The case for the Wil Myers trade to be renamed the Steven Souza trade.
There's a reason the Wil Myers trade is called the Wil Myers trade, right?
I mean, 11 players were traded between three teams and most headlines revolve around Myers becoming a Friar. He's at the very least the poster child of the deal.
This is far from hard-hitting analysis, but Myers is one of those players that is fun to watch. Arguably the centerpiece of the haul that James Shields earned the Rays, he seemed to be well-liked and part of a young corp in Tampa. Not to mention, occasional comparisons to franchise face Evan Longoria, which definitely don't hurt your portfolio.
You (and Jordan Zimmermann) might remember Steven Souza as this fellow:
The 25-year old outfielder is the one that sealed the deal in Jordan Zimmermann's no-hitter in the last game of the season. A lot of this is happenstance, but this is how baseball lore works. Right time; right place or vice versa.
The question still stands; why did Wil Myers get traded? The Rays probably felt very little pressure to deal him away. In fact, it might make more sense at this time to be dealing away players like Evan Longoria and building around Wil Myers. He's still only 24 and has had a 2.4 fWAR season. On top of the additional prospects the Rays acquired, it's because Steven Souza might actually be better.
On May 30, Wil Myers suffered a wrist injury that kept him out of the lineup for the following two months. In the first two months, Myers had a fairly-to-below average .126 ISO. In the previous season, it was a very respectable .186. Since the wrist injury, in only 137 plate appearances, Myers' isolated power dwindled to an abysmal .055. Also, Myers' wOBA took a sizable hit, shrinking from .300 to .235.
Granted, players get better and one can certainly hope for a full recovery from Myers. But wrist injuries are very difficult to recover from fully. For instance, since having surgery on his wrist, Mark Teixeira has had a .182 ISO, down from his career average of .243. Obviously I wouldn't hinge Myers' fate on a comparison to a player a decade older than him, but I do understand the Rays desire to move him.
In contrast, at AA in 2013, Steven Souza had an ISO of .256 in 323 PA. Impressive but just AA you say? Fair point I would reply, but Souza's AAA numbers indicate much the same: .240 ISO, .448 wOBA over 407 PA. And, just to wet your appetite, in a teeny, tiny, eeny, weeny, probably-shouldn't-be-said-it's-so-small sample of 26 PA in the majors, his ISO is .261. Which is much, much higher than Wil Myers.
So, on top of the prospects the Rays got in return from the Padres, the prize of the deal might actually be the outfielder they got from the Washington Nationals. Steven Souza may not have the appeal of once being a top ranked prospect (although he was ranked as high as 10th in the Nationals system by Baseball America) but Rays fans could happily get behind this trade when it works out in their favour. To me, no move this off-season teaches us the power of narrative over statistics better than last week's Wil Myers + 10 other guys that aren't Wil Myers trade.
Larry Reynolds, the agent for Justin Upton, spoke with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio this morning to discuss contract extensions and the lack there of. Reynolds stated that the Atlanta Braves never approached them about a contract extension to keep Upton in Atlanta.
In the short audio clip posted in the tweet above, Reynolds talks about how Upton saw that the Braves were making moves like the one involving sending Jason Heyward to the Cardinals and figured he would be on his way out in a move as well. When the host asks Reynolds about the possibility of contract discussions between Upton and the Padres, Reynolds says "We never say no to anything."
What Reynolds makes expressly clear in the interview is that if any contract negotiations were to take place, it better be in the near future. Reynolds tells them that "We won't want to get in any discussions once Spring Training starts." Reynolds does not want any distractions for Upton as he prepares to take the field for the Padres in his last contract year before hitting Free Agency.
In 2015, Upton is set to make $14.5 million. While the Padres could use his offensive prowess for a few years to go along with Matt Kemp and Wil Myers in this new-look outfield, the 2-time All-Star will cost the Padres a hefty sum if they'll want to keep him past the end of next season.
And according to Reynolds, we might not have to wait long to find out.
Though it is surprising that the Padres are already shopping Myers just days after acquiring him, general manager A.J. Preller's unorthodox methods have been focused on stockpiling assets and then flipping those assets for players who will fill holes at other positions. The team flipped Ryan Hanigan to the Red Sox in order to fill their third base void with Will Middlebrooks, and is likely to continue re-working their roster until they feel that they have a deep, complete product.
Hamels, the prize of the current trade market for starting pitching, has also drawn strong interest from the Dodgers and Red Sox this winter and is thought of as the most valuable veteran piece that the Phillies could move in trades. Philadelphia already shipped Jimmy Rollins to Los Angeles and Antonio Bastardo this winter, so they have indicated that they are finally starting the process of getting younger and breaking up its veteran core.
According to sources, the Padres are dangling Wil Myers for Cole Hamels….
Just when you thought it was safe to go Christmas shopping, young upstart GM AJ Preller is at it again. As first reported by Ryan Lawrence at philly.com, it looks like Wil Myers is in play for Cole Hamels...
I've been tooting this horn for a few days now on twitter, and I think there's legs here. There would need to be more than just Myers, and it would be buying at his low value. That said, he'd certainly fill the handsomeness deficit that a loss of Hamels would leave, and when you have a GM like Preller, who's not afraid to deal?
Watch out, because:
Hamels can't block a trade to San Diego.
He's from there.
We're dealing with a young upstart GM who's not afraid to go for broke...
There are a ton of ways this could go, but of all the rumors so far, this one seems to be something real. Other teams may have more to offer. Ruben may be able to ask for a better deal from someone else. But I'm not sure there's a team out there who's more willing to pay for what they want right now than Preller and the Padres.
