Tony Gwynn in the same game: Fernando Valenzuela, Tom Browning, Doyle Alexander, future teammate Brian Williams, Brian Bohanon, and Al Leiter.
  • The 13 games were split 7-6 home versus road, and the Padres record in these games was 7-6.
  • Of the 13 home runs, four took place in the first inning, followed by two each in the fifth, sixth, and ninth. The other three came in the fourth, seventh, and eighth.
  • The first inning also holds the strikeout lead, with five. He struck out in three separate ninth innings, followed by the third and seventh with a pair apiece.
  • Gwynn homered in the first and struck out in the ninth two different times, and did the complete opposite twice also. He homered in the fifth and struck out in the seventh twice, as well.

Billy Gasparino latest rumored to join Dodgers front office

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The Dodgers were granted permission on Wednesday to interview Padres scouting director Billy Gasparino for a position in their front office, per Corey Brock of MLB.com. Gasparino could be the latest addition in a rapidly-growing front office in Los Angeles.

We talked a little Tuesday night about Gasparino, rumored to be joining the Dodgers by both Jon Heyman of CBS Sports and Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. Gasparino was also mentioned by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register today as potentially coming aboard, and with the formality of permission granted to interview Gasparino the wheels are definitely in motion for a move.

Gasparino worked with Josh Byrnes in San Diego for the last four seasons until Byrnes was let go by the Padres in June. Byrnes is expected to be a senior executive on president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman's staff with the Dodgers along with former A's assistant general manager Farhan Zaidi as GM, though nothing has yet been announced by the team.

In San Diego, Gasparino ran the last two drafts, which could essentially make this a trade of sorts with former Dodger Logan White now in new GM A.J. Preller's front office. In June, Gasparino described his draft planning to Bill Center of Padres Friar Wire:

"There isn’t much down time and I like that," Gasparino said recently while discussing the year-round project that leads to the June draft.

"We’re constantly evaluating players. We’re not always making changes, but we want to make sure our scouts are seeing players as many times as possible. That includes Gasparino, who is on the road throughout the spring looking at high school seniors and eligible college prospects.

"We’re constantly adjusting our reports."

Prior to becoming scouting director, Gasparino was a national crosschecker for both the Padres and Blue Jays for six years, and was an area scout in Southern California for three years with the Blue Jays before that.

The Rockies drafted Gasparino in the 17th round in 1999 out of Oklahoma State, and he hit .260/.373/.388 in 62 games for Class-A Portland in his one minor league season, playing third base, second base and shortstop.

In between his playing career ending and getting back into baseball, Gasparino worked in finance, though as he explained in a 2013 interview with Padres 360, he didn't enjoy it very much:

Padres360 - If you weren’t involved in baseball, what would you be doing?

Billy Gasparino - Well, I know what I wouldn’t do.  I was actually a stock broker for 2 years and I didn’t like it so I know what I wouldn’t be doing.  I do have a finance degree and I like the business aspect, so maybe try to own a small business if I could where you’re still like managing people and have control of what you are doing, where it’s goal oriented and competitive. I could definitely see doing something like that.  I don’t know, that’s part of the problem, I couldn’t find anything, so I came back to baseball and so I am happy to be here.

Help us choose the funniest Padres moment of 2014

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My memory is terrible these days, which isn't always ideal but helps when you're a Padres fan.  I can barely remember this past season, which helps me sleep at night but makes the blogging business a bit tough.  I'm a little late with this post but every blog on the SB Nation network is currently voting for their team's funniest moment as part of this year's SBN Awards.  We'll continue with the other categories throughout the week.  Knowing us, they'll be late as well.

I had to crowd source these nominees for "Funniest Moment" on Twitter because I was drawing a complete blank.  I had to weed through the "You know what's funny?  Your FACE!" and "The Padres record was funny" type Tweets but ended up with some moments that might just cause you to chuckle.  Let's begin!

Dodger Defensive Meltdown

This moment is going to get my vote.  I remember watching it as it happened and I was giggling like I was being tickled on my inner thigh.  It was delightful and a little bit erotic.  This is a good edit of all the broadcaster reactions compiled by Padres Social Hour's Seth Foster. (cap tip to co-host Mike Grace)

Medica trips rounding first

This moment is funny once you realize that Tommy Medica's bare chest wasn't scraped or scratched when he stumbled while rounding first base.  If anything were to happen to his chest he'd just be an average baseball player with a great smile and strong jawline.  Be sure to notice his interaction with his teammates, that charm is why the ladies love him... also his chest.

Yasmani Grandal video bombs Seth Smith

I had forgotten about this video bomb until MatthewVeryGood reminded me on Twitter.  Yasmani was just returning to the team from a PED suspension or an injury or something and our first look at him in Spring was this. It was somehow reassuring.

BTW- Remember how I told you my memory was bad?  I stared at Seth Smith for like 2 minutes trying to remember his name.  I'll try to remember to make an appointment with a doctor.

