Barring any unforeseen moves between now and the end of spring training, 2015 will be Goebbert's second season with the Chihuahuas. He split last year between three clubs; he started with Oakland's AAA team in Sacramento, headed to El Paso after being acquired in a deal for Kyle Blanks, then bounced between there and San Diego after making his major league debut. Between his three stops, he performed best in red and black.
One of the reasons this year's FanFest has been delayed until April is that Petco Park is being turned into a monster truck arena/motocross course/Luke Yoder's worst nightmare. Today we got our first glimpse of the ballpark's SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY* look, courtesy of Wayne Partello.
Of course, it's not really Monster Jam without a mullet in the house, so Andrew Cashner took the field to play a little catch. Sadly, he didn't throw from the new extra-high mounds.
I don't really know much about monster trucks, but they look a lot like big ATVs to me, so maybe Donovan Tate will finally get his shot at playing in a major league ballpark.
LOS ANGELES -- Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said on Wednesday that he hasn't yet decided how to divvy up the playing time behind the plate, with newcomer Yasmani Grandal likely to take the bulk of playing time from incumbent A.J. Ellis. But Mattingly did praise the former Padres backstop, now with Los Angeles.
"Yasmani was a guy who, at the end of the year we didn't really like being up there with runners in scoring position. He's got big upside on offense," Mattingly said. "We feel really comfortable with him behind the plate."
Grandal, 26, hit .225/.327/.401 with 15 home runs and 58 walks in 128 games with the Padres in 2014, though hit just .181/.276/.324 with runners in scoring position after an OPS above .800 in such situation in his first two major league seasons.
Mattingly did say Wednesday that in general he doesn't like the idea of personal catchers, an idea that he has also expressed in the past. Though in practice it has sometimes worked out otherwise, like with Matt Treanor catching 17 of Chris Capuano's 33 starts in 2012, or Drew Butera catching 13 of 20 Josh Beckett starts in 2014, including long stretches of consecutive starts for each pair.
But that doesn't necessarily mean Ellis catch every Clayton Kershaw start, nor does it mean Ellis will be limited to those starts for his playing time. But however the workload behind the plate is distributed, Mattingly doesn't foresee any problems.
"What makes it easier for me is dealing with A.J.," Mattingly said. "Talking with A.J. yesterday, knowing that could be a sticky situation, his first response was, 'I just want to win.'"
The rumored destination is now the official one, with Petco Park hosting its first-ever All-Star Game in 2016.
Petco Park has hosted concerts, the World Baseball Classic, parts of the San Diego Comic Con experience, television filming, and more -- but it has never hosted an MLB All-Star Game. That will change in 2016, as the Padres were officially awarded the annual July event by by commissioner-elect Rob Manfred.
The timing is good for the Padres, too, as they might actually have a roster with more than just the token All-Star representatives in time for this game. They traded for Matt Kemp ad Derek Norris this offseason -- both of whom have made previous midsummer classics -- and brought potential future All-Star Wil Myers aboard as well. Throw a healthy Andrew Cashner in the mix and, hey, the San Diego crowd might actually get to watch some San Diego All-Stars.
The Orioles were the original favorite for the 2016 All-Star Game, but those plans fell through, possibly because of the ongoing fight over MASN between the O's, Nationals, and Major League Baseball. The All-Star Game is a huge event, and it's not going to be awarded to an organization that isn't playing nice.
The Padres have a beautiful park that opened in 2004, and San Diego is obviously a lovely place for an event such as this. They might not have been the initial favorites, but this is still a deserving choice. Don't worry about a lack of dingers at the Home Run Derby in pitcher-friendly Petco, either: much of those issues stem from the weather being too cool at night in San Diego, but the derby will be starting in the afternoon as far as Pacific time is concerned. It should, in theory, be a warm July day with dingers aplenty.
Ruben Amaro is reportedly attempting to stare teams like the Cardinals down in order to get them to meet his asking price for the obligation to pay Cole Hamels at least $96 million over the next four seasons.
Last week, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX reported that the St. Louis Cardinals had expressed interest in veteran lefthanders David Price and Cole Hamels. On Thursday, Jim Salisbury reported on CSN Philadelphia that the Philadelphia Phillies were in "stare downs" with the Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, and San Diego Padres in an attempt to extract as much value as possible in exchange for Hamels. Salislbury speculates that Hamels will be dealt "eventually," but probably not this winter because the Phillies are having difficulty finding an offer that includes the prospect haul they desire.
That television interview is augmented by a Salisbury article, which echoes the thoughts he shared on video:
The Phillies’ price remains high for Hamels and they will not deal him unless they get the value they are looking for. They’ve been burned in the past by dealing aces Cliff Lee and Curt Schilling and they can’t afford for that to happen again. Amaro, with his job on the line, certainly can’t afford for it to happen. Those aware of the Phillies’ desires say the team would have to get two top talents to move Hamels, who is signed through 2018 at $96 million and possibly through 2019 at $110 million if his option kicks in.