The Padres have had discussions about trading for San Diego native Cole Hamels with new outfielder Wil Myers as potential bait, according to a baseball source.
Philly is in dire need of outfielders and the Padres have butt loads of them. Butt. Loads. If you haven't picked it up by now Padres GM A.J. Preller is unorthodox, he'll flip a player like I flip a U-turn on a one way street. We're bad boys.
Hamels doesn't have San Diego listed as a team in his no-trade clause in his contract and is under team control for as many as five years.
@Padres don't have Myers jerseys on sale in the team store. We should all pay close attention this week.
Atlanta Braves President John Hart sits down for a Q&A session with MLB.com's Mark Bowman and discusses a variety of topics including Atlanta's return from the Justin Upton trade.
It was a depth trade. It really helped our system. It might help us short term with Jace Peterson. As we go forward, we picked up what we think are four really good players. In addition, we gained a little more of the international money. We've signed eight guys already with the [$800,000 received via a trade with the Cubs in November]. We've got three more guys we want to get and we were running short on cash. I think this will help us.
An in depth look at Jason Heyward's contract situation by Ben Humphrey over at Viva El Birdos. Cardinals fans naturally are already discussing signing Heyward long term to a team-friendly deal. However, as was the case in Atlanta, would Heyward consider such a deal this close to free agency?
The San Diego Padres have been the busiest team of the offseason and are reportedly considering flipping the newly acquired Wil Myers to Philadelphia for starting pitcher Cole Hamels.
Speaking of the Padres, SB Nation's Grant Brisbee takes a look at San Diego's wild offseason.
This offseason, though. This incredible, maniacal, unexpected offseason. I'm not sure I agree with every move the Padres have made and are planning to make. But this Padres team is a presence on the offseason. They're affecting everything. They're bidding up free agents and making wild trades. The old Padres were Charlie Brown, forever losing and mumbling "I can't stand it" with their heads down. The new Padres still might get their Sopwith Camel shot up, but at least they're tangling with the Red Baron.
Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro speaking on a radio interview admitted that he had told first baseman Ryan Howard that the team "was better off without him."
More on Gavin Floyd, plus the Padres revel in their pile of fresh new outfielders.
It's Christmas week, and I've run out of stupid jokes about how many days are left to finish your shopping. So yeah, let's get on with the baseball news:
First things first: Yeison Asencio clearly does not figure into the Padres' plans for 2015. This much was apparent even before general manager A.J. Preller took the baseball world by storm in acquiring Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton. Despite a solid season split between the AA San Antonio Missions and the AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, Asencio was deemed unworthy of a spot on the 40-man roster and was designated for assignment in late November. He cleared waivers and was outrighted to El Paso, where he'll spend his first full AAA season, barring a trade or some other unforeseen circumstances.
In just about any other era of Padres baseball, Yeison Asencio would have an outside shot at making the team with a strong showing in spring training. This is not to say that Asencio is ready for the bigs and being blocked, just that there have been a lot of years when someone who wasn't ready to play in the majors ended up doing just that. Unfortunately for him, but fortunately for Friars fans, 2015 is not one of those years.
Even though his 2014 season wasn't enough to earn a spot on anyone's 40-man roster, he did put together better-than-average offensive numbers at both levels, and showed some encouraging signs of growth. His season stats are in line with his career numbers despite an early slump that he spent the first two months of the season climbing out of. This is readily evident when looking at his day-by-day batting average.
The vertical blue line marks the date of Asencio's promotion to El Paso, with the red line representing his BA in AAA alone. His strong start there, which will be covered in more detail later in this post, gave him a slight uptick in his overall numbers, which you can see above in his black-line batting average above, as well as in his on-base percentage.
Around the halfway point of his season, Asencio's OBP synched up with his BA, each rising slightly at the same rate. He collected more walks in the second half, but not at the expense of hits. That his walk rate increased as his batting average did the same suggests that it was a result of better pitch selection as opposed to a more timid approach. While his lack of patience leaves much to be desired, he seems to be trudging ever-so-slightly in the right direction.
# of games
BA
OBP
Diff.
25
.188
.233
.045
50
.251
.277
.026
75
.281
.307
.036
100
.280
.319
.039
125
.291
.329
.038
138
.291
.329
.038
During Asencio's early-season travails, he racked up strikeouts at a much higher rate than usual and fell into a rut during which he was seemingly incapable of taking a base on balls. Once he settled in and began hitting, his strikeouts became fewer and farther between, and his free trips to first came more frequently. Or possibly I've transposed the chicken and the egg. Either way, the improvements went hand-in-hand.
# of games
K%
BB%
25
20.0
5.6
50
16.8
3.1
75
14.6
3.3
100
12.8
4.7
125
11.6
4.8
138
11.5
4.9
His strikeout rate of 11.7% in AA was considerably better than the Texas League average of 20.1%; his 10.5% mark in El Paso was also far better than the PCL's overall 19.9% rate. However, his tendency to walk paled in comparison to league averages; he walked 4.9% of the time in AA, and 4.7% of the time with the Chihuahuas, both well short of the 8.7% which was the average in each league. This explains why his OBP in San Antonio was just .001 higher than the league average of .322, despite his BA being .034 points above the league average.
On the other hand, Asencio's SLG in AA was .036 points better than the Texas League average of .373. His AAA numbers in both regards were well above the Pacific Coast League averages, but his hot streak in a small sample size renders that all but moot.
Asencio's power game took even longer to warm up than his singles stroke. He started the season with exactly 100 homerless plate appearances before he broke the seal on May 5, in his twenty-eighth game. His slow start really bogged down his season stats; his overall numbers look far more impressive if you pretend his season started that day.