Really high-level video bomb from Grandal in this Seth Smith interview. Bravo.

A video posted by Jesse Agler (@jesseagler) on

Padres Prank Gyorko

Gyorko's brother Randy reminded us of this Padres Prank.  It's the classic "chew some bubble gum, stick it to the bottom of a plastic cup and attach it to your teammate's cap and see how long it takes him to notice it" trick.  He had no idea.  None at all.  What if he were to take the field with the cup on his head?  Has that ever happened?  I shouldn't worry so much.

#SpyOnCarlos

Just when you thought Padres players were the worst Twitter follows ever, Huston Street joined and changed all that with one hashtag: #SpyOnCarlos.  Catching Carlos Quentin, the notoriously unfriendly Padre, in his natural habitat pleased the voyeur in all of us but the rest of the team mugging for the camera in the background made us laugh.

Okay, let's stop there and vote on these.

Poll
What was the funniest moment of the Padres 2014 season?

  55 votes |Results


Jeff Pickler rumored to join Dodgers front office

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Pickler has worked with Josh Byrnes for seven seasons in both Arizona and San Diego.

Billy Gasparino might not be the only Josh Byrnes connection to join the Dodgers. Padres special assignment scout Jeff Pickler is also rumored to be joining the Dodgers staff, per both Mark Saxon of ESPN and Corey Brock of MLB.com, though Pickler's role is unknown.

Pickler, 38, was drafted by the Brewers in the 11th round in 1999 out of Tennessee. He played parts of eight minor league seasons, mostly at second base with some left field mixed in, as well as scattered games all over. Pickler hit .299/.370/.374 in 904 minor league games, including 491 games in Triple-A in the Brewers, Rangers and Rockies systems.

Among Pickler's minor league stops were Ogden, Tulsa and Oklahoma City, all currently Dodgers affiliates.

After retiring as a player, Pickler worked with Byrnes as an advance scout and special assistant for the Diamondbacks in 2006-2008. After one season as an assistant coach at the University of Arizona in 2009, Pickler joined the Padres scouting department as a pro scout in 2010, one season before Byrnes joined him in San Diego.

In his year with the Wildcats, Pickler implemented major league technology using the BATS software used in MLB to help Arizona study film, per Ryan Finley of the Arizona Daily Star:

How does film study help players improve?

The thing about statistics — and this includes BATS — is that is allows you to explain the 'how' and 'why,' as opposed to just the 'what'. We can all see the 'what' — we can see a guy's 3 for his last 14, that he might as well not be in the lineup tomorrow. The 'how' and 'why' is a little more complicated; that's what the data and video is able to show us. … We can figure out the how and why, and maybe fix things a lot sooner. If we want to watch Player B take swings on fastballs when he's ahead in the count, with the ball on the outer-third, with runners in scoring position, we can watch those swings in a matter of two seconds. Those 15, 20 clips pop right up.

How did you get into the video analysis? Did you watch a lot of film when you were playing?

Actually, not at all. I was raised a baseball-rat grinder. I was introduced to most of the technology stuff in my two years with the Diamondbacks. Josh Byrnes, the Diamondbacks general manager, was one of the pioneers when it came to using video for advanced scouting. I learned lot of that stuff from him.

Pickler is a native of Garden Grove and played baseball at Foothill baseball in Santa Ana.

Deivi Cruz birthday card: 2002 Fleer Tradition Update

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If we're being real with each other, I don't have anything interesting to say about Deivi Cruz. He was the Padres' shortstop for one season back during the couple of years I took a sabbatical from following baseball on a day-to-day basis, and a perusal of his numbers tells me I didn't miss much. Nevertheless, I do have a few cards of him, and today is his birthday, so here we are.

This is my favorite of the handful of cards I have filed between those of Cesar Crespo and Jose Cruz, Jr. It's from the 2002 Fleer Tradition Update set, which was based on the classic 1934 Goudey set. It's not a true throwback, but a convincing enough knockoff-- kind of like those '70s fauxback uniforms the Rays wear now and then.

The back of the card is fairly basic. I mean, of course, the old definition of basic. It's not like the back of this card be drankin' pumpkin spice lattes on the way to yoga.

The silhouette is a nice touch. For some reason, it makes the card as a whole seem a lot less "cheap" to me. It ties the front to the back, bringing it full circle and giving it a sense of completion. Now if only I could think of a way to bring this post full circle and give it a sense of completion.

Nope, still got nothing. Oh, well. Happy birthday, guy I don't know. Type at you later, everybody else.

Dee and Preller Take Questions From Season Ticket Holders

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Earlier tonight, Jesse Agler hosted a conference call for Padres season ticket holders with club President Mike Dee and General Manager A.J. Preller. The discussion covered a wide range of subjects, like power hitters and payroll and power hitters and free agents and something about power hitters.

