Do you approve of the job Jeff Luhnow has done as GM of the Astros?
This one's pretty simple, y'all. TCB takes some heat from time to time for being Astros apologists and Luhnow Truthers. We've discussed the veracity of that before and I don't want to rehash things here.
What I do want is to get a sense from the community on where you stand on the job Luhnow is doing as Astros general manager.
The Astros once again improved the roster this winter. I imagine Luhnow's approval rating is better right now than it was back in November.
That's why we are doing this. By starting a monthly poll, we can look back and see where the ebbs and flows of his approval rating have gone. More data is always welcome, especially for something as subjective as this.
While Luhnow's 2015 moves may put him in a more favorable light with Astros fans, the Padres moves may reflect poorly on him. Seemingly in one offseason, new Padres GM A.J. Preller has turned his team into a "contender" with a slew of moves and money-spending.
It's a great time to be a Padres fan. After years living in baseball squallor, with few star players and fewer wins, the team is now flush with talent. Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, James Shields all bring a legitimacy to the team.
Will they bring wins?
The Padres are currently projected for 80 wins by FanGraphs. The Astros sit at 77. Last year, the Padres won 77 games. So, Preller's big moves gained the Friars three wins.
Luhnow's moves, while less splashy, gained Houston seven wins over 2014, while also not hamstringing the franchise financially. Seems relevant. Oh, and almost all of Luhnow's moves will also help the 2016, 2017 and 2018 clubs. The Padres moves will not do that.
To me, what the Padres did was like what I used to do in baseball video games. Did anyone else intentionally bottom out a terrible team, and then go on a spending spree that first offseason? You'd sign the top five or six free agents, trade for a few more guys and go from a 60-win team to an 85-win team.
Then, the next offseason, there's a better player on the market at the same position. You have to spend more money and don't necessarily move the needle on that win total again. So, you turn on "force trades" and unload the guy bumped out of the starting lineup for MIke Trout.
That's the Padres this offseason. They blew up their team, remade it in an entirely different image and improved their expected win total. But, they also squandered their future. They've basically gotten zero out of the last five first rounds of the draft, especially after losing the No. 13 overall pick by signing Shields.
Luhnow, on the other hand, played things patiently. He could have dramatically remade the Astros like Preller has done, but chose to build up the foundation first. Luhnow has never sacrificed the future for the now, which has caused plenty of fan unrest.
If we're still making video game analogies, not many people play MLB The Show or something like Luhnow built his Astros. It's just more fun to spend a bunch of fake money on big names now, rather than wait on the game's shaky player development engine to spit out future stars.
Anyways, where were we?
Oh, right. The approval poll. Yes. Very good.
What do you think of GM Jeff Luhnow right now? Do you think he's doing a good job? Has he improved the team from 2014? Discuss in the comments. Vote in the poll. We'll reconvene in a month.
The Yankees signed Kyle Davies to a minor league deal yesterday. That is all they did. Oh well. Holy Cow, pitchers and catchers report in Phil "The Scooter" Rizzuto days.
While the baseball world was waking up to find out that James Shields was now a member of the San Diego Padres, the Yankees and their fans were revealing in their decision to give right-handed pitcher Kyle Davies a minor league contract. Can you say "Championship?" In all seriousness, it's unlikely that Davies makes it out of Scranton. Only time will tell. Meanwhile, pitchers and catchers report in ten days. Holy cow!
Comments of the Day
The Yankees are gonna pick the next Mike Trout and Derek Jeter with this upcoming draft. Callin' it.
Too many Becks? Personally, I really liked Morning Phase and I'm happy it won the Grammy. Also relevant...
Even though the PSA Game Threads are pretty incredible, we could also take this as a sign as to why the YES booth really needs to just be Singleton and Cone.
Get the presents ready, PSAers.
GIF of the Day
I guess the Simpsons Grammy GIF, cause there were no other GIFs yesterday.
Honorable Mod Mention
Waffles got two COTD awards, so she'll take the HMM award home today.
Fun Questions
If money were no object, where in the world would you like to fly for a vacation of romance with your significant other?
I've mentioned before how Peter Gabriel's So is one of my all time favorite albums. This song is one of the reasons why. As always, please link us your Song of the Day.
Feel free to use this as your open thread for the day. I'm not going to lie, the photo I used of the Scooter for this thread is one of the best I've ever found.
"Put me in coach, I'm ready to play today. Look at me, I can be center field." So sang John Fogarty - but who will be occupying the role around the National League West in 2015?
As before, I'm using the projected numbers from Fangraphs at each position to determine the rankings.
Hey, we're projected to have the best center field in the division! Woo! The bad news is, it's very much of a muchness in the middle of the rankings, with less than half a win separating us in 12th and the Indians in 21st place. That band also covers everyone in the division bar the Rockies, so we aren't expected to pick up much ground here, though at least Pollock's expected solid performance - particularly on defense - makes a change from the long run of Arizona question-marks, stretching back to when we looked at Paul Goldschmidt. If you're curious, he's expected to be better than Adam Eaton (1.8 WAR).
Will the Dodgers really use Ethier, who is due $18 million this year, as a back-up for the minimum-wage rookie Pederson? The latter did put up the first 30-30 season in the 80-year history of the Pacific Coast League last year, and expectations are high, despite not performing in a brief September call-up, going 4-for-28 with no XBH. He likely has the inside track to the job, but if he falters, we may well see him replaced - however, if he's sent down,. a more likely arrangement would by Y*s**l P**g in center and Ethier in right. But if Pederson does stick, then it makes Ethier hellaciously expensive as a fourth outfielder, and I'd expect LA to be looking for a trade partner.
Pagan missed the end of the regular season and the Giants' run to their third World Series in five years, after requiring surgery for a bulging disk in his back. It had bothered him for much of the season, and helped ensure he failed to reach 100 games for the second consecutive season. It's expected he will be healthy in time for Opening Day, but Pagan turns 34 in July, and only the Cubs and Padres are expected to be worse defensively at the position in 2015. I would tend to take the under, because after all, we know the Giants are only any good in seasons where the year is divisible by two...
C'mon, San Diego: you really need to decide whether that first name has one L or two, and stick to it. You can't have it both ways, y'know. The amusing thing here is to see Myers now on the same San Diego team as James Shields, two years after the players were swapped for each other, in a trade that pretty much broke the Internet before a certain butt did so. Myers is a former top 10 prospect, who won Rookie of the Year with Tampa in 2013, despite playing only 88 games, but couldn't live up to that in 2014, posting s 77 OPS+. The Padres will (or Wil) be hoping that was a result of the stress fracture Myers had in his wrist, and that he rebounds strongly in 2015.