G
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
BB%
K
K%
BA
OBP
SLG
First 100 PA
27
100
95
6
19
2
0
0
3
5
5.0
19
19.0
.200
.240
.221
After that
112
472
441
61
137
23
3
15
56
23
4.9
47
10.0
.311
.347
.478
Overall
138
572
536
67
156
25
3
15
59
28
4.9
66
11.5
.291
.330
.443
He finished May strong and began June accordingly before he fell into an even longer No Homers Club streak. Asencio played 33 games between his sixth and seventh home runs of the season, from June 13 through July 22. He did hit nine doubles in that span -- including three in one game, on July 11 -- as opposed to the two he hit before his first homer, so his SLG and ISO (isolated power; the difference between one's BA and SLG, expressing how many extra bases he earns per at-bat) only suffered minimally. Following that power outage, Yeison kept hitting until season's end, improving his rate stats across the board.
After his second home run drought ended and he put things together, Asencio's SLG continued to climb even as his BA normalized.
# of games
BA
SLG
ISO
25
.188
.212
.024
50
.251
.353
.102
75
.281
.403
.122
100
.280
.395
.105
125
.291
.424
.133
138
.291
.433
.142
The large rise between his hundredth and hundred-twenty-fifth game was aided dually by the end of his homer-free streak and by the tear he got off to immediately after being promoted to AAA. Asencio got the call to report to El Paso on August 11 to take the place of Rymer Liriano, who received his first big league call-up. Yeison singled two times in as many at-bats in his Chihuahuas debut, then added a double, a homer, and another single the next day, in his first start for the club. He homered and singled yet again in his third game before "only" singling in each of his next three games. Asencio's streak of games without an extra-base hit reached nine before he doubled on August 24, but he righted ship and closed out the season on a very strong note. In the final six games of the Chihuahuas' season, Asencio went 12-for-25 (.480 BA) with two doubles and three home runs (.920 SLG).
BA
SLG
ISO
AA (117 G)
.284
.409
.125
AAA (21 G)
.333
.568
.235
Even with his two long homerless streaks, Asencio still had a better-than-average ISO when he closed the book on his AA season. His .125 mark in San Antonio edged out the Texas League average of .122, while the .235 he posted in his small AAA sample size far outpaced the Pacific Coast League's .151 average.
The 2015 season will be a telling one for Asencio. While he showed growth in his brief taste of AAA, it will take more than just growth to catch anyone's eye. It will take a breakout season, and even that might not be enough; the Pacific Coast League is a notorious hitter's environment, so numbers that look impressive on the surface are often hollow. One of the greatest hindrances to his progress continues to be his lack of patience at the plate. A retooled approach seems to be in order, as his walk rate is consistently well below average and he doesn't hit for an obscenely high enough average or slug for enough extra bases to compensate for it. Without such an epiphany, he seems doomed to your classic AAAA mold: someone who hops from organization to organization, putting up impressive numbers in AAA and getting called up for a handful of games when emergencies arise, just so as to not use up the real prospects' service time. It's a tag that has been placed on many a man, but it's not necessarily the kiss of death. Just ask Jose Bautista. No, seriously, ask him; he probably already follows you on Twitter.
Regardless of whether he sets the PCL on fire or just continues to be a bit better than most of those around him, any real shot at the big leagues that Asencio receives will most likely come for another club. The odds of him seeing time with the star-studded 2015 Padres are beyond slim, and if it were to happen it would almost undoubtedly be to briefly keep a roster spot warm for a day or two in the case of injuries and/or bereavement leave, while other arrangements were being made, after which he would be unceremoniously designated for assignment. Either way, Asencio's second year with the Chihuahuas will essentially be an audition for the rest of baseball. He has as much or more to prove the other 29 teams as he does to prove the Padres, as he was passed over by everyone twice in the span of two weeks, both when he was on waivers and in the Rule 5 draft.
Even though the major league Padres should provide excitement and entertainment galore in 2015, it will still be interesting to keep an eye on Asencio down on the farm. That is, if he's still in the organization when the season breaks; life is very unpredictable, and life is even more unpredictable when A.J. Preller is your general manager.
All basic statistics are from Asencio's Baseball Reference page, with additional information culled from examination of his 2014 game log. Additional calculations (no pun intended) and graphic representations thereof were rendered by *points thumbs at self* this guy. Notes 1 -- Notes 2 -- Notes 3
Chris wonders how good the Padres can be this upcoming season, with all the headline making moves they've made in recent weeks.
Editors Note: This is a discussion topic that was presented in our listserv and in the comment section of David's post on Friday. I thought it was an interesting topic for discussion and thus forced Chris to post this as an article for further discussion. Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle came out with an article today comparing the Astros to the Padres and how it fits in with this discussion topic in regards to what the Padres are going to get out of their way of rebuilding. which this post is focused on.
Via Drellich's article, Ken Rosenthal suggested that other organizations should be embarrassed by their rebuild in comparison to the Padres current method. Drellich also made a comparable Astros prospect package to what the Padres gave up for one year of Justin Upton. I behoove you to go read the article then join the discussion here. -Tim
Am I the only person in the world that still doesn't think the Padres will be very good? They've upgraded their offense, I guess, but their outfield defense is going to STINK. But:
Myers was a disaster last season, and it does make one wonder why he's been traded twice so far.
Kemp has arthritic hips. That's not a condition that suggests he won't regress, and quickly, from his peak, which may very well have been a couple years ago.