Preller opened the conversation by praising the new front office hires, mentioning (in no particular order) Don Welke, Sam Geany, and newest hire Logan White. "It's a blend of youth and experience," he said, explaining that the goal of his team was to identify talent on every market, amateur, international, and professional. The first question he fielded was about finding some of that talent and brining some sorely needed power hitting to the club. "Power is at a premium right now." Preller knows everybody is looking for power, and that offense is down across baseball, but he still wants a big bat in the lineup. "It's going to be tough to acquire, but it's going to be an area of focus."

After that, a fan asked about moving in the fences. Again. Really. Mike Dee handled that one, saying that they were pretty happy with the changes made two years ago. He noted that the left field fence was coming in slightly, but that it wasn't related to the way the park plays. "I think there are other parks that play similarly," he noted, comparing the way Petco plays now to the the Giants' AT&T Park.

The next question was about the free agent market, an area Preller's recent predecessors never made a big splash in. "We've definitely got a target list." He didn't say who was on that list (for obvious reasons), but said, "There's definitely good value out there. It's our job to find it."

Somebody stole my question and asked about Yasmany Tomas. "We're still in the process of making our evaluation of what we think his value is." Tomas and his agent will be doing the same, as will the other clubs showing interest in the young Cuban outfielder. "We're in the game. We've seen the player. We've had eyes on him." Preller was playing his cards close to the vest, but in my head I pictured him salivating like a hungry wolf.

Dee fielded the next question, which anticipated fans criticizing the decision to spend money on a fancy new scoreboard instead of high-priced on-field talent. He put that idea to rest pretty quickly. "These are not buckets of resources that are intermingled. We have increased payroll significantly over the last two years, and we're prepared to do that again this year." Some will scoff at that idea, but there is a big difference between a onetime capital expense and recurring labor costs. Or, in Dee's words, "It's not a question of either-or. I think we can do both."

If you're not talking about the ballpark or the players, you want to know about the hitting coach. The way Preller talked about it, it sounded like it was Black's decision to make. "I know Buddy has had a chance to sit down and talk to a few candidates." The team expects to announce Plantier's replacement in the next week or so.

With the Winter Meetings coming to town in one short month, there was some conversation about what actually happens. It was pretty boring. Something about every team having a suite that they use as a base of operations. Scouts might mingle in the lobby. Meetings, business, blah blah blah.

The All-Star Game is, as always, a hot topic. Dee seemed optimistic. "Hopefully we'll have some news this year on that front. Rest assured we've been the squeaky wheel." The latest round of improvements to the ballpark should definitely help get the notice of MLB.

What's the team's biggest need? "Improving the position player quality is the top area of need," according to Preller. Other teams look at the Padres and see pitching and catching depth, while A.J. is looking for offense and defense, so there are deals that can be made.

Asked who he liked growing up, Preller talked a lot about stability. "You had the Cal Ripken's and the Kirby Puckett's. For me growing up in New York it was Don Mattingly." He wants somebody to fill that kind of role in San Diego. As to which color uniforms he'd prefer, he was diplomatic. "As far as the brown or the blue, I'll probably leave that to Mike." Dee joked, "Whichever jersey we win in."

The final question of the evening compared Preller and Dee to the numerous predecessors they've had in the last few years: What are you doing differently than everybody before you? "You need people with ability, and then you need stability. That's going to be our focus." It's why Preller has brought so many highly regarded talent evaluators to his front office. "It really just starts with good evaluation."

With the hot stove season starting up, we may not hear much from the new GM for a while, so it was nice to get some time with him tonight.

Trevor Bauer Established Himself as a Fixture in the Rotation

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While it feels like he has had a long and winding road to a full-time MLB job, Trevor Bauer is only 23. He's more than capable of filling that #4 slot, but can he do more?


Every day you'll find a look back at the 2014 season for one of the Indians or their key prospects, as we sort out what happened and what it means for the franchise going forward.

Trevor Bauer

  • Position: Right-handed pitcher
  • Age: 23
  • Acquired: via trade for Shin-Soo Choo, December 2012
  • Contract status: Pre-arbitration for 2015 (~$500,000)

By the time Trevor Bauer was shipped from Arizona to Cleveland, the shine was starting to wear off his prospect status. But even a slightly tarnished Bauer possessed the potential to sit atop a rotation, so the hopes were high. Many, including yours truly, were thrilled with the return and excited to see what Bauer could do.

His first year in Cleveland was pretty much a disaster, and as a result, he started 2015 in Columbus. After a dominant first start for the Clippers (6 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 2 H, 1 ER), Bauer was called up for a spot start on April 9 against a weak San Diego Padres offense. The start was solid (another 6 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, lending credence to the theory that the Padres had a AAA lineup), but Bauer was sent back to Columbus immediately after the start.

Over six more AAA starts, Bauer showed some important progress. Bauer's issues have always been two-fold - walks and home runs (which, by the way, are the two biggest problems a pitcher can have). But over his seven AAA starts in April and May, he kept the walks down (2.74 BB/9 after 5.41 last year), and kept the HR in check (.98 HR/9, down from 1.04). And that was enough to earn him a shot back with the big club.