Like the Dodgers, the Rockies have an excess of outfielders, albeit of the lower-profile variety: as well as Stubbs, they have Corey Dickerson, Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez. It is at least possible, that Blackmon will see as much playing time there as Stubbs. But it appears they have been offering the former in trade talks, looking to upgrade their pitching staff in exchange for Blackmon's four seasons of control. Stubbs' main problem is his splits: while he torches left-handers, Stubbs only hits righties at a .232 career clip, with a Satanic .666 OPS. That's woeful, considering the Coors effect, and is why Colorado find themselves in last here.
Conclusions
This is perhaps the most evenly-matched category around the diamond, with little to separate the five teams in the division - none are outstanding, but they all have some reason for optimism, based either on past performance or future potential. Pederson certainly comes in with an impressive pedigree, and long-term may end up being the best of the current bunch. However, his lack of major-league experience makes his output far from a sure thing. For the D-backs, we'll hope Pollock can avoid further unfortunate injury and return to the form he showed in early 2014, showing why Eaton became dispensable to the previous regime.
The story so far
Below, you'll find a chart summarizing the findings, which we'll update as we continue this series. For each position, we have awarded the teams a rating of between one and five stars, depending on how strong they are projected to be at the position. Generally, a five-star rating requires them to be among the best in the majors; a four-star one is clearly one of strength; three stars would be about average; two stars is a position of concern; and one star is a gurgling vortex of suck.
Sports on Earth gives the club an Honorable Mention despite the fact it made several upgrades this offseason.
Miami has been notably active this offseason, and General Manager Dan Jennings recently noted the club could look to add another major league piece or two before the start of spring training. While the Marlins added a notable amount of depth to their lineup, the club was not listed as having one of the top ten lineups by Sports on Earth.
The Mariners and Padres should be drastically improved and the Marlins might have a better cast surrounding the game's best power threat, Giancarlo Stanton.
As it did in 2015, Miami's offense will almost certainly rely on Giancarlo Stanton. The club invested in Stanton, and is hoping he can put together another MVP-type season after being hit in the face by a Mike Fiers fastball last September. One of the Marlins' goals was to add offense this offseason, and the organization did so by signing Michael Morse and Ichiro Suzuki and trading for Dee Gordon and Martin Prado.
Christian Yelich spent most of last season in the leadoff spot as Rafael Furcal battled consistent injuries, but should be more effective batting second or third. Morse will likely prove to be a threat either in front of or behind Stanton, with Gordon serving as the basestealing threat the Marlins have lacked in recent seasons. The addition of Prado gives the Marlins another quality veteran bat, with Suzuki coming off the bench.
PECOTA projects the Marlins will score 636 runs, which is just under four (3.9) per game. Given the club's depth, in addition to one of the most productive outfields in baseball also featuring Marcell Ozuna, that number should prove to be notably low. While the Marlins' lineup should produce consistently, an experienced pitching staff should also prove to be beneficial.
Although the Marlins have an expectation with regard to who will start at each position, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro notes Manager Mike Redmond will use several different lineups this spring in order to determine which is most effective.
If Stanton remains in the third spot, he is guaranteed a plate appearance in the first inning. If he drops to fourth, then he potentially can hit with more runners on base.
Prado offers an option to hit either second, fifth or lower. And Morse was signed to protect Stanton, which means he may wind up fourth or fifth.
While several squads throughout the league upgraded their offenses, the Marlins made a handful of quiet but notable moves. Despite the fact that they may not have a top ten lineup in 2015, the Marlins should have an upper tier offense moving forward.
The club was in on James Shields, and is hoping to compete for a title.
The Miami Marlins really want to compete in 2015. Every team begins the offseason with the goal of improving the roster. The San Diego Padres signed James Shields on Monday and have done just that this winter. But the Marlins are not very far behind.
In the past, the Marlins have reportedly been interested in major free agents, only to be outbid by a larger market team. But the Marlins are no longer that small market team. The club's front office, led by General Manager Dan Jennings and President of Baseball Operations Michael Hill, has been notably active. The group has quietly had one of the most productive offseasons, and only added and subtracted when it made sense. Not every move will work out, and that much is expected. The good must just simply outweigh the bad.
It is challenging for most to forget about the 2012 fire sale. Salaries were dumped, veteran players were dealt, and young and unproven prospects were received. Maybe that group, led by Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson deserved a bit more time. Larry Beinfest was the General Manager at the time, and it would not be right to compare him to Jennings because Jennings has not had the title long enough. As of right now, though, Jennings has been significantly more effective. Owner Jeffrey Loria has consistently said (of the 2012 team and moves) it did not work. And maybe he was right.
Ultimately, the Marlins deserve credit for the way they handled the Shields situation. They monitored it closely. They saw a chance to upgrade, but did not want to make a move that would negatively affect the future. And they knew exactly what the parameters were throughout the entire pursuit. In order to make a competitive offer to Shields, the front office likely would have had to receive permission from Loria. So maybe he has changed, too.
The Marlins were among the more active teams this offseason, and that should only prove to be beneficial moving forward. Maybe it is because of the Stanton contract. Or maybe the club just wants to win. What if the Marlins are a piece or two away from competing for a playoff spot? The expectation should be the club will make the necessary moves. Based on this offseason, the expectation should prove to become a reality.
Miami, as a city, is tired of losing. The Dolphins ended the season 8-8. The Heat are simply not the same without Lebron James. The Panthers are attempting to remain competitive. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in a number of days, and the Marlins deserve some attention. Like it or not, the Marlins are actually trying to win. And that should start paying off this April.
Miami was reportedly in on Shields until the end. Here is what the Fish Stripes crew thought of the situation.
Miami reportedly made a competitive proposal to James Shields, and according to ESPN's Buster Olney may have made him the highest offer. So while Shields ultimately ends up in San Diego, did the Marlins lose out, or did they rightfully back off?
Michael Jong: The Marlins tried their best. They made competitive offers to James Shields in the latter stages of the offseason, but the bidding got too high for them and they rightfully bowed out. Shields was a good pitcher at age 32, which makes him more likely to be a good pitcher at age 33 and 34, but the latter years of that contract are still a scary proposition for a low-budget team like Miami. The addition of two wins to a club looking to win now was worth the price tag of $19 million per season, but if the finances were going to get in the way of eventually working out long-term contracts for players like Christian Yelich or Jose Fernandez, the Fish were within reason to not pursue. In the end, they were outbid, but the fact that they were in the race was a good idea to begin with.