The Padres still field Alonso, Gyorko, Barmes, and Solarte in their lineup. Not exactly murderer's row. If Myers continues to struggle, opposing pitchers really only have to worry about Kemp and Upton in that lineup, then they can coast. Maybe Norris...if he can sustain that high BABIP from 2014.
The pitching rotation is good, but can it compare to the Giants or the Dodgers? Shoot, I'd put 'em up against the Dbacks rotation and call it a push.
Last I checked, that division still has the reigning World Series champs and the richest team in baseball. Have the Dodgers and Giants suddenly been pushed back as favorites in favor of the Padres? I bet Vegas thinks not.
Speaking of the rotation, by dealing Yasmani Grandal and acquiring Derek Norris, the Padres traded away the 8th-best pitch framer in baseball in 2014 in favor of the 75th-best. Per Stat Corner, that amounts to a 16-run drop off in defensive value, or 2 wins, rounding up. Is Norris' offense 2 wins better than Grandal's? In 2014 it wasn't. To me, looks like Billy Beane recognized Norris' deficiency - presumptive replacement Stephen Vogt isn't the framer that Grandal is, but he's at least worth positive RAA.
So my take is that this is the case of a new GM making a splash - he seems to be treating the Padres the way I have treated my Fantasy keeper league team this off-season. Remember when Jack Zduriencik traded for Kendry Morales, Mike Morse, extended Felix (duh), and signed Raul Ibanez, Aaron Harang, and Joe Saunders all in one off-season and everybody talked about what a freaking genius he was? They ended up going 71-91 that season and all the shine rubbed off by the end and people questioned if he knew what he was doing. I don't see this situation as much different.
To me, it looks like the Padres took on an ocean-liner-full of short-term risk for a very dubious chance at even making the playoffs, and have mortgaged their depth to do so. Basically, it's the opposite of the Astros' strategy, and I wish every other non-Astros club would adopt it, because I don't think it will work.
Can I end this post right there? My producer is shaking his head "no." So I'll need to come up with at least a couple of other talking points on the subject.
Let's give one of those old-fashioned blind taste tests a try. One player will be the aforementioned Maybin, and the other will be the player central to the debate in the first place - Aaron Hicks. You're going to know who is who, but that doesn't matter. Which guy would you prefer?
Player
Salary
2015 Age
PA
ISO
BB%
SO%
AVG
OBP
SLG
fWAR
Player A
$5,000,000
28
2,068
.119
7.6
22.8
.246
.309
.365
8.2
Player B
$500,000
25
538
.111
11.2
26.0
.201
.293
.313
-0.7
Does anyone actually want Player A? Maybe you do. I'll give you just one reason why I'd support such a move.
While Hicks (Player B, in case you were still trying to figure that out) still has the look of a player who could provide more long-term value than Maybin (Player A), I can understand the desire to protect Hicks until the organization is convinced that he's ready to go. The Twins haven't exactly been stingy with using Hicks these last couple of seasons, and you'd be hard pressed to watch him play and come away believing he was ready to face Major League pitching.
Maybe that's because he's not ready. But sure, you could also argue it's because he'll never be ready to face Major League pitching. We can't say for certain either way.
So: if you think that starting Hicks in Triple-A to start 2015 is the best thing for his development, then yes - the team will need another outfielder. Preferably it would be one who is legitimately good at something useful, like Peter Bourjos (defense) or Jon Jay (all-around), but if it takes Maybin - who strikes me as not that much more reliable than Hicks in spite of four times the experience - to protect Hicks for the long haul, then okay. I can get behind that.
Maybin is owned $10 million over the next two seasons. That's very likely more than he'll be worth on the field, but if it offers Hicks some form of buffer against his long-term success then he would be worth it. It's not like $5 million over each of the next two years will stop the Twins from doing anything.
If, on the other hand, you A) think Hicks is ready as he'll ever be but just want another outfielder, or B) just want another outfielder, I'm not convinced. Steamer projects Maybin to be worth 0.1 fWAR in 2015, while Hicks pulls in at 0.2 fWAR. In terms of 2015 value, these guys look like a push - with Maybin having the higher floor and Hicks the higher ceiling.
Would you trade for Cameron Maybin, considering the excess of outfielders the Padres now have? Or would it be a waste? Or will the Padress want to keep Maybin anyway, just in case they flip Wil Myers for Cole Hamels?
The Red Sox weren't going to have it easy with Hamels to begin with. The Padres only make things that much more difficult.
The Red Sox don't need an ace, but it sure would be lovely if they had one atop their rotation in 2015 and beyond if possible. The extra security an ace provides in terms of both innings and production is welcome to any rotation, but especially one with some of the question marks Boston's has. That's why, even though trade discussions for Cole Hamels haven't necessarily gone their way, they haven't been ended entirely: the price could always drop to a point where it would make sense for the Sox and their needs. You can read that as, "the price could always drop to a point where the Sox could get Cole Hamels without giving up Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart."
That is likely what the Red Sox were hoping for, but it's probably an impossibility for them now. That's because the Padres have entered the Cole Hamels' bidding, and unlike the Cubs, unlike the Dodgers, and unlike anyone else who has asked about Hamels in the last few months, the Padres need him. Not only that, they have the pieces to bring him to San Diego, and they aren't even on Hamels' no-trade list. This complicates things for the Red Sox, whose best chance at Hamels on their terms has always been about their being the only legitimate trade partner.