After coming back, Bauer wasn't great, but he wasn't bad enough to lose his job, either. He took the mound every fifth day the rest of the way, putting together a total of 26 starts and 153 IP. But the season was a bit up and down.

Here's an example - between August 8 and September 9, Bauer gave up 5, 2, 5, 0, 0, 4, and 4 runs. His strike outs ranged from 9 over 6 IP to 4 over 5.2. His walks ranged from 2 over 8 IP to 4 over 3.1. Sometimes he would look like a future star; sometimes he would look like a future Clipper.

The sum total was 8.41 K/9 (better than he did in MLB or AAA last year), 3.53 BB/9 (again better than he did at either level last year), .94 HR/9 (again improvement over both AAA and MLB). He posted a 4.18 ERA and 4.01 FIP, neither of which scream "ace," but both of which are huge improvements and both of which suggest "solid rotation piece."

And keep in mind, Bauer is still just 23. He's been hyped for years and this is the third year in which he has faced MLB hitters, but he is still learning to pitch.

2014 grade: C

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2015 Outlook

Bauer is almost assuredly the #4 going into the season, and if he does nothing but repeat his 2014, he'll be a solid fourth starter. But in camp and the early season, I'll be watching the BB and HR numbers. If those continue trending down, the Tribe could have something special on their hands. The thing is, he doesn't HAVE to improve to be a valuable piece, and that is a great place to be.

Charges Filed Against Cabrera After September Arrest

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If you haven't yet succeeded in banishing the 2014 season from your memory, you might remember that Everth Cabrera was arrested for driving under the influence in early September. In the months since, there's been nothing but silence on the issue. Until yesterday, that is. The San Diego District Attorney's office has officially filed charges against the shortstop. The charges did not include a DUI, but he is being accused of resisting arrest, which could send him to jail for up to a year. He could also face a $100 fine for having pot in his car.

Here's the official statement from the Padres, per the UT:

"We are deeply troubled by the charges filed today against Everth Cabrera. We will defer to the judicial system to resolve the legal aspects of this case. As it relates to his future with the Padres, we will make a determination in the near future."

Team President Mike Dee also mentioned the charges in last night's Member conference call, saying that the team is going to let the justice system do its job, and all decisions regarding Cabrera's future with the team rest with General Manager A.J. Preller.

The next step in the process will be Cabrera's arraignment, currently set for December 8th. His presence in court won't be required then, which means he won't have to fly back from his home in Nicaragua, where he's currently spending the offseason.

Help us choose the most regrettable Padres moment of 2014

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The 2014 season was loaded with regrettable moments for the Padres -- even more so than most years -- so the second category for this year's SB Nation MLB Awards is right up our alley. While a lot of fans, including myself, had a hard time thinking of many candidates for the funniest moment of the season, the mere mention of this particular topic had people stumbling over their words trying to blurt out seven awful things all at once. I managed to trim the many grievances down to six, which was no small task. That's my excuse for being late with this, and I'm sticking to it. Here are the nominees, in chronological order. Don't forget to vote at the end! You won't get a sticker that says you did, but you will get a taste of sweet, sweet civic pride for making your voice heard in your community.

PA Announcer Fiasco

The organization pinched out their first candidate for most regrettable moment before the season even began. They fired longtime public address announcer Frank Anthony and opened up an open cattle call for his job. Then they took their sweet time whittling the list down to 50, then allowed each of those candidates to announce one batter in a preseason game, and opened up voting which was only taken into consideration. It dragged into the regular season, and they eventually selected Alex Miniak, a Florida native who served in the same capacity for the AA New Hampshire River Cats. Some would point to the hiring of an out-of-towner cut from the conventional PA mold as an indicator that the whole process was a sham, but even more were sick of the whole storyline before he was hired.

On-Deck Suite Infomercial

A little over a month into the season, the Padres turned their broadcast of a home game against the Royals into a three-hour commercial for premium seats. Television broadcasters Mark Grant and Dick Enberg called the game from the On-Deck Suite, which could have been a neat idea on its own. However,

During breaks in the game, the broadcasters threw to taped segments of them visiting the restaurant that is available in the all inclusive seat price.  President Mike Dee even sat with the broadcasters for an inning telling them about how his idea for the seats came about in the late 90s.  They talked about the seats a lot, probably more than they should have.

Many fans on Twitter thought the game long sales pitch was distracting and inappropriate.  Realistically how many fans can actually afford these seats, that are likely over $500 a pop?  Why not focus on those that can afford them instead of the entire Fox Sports San Diego audience?

While this miscue seemed very out-of-touch and drew the ire of Padres fans, it received nowhere near the level of widespread ridicule that the next nominee did.

Johnny Manziel Draft Pick

In the twenty-eighth round of the June amateur draft, the Padres selected Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Johnny Manziel, who had not played baseball since high school, and wasn't about to take it up again. It was a thrown away pick, and was rightfully the butt of even the most casual baseball or football fan's jokes. The wasted pick didn't even have any symbolic or sentimental twist to lessen the blowback, as Manziel has absolutely no ties to San Diego or the Padres, save for dining with Mike Dee one time.