Potential trade partners are well aware of what it would take to get Hamels. If a team blinks in this staredown, the Phillies will pull the trigger. If not, the Phils will hold onto Hamels and take offers into July. By then, Lee will have had time to show his wares. If he’s healthy, he’ll be a trade chip, too. Keep an eye on the Red Sox if Lee is healthy. They have always had a thing for him.
Right now, Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro is driving a hard bargain. With Hamels under contract for four years, there's no rush to trade him—other than the risk that he might suffer an injury that hurts his value like teammate Cliff Lee did. The Phillies want and need to start rebuilding, but Hamels is their most valuable asset and Amaro needs to leverage the lefty into as much talent as possible.
Left unreported is Philadelphia's willingness, if any, to eat a portion of Hamels's remaining salary. Unlike reports regarding players the Dodgers were shopping on the trade market earlier this Hot Stove, none of the reporting on Philadelphia's Hamels discussions has indicated that the Phillies are open to eating some of the $96 million in guaranteed money he is owed over the coming four years.
Potentially making the financial commitment to Hamels even larger is a vesting option that could trigger a fifth season. The invaluable Cot's Baseball Contracts summarizes the vesting option thusly:
2019 option guaranteed at $24M if Hamels 1) has 400 IP in 2017-18, including 200 IP in 2018, and 2) is not on the disabled list with a shoulder or elbow injury at the end of the 2018 season
By my math, the $24 million vesting option for 2019 would push the total value of Hamels contract to $114 million. Cot's also describes a club option for 2019 with a $6 million buyout and a $20 million salary. Jerry Crasnick's report on the contract at the time of its signing labels it a "club vesting option." MLB.com's Todd Zolecki indicates it's either a club option or a vesting option. So it appears there are two potential options for 2019, each with a different salary: a $24 million salary in the event the option vests or a $20 million salary if the club elects to exercise the option, with a $6 million buyout.
Surrendering two "top talents" in exchange for the obligation to pay Hamels at least $96 million over the next four years is not particularly palatable. This is likely why the Cardinals, Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox are currently each involved in a stare down with the Phillies. So far, no one has blinked. Most predictably, Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak hasn't batted an eyelash. At Amaro's reported asking price, why would he?
Petco Park finally gets its All-Star Game... but at what cost?
I am really excited for 2016's All-Star Game. The last time the Midsummer Classic was in town, I was seven years old, so even if we could have afforded it, I wouldn't have really appreciated it. And Petco Park is one of the most beautiful ballparks in baseball, in the single most gorgeous city in baseball. Everything about this decision is perfect... except for one little question that keeps popping up in the the back of my mind: Did the Padres sell their soul for this?
Back in August, well-loved reviled Commissioner Bud Selig came through town on his farewell tour. You might remember that the front office chose to honor him for his long years of commissioning by naming part of the ballpark after him, which upset more than a few fans. And then, in a move that doesn't look conspicuous at all, the team submitted their application for the All-Star Game. To the lame-duck commissioner they had just honored.
Officially, everyone will say that the two events are totally unrelated. And maybe that's true. But even if it is, it still doesn't look true, and there's no way to talk about the 2016 All-Star Game without talking about BS Plaza. The very fact that San Diego is getting a game expected to go to an American Arena League city is suspect. And it happened in the closing days of Selig's reign. It looks dirty as sin, and there's no good reason for it.
A game would have come to San Diego sooner rather than later, regardless. 2019 marks the 50th anniversary of the Padres' major league debut as well as the 250th birthday of the city (right around All-Star Weekend, no less), and '19 is of pretty obvious significance to the team and its fans. That's the kind of history MLB thrives on, and it could have happened all without selling out to the doddering old fool who turned the All-Star Game into a joke.
Everyone's favorite everyday shortstop Alexi Amarista has avoided arbitration by signing a two year $2.5 million contract. He'll get $1.1 million in his first year and $1.3 million in his second, plus a $100k signing bonus. Manager Bud Black and a small group of fans that crush on Amarista are said to be stoked out of their minds.
Alexi amarista, padres agree to $2.5M, 2-year deal
As much as the Padres outfield has improved in the off-season the infield still looks relatively weak at this point. One would hope that A.J. Preller still has a few tricks up his sleeve to upgrade the powerless positions.
General Manager A.J. Preller, who has overhauled the offense in most other places, might still seek an upgrade. If he does, Amarista may return a utility role.
Amarista is cheap and isn't a bad guy to have off the bench. I admit I have a fun time watching him play because he's so little. I, for one, welcome him with open arms.
Heading into Friday, the Rays had eight arbitration eligible players that they had yet to reach an agreement with, and had until 1:00 PM to sign a deal, or due to self-imposed restrictions by the club, cases would have to settled in court.
When the deadline hit, six deals had yet to be announced, making it appear as if the Rays would be pulling six players out of Spring Training camp for hearings, but news eventually broke that every played had reached an agreement. Down to the wire!
Jennings batted .244 (117-for-479) with 10 home runs and 36 RBI in 123 games in 2014, including a team-high 70 starts at leadoff. He is one of seven players in the majors to reach double-digit homers and stolen bases in each of the last four seasons.
John Jaso - Projected = $3.3 M / Actual = $3.175 M
The recently re-acquired Jaso looks to serve a platoon designated hitter role next season as the "third catcher" on the roster.