This isn't just being said because the Padres made trades for Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, and Derek Norris work. They managed to acquire all of those players without giving up any of their three best prospects in Austin Hedges, Matt Wisler, and Hunter Renfroe. They still have Rymer Liriano, who could probably be a starting outfielder (or at least given the chance to be) for quite a few teams right now, but is behind five or six players in San Diego at the moment. They still have depth besides that in their system even after those trades: it's not as much as they had before them, of course, but the major-league team looks considerably better both now and in the future, and that's what matters. The Padres now look like they are an ace away from being legitimate threats to everyone in the National League, instead of just a potential wild card contender if some things go their way.
Not trading Hedges means he's still available to be moved. Red Sox fans know from Boston's own negotiations with the Phillies that they are looking for a young catcher, thanks to the names of Blake Swihart and Christian Vazquez coming up repeatedly. While the Sox would like to keep one (or both) going forward, the Padres don't need Hedges at all. They have Norris on the team now, and he's signed through 2018: he's not the best catcher around, but he's productive enough to justify shipping Hedges' east as a major piece for Hamels. The Phillies lack quality outfielders, whether they are veterans or youth, and the Padres have Liriano in addition to guys who need a second chance like Cameron Maybin. As a rebuilding club, the Phillies are in a position to take on someone like Maybin, or Carlos Quentin, or Seth Smith, or even first baseman Yonder Alonso if they think they can wring something out of them or flip them for more help down the line. None of those players would be the centerpiece of the deal, but they don't have to be if the Padres are willing to include guys like Hedges and Liriano.
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The other key thing to remember is that the Padres are more likely to deal their prospects than the Red Sox, if only for reasons of familiarity. A.J. Preller is the brand new general manager of the Padres, who inherited a farm system left by former GMs Jed Hoyer and Josh Byrnes. Preller was hired because of his work in player development and international scouting: he has his own opinions of prospects, and his own ability to secure new ones. In addition to Preller, the Padres also added longtime Dodgers' player development guru Logan White to the front office: they're serious about reevaluating and rebuilding the system the way they want it, with the players they want in it.
The Padres aren't going to just give prospects away under Preller, but it's easy to believe he doesn't have the same ties to the prospects in his care that Cherington and Co. do in Boston, with the players they drafted, signed, and developed themselves over the past few years. This might not sound like it matters, but think of how many new general managers go out and pick up reclamation projects they have ties to from a previous gig. A player being one of your guys matters, and it's the kind of little thing that could give the Padres an edge for Hamels: none of their prospects are Preller guys. Hamels would be a Preller guy if the Padres traded for him, as well as the most significant get of his young career.
Hamels would also make the Padres legitimate contenders, and they haven't been that coming into a season since Kevin Towers was in charge. In the late-90s. The post-Kevin Brown world has not been kind to them, okay? Padres fans were about as downtrodden as could be coming into this winter, after dealing with rights negotiations that kept their team off their televisions, multiple changes in ownership and financial capabilities that at one point made a payroll in the $50 million range sound like progress, a dream GM choosing to work with the Cubs, his replacement not getting the big-league team anywhere, disappointing seasons during all but one year of the current decade, and more and more injuries to players both young and old. Adding Kemp, Myers, Norris, and even Will Middlebrooks has gotten the attention of the city, and adding Hamels now will help justify all these moves in even the most hardened of prospect-loving minds. It's not something Red Sox fans are used to given the constant adulation -- or, at least, attention -- paid their team, but the Sox haven't been through a stretch like the Padres have been living in for quite some time, either. Even if they like to pretend things are that bad sometimes.
The Padres have plenty of on-the-field reasons to trade for Hamels. They have off-the-field ones as well, both in the front office and for the sake of a fanbase they need to recapture. The Red Sox are not nearly as desperate, even if they could use Hamels. That's fine for them -- they shouldn't overpay for him or panic just because someone else might land an ace they could have. It is something to remember, though, the next time you believe that if the Sox just wait a little longer, the Hamels' deal they want will come to them. It might not be there anymore, not with the Padres around. It's a weird sentence to read, sure, but that's how things work now.
This day 20 years ago, the Padres re-signed free agent Bip Roberts. It was Roberts' second taste of free agency; both times resulted in him signing with San Diego.
The first time Roberts hit the free agent market was after the 1993 season. He had spent the past two seasons with the Reds after being traded by the Padres for Randy Myers following the 1991 season. Bip was an All-Star for Cincinnati in 1992, but had an injury-abbreviated and otherwise underwhelming '93 season, making him a classic Padres buy-low candidate as well as a classic Padres bring-back candidate.
Bip bounced back in the strike-shortened 1994 season. He slashed .320/ .383/ .397 with 21 steals while playing in 105 of the 108 games played that season. That was enough to earn his first multi-year contract; he signed for $4.8 million over two years. He only stuck around San Diego for one of those years; he was traded to Kansas City just 363 days later in a deal for Wally Joyner.
When that two-year deal expired, Roberts signed with the Tigers. Detroit's general manager at that point was Randy Smith - the same Randy Smith who signed Roberts's last contract. Some people just know what they like.
The San Diego Padres have been very busy collecting right-handed power this offseason. How does their park really affect right-handed hitters? What can we expect to change for their new acquisitions?
Wow. I think that one word sums up the flurry of moves the Padres have made in the last couple of weeks to turn their team from one of the worst offensive teams in baseball to one that is competitive. By adding Justin Upton, Derek Norris, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Will Middlebrooks, they are demonstrating that they are in love with power-hitting righties. They already had Jedd Gyorko, a right-handed slugging second baseman. All of these guys can hit the ball hard, strike out way too much, and bat from the right side.
Here's the problem with all of that: everyone knows Petco Park is a pitcher's paradise, a place where power goes to die and hitters leave frustrated. So, do the Padres know something we don't about their park, especially for right-handed power? Let's dive into some park factors and stats and try to characterize just what Petco does to these types of hitters.