Eric Mullen: I was all for the Marlins going after James Shields, even if an $18-$20 million price-tag per year over a span of four years was attached to him. Giancarlo Stanton took a back-loaded deal so that the Marlins could be players in the free agent market to improve the roster, and the addition of a starting pitcher like Shields could have given them one of the more formidable starting rotations in the majors. So if the Marlins did indeed have the largest offer on the table for Shields, then it is, at the very least. a really positive signal from the front-office. Not only does it show that the front office is progressing, in that they are willing to go out and spend money, but they also realize that the way the team is currently constructed is still an impact player or two away from being a definite playoff team. I would have really liked the addition of Shields, but it was nice to see this new-found aggressiveness in the Marlins front-office by getting in a bidding war for a top-tier free-agent.
Daniel Smith: I applaud the Marlins for trying to sign Shields, but I'm fairly happy that it didn't work out. Yes, he would have definitely helped Miami's playoff push, but signing him would not have guaranteed a postseason berth. The terms of the contract Shields wanted were also getting out of hand. Long and expensive contracts are a bad idea for players in their 30s. The Padres will come to regret the 4-year deal they just agreed to. Shields is now, on average, earning close to $20 million dollars a year. I'm not an expert, but I wouldn't pay a pitcher with a career ERA of 3.72 that much money per year.
James Shields' playoff record also concerned me. Imagine if the Marlins signed him and did make the playoffs, and he was a bust like last postseason. There is a lot of pressure on the team to be playing at least .500 ball until Jose Fernandez returns, but Shields was not the answer. The Fish can now use their 12th pick wisely and draft a talented pitcher, to not only replenish the farm system, but also to set themselves up for success in the future as well. Miami can now use the money they saved to try and sign K-Rod and/or Rafael Soriano, as a strong bullpen is always a necessity.
Scott Gelman:Miami certainly would have liked to add James Shields, however the price got too high. The Marlins want to win consistently over the next few seasons, and not signing Shields should enable them to do just that. The fact that the Marlins were aggressive with regard to signing Shields is encouraging, however he likely will not be worth the draft pick, which would be a notable loss for the Marlins. San Diego has built a team through trades and free agency, which as the Marlins learned in 2012, does not always work. Regardless, the Padres owe Shields a notable amount of cash over the next few seasons. The Marlins would have loved to add Shields to balance the rotation until Jose Fernandez returns, but the club was right for acknowledging the costs outweigh the benefits. Miami has a solid rotation and could always upgrade at a more reasonable price.
Jarrett Cowgill- Well, the Marlins tried. I have been on record saying that, unless he could be had at the right price, Miami should stay away from the James Shields sweepstakes. Seems like Jennings and Loria felt differently. San Diego signed Shields for four years in the $75 million range; according to Buster Olney Miami offered more cash. For fans of the Fish this has to be seen as a positive. After taking heat over the past few years for embarking on remarkable salary dumps and fire sales, this shows that the Miami front office is sincerely dedicated to improving the team; right now, at all costs. From a financial standpoint, I think Miami fans should also feel relief. I still contend it would not have been a smart move money wise to tie up $75 million for a pitcher who will inevitably decline; Miami would never have seen good value for that contract in years three and four. So, fans of the Fish wake up in a good spot today: secure in the knowledge that the front office is clearly in “win now” mode, but also happy that Miami did not doom their future financial flexibility by chasing an aging pitcher. Is it April yet?
Tom Hanlon: Boy, have the Marlins dodged a bullet. While it may feel like a slight towards Miami, it makes logistical sense for Shields to choose San Diego, as that is where he resides in the offseason. James Shields has done the Marlins a favor. While it might sting now, committing large sums of money to an aging pitcher would have been devastating to the payroll moving forward. It would have had the potential to limit Miami's ability to sign current and future stars to team friendly contracts (which is the goal). So in the next few years when the Marlins are making consistent pushes in the playoffs, let's all think back to this moment, and be thankful that James Shields chose San Diego.
The media sometimes labels Shields as a "manufactured ace" (or "meme pitcher" if you get your news from twitter). He doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, he doesn't light up the radar gun, and his fWAR perpetually touches the cusp of what analysts consider "top of the rotation."
Strictly speaking, of course James Shields is an ace. Most metrics are going to rate what he did on the field in 2014 as one of the 25 or so best performances for starters in the MLB. Couple that with an fWAR number that ranked right between Cole Hamels and Madison Bumgarner - two unquestioned aces - and it's clear that he is a top-25 pitcher. You always have a good chance to win when James Shields is on the mound (unless you are the 2014 Padres because those guys couldn't score).
With the exciting but still relatively unproven combination of Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross as aces-in-waiting there is still potentially some drama as to whether or not Shields will be the Padres' best pitcher heading into the end of 2015. Shields is a great pitcher who has had a phenomenal career, but there is a ceiling to his performance. Heck, at this point Shields and Ross have been to the same number of All-Star games. But does that make for an ELITE starter or a STEALTH SUPERSTAR TM?
ELEEET
30+ starts, 220+ innings, ERA in the low-3s - it's clockwork awesome at this point in Big Game James' career. At this point his seasons are a bit like a Dire Straits album - you know it will be pretty good, at times brilliant, and you will always have fond memories of it, but it won't hold a candle to Thriller, Master of Puppets, Come Away With Me, or Trap Lord.
But what about when Mark Knopfler left Dire Straits and made some of the best music of his life? In what ways can we expect Shields to ascend in his new surroundings? It is tempting to pencil in every pitching acquisition to experience an automatic bump in production thanks to the San Diego triumvirate of Petco Park factors, savvy coaching from Bud Black and Darren Ballsley, and cheap and plentiful fish tacos. The supposition of success is complicated with Shields. The Padres have never before acquired an established star pitcher at the peak of his powers. 2015 James Shields is a far cry from aging Greg Maddux or pillow-contract Aaron Harang (twinkie contract?). Shields' tenure in San Diego will serve as a much-needed case study on how known commodities benefit from the Petco effect.
While the Trop and Kaufman Stadium could both be considered pitcher's parks, the AL Central and AL East are dramatically different run scoring environments from the NL West. The move to the NL should provide Shields with the standard boost - facing pitchers instead of DHs. Additionally, as an AL-only pitcher up to this point, Shields will be facing a whole new book of hitters who haven't seen him much - this matchup typically favors pitchers. Like when you use the "are you an archaeologist?" line on a new audience. IT KILLS.
The park and league adjustments won't factor in changes in his approach that could take place upon arrival in San DIego. Already an ELITE control pitcher - Big Game James could see his bb/9 drop even further in his less-threatening surroundings. Pitchers like Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, and Andrew Cashner all benefited from increased aggressiveness within Petco's distant walls. Always dependent on sharp secondary stuff, there's a chance we can see Shields rely more on his solid but under-utilized fastball - like how you rely on looks around girls you are obviously too good for.