McGee ranked among the AL’s top 10 relievers in WAR (2.6, third), appearances (tied for fifth), strikeouts (90, seventh) FIP (fifth) and ERA (ninth). McGee can get an additional $25k for pitching in 65 games, and another $25k for reaching 70 games. Bone Spur surgery will side line him for the beginning of the season.
Cobb went 10-9 with a 2.87 ERA (166.1-IP, 53-ER) in 27 starts in 2014. He is the only American League pitcher with 10-plus wins, a winning record and a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons. In four seasons with the Rays, he is 35-23 with a 3.21 ERA, which ranks second in club history (min. 300 IP).
Rene Rivera - Projected = $1.3 M / Actual = $1.2 M
Rivera posted career highs in nearly every category after a journeyman's career, but looks to have solidified a starting role with his acquisition by the Rays in the Myers deal. Rivera can earn up to $200k in incentives
After reaching a career high in games played last season at 110, Forsythe is hoping to catch some of his magic from 2012 again next season, likely filing a platoon role at second base, and possibly backing up the other infield positions. He can earn an extra $25k for reaching 400 PA.
Kevin Jepsen - Projected = $2.6 M / Actual = $3.025 M
The most surprising outcome of the settlements, Jepsen was the sole prize in the Matt Joyce deal with the Angels early in the off-season. Jepsen set career bests across the board last season, and ranked well against the American League with a 2.63 ERA (22nd) and 2.78 FIP (11th). He will be in the running as Rays closer as McGee recovers from elbow surgery.
In his first of four arbitration cases as a Super Two, Smyly is eligible for a $25k bonus if he reaches 28 starts, and another $25k for reaching 30. Smyly allowed three runs or fewer in all seven Rays starts after his mid-season acquisition in the Price trade, establishing a club record to begin a Rays career.
***
There were no multi-year deals signed. Since the Rays were able settle with each eligible player, this marks the third straight year the team has not had to go to court to reach an agreement, though the team has had considerable success during those cases, going undefeated.
Meanwhile, former Ray, David Price, set a new record for an arbitration eligible player with an agreement that guaranteed him $19.75 million for the year. That's more than double the salary of the Rays' projected opening day rotation.
After announcing a two-year deal with shortstop/second baseman/outfielder/rover/token short person Alexi Amarista this morning, the Padres announced one year deals with their remaining 6 arbitration-eligible players. Veteran starting pitcher Ian Kennedy got the biggest payday. In his final season before free agency, he'll be pulling in $9.85 million (or, to put it another way, 0.463 Matt Kemp-bucks). Yonder Alonso, Dale Thayer, and Tyson Ross all wrapped up their first year of arbitration, while Andrew Cashner and recently-acquired reliever Shawn Kelley were second and third-year eligible, respectively.
Dennis Lin at the UT has all the numbers, and notes that the team currently has just under $89 million committed to 18 players. Those 18 players include the likes of Carlos Quentin, Josh Johnson, and Cory Luebke, so expect at least ten more guys on the Opening Day payroll, likely making the relative pittance of pre-arbitration. Of course, there's still time for A.J. Preller to get Cole Hamels and blow last year's numbers out of the water.
Okay... and MAYBE naming something after Bud Selig MIGHT have helped. We all know the reasons Selig Hall of Fame Plaza was a bad idea. But maybe JUST MAYBE, in hindsight, there was a bright side to the whole ordeal.
This is me trying to be as positive as I can about a crappy situation, so bear with me... I can't be the only one who remembers that, not too long ago, one of the biggest criticisms of the Padres front office was that they hadn't done enough to get us an All-Star Game. One of the most constant complaints from Padres fans in recent years was that Petco Park had yet to host an All-Star Game despite being "due." Before Selig Plaza happened, the soonest San Diego was even remotely supposed to be in the running for was 2019. And sure, that would have been an ideal time to host the Game with it being the Padres' 50th Anniversary and the obvious significance of the number 19; but now we get an All-Star Game three years earlier than we could've imagined.
The whole "BS Plaza" fiasco was a nightmare for San Diego, but think about what the All Star Game will do for all of us. And if naming a small, virtually insignificant area of Petco Park after Bud Selig helped seal the deal, isn't that KIND OF worth it? Even a little? And it was a good lesson for our front office on the importance of anticipating the reaction of the fanbase when making decisions.
Okay, I can't even sell that lie to myself.
But hopefully a year from now when we're still reeling from the excitement of our first World Series win and looking forward to hosting some of the best in baseball during the All-Star Break, BS Plaza can be a blip on the radar. Thanks to AJ Preller, we have a much-improved on-the-field product to look forward to and a new era of Padres baseball is being ushered in; and an All-Star Game coming to our town next year is just the oreo cookie bits on top of the sundae.
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2015 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders for the book, so order early and order often!