BS Plaza

As ridiculous as burning a draft pick as a professional courtesy/ extremely misguided PR stunt is, it can barely hold a candle to the mind-numbingly insane decision to honor a man who actively sabotaged the franchise for decades. The backlash was immediate and near-unanimous when the team announced that it was naming a plaza at Petco Park after Bud Selig. The team backpedaled, then made it worse when Dee offered up some revisionist history claiming that Selig was instrumental in keeping the Padres from moving, insulting the fanbase in the process. The ongoing fecesnado drew the attention of Keith Olbermann, who cited Gaslamp Ball as he railed against the "honor". Despite virtually universal disapproval, Dee insisted he had "no regrets". I'm guessing that the results of this voting will show that most people believe he should have at least one.

Everth Cabrera Incident

In the first weekend of September, while he was on the disabled list, shortstop Everth Cabrera was cited for DUI in a strange incident, the details of which are still in question. Cabrera, who served a PED suspension last year and was charged with domestic violence the year before, was allegedly driving under the influence of marijuana, and was in possession of a small amount of the substance. Just yesterday he was charged with resisting arrest in relation to the incident, and could face up to a year in jail. He won't, but he could.

Every single game they took the field wearing blue

Seriously, enough is enough. Every day the Padres don't wear brown is one day too many.

Poll
What was the most regrettable moment of the Padres' 2014 season?

  155 votes |Results

Angels Sign Jeremy McBryde - Dipoto Riseth!

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Angels GM Jerry Dipoto has wasted no time getting the party started.

Minor league free agent Jeremy McBryde will be wearing a Halo in 2015. He was signed to a major league contract with the Angels on Friday. At age 28, after eight seasons in the minors, McBryde joined a 40-Man roster for the first time in his career.

Why would the Angels make such a big stab - guaranteeing McBryde the major league minimum salary of over a half-million dollars for 2015 - for a kid who has never set foot on a major league mound? In this action, Jerry Dipoto reveals his long game. The gamble of a roster spot and a major league minimum salary is peanuts in the ongoing quest for bullpen depth. Considering that free agent Jason Grilli is ten years older than McBryde and will cost at least $3 Million to sign, the gamble here is an intelligent one.

Add into this thinking more than just the money. McBryde pitched in the pitching-rich Padres organization for seven seasons and was converted to a reliever after four of them. The A's had him last year and tried him out as the fifth starter for the Sacramento RiverCats in April before hurling him back to the pen in a hurry. The Athletics had one of the deepest organizational bullpens in all of baseball. It is not a stretch to assert that had McBryde pitched any one of perhaps twenty organizations in baseball, he would have already carved a niche of some sort in a major league pen. Is this not the practice of finding underutilized competitive resource and hoarding it to be used to gain a small advantage ever the rest of the sport? I believe that is called Moneyball in some places.

Consider what Dipoto has done - A's GM Billy Beane and his scouts are great at spotting talent. They sign a talented player BUT they are so good at spotting talent that this particular player never gets the call. Dipoto got the A's to do all the work and he just swooped by with a little extra dough and the glamor a baseball lifer was waiting for. If luck is when preparedness meets opportunity, the Halos just got lucky!

McBryde has lots of potential beyond just assuming the Grilli role. His numbers against right handed batters are jaw-dropping:

Is he a ROOGY (Righty One-Out GuY) who can come in to sit down one tough slugger in the far side of the batter's box or is he a good late-innings guy? McBryde was converted into the closer for the AAA RiverCats, where A's AAA pitching coach Rick Rodriguez compared him to much-vaunted relief prospect Evan Scribner in an informative interview with the Athletics Farm Site:

McBryde has come a long way. Starting the year off, we really didn’t know where he was going to pitch. He kind of did a little bit of long relief, in the middle, some other stuff. And lately, he’s kind of been in a closing role with Scribner. And he’s excelled, he’s done very well, especially against right-handed hitters, and even against left-handed hitters. But he’s a guy who definitely can close a game just as well as (Evan) Scribner can

Which definitely puts McBryde into the conversation about closing for the Halos in the future. This is a conversation we will want to be having as Jerry Dipoto's cherry-picking seems to have yielded something that is potentially as sweet as they get. From the depths of other organizations, greatness may lie. It was time to scoop it up and Dipoto Riseth.


Help us choose the best Padres defensive play of 2014

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As one of the more optimistic of Padres fans, I spend a lot of time defending the Friars and my own fanhood against the rampant negativity that can inhabit the fanbase. But after thinking back and reliving all these great plays from the 2014 season, I can see that the Padres can be quite apt with their own defense [cue laugh track]. When the team was failing at the plate is always nice to see some good defense to help keep them in  games and make us realize that it's not ALL a disaster.