Another stealthy benefit to the Shields addition is that it indirectly improves the bullpen (ELITE BULLPEN). The former number one pick's greatest strength as a pro has been his ability to consistently take the rock and pitch deep into games. While this saves the bullpen, Shields' addition to an already strong list of rotation candidates forces other talented candidates into relief depth. With Maurer, Torres, and Morrow penciled in as power relievers instead of fifth starter candidates, Bud Black is in an enviable position managing the tragedy of riches. And who doesn't want the Monster Jam PA announcer to yell ELITE BULLPEN during every pitching change?
We know about Shields' durability and pitching acumen. There are however parts of his makeup that aren't captured by advanced metrics. Did you know he has a dynamite pickoff move? More importantly, Shields brings a reputation of fiery temperament coupled with laser-like focus in big moments. He bounces back from bad performances, he stops losing streaks, and he doesn't back down from pressure situations. Even after his poor performance in game 1 of the 2014 World Series, Shields showed major guts by going into hostile territory and pitching an excellent game 5. Ideally, in a do-or-die game you want to send out a pitcher who has been there before and knows how to handle himself (even if you eventually want to send out Ricky Vaughn)
NOT ELEEET
Touching on Shields' playoff record - for a pitcher who built his career around showing up in big games, his postseason stats don't look all that impressive. Granted we are dealing with extremely small sample sizes - but that's what we said about Jake Peavy who is now 1-5 with a 7.98 ERA over 9 postseason starts. Obviously there isn't a 1:1 correlation between postseason stats and future postseason performance, but I don't think you can just type "small sample size!" then curl back up in your snuggie, pretend it never happened, and post another ghetto "prank" video on facebook.
You have to also analyze the reality of his contract situation. When you look at the top-20 most productive pitchers of the last two seasons by fWAR (Shields is #13 by the way) how many of them wouldn't have gotten a better contract offer than the 4 years/$80 million that Shields reportedly got? Throw out old or broken pitchers like Kuroda, and Wainwright and you're left with maybe Phil Hughes and the still living but rapidly necrotizing Justin Verlander.
Max Scherzer is 3 years younger than Shields, but got around 3x as much guaranteed money this offseason. They are both signed through their age-37 seasons. Scherzer will be getting an AAV of around $26 million in those last four seasons whereas Shields will be getting just $19m. It's not an apples to apples comparison since the Nationals are paying a premium to lock up Scherzer in his supposed "prime" years, but the Yankees spent almost as much to lock up an already declining CC Sabathia in 2012. Shields will actually be getting a lighter contract than Kevin Brown got all the way back in 1999 at the age of 34 (6 years, $105m). Are the Padres benefiting from a mismanaged free agency (non-elite sports representation) or do MLB front offices know something we don't?
Predicting Shields' decline is tricky business. On the one hand he is entering his age-33 season. On the other, he hasn't shown a single sign of physical decline. The only statistical dropoff we've seen from him is a drop in k/9, which was accompanied by a precipitous drop in bb/9. Shields has never been overly-dependent on strikeouts, but it seems the drop-off since joining the Royals is due more to coaching factors than any physical decline. The Royals were an ELITE run-prevention unit in the last two seasons. Shields avoided deeper counts by pitching to weak contact - a strategy that worked well all season. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in front of a team that is weaker defensively, but plays in a much duller offensive environment. Shields may show more aggression at Petco and his swinging-strike% and chase% suggest that he can still generate strikeouts when needed.
Shields' repertoire is one of the most encouraging aspects of his supposed aging curve. His fastball velocity is actually higher than it has ever been (average 92.5 mph). This is highly unusual for a pitcher in his 30s, but Shields' velocity has been trending steadily upward his entire career. Though he is not a power pitcher, there was only one starter in the MLB last year that threw harder than Shields at his age. It remains to be seen whether he will lean more on his fastball in Petco Park or continue to try to fool hitters with his sharp secondary stuff.
A four-year deal generally isn't that onerous (unless you went to a private college BOOM). However, this deal goes through Shields' age-37 season - and Shields will be an especially high-mileage arm at 37. High-mileage isn't always bad - there is a big difference between a '96 Dodge Neon with a lot of miles and a glorious W124 Mercedes with a lot of miles. Certain kinds of pitchers age better than others. Shields eschews traditional breaking balls and relies on a very strong cutter and changeup combination, while only occasionally mixing in a knuckle curveball. The way he approaches hitters is almost akin to a left-handed starter. His pitch usage is most similar to guys like Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, and Mark Buehrle. Those guys all stayed successful when the velocity goblins eventually stole their fastball gains. With the cutter and changeup as Shields' "out" pitches, it would seem that he could age better than a starter like CJ Wilson or Tyson Ross. And now we take a moment to remember Roy Halladay riding off into the sunset to become Roy Lelladay.
For many "buyers" of pitching talent, the acquisition of the proverbial ELITE TM pitcher is their gusto in the hypothetical do-or-die game. Obviously, the team has to reach that late-season showdown, or Wild Card play-in, or World Series game 7 for any of this to have relevance, but the thrill behind elite pitching talent is framed around this hypothetical. In the last few seasons it looked like Ross or Cashner had the upside to pitch like top-10 starters - whether they can sustain that remains to be seen. Shields may never break into the mythical upper echelon of ELITE starters (though a great postseason helped propel a statistically similar Madison Bumgarner into that territory), but the value he accumulates over the course of the season should help the Padres get to the point where it actually makes sense to have this conversation.
The Padres made official their signing of James Shields today, the latest piece of San Diego's offseason rebuilding puzzle. Whether or not the Padres manage to also land Cole Hamels, San Diego is a contending team right now.
It's a big leap for the Padres, who haven't topped 77 wins since 2010, and have averaged 86 losses per year since Matt Holliday reached the vicinity of home plate in Game 163 in 2007.
We might have to go back to New York and the golden era of the 1950s to find a time and place comparable to what Southern California has now with the Dodgers, Angels and Padres. Stars abound, and all three teams are legitimate contenders, linked by Interstate 5 running from Los Angeles through Anaheim down to San Diego.
The sport's most complete athlete, Angels American League Most Valuable Player Award winner Mike Trout, and its best pitcher, Dodgers National League MVP and Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw, play here. Albert Pujols, Trout's partner, is arguably the best player of his generation. Matt Kemp, the new Padre and far from done at 30, preceded Trout as the game's premier all-around player in many minds. The Angels led the Majors in 2014 with 98 wins; the Dodgers were fourth with 94.
Baseball fans in the land of sand, waves and palm trees never have had it so good.
That made me wonder. The Padres are the newest of the three teams, having started in 1969. When have the Dodgers, Padres and Angels been good, together?
The answer: not often
In the 46 years there have been three teams in Southern California, the Dodgers, Padres and Angels have all finished at .500 or better in the same season just eight times, the last time coming in 2007 when the Angels (92-70) won the American League West, the Padres (89-74) lost to Rocktober in the wild card tiebreaker, and the Dodgers (82-80) went along for the ride.