All of these grades are preliminary and subject to change.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS
Grade A prospects are the elite.In theory, they have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Theoretically, most Grade A prospects develop into stars or at least major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for the full analysis about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much.A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
1) Hunter Renfroe, OF, Grade B+/Borderline B. Age 22, hit .295/.370/.565 in 69 games in California League, then .232/.307/.353 in 60 games in the Texas League, stole 11 bases combined. Excellent power but contact issues are obvious, though he’s made adjustments before. I think the upside justifies the grade but it is not risk-free. 2) Matt Wisler, RHP, Grade B+/Borderline B: Age 22, posted 4.42 ERA with 136/42 K/BB in 147 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 157 hits. PCL environment worked against him and reports see him as more of a number three starter than an ace-type, not that there is anything wrong with that. 3) Rymer Liriano, OF, Grade B/Borderline B+: Age 23, hit .291/.362/.473 with 20 steals in 115 games between Double-A and Triple-A, but just .220/.289/.266 in 38 major league games. All the tools are here but his approach is still rather raw. 20/20 potential if he can show sufficient polish for it to manifest, which is still an open question.
4) Austin Hedges, C, Grade B-/Borderline B: Age 22, draws constant praise for excellent defensive skills. Completely overmatched by Double-A pitching however, with some reports (not all) indicating reduced bat speed, swing mechanical troubles, over-aggressive approach. Hit .225/.268/.321. Many scouts still believe in the bat but there are more doubters than before and young catchers sometimes fail to develop offensively.
5) Michael Gettys, OF, Grade B-: Age 19, second-round pick with All-Star tools, disappointing spring lowered stock but he hit .310/.353/.437 with 14 steals in rookie ball. Still some questions about his approach and 15/66 BB/K in 213 at-bats is problematic. Could be a star, could be Drew Stubbs, could wash out in Triple-A. Very high ceiling. 6) Jose Rondon, SS, Grade B-: Age 20, acquired from Angels in Huston Street trade, hit combined .315/.363/.404 in the California League. Good defensive rep, can hit for average, young, main question will be power development. If he can manage gap power he could be a very solid regular. 7) Zechariah Lemond, RHP, Grade B-: Age 22, third round pick out of Rice University in 2014, posted 3.43 ERA with 36/5 K/BB in 42 innings in pro debut, mostly in the Northwest League. Heavy ground ball pitcher with above-average velocity and good command. Main worry is health, he’s already had elbow issues and you know the track record of Rice pitchers. Possible number three starter if arm doesn’t explode, could also be a fine reliever.
8) Casey Kelly, RHP, Grade C+: Age 25, pitched 20 innings between High-A and Double-A, 2.21 ERA with 17/1 K/BB. Very slow recovery from Tommy John surgery. Stuff and pitchability appear to be intact, but he has missed almost three complete seasons with injury problems. Hard to rank/rate due to the medical concerns. Has natural ability of a number three starter but needs to show he can handle any sort of workload.
9) Franchy Cordero, SS, Grade C+: Age 20, overmatched in Low-A (.188/.237/.235 in 22 games) but improved after going down to Northwest League (.279/.329/.458) though he still showed a raw approach. Intriguing power/speed combination with nine homers and 16 steals, but bat needs polish. Glove is even worse: this is not a typo, he made 51 errors in 56 games at shortstop for a .801 fielding percentage.
10) Cory Spangenberg, INF-OF, Grade C+: Age 23, hit .317/.353/.455 with 16 steals mostly in Double-A with some rehab games at lower levels, hit .290/.313/.452 in 20 major league games. Nice line drive hitter with defensive versatility, could have a long career as a semi-regular/super-utility type.
11) Tayron Guerrero, RHP, Grade C+: Age 24, hard-throwing relief prospect posted 1.45 ERA with 56/20 K/BB in 50 innings between High-A and Double-A. Long history of command troubles but made progress last year, upper-90s heat and made progress with breaking ball. Could close if he keeps improving, middle relief otherwise.
12) Alex Dickerson, OF-1B, Grade C+: Age 24, hit .321/.367/.496 in 34 games in Double-A in injury-shortened season. Lacks great tools but has a long track record of good hitting dating back to college. Probably not quite enough homer power for a modern first baseman but should find a role somewhere.
13) Taylor Lindsey, 2B, Grade C+: Age 23.Hit .238/.306/.372 in 118 games in Triple-A, traded from Angels in Street trade. Disappointing season, despite past solid performances scouts have always wondered about his swing and it caught up with him in the PCL. 14) Jordan Paroubeck, OF, Grade C+: Age 20. .286/.346/.457 in 34 games in rookie ball, switch-hitter with power/speed upside, has contact issues and will need development time but very high ceiling.
15) Franmil Reyes, OF, Grade C+: Age 19, hit .248/.301/.368 with 11 homers, 38 walks, 118 strikeouts in 508 at-bats in Low-A. High-ceiling bat but not there yet, needs polish in all phases, tighter strike zone. 16) Rafael De Paula, RHP, Grade C+: Age 23, acquired from Yankees, good fastball well into the 90s and a good change-up too, erratic breaking ball and shaky command resulted in 4.92 ERA, 145/55 K/BB in 132 innings, 135 hits in High-A. Arm strength to be very good but more probably a reliever than a starter at higher levels.