This table shows the Fangraphs Guts park factors for Petco and the parks that the newest Padres came from, for comparison. 100 is league average, so Petco is clearly suppressing offense overall. It has the lowest basic park factor of this group (also second lowest in baseball, behind only AT&T Park). It suppresses homers, singles, and doubles while giving a small boost to triples, but not like the boost in Oakland or Tampa. Strikeouts, walks and grounders are just above average. Basically, all types of offense are reduced by this park. That's obviously not good news for the newcomers, but let's turn our focus to right-handed hitters specifically.
Basic
1B
2B
3B
HR
SO
BB
GB
FB
LD
IFFB
Petco Park
94
98
95
102
96
102
101
101
98
98
95
Dodger Stadium
96
99
98
75
102
100
98
100
100
98
108
Tropicana Field
95
98
95
104
95
101
100
98
101
99
110
Oakland Coliseum
97
99
99
107
92
99
101
99
101
101
107
Turner Field
99
100
99
94
99
103
100
98
99
102
96
Fenway Park
104
102
114
100
95
100
101
102
98
105
102
The table below shows the right-handed park factors for these same stadiums. Hmmm. Interesting. Suddenly, Petco looks a lot closer to the other stadiums in singles, doubles, and triples (especially Dodger Stadium and Tropicana). It no longer looks significantly worse than the other parks, except in homers, which got even worse. It was fourth worst on the previous table for homers, but is now the worst by a safe margin. That's not good for our sluggers.
1B as R
2B as R
3B as R
HR as R
Petco Park
97
92
111
91
Dodger Stadium
97
97
71
100
Tropicana Field
97
92
113
93
Oakland Coliseum
99
99
91
96
Turner Field
101
98
97
97
Fenway Park
104
113
88
102
Let's take a look at the park itself. This image, from hittrackeronline.com, shows all home runs hit in PETCO in 2014 overlaid on a map of the park with distance lines drawn on it.
From this map, we can see why righties have it harder hitting homers than lefties. Lefties have that little cut-out area right down the first base line and they seem to take advantage of it, judging by the number of dots in that little area. This was helped greatly by the fence move in early 2013, which turned Petco from the worst homer park for lefties in all of baseball, to an above average one.
Righties do not have such an area in left field. It's just a flat wall, except for a tiny little upper deck corner (Western Metal Supply Building Porch) that extends over the wall. It looks like right-handed hitters have attacked that very small corner as much as possible, but it is still 335 feet away from the plate, while that little spot in right field down the line is 322 feet and is much larger. Also, the fence move had no impact on right handed homers, according to park factors from 2012 and 2014.
Now, I could show you park overlays for all of the above parks on top of PETCO, but I will let you do that on your own. Instead, I will just show Turner Field overlaid onto the previous image.
I'm a little surprised too. What happened here? It looks like Turner Field is actually worse for homers for both lefties and righties, but the park factors say otherwise. What is going on? Well, first we have to account for wall height. Petco's left field wall is 4 feet high, while Turner's is only 8 feet. Wait, what? That can't be right, isn't that backwards? So, it's not wall height, it's not entirely the distance from home, what else is going on here?
The marine layer that settles in on San Diego on a nearly nightly basis may be to blame, but it's not clear. We can all agree that home runs really get hurt by Petco, so I expect big power reductions from all of the new sluggers in their new home. I would reduce their homer projections by 10-20%, but be careful not to reduce their average or on-base numbers too much, since Petco isn't nearly as hard on singles, doubles, and triples as it is on homers. Also, with all these good hitters in the same lineup, I would not be surprised to see run and RBI increases for all of these guys except Kemp, who was in an all-star heavy lineup last year.
Also, to address some very interesting thoughts posed by our Fake Teams leader, I thought I would discuss park factors a little. Ray mentions that Padres hitters were terrible in 2014 and that might be bringing down the park factors for the whole park. I think park factors are more complex than that and attempt to account for the offensive abilities of the home team, so I decided to dig into it a bit.
Look at what happened to Petco's park factor when they moved the fences in. The basic park factor went from 92 in 2012 to 94 in 2013. That increase is clearly due to the fence move, as are the significant increases in left-handed home run park factors since 2012. In 2014, the basic factor was again 94, even though the Padres offense was worse in 2014 than in 2013 (146 HR down to 109 in 2014, for example). The Red Sox offense took a huge step back in 2014 (219 fewer runs than 2013!!), but Fenway's basic park factor remained at 104 in both years. In the highest scoring year in recent Red Sox history (2003, 961 runs), the basic park factor was actually lower at 102. At least at Fangraphs, the home team's offense does not seem to have any effect on the park factors, as it is accounted for. Therefore, I do believe Petco will hurt all of these new hitters.
One final note that you may or may not find interesting:
Early afternoon games at Petco, as my co-worker Joe who lived in San Diego tells me often, are dangerous for pitchers because the lack of a marine layer early in the day may allow balls to fly further out than usual, leading to more hits and homers. Now, this is purely anecdotal, but I did get burned a few times starting Ian Kennedy or Tyson Ross last season in early afternoon games, so I'm at least curious. Next time, I'm going to do some research and see if this is a thing or not. It might be very useful when setting lineups and especially for daily leagues. That's all for now! Tschus!
The 34-year old may not want to pitch in Miami, and the Marlins may use that to their advantage.
When they acquired Dan Haren from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Marlins knew that he had threatened to retire if he was not going to be pitching on the West Coast in 2015. The Marlins invited Haren to Marlins Park for an introductory press conference last Friday, however Haren opted not to attend. Miami has reportedly considered trading Haren, and according to FOX Sports' Jon Morosi, a deal that would send Haren to San Diego for an outfielder in possible.