In 2014, the three teams combined for a .553 winning percentage, fueled by the Angels (98-64) owning the best record in baseball, the Dodgers (94-68) having the second-best record in the NL, and the Padres (77-85) managing to win 77 games despite an historically putrid offense. That was the second-best combined winning percentage of these three teams in any season, behind only 2004 (.560), when all three teams won at least 87 games.
Best Southern California baseball years
Year
Dodgers
Padres
Angels
Combined win %
2004
93-69
87-75
92-70
.560
2014
94-68
75-87
98-64
.553
1985
95-67
83-79
90-72
.551
2009
95-67
75-87
97-65
.549
1998
83-79
98-64
85-77
.547
1978
95-67
84-78
87-75
.547
2006
88-74
88-74
89-73
.545
2007
82-80
89-74
94-68
.544
1982
88-74
81-81
93-69
.539
1989
77-83
89-73
91-71
.531
1991
93-69
84-78
81-71
.531
Bold = division winner; Italics = wild card
PECOTA projects the Dodgers (97-65), Angels (91-71) and Padres (85-77) to combine for a .562 winning percentage in 2015, which if it holds would be the best combined showing for all three teams in the same season.
It will be a chore, as the Dodgers have never made the playoffs three seasons in a row, and haven't won 90 games in three straight years since 1976-78. The Padres have only won 90 games four times in their history. The only time those two teams have won 90 games in the same season was 1996.
Will we see a repeat of 1996 nearly two decades later? I don't know, but there is certainly some hefty competition out west this year.
A closer look at the money being doled out to the Padres big free agent acquisition.
When reports of James Shields' signing with the Padres came out, it was reported that it was four years with an optional fifth year. It's right there in Chris Cotillo's news breaking tweet:
Sources: #Padres in agreement with James Shields on four-year deal. Includes club option for fifth season.
For those keeping track, by Monday morning the contract was being reported as 4 years, $75M with an optional fifth year valued at an extra $16M in total contract value.
Today we got some additional updates. First from Jon Heyman:
Putting that all together: 4 years, $75M, an option year salary of $18M with a $2M buyout, a 2015 salary of $10M, salaries from 2016-2018 that add up to $63M and no no-trade-clause.
That 2015 salary is a bit off-putting. Once again the Padres are pinching pennies on the 2015 season and deferring accountability on the contracts they control into the future. Both Shields' and Kemp's contracts are a lot cheaper in 2015 than in future seasons. In Shields' case the lack of a no trade cause brings to mind the Marlins who have set up contracts like this in order to trade the player the following season. I am by no means predicting a future trade though.
What I am saying is that the team is pushing a lot of its chips in on the 2015 season, while not yet bearing the cost of doing so. They will bear that cost in 2016 and beyond. To what ends that affects the ability to build competitive teams remains to be seen. But it will complicate and limit roster decisions going forward. Some quick math on the 2016 roster would put that season's projected payroll commitments at ~$95.5M. That's with Justin Upton, Ian Kennedy, Carlos Quentin, Will Venable, Shawn Kelley, Brandon Morrow, Josh Johnson and Clint Barmes all coming off the books. By comparison, the current 2015 payroll stands at ~$97M. That's a lot of guys leaving and not a lot of room to bring in any replacements.
There's been plenty of ink spilled over the Padres signing of James Shields, with more than a few hot takes. But the hottest take of them all came from the Padres' own Wil Myers this afternoon.
But before we get to that, it helps if you know a little bit about what brought Shields and Myers to San Diego. Shields was picked by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 16th round of 2000 draft before making his debut in 2006. Three seasons later, the Rays signed him to an extension that ran through 2011, with club options for the 2012 through 2014 seasons. Meanwhile in Kansas City, the Royals picked Myers in third round of the 2009 draft. But before he could ever don the uniform, the 2012-2013 offseason saw him sent to Tampa Bay with Patrick Leonard, Mike Montgomery, and Jake Odorizzi in exchange for Shields, Wade Davis, and a player to be named later.
Following the trade, Myers is named the AL Rookie of the Year and the Rays make the playoffs, while the Royals finish third in the AL Central and miss the playoffs by 6 wins. The Rays won the trade! You blew it, Royals! And then the next year Myers spends a bunch of time on the DL and looks awful when he actually does manage to play. On the other hand, Kansas City goes to the World Series. Royals win the trade! Suck it, Rays!
And that brings us to the 2014-2015 offseason, and, well, you know this story. A.J. Preller sleeps for two hours a night, remodeling the 77 win Padres into a playoff contender, bringing on Myers and Shields. Everybody has their hot take on the deal. And here's the hottest take of them all, straight from Wil Myers.
Probably safe to say Padres are the final winner in the Shields trade. Should be an exciting year in San Diego!
The Cuban prospect has several more workouts scheduled, and his agent is hopeful a decision can be made by the end of the month.
After officially becoming a free agent, Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada has continued to workout for several major league clubs. David Hastings, Moncada's agent, told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick he is hoping to have all of the input he needs in order for Moncada to make a decision by February 23.
Moncada is expected to field offers over the next two weeks, with Hastings hoping for a clearer picture of where Moncada will ultimately end up. Moncada would like to report to a club's spring training camp as soon as possible, with pitchers and catchers preparing to report over the next ten days. If the two week time line is followed, Moncada would be able to join a club right when or soon after positions players are due to report.
Since the Dodgers are a large market team, Los Angeles could make sense for Moncada. According to Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers are not as concerned about what Moncada would cost as they are about what future financial limitations would follow if they signed him. The Dodgers' new front office is hoping to restock the club's minor league system, and by signing Moncada, the organization would be restricted from signing an international player for more than $300,000 in each of the subsequent signing periods, according to Trade Rumors. Ken Davidoff of the New York Post spoke to a National League official who said the Dodgers "are going to go crazy" for Moncada.
After adding James Shields, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal believes the Padres may not have the financial stability to pay Moncada. The club has also been linked to Cole Hamels, and San Diego's front office may not be able to produce such a large amount of cash immediately.
Moncada has been compared to Chase Utley and Robinson Cano, and is considered a five-tool prospect. He is the most recent Cuban prospect seeking to join a major league club, and is hoping to be ready for the start of the season.
Just because the Yankees already announced their non-roster invitees doesn't mean they can't still add more pieces. We learned that when the team signed Kyle Davies to a minor league deal and gave him an invitation to spring training. If they're still willing to give uninteresting pieces like Davies a shot then they have to be willing to offer similar deals to players who can actually be of some use in the future. That is why it still makes sense for them to pursue shortstop Everth Cabrera.