17) Fernando Perez, 2B-3B, Grade C+: Age 21, hit .284/.322/.454 with 18 homers, 25 walks, 106 strikeouts in 469 at-bats in Low-A. Limited range harms his defensive value and may move him to first base or outfield. Good power in the bat, strike zone feeling is questionable.
18) Seth Streich, RHP, Grade C+: Age 23, acquired from Oakland Athletics in Derek Norris deal posted 3.16 ERA with 116/22 K/BB in 114 innings in California League. Doesn’t have the pure stuff and velocity of De Paula or Guerrero, but much better command and pitchability give him fourth starter profile, assuming he adapts well in the high minors.
19) Elliot Morris, RHP, Grade C+: Age 22, another component of trade with Angels, split season between three teams so he is easy to miss, posted composite 3.38 ERA with 117/52 K/BB in 133 innings. Low/mid-90s fastball, solid slider and change-up, another potential fourth starter or reliever.
20) Ryan Butler, RHP, Grade C+:Age 22, seventh round pick out of Charlotte in 2014, posted 2.76 ERA with 36/9 K/BB in 29 innings in debut, 11 saves, mostly in Low-A. Mid-90s, reportedly hit 100 as well, breaking stuff needs work but the arm strength for quick relief success is evident.
New GM A.J. Preller inherited a farm system that was in relatively decent shape. He quickly traded off many of his top prospects this winter for a quick major league roster boost, but there is still some talent here as well as some question-marks.
Hunter Renfroe, Rymer Liriano, Jordan Paroubeck, Franmil Reyes, and especially Michael Gettys are the basis of a sound outfield. All of them have questions to answer about their approaches and ability to make sufficient contact against advanced pitching. All of them could also become 20+ homer bats. Cory Spangenberg and Alex Dickerson don’t have the same type of upside but both should be useful role players. Jose Rondon and Taylor Lindsey, both acquired from the Angels, provide some infield depth. I don’t know what Franchy Cordero is; the tools are obvious but his defense is a real issue.
Austin Hedges draws very mixed opinions. Everyone loves his glove behind the plate, but the bat is problematic. Some Texas League observers felt that his problems were fixable and that he will eventually be a solid hitter. Other sources said he looked hopelessly lost, his bat speed down from the past and his swing fouled. The stats support the pessimistic view at this point, but he is young enough to rebound.
The Padres traded much of their minor league pitching depth. They are still headlined by the very solid Matt Wisler but can Casey Kelly stay healthy? There are several back-of-the-rotation potentialities and many bullpen options. Nobody looks like a genuine top-of-the-rotation anchor at this stage.
It will be interesting to see how the new front office handles the 2015 draft and international market. With Preller in charge, will the Padres act like a National League version of the Rangers with their drafting and development program?
When Sileo asks Mike Dee if the Selig Plaza had anything to do with the Padres getting the All-Star Game he chuckles and says:
"Hey well listen, we're here today to look forward [laughs], but it was a long process and I think, listen, whenever you're able to secure something like this for the community, and obviously we're fired up about it, so many people play a roll in it and so many things play a roll in it, but we're just happy it came to closure and it came to closure in our favor yesterday and we're just really thrilled to have the game here in San Diego."
The San Diego mayor and his staff were very instrumental in bringing the All-Star game to town. Teams and cities usually have three to four years to plan for an All-Star game but the Padres have less than two years notice. Business, conventions and hotel bookings need to be organized in a way to make room for the All-Star game. Dee doubts the Padres would have been successful at this if the mayor had not taken the role of leading the charge.
The economics of the All-Star game is projected to have an $80M impact on the city. Dee thinks it could be more because people will want to spend more time in San Diego. As an example, Dee has friends with the Red Sox who are planning 12 day vacations here.
Dee had front row seats to watching the Red Sox rebuild their organization with Theo Epstein. He sees similarities between Epstein and Preller.
Dee came back to San Diego because he saw the commitment from Ron Fowler and Peter Seidler. He wouldn't have come back, despite his love for San Diego, if he didn't see the commitment.
Dee thinks it's really important to get a new facility built for the Chargers.
Scott Kaplan asks Fowler if the All-Star Game was awarded to San Diego because the Padres named a plaza in Petco Park after Bud Selig.
"It had nothing to do with that. Frankly if we would have thought about it a bit more we would have done something inside the offices versus the outside because we realized the community did not understand the significance of some of the things the commissioner did, but there was no quid pro quo."
The Padres submitted a very compelling bid to the commissioners office. There's a lot of things going on in the summer. They had to work with the Convention Center and the Mayor's Office. There were eight or nine different efforts part of the bid. It was a private/public partnership that worked effectively for San Diego.
If the Mayor asked Fowler to help find a solution for the Chargers stadium, he would even if there might be a conflict of interest. "We need to keep the Chargers here."
A formal presentation for the 2016 All-Star Game was done in November. Major League Baseball came to town during the Winter Meetings and scouted the area. The commissioner said the Padres submitted the best bid. "We're just pleased as heck that we were awarded it."
Fowler thinks that the Padres would have gotten the All-Star game even without the buzz created around the Padres off-season acquisitions, but it didn't hurt. The Winter Meetings were a smashing success, which played a part. Fowler wants two or three more here. The ballpark improvements also contributed. Mike Dee, Ron Fowler and Peter Seidler are working really closely with the MLB on various projects and various committees as well.