Miami had one of baseball's best outfields in 2014, and with a healthy Giancarlo Stanton should be just as productive next season. The organization only has three outfielders (their starters) on the 40-man roster, but did extend a spring training invitation to Cole Gillespie, who has notable experience. If the Marlins were limited to sending Haren to either San Diego or Los Angeles, the Padres would likely make the most sense. A reunion with Cameron Maybin could be plausible, but the Marlins may pursue Will Venable.
In a fourth outfielder, the Marlins would most likely be seeking a left-handed hitter to complement Marcell Ozuna in center field. A platoon situation would not necessarily be the result, however Ozuna at times appears lost at the plate and might benefit from an occasional off day with a right-handed pitcher on the mound. Venable posted a .224/.288/.325 batting line to complement eight home runs and 33 RBIs in 2014. He signed a two-year, $8.5 million contract heading into last October, and would not be among the more expensive options.
The Marlins have always liked Maybin, however the organization was quick to trade him after he failed to produce consistently. Maybin posted a .235/.290/.331 batting line in 2014, and might not benefit from not receiving regular starting time. Seth Smith is a versatile piece the Marlins can pursue too.
Although they would like to have Haren in the rotation in 2015, the Marlins received his full salary from the Dodgers. The club added Mat Latos and David Phelps this offseason, and using the Dodgers' cash to add a fourth outfielder might prove to be more valuable than having Haren starting.
He's no longer the longest-tenured Padre. He's now the shortest-tenured Twin.
With his contract up at the end of the 2014 season, it was uncertain whether Tim Stauffer's time with the Padres would continue once again or if it would come to an end. I, along with many others, hoped that Preller would find a way to keep Stauffer on the team, but the more time went on the less likely it seemed that our wishes would be granted. And sure enough, our dreams were crushed today as the Twins announced they have signed the former longest-tenured Padres to a one-year contract worth $2.2 million, putting their roster at a full 40 players.
Stauffer had spent his entire career up to this point playing in the Padres organization. Since being drafted in 2003, he bounced back and forth between the minors and big league club in between DL stints, and valiantly pitched pretty much wherever the team needed him; whether it be in long relief, in the rotation, or as a spot starter. Though he had his ups and downs, he became a mostly reliable member of the Padres pitching staff over the years, not to mention a fan favorite and a well-loved teammate.
Hopefully Stauffer finds success in Minnesota. And hopefully he finds his way back to the Padres some day.
Back in early June, when polled, 75% of you never wanted to see Will Venable in a Padres uniform ever again. On the contrary 93% of you wanted to keep Seth Smith. Well the Orioles might be interested in trading for both players as platoon outfielders. You'll have to take the good with the bad.
I'm thrilled at the continued roster turnover, even rumors get me excited. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that all the stagnating players on the roster will be flushed by Opening Day. After Tim Stauffer's deal with the Twins, Will Venable is now the longest tenured Padre, but hopefully not for long.
The Padres need to move some outfielders, and left-handed hitters Seth Smith and Will Venable are drawing the most interest from the Orioles.
One team source said the Padres were inquiring about Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, who have been on every team's wish list in potential trades. Obviously, that wasn't happening. But in a month, if the Padres are still looking to move outfielders, the Orioles would have bargaining power.
The weird thing about the Seth Smith extension, other than most people didn't like it, was that there was an unwritten agreement between the Padres and Smith at the time. Jon Heyman reported that the Padres made a handshake agreement that they wouldn't trade him.
The 2-year $13 million extension came right after former GM Josh Bynres was fired and there were three baseball operations employees acting as the GM. A.J. Hinch, now Astros manager, I believe made the agreement. Smith must have known that Hinch wouldn't be in the GM position for long, you'd have to wonder if the no-trade agreement came from above and if the Padres will honor it or will just dismiss it since nothing was in writing.
I love me some Rickey, and I hope he has the happiest birthday, but I'm happier for myself right now because I saw that picture. How great is that?
The two have a history, one that undoubtedly predates Rickey's first stint with the Padres, back in 1996 and most of '97. Henderson headed back for a second go-round in 2001 after time with the Angels, A's (for the fourth time), Mets, and Mariners. It was his last season with more than a hundred games played, and he accidentally hedged in on the last day of Tony's career by collecting his three-thousandth hit.
Aw, what the hey, let's bask in it.
Happy birthday, Rickey, and have a merry Christmas, too. It's cool to me that somebody with this birthday got so big and made enough money that he never has to worry about only getting half as many presents as everyone else.
I was mildly surprised when I noticed that Dustin Moseley turns 33 today. I guess the past few years have seemed a lot longer. That, and for some reason, I thought Moseley was already around 33 back during his San Diego days.
Moseley was one of the few bright spots on the uninspiring 2011 Padres team, right up until his season was cut short by a season-ending dislocation of his left (non-throwing) shoulder. It was an exacerbation of a preexisting injury; he first dislocated it earlier that month. The fact that he was at the plate both times, combined with the league-worst run-support he received, almost makes the blasphemous case for a universal DH. Almost.
He was back and ready to go at the onset of spring training for the 2012 season and pitched well in exhibition games. He was inked in as the number-three starter once again but made just one regular-season start, after which he felt some strangeness in his other shoulder. He was immediately placed on the 15-day disabled list, then transferred to the 60-day iteration when it was learned that he would require season-ending surgery. Not only did Moseley miss the rest of (essentially all of) the 2012 season, he was released at season's end and also remained sidelined throughout the entirety of 2013.