Not many teams are very high on Cabrera at the moment, which is likely the reason why he is still out on the free agent market after being designated for assignment by the San Diego Padres in December. After a few seasons of mediocre offense and poor defense, the switch-hitting shortstop exploded on the scene in 2013, hitting .283/.355/.381 with 37 stolen bases in 95 games, earning himself an All-Star appearance and, unfortunately, a 50-game suspension as part of the Biogenesis group. He returned a year later, but could only manage to hit .232/.272/.300 with 18 stolen bases before his season fell apart in July because of a hamstring injury.
Believing that his abilities had eroded and with the PED stigma now surrounding him, the Padres cut ties with him and so far other teams, not even the Mets with their black hole at shortstop, have shown interest in picking him up. The Yankees need to change that. He's not going to be anything close to a savior, but at 28 years old he's still too young to completely give up on. Whether it was chemically fueled or not, he's shown All-Star talent in the past and offers solid speed on the base paths after stealing 37 bases in 2013 and 44 the year before that.
He's also shown the ability to hit lefties at a minimal of at least league-average, which doesn't say much, but is more than what Didi Gregorius has shown over his career. For his career, the Yankees' new shortstop has a 33 wRC+ against lefties, while Cabrera has shown the ability to reach a 94 wRC+ mark against them and even reaching 169 in his 2013 season. Compare that to Stephen Drew's 70 wRC+ and Brendan Ryan's 75 wRC+ and Cabrera could be the organization's best option at shortstop when facing a left-handed pitcher. His poor defense might not make him much of a regular in the field, but if he can hit decently against southpaws, there's no reason he can't be useful as a utility infielder off the bench at some point during the season.
I would advise the Yankees to extend him a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Get him into camp and see what he can and cannot do at this point and if they decide to carry all of Gregorius, Drew, and Ryan, then let him play shortstop at Triple-A. Right now it's expected that Ali Castillo will be Scranton's everyday shortstop, so it's not like he would be getting in the way of anyone useful down there. Maybe he performs better than expected and earns a shot or maybe he doesn't and we forget all about him. If things work out for the best, he still has two years of arbitration eligibility and he might be an improvement over Brendan Ryan.
Even with the Yankees serious about giving Rob Refsnyder and maybe even Jose Pirela a shot, there's still room for Everth Cabrera. If they decide to pass up on him, it'll be because of the steroids issue. They already have to deal with Alex Rodriguez, so there's no way they would go out of their way to bring in another Biogenesis guy, especially after they just got rid of another one in Francisco Cervelli. If they end up looking past him it'll be more for PR reasons than anything else, because, from a pure baseball perspective, there's no reason not to sign him at this point.
Dammit all to hell, I feel dirty simply writing the above. Is it wrong to hope fervently the BABIP fairies, who have had Puig at a .366 clip over his first thousand plate-appearances, move on to sprinkle their magic dust elsewhere? It's the highest BABIP among all 685 major-leaguers with as many PAs since 2002, and would be so nice to see a decline set in. It's not impossible, because his line-drive rate, typically a big factor in BABIP, is nothing special at 16.5%, and while reasonably quick, Puig's no Billy Hamilton. I dunno, maybe he'll just be less irritating this year: worked like that for Bryce Harper. If not though: industrial-strength regression couldn't happen to a better candidate.
Somehow, I'd vagued over how good Pence has been, but he has averaged over five WAR the past couple of seasons. However, he will turn 32 not long after Opening Day, and the projections expect the moderate slide in his value which took place last year, to accelerate - though Pence is still expected to be better than most. His defense may also be a bit of problem, even if he hits another 20 home-runs: Hunter hasn't had a positive value with his glove since he was an Astro in 2009. He's a Giant through the end of 2018, at a cost of $18.5 million per year: I sense he won't be worth that by the time the contract ends, but he seems unlikely be much of an albatross this season.
Not sure who will be more weirded-out by the Padres outfield this year: Arizona or Los Angeles fans, with both sets seeing their former franchise faces now wearing camo on Sundays. At least we're not funding Upton: the Dodgers are chipping in a cool $18 million towards Kemp's salary for the Padres this year, then $3.75 million every season through 2019. Such is the price of signing a player to a long-term contract, immediately after he puts up the highest WAR (8.4) by an NL position player since 2009. Since then? Not so much: 4.6 WAR total over 2012-2014. If that continues, especially if Kemp's arthritic hip comes into play, San Diego will have lots of time to regret this one.
I mentioned last time about the Rockies potentially dealing Blackmon, and the above stats may indicate why, since they would appear better off with Dickerson playing there full time - that WAR is in half the playing time of Blackmon. Dickerson more or less came out of nowhere (an 8th-round pick) to post a 142 OPS+ for Colorado last year, in his sophomore season, although there are some concerns about his defense. He was also a Coors product, with a road OPS 363 points lower than the home figure. Still, with the fifth-best 2014 OPS among qualified NL hitters, he'll certainly get his playing-time this season, it's more a question of at where. If it's RF, Colorado might be okay.
To say the least, it's not an encouraging projection for the D-backs, but I have hopes things might not be as bleak as painted here. I'd like to see Chip Hale basically use a strict platoon: we know that Ross is much better against left-handers, but Peralta's splits last year were also dramatic. His OPS vs RHP was .848, while versus LHP it was only .510. Put the two of them together, and you could get decent production out of the spot. Since we are on the hook for $9.5 million to Cody anyway, with not much chance of trading for anything worthwhile, we might as well squeeze the maximum possible out of him. But based on these numbers, I can't go with other than one star here.
Conclusions
Going by these projections, it's a toss-up whether our worst position will be this one or catcher, but I don't feel anywhere near as concerned about right field. Properly used, I think we can be serviceable, though that would depend on both Ross still being decent against left-handers, and Peralta not being a single-season mirage (like 2009 NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan, who has been worth a total of 0.8 WAR since): it's not unreasonable to say David is the kind of player that baffles most projection systems, having less than 450 minor-league PAs between signing out of indie ball and being called up. Is he the real thing? We certainly hope so.
The story so far
Below, you'll find a chart summarizing the findings, which we'll update as we continue this series. For each position, we have awarded the teams a rating of between one and five stars, depending on how strong they are projected to be at the position. Generally, a five-star rating requires them to be among the best in the majors; a four-star one is clearly one of strength; three stars would be about average; two stars is a position of concern; and one star is a gurgling vortex of suck.
This morning I did my customary check of the day's baseball birthdays, scanned the list for Padres (I'm such a nerd that I'm beyond having to Ctrl-f "SDP"), and spotted six. Of the half-dozen, I noted Jim Beswick and Steve Mura, recalling that they were both on a late-'70s Topps Top Prospects triptych card, and wondered if it was the same one. I flipped to where I keep all my team and multi-player cards, and sure enough. They share card #725 in the 1979 Topps set along with Broderick Perkins.