Kaplan asks if this will be the year that Padres fans outnumber Dodger fans in Petco Park. "We would love to have the darker blue color on the caps of the fans that come to the games." The Padres are looking to reengage fans, along with Preller's improvements.
Major League Baseball appreciates the business perspective the team brings to baseball.
Being Chairman of the Padres is a dream come true.
Fowler won't bet against A.J. Preller getting a couple more things done before Spring Training.
Ray Guilfoyle and Brian Creagh discuss the pros and cons to valuing Freddie Freeman in 2015
Round 2 of our rankings rumble series features Atlanta Braves first basemen, Freddie Freeman. In our inaugural post, we wrote about Freeman's former teammate, Evan Gattis and released the article the day he was traded to Houston. I don't expect the same level of fireworks when publishing this article, but the Gattis trade does throw an interesting wrench into the analysis of Freeman as a weak supporting cast just became even weaker.
2014 Stats:
G
162
HR
18
R
93
RBI
78
SB
3
AVG
0.288
Ray's Ranking
Brian's Ranking
Freddie Freeman
13
7
Case For Freddie Freeman (Presented by Brian Creagh):
Even in his worst season of power production, Freddie Freeman finished 8th in fantasy value for all eligible 1B in 5x5 formats. Freeman has been a consistent contributor for the past 4 years, and while he doesn’t have the upside of other 1B players you would consider taking in the same spot (Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, etc), he also carries far less risk. 2015 will be his age 25 season and Freeman’s best seasons are likely ahead of him - a scary thought for a two-time all star and 5th place finalist for the NL MVP award.
I expect to see regression to the mean in Freeman’s power numbers next season, ending with 20-25 HRs. 2014’s total of 18 HRs was the lowest total of his career and paralleled a career-low 6.6% HR/FB% compared to the 9.2% career average he had heading into last season. Freeman hit a career high 43 doubles last season so the power is still there and I expect some of those doubles to climb the fence and become HRs in 2015.
The most controversial part of Freeman’s ranking is his supporting cast. I’ll readily admit I don’t believe much in weighing team offense too heavily in fantasy rankings. There are plenty examples of great hitters having exceptional seasons despite poor team offensive numbers. And there’s a chance they aren’t as terrible as we expect. Remember all the doubters in Giancarlo Stanton last year because of the poor Miami offense? They ended up being almost league average and didn’t prohibit Stanton from having a monster season. I don’t mean to compare Stanton and Freeman from a production standpoint, but I don’t think the firesale in Atlanta will have much of a negative impact on Freeman’s final numbers. In my opinion, Freeman is one of the safer bets in the second tier of fantasy 1B options once you get past Miggy, Abreu, Rizzo and Encarnacion.
Case Against Freddie Freeman (Presented by Ray Guilfoyle):
I ranked Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman as my 13th ranked first baseman in my most recent first base rankings, mainly due to the fact that he will be hitting in the middle of a decimated Braves lineup. The Braves are in a full rebuild and will have trouble scoring runs in 2015.
The Braves scored 573 runs last year, ranking 29th in MLB, 38 runs scored ahead of the last place Padres. They scored 573 runs with recently traded Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis in their lineup, so it is very possible they fail to reach 500 runs scored in 2015.
Last season, Freeman hit .288-.386-.461 with 18 home runs, 93 runs scored and 78 RBI. Among fantasy first baseman, according to FanGraphs eligibility which does not include some catchers like Buster Posey and DHs like David Ortiz and Chris Carter, Freeman ranked sixth in batting average, 15th in home runs, second in runs scored, and 14th in RBI. I see him still putting up a high batting average next season, but see his runs scored and RBI total dropping some. There are several other first base eligible hitters that I would consider ranking ahead of Freeman including Carlos Santana and Chris Davis mainly due to their power potential.
With Heyward, Upton and Gattis gone from the Braves lineup in 2015, Freeman could be one of the league leaders in walks in 2015, so he has solid value in leagues where OBP is a category. In standard roto leagues, Freeman’s value is reduced as he will struggle to score and drive in runs next season.
Finding information on baseball ejections can be difficult. Fortunately, Retrosheet has done it for us, which allows for some interesting analysis.
It's so easy to take things for granted -- our families, spouses, children, and so on come immediately to mind, but also assuming the wealth of baseball data available not only was always there but was archived with no effort. When thought about for any length of time the obvious conclusion is reached that someone had to do the heavy lifting to make that information available. When those brief moments of inspiration and lucidity occur, it's nice to acknowledge those people.
Retrosheet is the spine upon which most modern baseball databases are built, the core box scores and play-by-play descriptions that are the basis of modern measures. More information on their history can be found here, and my point isn't so much to proselytize for the work they do (even though I should) as much as acknowledge and thank them for doing it. Without the compendium of information they've compiled, I (and many others) can't do the type of analysis I do.