When I began thinking of the best defensive plays of the year, only a couple really jumped out off the top of my head. But as I went back through the video archives on padres.com, I found SO many gems that I had unfortunately forgotten about. I narrowed them down to the eight below, and even that was difficult. Now it's your turn to vote for your favorite in the poll and help us decide the best of the bunch!

Stauffer reacts quickly to comebacker (04/24)

There were a lot of reasons to remember this game. It lasted a long time and Andrew Cashner made his debut in left field. But one of the most memorable moments was this play. Stauffer had come in to pitch relief at the same time Cashner came in to play left. It's the bottom of the 11th inning and the game is still tied. Jayson Werth tries to be the hero of the game, but Stauffer knows what a terrible human being he is and prevents that by snagging this comebacker for the out. The longest-tenured Padre shows off his cat-like reflexes and makes one of the best defensive plays of the year.

Will Venable diving catch to rob Jayson Werth (04/27)

Whenever you think about great defensive plays, Will Venable always seems to be in the mix, and 2014 was no exception. This play takes us all the way back to April when our Padres made a trip to the nation's capital. Not only is the play itself superb, but the fact that it happened off Jayson Werth just makes it all the better. Look at that classic Venable layout as he goes after the ball in right field, looking like Superman. But he's better than Superman. He's America's Finest City's Sweetheart.

Gyorko throws out runner after ball caroms off his own arm (05/21)

When you're out there playing defense, you always have to be on your toes and looking for second and third chances to get outs. Here the ball gets Gyorko in the arm and flies straight up, and to the average infielder that may have been the end of the play. But Gyorko's awareness helps him keep track of the ball and, as it falls back down, make a barehand catch and throw out the runner.

Chris Nelson and Tommy Medica back-to-back plays in the stands (08/12)

This was the first thing to come to my mind when I began thinking of the best defensive plays of the year. First let's look at the Nelson catch. He was playing against his former team at the time, which always adds to the fun. But more importantly, look at the reaction of the people in the stands. I think that's what makes the play for me. When the guys in the stands realize Nelson has a chance, you can actually see them back off from the ball and give Nelson room to make the play. Way to be on your toes, Padres fans! Now the Medica catch wasn't as outstanding, but it was still a pretty fantastic display of that extra effort you always love to see from your defenders. Each of these plays are good enough to make the list on their own, but having them happen back-to-back makes them even more amazing. Tommy Medica's reaction ("Oh s__t!") and smile don't hurt either.

Liriano catch at the fence (08/29)

Rymer Liriano's callup to the big league club was one of the more exciting moves this season (IMO) and it was fun to get a glimpse into the talent that he's been displaying down in the minors. Most of that happened at the plate, but this play was pretty spectacular as well. He helps out Andrew Cashner and gets the final out of the inning with this snazzy catch at the fence. And who's behind that fence, you wonder? None other than our very own daveysapien.

Amarista's bunny hop prevents a Panda base hit (09/21)

When I was looking through all these videos, there were so many Amarista defensive highlights. Like a ton. A lot of people like to complain when he plays certain positions or whatever, but Amarista has been a champ all season. He's moved around the infield AND the outfield, playing his little heart out no matter where Buddy puts him. I don't know if it's because his stature requires him to make a little extra effort to get to balls, but he so often makes plays that you might not expect him to make. Here's just one example that stood out. Watch him streeeetch for that ball to make the out and end the inning. "Super Ninja," as Dick calls him.

Padres fail to secure double play on first try, but nail it on second attempt (09/15)

Good defensive plays aren't always flashy. Sometimes they sneak up on you and before you even realize what's happening, BOOM - the play is over and an out is recorded. This is that kind of play. At first you're like, "YEAH GYORKO MAKIN' IT LOOK EASY!" And then you're like, "Awwww Gyorko you shoulda had that, you goober." And then you're like, "Wait what just happened?" Here we see some damn fine heads-up defense as our Padres get the out on a second attempt after everyone thinks the play is over. It's no diving catch or leaping grab at the wall or fast-paced double play, but it gets the job done and showcases some very smart ballplaying.

Despaigne dives from the mound to get the out (09/14)

I just LOVE when a pitcher gets into the action. Some people don't, because they don't want pitchers to take risks and get themselves hurt. But it's one of my favorite things to see. Here Despaigne takes matters into his own hands, literally. The matter being the ball, of course. He runs from the mound and dives for a ball in the infield to make the out. You'd never see that in the AL.

Poll
What was the best Padres defensive play of 2014?

  18 votes |Results

Pick the most important hit of the Padres 2014 season!

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In an endless ocean of godawful at bats, the 2014 season had a few treasures buried deep. Here we surface some of the most memorable, and choose the best of them all.

In the deep sea of terrible, terrible, very terrible hitting from the Padres' 2014 season, a few enjoyable shiny seashells washed ashore the beaches of San Diego. Our lineup was an absolute disaster, and with a year plagued with some of the worst hitting in the franchises history it's pretty easy to pick out a very select few moments where our hitting was great, or at the very least memorable.