Jim Beswick, who turns 57 today, had already played his last major league game when this card hit the presses. He was a literal one-hit wonder, singling once in 20 at-bats over 17 games from August 9 through September 30, 1978. He was assigned to AAA Hawaii in 1979, where he got to wear that hat Perkins is pictured in, and spent three full seasons there without getting called back up to San Diego. He headed to the Mexican League to begin 1982, then was picked up by the Angels, and finished out his career with their AA clubs in Holyoke and Nashua that year and the next, respectively.
Steve Mura, who turns 60 today, had more staying power than his cardmate. He pitched poorly in five games at the tail-end of the '78 season, but unlike Beswick, he got another chance. Mura responded with a strong rookie season, in which he posted a 3.08 ERA that he would never match. He transitioned into the rotation the next year, and was adequate, but had a poor showing the following season, 1981. He was then sent to St. Louis in the deal headlined by Ozzie Smith and Garry Templeton. He earned a ring with the Cardinals that year despite being left off the postseason roster, then moved on to the White Sox for six games in 1983. He spent the entirety of '84 with the Phillies' AAA affiliate, then got his last hurrah in 23 games with the A's in '85.
As for Broderick Perkins, I'll get back to you on November 23.
Fox Sports mysteriously got their hands on a copy of James Shields' contract. Who knows how this sort of thing happens, but it's all part of the baseball's seedy underworld of clandestine deals and opium dens.
Ken Rosenthal reports on his Twitter that Shields can opt out of his $75 million deal after just two years.
Shields can opt out of his four-year, $75M deal with Padres after two years, according to a copy of his contract obtained by Fox Sports.
And as Rothenthal states he'd be crazy to give up that kinda guaranteed money at the age of 35. Still it could happen.
Wonko made an interesting point that I hadn't thought about. He mentioned that it's kind of acts like a de facto no-trade clause because if he gets traded to a team he doesn't like (or if it turns out he doesn't like the Padres), he can opt out.
After rumors of 10 teams being interested in him surfaced Thursday afternoon, SB Nation's own Chris Cotillo is reporting that the Houston Astros have signed free agent reliever Joe Thatcher to a minor-league deal.
Source: #Astros in agreement on minor-league deal with Joe Thatcher.
Thatcher becomes the second pitcher to join Houston this week on a minor league deal. On Thursday, the Astros announced they had signed starting pitcher Roberto Hernandez to a minor-league deal.
Last season, Thatcher threw 30 innings with a 3.86 ERA and 27 strikeouts with four walks. He's got a career walk rate of 7.7 percent and a career strikeout rate of 24 percent, though that dipped to 20 percent last season.
Thatcher came up through the Brewers system, but made his MLB debut with the Padres in 2007. He played in San Diego until 2013, when he was traded to Arizona for Ian Kennedy.
He was then traded last summer by Arizona with outfielder Tony Campana to the Angels for a pair of minor leaguers.
Thatcher has appeared in 362 career games with an ERA of 3.40 in 238 innings. He's got a career strikeout rate of 23.9 percent.
What do you think? Who does this bump out of the bullpen? Will Thatcher make the Opening Day roster? Are you glad that the Astros have added another reliever to the mix?
When the All-Star Game comes to San Diego next year, Padres players will be on the visiting team.
This morning, Major League Baseball officially announced that the 2017 All-Star Game would be hosted by the Miami Marlins, making the National League the first to host the midsummer classic for three years in a row. That means some tweaks are being made, because exhibition games have to be fair, or something like that. From MLB's press release:
Given that three consecutive National League ballparks are now scheduled to host the All-Star Game from 2015-2017, MLB has decided that sides will continue to alternate who bats last. Thus, in the 2016 All-Star Game in San Diego, the American League will bat last.
Petco Park finally gets to host an All-Star Game, but the Padres' All-Stars won't get to play for the home team. For some perspective, the All-Star Game has been hosted by the same league in consecutive seasons twice before. The 1950 and 1951 games were hosted by the White Sox and Tigers, respectively, while the 2006 and 2007 games were played in Pittsburgh and San Francisco. In all four of those games, the host league was the home team. So the very first All-Star Game at Petco Park will be an unprecedented break from tradition.
Everyday starter: St Buster of the Flowers (5.8) Backup: Andrew Susac (0.5)
And it's not even close, particularly in terms of offense. Posey scored +24.3 for his hitting, and the next best is the Brewers' Jonathan Lucroy, at +7.1. How good has Posey been so far? In terms of bWAR, the fifth overall pick in the 2008 draft has been worth almost as much by himself, as the rest of the top eight picks from that year combined [23.2 vs. 23.8]. The Rays, Pirates, Royals and Orioles - who picked Tim Beckham, Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer and Brian Matusz respectively, while Posey was still available - must be kicking themselves. He is projected to be worth 3.5 wins more than the next-best catcher in the NL West this year.
There's a lot of bunching in the middle here, with 0.6 wins covering everyone from 11th down to 23rd. I might just have given the Dodgers four stars, but Posey is so far ahead of the pack, that needed to be illustrated. And besides, I have no interest in giving LA the benefit of any doubt. This was definitely a position of weakness for the Dodgers in 2014, and the arrival of Grandal from San Diego will certainly help them. It's not clear how playing time will be split between these two: Ellis is certainly among the top tier of backups at the position, and is being paid $4.25 million this year, so is more expensive than most as well. He should appear fairly often
Amusing to see the Padres lose Grandal, then go right out and get Norris from Oakland, who is projected for exactly the same value, while being considerably younger and cheaper. If you watched the AL wild-card game last September, you'll know about Norris's defensive issues, as he allowed five stolen bases to Kansas City during the 8th and 9th innings, as they came back from four runs down. Expect other teams to take advantage too. San Diego also acquired Federowicz back from the Dodgers as part of the Grandal deal, and no backup in the majors is expected to see more playing time.
It's an odd situation in Colorado, with what could end up being a three-headed beast behind the plate. They signed Hundley to a two-year deal, suggesting they may be fed up with Rosario's defensive struggles, even though he has hit more home-runs over the past three seasons, than anyone else at the position bar Brian McCann. A trade to an American League team, where he can also DH, seemed a sensible possibility when Hundley was signed at the end of December. But at this point in the off-season, with the Rockies' catchers reporting to Salt River Fields in less than a week, the odds of a move appear to have declined.
Everyday starter: Tuffy Gosewisch (0.2) Backup: Oscar Hernandez (0.0)
Here's the bottom line. Our projected everyday catcher would be at best a third-string guy on just about every other team in the majors. No disrespect to Tuffy, whom I love dearly - and don't forget, it likely still puts him among the top 100 baseball catchers on the planet [Would that I ever get into the top hundred at anything]. But it doesn't help the team in 2015. The hope is O'Brien, who gets a token 19 PAs in these projections, will be able to hold down the gig, but that's far from a sure thing. I think we probably won't be quite as bad as painted, because O'Brien will see more playing time and his offense will be better than the others. But if he doesn't stick, it's going to be a long season.