Some time last year I stumbled across a section I had never seen before titled "Umpires". In addition to games and position I saw something I'd always been interested in but had a hard time finding, let along quantifying and analyzing -- data on ejections and reasons why. I've written about this in the past, and as I was updating data from the 2014 season I clicked on the page that listed the data credits:
The newest section of data now available on the website relates to umpires.
I can't define "new" in this context, but it made me feel better at least to think that this data hasn't been sitting around since the mid-1990s just waiting for me to find it.
One of the other things I've discovered in the past year is using Tableau data visualizations, and I use them not to junk up a post but because a picture really can say a thousand words, if used correctly. I use charts and graphs to illuminate and as shorthand -- in my former life as a pharma sales rep, I could discuss a clinical trial with physicians but saw the light go on if I had a chart I could reference that summarized the pertinent data. This is the data viz of all recorded ejections in baseball history, with plenty of explanation to follow:
There are seven tabs, and the first four follow the same format. The Umpires tab shows the number of ejections made by individual umpires along with the number of games umpired. I arbitrarily set the filter to 1990, but it can be moved to show as few or as many years as desired. There is ejection data going back to 1889, and it's intriguing to see how the numbers move over time.
Using Bob Davidson to explain further, between 1990 and 2014 he umpired 2,634 games and ejected 124 people, or in around five percent of the games he umpired. This is not Davidson's entire career, since he reached the major leagues in 1982 and has umpired a total of 3,681 regular season games (and 39 postseason and 3 All-Star games, but the data viz shows only regular season games) and has ejected 161 people. Comparisons can be made between other contemporary umpires in games umpired, number of ejections, and percentage of games in which they threw people out.
The next three tabs show the same information for Managers, Players, and Coaches, with the small difference being that total games are not shown for players and coaches since their relative paucity of ejections makes that percentage meaningless. Even so, there's some very interesting information lurking in there as the data is filtered and massaged. In fact, have some fun now and try to think of the player with the most ejections since around 1950 (no fair if you saw me tweet this earlier this week) and check the viz to see who it was. It was not the first name that came to my mind, but it certainly made sense.
The next tab, Ejection Reason, shows the reasons why people were ejected and also includes a filter to select the number of years viewed. The primary reason for ejections has remained fairly constant throughout baseball history, although it's probably not the reason itself as much as the language the ejectee used to plead his case to the umpire. Ejection Pct shows the distribution of ejections between players, managers, and coaches, and I'll admit I was very surprised by the results.
I added the last tab as I was writing this, Umpires by Year, which shows how many ejections umpires make in a given year. The filter used is intentionally different and shows only one year at a time to illustrate that it isn't unusual for an umpire to go an entire year (or in some cases several years) without throwing anyone out. The common perception is that modern umpires are overly concerned with showmanship and too quick to toss someone, and while there are certainly individual circumstances where this might be true, on the whole this doesn't appear to be the case.
Ejection information isn't easy to find. For example, on August 14th, 2014, Bob Davidson ejected Padres manager Bud Black for arguing a replay call. Neither the box score available from Baseball Reference or FanGraphs references the ejection, and even my guy Daren Willman's wonderful Baseball Savant lists the replay (#947 on this page -- scroll way down) without mentioning Black was ejected. I mention this not to slight any of these sites but to show just how difficult it is to find ejection information. With any luck I've created a resource that allows for deeper investigation of ejection trends, and for that I thank the kind folks at Retrosheet who unearthed and disseminated this information. For people like me who are fascinated with baseball history, it's an eye-opening experience to find information never readily available before.
All information from Retrosheet. Any errors in compiling or processing the data are the author's.
Scott Lindholm lives in Davenport, IA. Follow him on Twitter @ScottLindholm.
The Padres are supposedly the front-runners for Cole Hamels, but with the Phillies asking for the entire farm and a lifetime supply of Hodad's burgers, it doesn't seem likely to happen. So who else is available to bolster the rotation?
Hearing #Nats RHP Stephen Strasburg is very much available and both sides believe it is time to move on. #MLB
Oh. I guess when you get yourselves a Max Scherzer, Strassy seems like yesterday's news. With two years left on his contract at a third of Hamels's price, he offers a lot more payroll flexibility. And, as an Aztec for Life who was never a terrible enough person to root for the Dodgers, he has a lot more fan appeal.
So what's the downside? Well, Strasburg just isn't as good (so far). Last year he put up a career-best 3.5 bWAR. The last time Hamels was worth less than that was 2009. In 2014, he was good for a whopping 6.6 bWAR. If you're keeping track, that made him the second most valuable pitcher in the National League last year. And Hamels has one other thing going for him: He's a lefty, and the only southpaw starters currently on the Padres are Robbie Erlin and Cory Luebke. So if A.J. Preller goes after Strasburg, he's crazy enough to run out a rotation without a lefty.
Still, it is fun to think about Strasburg coming home.
Maybe LA sports writers should stick to begging for NFL teams.
While this has been a pretty exciting offseason, I'm still starved for anything Padres-related, so when I saw this LA Times puff piece about Dick Enberg and his Ford C. Frick Award, I gave it a look. It starts with a weird analogy about Diana Krall that I don't understand because I've never listened to Diana Krall. Then there's a list of famous broadcasters, you know, "The Greats" that Enberg is joining. Of course, because this is Los Angeles and the west coast revolves around them, that list includes Vin Scully, the Platonic Ideal Of Baseball Broadcasters.