For this category, it might be difficult to find what would be considered the "most important". A few of the stand-out hits fall under that "important to me" category for different reasons. Some of them embodied the excitement of a prospect having their major league debut, and others were a wash of relief as we avoided getting no-hit.

I had the opportunity to write a large amount of recaps for the games this season, so my suggestions are hits that I have vivid memories of, and why they're important to me - and the Padres 2014 season as a whole:

Rymer Liriano's annhilates a poor little baseball for his first major league home run

What can be simply described as a "hope for the future" hit, watching Rymer Liranio turn on an inside fastball in his third game of his MLB career and decimate a 427-foot home run gave fans a great feeling. For the entire series, the Rockies had been pitching Liriano deep inside, taking advantage of his swing and keeping him quiet. Finally, he adjusted, and as a result became the eighth Friar to touch the third-story of the Western Metal Supply Co. building with his two-run bomb.

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Cory Spangenberg's first major league home run is a pinch-hit walk off fresh off the bench

As a kid, or even as somebody in the minor leagues, the fantasy of a major league home run can tend to be theatrical. "Bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, two outs, full count" is usually the baseball fantasy scenario that gets concocted in our heads. Very few get to experience that real-life opportunty. For Spangy everything aligned. Called up on August 30th, and announced via Twitter from Cory, by November 2nd he was thrust into that ultimate moment: bottom of the ninth, tie game, pinch hitting for a big league team.

And he did it.

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Chase Headley breaks Clayton Kershaw's 41 scoreless-inning streak

Very few things in life are more satisfying than upsetting a team as icky and despised as the Dodgers. Consistently leading polls in "hateability", and even more consistently on top of the Padres in standings; it's really easy to get excited at any possibly way to jeer and jab at the Yankees of the West. This year, we got to experience Tyson Ross break up a Kershaw no-hit bid, we got to see them fall all over themselves (even though they still beat us), and eventually fall in the playoffs, again. More importantly, though, we got the opportunity to spoil some fun.

It was this stab at Los Angeles that was the most smugly satisfying of all. With the Padres sitting on one of the worst offenses in the history of the sport; opposing ESPN content provider Clayton Kershaw held an absurdly good streak of 41 scoreless innings. That was, until Chase Headley ruined everything. It was so important and gratifying that jodes reached the New York Times off of it.

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Andrew Cashner and his mullet leg out their first bearded career triple

Padres pitchers do it all. The front-line force of the Friars this year was undoubtedly the Friars pitching, spearheaded by the duo of Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross. But this is about hitting right now, not pitching, and it doesn't really get any better than watching Ca$h swing the bat. He crushes baseballs, and this time it was just hard enough to earn him his first ever triple, and first by a pitcher in the 2014 season.

The only-triple-by-a-pitcher title was eventually usurped, but the intensity and Brown and Gold stylishness of Cashner's will never be trumped or forgotten. Still the beardiest triple of 2014.

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Yasmani Grandal's proves he's currently the most powerful Friar with a bat on his go-ahead grand slam

With 100+ more plate appearances than his catcher counterpart Rene Rivera, Yasmani lead the Padres in home runs for 2014. His ISO was sitting at .175, and for the second half of the season was almost .200, and was also top 10 in the MLB for feet per fly ball at 304.13. When he connects Grandal hits the ball hard. And this hard hit had all the right pieces. Down late in the game, the ever-so-annoying San Francisco Giants in the even-more-annoying (but gorgeous) AT&T Park with bases loaded; and Yaz smoked this one. It soared over the groaning pumpkins into the black waters of the bay, and nestled firmly into my 2014 Padres season memory.

Splash hits: 69.

Video

Alexi Amarista's birthday present to himself

We all remember the first half of the season and the dumpster fire that it was. The Padres were already on a four-game losing streak, and the Little Ninja Alexi Amarista was still hitless. But that day was Alexi's 25th birthday. Sources say he didn't even hesitate to wish (in Spanish) for his first hit of the season when blowing out his candles; and his wish was granted in the form of a three-run go-ahead HR. It didn't do much other than give us the second win of the season (followed by two more losses), but it was charming and timely enough to boost a little fan confidence that would inevitably be betrayed for the remainder of the year in the most sadistic ways possible.

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Poll
Best hit of 2014!

  28 votes |Results

Jedd Gyorko's sophomore slump

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Gyorko fell victim to the cliched sophomore slump, which is to say that he didn't do well in his second year.

Despite the fact I used the phrase in the title, I don't like the term "sophomore slump." Sure, it's alliterative and rolls off the tongue nicely, but it's too simple. When I hear "sophomore slump," I think random variation getting a guy down. Maybe I'm focusing too much on the "slump" part. What people really refer to when they say the phrase is the phenomenon that rookies who burst onto the scene often struggle in their second year. Jedd Gyorko was such a player.