Mose finally made it back to the field last season, over two years after he last pitched competitively. He signed a minor league deal with the Marlins. Moseley made one start in A-ball, then moved up to AA, where he made five starts until his season was felled by, yes, a shoulder injury. He's now a free agent once again.
Best of luck to Dustin Moseley in his thirty-fourth year. If anyone were due for some, it's him.
Johnny Cueto will not talk about a contract extension after the season begins. - MLB
viva el stuff...
Joe has started a new series of posts looking at the scouting reports of Cardinals past and present (but mostly past). Here is a look at Mike Matheny. - Viva el Birdos And from today, some guy named Albert Pujols. You might have heard of him. - Viva el Birdos
In the fanposts, Ben Cerutti looks at an inexpensive pitching option. - Viva el Birdos
Nick Lampe looks at the Cardinals defense in recent years. He is a new member, so put on pants and be, you know, welcoming. - Viva el Birdos
Don't forget to listen to Episode 12 of the Viva el Birdos podcast! - Viva el Podcast
Today marks 20 years since the monumental 12-player trade between the Padres and the Astros took place. The sheer quantity of players involved would still be noteworthy, but the fact that 11 of the players (everyone except the player to be named later) were already major leaguers is what made the swap one for the ages. Either way, as noted by the New York Times a day after the trade, the 12 players involved were the most since a 13-player deal between the Tigers and Athletics in 1957.
The Padres -- barely a year removed from the infamous fire sale of 1993 -- were under new ownership and looking to improve from the outside, and willing to take on salary to do so. They ran into a logical partner with the Astros, who were looking to clear some money off the books. From the same Times article:
The general managers, Bob Watson of Houston and Randy Smith of San Diego, began discussing this trade at the general managers meetings in Phoenix in mid-November.
"As we got closer to new ownership, Larry Lucchino and I talked," Smith said from San Diego. "They were prepared to add some salary if I felt it could improve the club. We kept adding to it and put it to bed yesterday."
Although Smith and Watson worked out the details, Lucchino said he and Tal Smith, the Astros' new president and Randy's father, agreed to it on Tuesday. Watson chose to view the deal from the baseball viewpoint rather than the economic one, although it has been widely known that the Astros were out to make serious inroads into their $30.5 million payroll. They already had traded Pete Harnisch, a $3 million pitcher.
The highest-paid player in the deal, All-Star third baseman Ken Caminiti, was due to make slightly more in 1995 than all of the players being acquired by Houston.
As you can see, Houston sent out over twice as much 1995 salary commitment as they took on. Each team got what they paid for, both immediately and over the course of the next several years. While WAR isn't the end-all, be-all, it works here for an at-a-glance overview.
The Padres received thrice the production from their returns, both in 1995 alone and over the course of the players' tenures with their new clubs. More telling than numbers, however, is the impact Caminiti and Finley had on the Padres. Both won their first Gold Glove awards in 1995, then had huge offensive campaigns for the 1996 National League West champions, with Caminiti taking home the NL MVP award. They kept on raking in the free world in 1997 and '98, and were integral in the latter year's team reaching the World Series.
When Caminiti and Finley left via free agency following the 1998 season, the rest of the players San Diego received were long-gone. Brian Williams walked as a free agent after 1995, and Cedeno was traded to Detroit along with Brad Ausmus in 1996, shortly after Petagine was sent to the Mets for Pete Walker (who would appear in just one game for the Padres).
Bell and Gutierrez stuck with the Astros the longest; each spent five years, through the 1999 season. Plantier was traded back to the Padres during the 1995 season, as was Martinez after it, and Brocail was dealt to Detroit after the 1996 season in a deal for Brad Ausmus and others.
One recurring theme amongst the players involved in this trade is that the majority of them returned from whence they came. Of the players the Padres sent to Houston, only Derek Bell didn't return to the Padres. "The other" Pedro Martinez and Ricky Gutierrez are kind of technicalities; Martinez was traded back to San Diego in October 1995 for Ray Holbert, but was sent to the Mets two months later, and Gutierrez spent the last 11 games of his career with San Diego's AAA affiliate in Portland in 2006. Brocail, Plantier, and Shipley did see on-field action with the Padres again, though. The Astros traded Plantier back to the Padres for Rich Loiselle and Jeff Tabaka on July 19, 1995 for his second of three stints with the team. Shipley returned to San Diego via free agency after the 1995 season, as did Brocail after the 2005 season.
Of the five major league players the Astros dealt the Padres, three eventually returned to Houston. Andujar Cedeno was the first; he got into three games in late 1996 after being acquired in a conditional deal with Detroit. Both Williams and Caminiti signed with the Astros as free agents before the 1999 season.
With a different twist of fate here or there, this trade could have involved a full dozen players with major league service time on their resume. Sean Fesh, the PTBNL who was sent to the Padres organization the next summer to complete the trade, had a number of good seasons at AAA for a number of clubs, but never got the call. While his inclusion in this trade cements his status as a historical footnote, Fesh did have a productive 17-year career in the minors. I'd get into more detail, but he deserves a post of his own. That and I know I'd get carried away if I started now, and a thousand words is probably enough before breakfast. Two thousand words, if you count that photo of Cammy; you know what they say pictures are worth.
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During Asencio's early-season travails, he racked up strikeouts at a much higher rate than usual and fell into a rut during which he was seemingly incapable of taking a base on balls. Once he settled in and began hitting, his strikeouts became fewer and farther between, and his free trips to first came more frequently. Or possibly I've transposed the chicken and the egg. Either way, the improvements went hand-in-hand./assets.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2528912/00000a13.0.jpg)
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