And then I got to this part: "He is the Padres' Scully, and one of the few announcers whose name can share the same sentence." Excuse me? First, let's dispense with the idea that we want or need a Scully. The Padres are a team with their own identity, and they don't need to define themselves with comparisons to the Dodgers. Second, if we're using "Scully" as a shorthand for "beloved broadcaster who defined Padres baseball for generations of fans", we're not talking about a guy who has called 5 seasons of San Diego baseball as a retirement gig. We're talking about All-Star, World Series MVP, four-time World Series champion, and Frick Award-winning Lieutenant Colonel Gerald Francis Coleman.
It's not really surprising that a Los Angeles sportswriter would be so clueless about San Diego baseball. I mean, they only show up for about four innings. So let me see if I can fix that article for them: Vin Scully is one of the few announcers who can share the same sentence with Jerry.
Thursday morning's baseball looks at Cole Hamels trade issues, Matt Harvey's excellence, and no one knowing anything about James Shields.
Listen, we know it's tough to catch up on everything happening in the baseball world each morning. There are all kinds of stories, rumors, game coverage and Vines of dudes getting hit in the beans every day, and trying to find all of it while on your way to work or sitting at your desk isn't easy. It's OK, though, we're going to do the heavy lifting for you each morning, and find the things you need to see from within the SB Nation baseball network as well as from elsewhere. Please hold your applause until the end.
★★★
There have been Cole Hamels trade rumors for almost the entire offseason, and they started much earlier than that. There have been specific teams involved, specific prospects targeted, and Phillies' general manager Ruben Amaro has even commented on the potential for a trade on numerous occasions. And yet, we're now less than a month out from pitchers and catchers reporting, and Cole Hamels is still on the Phillies. He might even stay there, as Amaro is standing firm in his belief that the trade return should include some of baseball's very best prospects.
Now, Amaro is not wrong: the Phillies should get some serious prospects back for Hamels, who is not only great but has a very reasonable four years and $96 million still owed him (five and $110 million should his option be picked up). Maybe it's time they give a little on their end to make that happen, though. The Phillies are richer than most teams thanks to their market, success that only feels like it happened forever ago, and a major television deal that involves the word "billions". If they want an incredible prospect return that will help reshape the franchise and turn it around, they might need to write a big check to whoever is giving them those prospects.
This isn't just a case of national writers telling the Phillies what they need to do, either. Teams have either found other means of acquiring pitching or would rather just stick it out sans Hamels instead of giving in to the current demands of the Phillies. Th result will be Philly retaining Hamels, who probably won't be Cole Hamels as we know him today by the time the Phillies are any good again. Lest you've forgotten how bad things are for the Phillies right now, they have their own quadrant in the win-now and win-later plot.
They need the prospects that Hamels will bring, and with the situation the team is in they likely need them more than they need Hamels. Amaro probably isn't being as unrealistic as he's been portrayed as, but at some point, the market is the market, and you need to adjust to that to get what you want, or take Hamels off the table. The latter seems to be the case for now, but as y'all know, that sort of thing can change with a single phone call.
Some teams don't have their bullpens set yet, and that's a dangerous game to play this time of year. Someone should really sign poor Burke Badenhop, though.
Baseball is looking to shorten the breaks in between innings to help shave some more time off of games. See, pitch clocks weren't the only thing they were going to do.
If the Yankees didn't spend big because of the budget they already have in place, it's worth wondering if this means they won't spend big next year, either, since that year is already ridiculously expensive.
No one knows who the favorite for James Shields is. The Padres are on the periphery, apparently, and would make sense in their park, but they aren't the most interested team. That would be the the mystery team.
We know what the 2015 Red Sox rotation will look like, but what about the 2016 model? Their prospects have some work to do to fill the holes that will open, especially if the Sox aren't going to spend big on a free agent starter.
Don't forget that the Tigers are very, very rich, and don't mind spending their money. They let Max Scherzer walk and they're still likely paying the luxury tax in each of the next two seasons.
The San Diego club is rumored to be interested in free agent pitcher James Shields.
Recent rumors have connected the Padres to Stephen Strasburg and Cole Hamels. Both hail from San Diego, but both are only trade candidates and it takes two to tango in those transactions and the Padres might have to give up a lot in terms of prospects to get either. James Shields is a free agent that could upgrade the rotation. He would only cost money (which Strasburg and Hamels will get plenty of as well) and a 2015 1st round draft pick. Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal connected the Friars to the World Series Game 1 starter in a tweet today:
Source: #Padres on periphery of Shields sweepstakes, unlikely to land him. Teams with heaviest interest still unclear.
Not exactly the juiciest rumor, but being on the periphery is a start. Perhaps Preller is just biding his time. I personally think the organization would be in better shape with Shields rather than trading for Hamels or Strasburg. Any of the 3 would be a big upgrade to the rotation since Odrisamer Despaigne and Robbie Erlin are nowhere near as talented let alone accomplished as the 3 potential targets.