Conclusions
In case you were wondering, the Cubs sit at #15, at 3.1 WAR, with Miguel Montero responsible for 2.4 of those. I think the team's willingness basically to punt the position, and see what happens with more or less unproven talent behind the dish, is quite telling in regard to their real expectations for the season. But fans shouldn't throw O' Brien under the bus if he doesn't deliver a Rookie of the Year level performance in 2015. For we must remember that by the end of his age 24 season, after appearing in 160 major-league games, Montero was worth below replacement level. Patience definitely needs to be part of the game-plan.
The story so far
Below, you'll find a chart summarizing the findings, which we'll update as we continue this series. For each position, we have awarded the teams a rating of between one and five stars, depending on how strong they are projected to be at the position. Generally, a five-star rating requires them to be among the best in the majors; a four-star one is clearly one of strength; three stars would be about average; two stars is a position of concern; and one star is a gurgling vortex of suck.
President of Baseball Operations Michael Hill had some promising comments on the upcoming season. Plus links on a motivated Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton's home-run derby odds, the 2017 Baseball Classic, and more.
It was recently announced that the Marlins would host the All-Star game in 2017. The Marlins are also hoping to host the World Baseball Classic in the spring of 2017, as well.
The Marlins are looking to upgrade the back end of their bullpen, and looked in Francisco Rodriguez as a possible candidate but his asking price is reportedly too high.
The Marlins had a very active offseason, but it was not good enough for ESPN to rank them in the top half of the league in their preseason power rankings.
We move on to the starting pitchers in the NL West. Who has the best ace? Hint: it's not Arizona.
Introduction
I had to change up the method for the starting pitching a bit, though it's still based on the Fangraphs projections. Unlike the position players, there isn't such a clear demarcation of role e.g. primary and backup. If you lose your #2, say, then your #3 would become your #2, your #4 would become your #3, and so on. Life's way too short for that. Also, the Fangraph projections have a sharply-varying number of innings, which clearly plays into the total overall value for each starting pitcher.
So, what I did was, first, decide who were the five expected members of the rotation for each team in the majors, based on the innings thrown. I then re-scaled the WAR to be for 200 innings pitched across the board. Now, better pitchers will throw more innings, but this shouldn't affect the order much, since better pitchers will also be worth more "WAR per inning," which is basically what I'm using here. You can find the table of all 150 starting pitchers which resulted here, should you be interested. I ordered a rotation by this, so team's #1 pitcher may or may not who is generally regarded as that [translation: you wanna sit down before reading who our ace is gonna be!].
Note: the rankings and star ratings are based on this overall list: so players are being compared against all starting pitchers, not just, say, other #3 pitchers. If you're in the top 20% (thirty pitchers), you get five stars; the next 20% (31-60) get four stars, and so on all the way down. If talent was evenly distributed, then you would find each team with a five-star pitcher, a four-star pitcher and so on down to all 30 with a one-star pitcher. So you should look to see if a team has a pitcher with more or less stars than expected for his slot, to judge whether a team is strong or weak there. All clear?
This is my unsurprised face. Kershaw ranks top in overall WAR, in part because he's projected to throw 214 innings this season, but in WAR per 200, he comes in fractionally behind both Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez. Kershaw is only 26, but has already won three Cy Young awards and an MVP. In the integrated era, less than a handful of players have piled up more WAR to his age, almost all throwing more innings - so barring injury, seems likely to become the most dominating pitcher of our generation. Of course, we can always hope for a Lincecum-like inexplicable ineffectiveness, like what we saw on one glorious night at Chase last year...
After his mildly-impressive performance in the 2014 World Series (though it was no Big Unit), Bumgarner returns to anchor the San Francisco rotation. There is some concern over what impact his heavy workload might have: He threw 217.1 regular season innings, then another 52.2 during the playoffs (the most ever in a single post-season), for a total of 270 innings. That's an awful lot - by recent standards, at least, since RJ threw a total of 291 in his World Series campaign. He did okay in 2002, as I recall - merely producing the best single season by a National League pitcher since 1973. Damn, the D-backs own the top five spots on that list.] I think Bumgarner will be okay.
San Diego's shiny new acquisition, the jewel in their very active winter is... expected to be okay, I s'pose. But there are 33 pitchers in the majors predicted to be more effective over 200 IP this year, one of the reasons I'm glad we didn't put all our eggs in the Shields' basket. Pitching in Petco will help his raw ERA, and at least this year of his contract is fairly cheap ($10 million), so his production should be reasonable value. It's more the rest of the deal which I'd be concerned about if I was a Padres fan, since his salary more than doubles for 2016 and beyond. Still, a far cry from the time whee Shields was demanding a 'Zach Greinke deal'. Missed it by that much: only $72 million.
Signed to a two-year, $25 million deal in September last year, and you can't blame them for wanting to lock him up since, as our friends atPurple Rownoted, de la Rosa has pitched better at Coors than on the road over the past four seasons. They reckon it's due "to the way he controls his breaking ball and mixes up his pitches," but whatever the reason, he's an impressive 44-14 lifetime there. The contract covers his age 34 and 35 seasons, so I probably wouldn't have gone any longer than two seasons. My major concern might be durability: over the past five years, he has averaged only 19 starts per season, though much of the lost time was due to TJ surgery in June 2011.
Whhaaaaaaatttt? I hope you took my advice above about sitting, or at least, that you didn't bang your head too hard on the way down. I can see where this comes from, as Cahill's K-rate soared last year: he fanned 8.5 per nine innings, compared to only 5.9 for his career to that point. So if he can maintain this and simply not walk 4.5 per nine, the potential is there. But there's more to it than dropping the word "simply" in a sentence. Given we're paying him $12 million regardless, I imagine he will start in the rotation, and hopefully his BABIP will regress from the hefty .356 figure shown last year. If not, I expect Dave Stewart to have a short leash, given the number of alternatives available.
Conclusions
There's nothing here we didn't know: the Diamondbacks don't have anyone who projects as remotely close to being an ace. In fact, they don't seem to have anyone who projects in the top half of major-league starters [there are a couple of candidates who might, except they weren't predicted to have enough innings to get into the rotation for this analysis. More on those later]. I think we have a fair amount of potential upside, whether through developing youth or bounceback (Cahill and Jeremy Hellickson), but the key word there is "potential", and that's by no means a sure thing. The rotation is clearly the biggest question-mark going into the season, and concerns are understandable.
/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3363128/star-icon.0.png){kind=icon}