After accomplishing the whole bursting onto the scene thing as a rookie by hitting 23 home runs in 125 games in 2013, Gyorko followed by being generally terrible in 2014. All the results were worse, but the process was not necessarily broken. Gyorko actually increased his walk rate and decreased his strikeout rate. Unfortunately, a decrease in strength of contact resulted in Gyorko's production being far less than stellar. At the beginning of June, Gyorko was slashing only .162/.213/.270 when the Padresplaced him on the DL for plantar fasciitis. Gyorko was on the 15 day DL until late July which, for those who are counting, was far more than 15 days.

Former Beyond the Box Score writer Stuart Wallace penned a fantastic piece on what effects plantar fasciitis had on Gyorko. As you might expect, the basic idea was that all aspects of baseballing were affected by the injury. I recommend you read the article since Stuart explained it so well, but PF affected Gyorko's swing in multiple ways, which was a likely cause of Gyorko's poor performance.

Because of the timing of his injury, Gyorko's first half split represents time during which he could have been playing injured. His second half split represents time during which he could have been playing healed. The difference is stark.

BB%K%AVGOBPSLGISOBABIPwRC+
1st half5.4%25.3%0.1620.2130.2700.1080.19236
2nd half10.8%19.8%0.2600.3470.3980.1380.313118

When combined with the timing and knowledge of the plantar fasciitis injury, the difference is so large that I find it difficult to accept random variation as the only cause. Occam's razor, right? While on the DL, Gyorko said he spent some time soul-searching (staring at his stats probably wasn't fun) and watching video of his at bats. He apparently found some differences between his 2013 and 2014 at bats. Perhaps whatever he changed helped. Here are his batted ball rates comparing the two "halves."

LD%GB%FB%IFFB%HR/FB
1st half16.6%44.4%39.1%8.5%8.5%
2nd half27.0%42.8%30.3%8.7%10.9%

It looks like Gyorko was able to make much more solid contact after returning from injury. There's some fire behind this smoke.

In addition, Gyorko noted that pitchers were pitching him differently, saying that he was chasing off speed stuff outside more than he should have. He said that word got around.

As 2013 wore on, pitchers threw him more junk to try to avoid his power. However, pitchers slowly increased their fastball percentage to him in early 2014. Perhaps word got around very quickly that Gyorko couldn't do much with any pitch, and it was only later that the injury finally became too much. Here are zone maps comparing 2013 to 2014 showing where pitchers located their offspeed stuff against him.

It does seem a bit like pitchers tried to keep their offspeed stuff out of the zone in 2014 compared to 2013. As far as his swing rates against offspeed stuff out of the zone, I don't think there's much of a difference. Too small a sample size. Gyorko actually swung less in general in 2014 compared to 2013, so that's what shows up, if anything.

Gyorko's 2nd year in the league didn't go very well. Some might blame that on the sophomore slump curse, phenomenon, or whatever you want to call it. I'd blame it on plantar fasciitis.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball.

Kevin Ruprecht is an Editor of Beyond the Box Score. He also writes at Royals Review. You can follow him on Twitter at @KevinRuprecht.

LHP Kim Kwang-Hyun's team may reject Padres' high bid

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Fox Sports reporter Ken Rosenthal is reporting on Twitter that South Korean LHP Kim Kwang-Hyun 's team may reject the Padres' high bid of $2 million for his pitching services.  Kim's team, the SK Wyverns, are expecting somewhere in the vicinity of  $10 million for Kim's contract.

Padres post top bid for Korean lefty Kim Kwang-Hyun | UTSanDiego.com

The Padres have not confirmed the bid.

The two team's numbers are so far apart it's no surprise that the deal might not get done.  Rosenthal explains the reason saying that there are many questions about Kim's  chances of succeeding in the major leagues.  With that said, asking for $10 million sounds more like a ransom request and the Padres' $2 million bid must seem to them like a satchel full of dirty undies.

Kim's posting fee a disappointment | FOX Sports

Kim has been eagerly awaiting this opportunity to pitch in MLB and it appears that is unlikely to happen next season, unless SK does him a huge favor.

Even if they can't close the deal, it's nice to see new Padres GM A.J. Preller and his team hitting the international market hard out of the gate.  Padres making the highest bid?  You don't hear that often enough.  Expect more rumors soon as the GM meetings continue.

Padres working to sign Josh Johnson

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At the end of October the Padres announced that they had declined Josh Johnson's $4 million team option.   The option, created by former GM Josh Byrnes, stated that if Johnson pitched fewer than seven games in 2014 then the Padres could pick him up for the $4M total in 2015.

Johnson's troubles started when he experienced elbow soreness during a Spring Training game earlier in this year. That unrelenting soreness eventually required him to receive his second TJ surgery.  As a result he didn't pitch any games, well under the 7 game milestone.

Just because the Padres declined his option didn't mean they had no interest in him.  Padres beat writer Corey Brock said that he had come to understand that the two would work out a lesser deal between them.  Johnson for his part would like to return to San Diego.

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