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Arizona Diamondbacks new TV deal: $1.5 billion plus

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Remember those reports a few days ago that said our new TV deal would be worth more than a billion dollars. Turns out that was just a little short. As in $500 million short. Glad we waited.

The reports last week were just too vague for me to be able to write anything up, with lines like "Sources would not provide details of the agreement, such as specific financial terms or even the length of the contract." Really, that's just too speculative for my palate. The new information seems more solid: while it is still not precise with regard to value or length, the basic elements appear to be:

  • The deal is for 20 years.
  • The price "guarantees the club north of $1.5 billion"
  • Also included: a stake in Fox Sports Arizona.

Breaking it down, this would appear to lead to the club getting around $80 million per year for the rights to their games, which would be 2.5 times the current rate, of $31 million per season. There seems little doubt that the additional $50 million in income will be available in payroll, team president Derrick Hall saying that any increase in revenues, "Will go directly toward our (organization). It will help the franchise. It will help the product on the field." That probably won't be of much assistance this year, since the new stream won't come on tap until next season, but should mean the team will be able to make a run at two or more major free-agents next winter.

For the team, it make sense to cash in, because live sports is one of the few products more or less DVR-proof: it's certainly the only thing we watch "live," without fast-forwarding through the commercials. For the cable companies, it makes sense too, despite increasing concern about how long the bubble of increasing TV rights deals can last. We already saw most of Los Angeles unable to watch Dodgers' regular-season games last year, because carriers balked at the sharply increased cost. Industry analyst Maury Brown reckons the current system "will just collapse under its own weight, whether it’s due to the fact that Congress steps in or the carriers finally stop allowing for it."

Will the present model still be around in 2035 when the new deal runs out? If you look back at how different the media landscape 20 years ago, when Intenet access was basically limited to dial-up and mobile phones were roughly the size of a brick, with about the same computing power, that would seem a questionable assumption. Companies like Fox Sports Arizona are going to have adapt to a changing landscape - and the value of the team's stake in the media organization will depend on how well they do that. But for now, how does the Diamondbacks new deal compare to the rest of the National League West?

  • Colorado. The Rockies are the poor men in the division, and that won't change any time soon. They have a ten-year, $200 million deal with ROOT Sports, but it doesn't expire for another six seasons, until the end of 2020. While there is some suggestion the team will get more money towards the back end of the contract, this may be more hope than anything, and it appears the franchise will remain relatively cash-strapped as they try to make the playoffs for the first time since 2009.
  • Los Angeles. The deal heard 'round the world was the one signed by the Dodgers with Time Warner Cable in February 2013, covering 25 years and worth up to eight billion dollars. But there was immediate blowback, because the cost had to come from consumers, and a number of local carriers balked at the price, leaving 70% of homes unable to watch the Dodgers win the NL West in 2014. The picture remains murky for this coming season, with reports last month saying "there is no sign that a resolution will come any time soon."
  • San Diego. They have already gone in to the broadcast business, being a 20% partner in Fox Sports San Diego, with Fox Cable Networks owning the other 80%, after a deal agreed in early 2012. This pays the Padres an escalating amount, which began at $28 million, and could be as high as $75 million by the time it ends in 2031. Interestingly, Time Warner Cable were the last local holdouts, refusing to carry the channel for the first two seasons, until the beginning of last year's campaign.
  • San Francisco. It's going to be a long, long time before the Giants will be able to negotiate a new deal, having signed a 25-year contract with Comcast and Fox Sports, which came into effect before the 2008 season. That means there will be no new deal until 2032. However, the team is reported to get a percentage (about one-third) of the revenue received by Comcast. So as existing deals to their carriers expire and are re-negotiated at a higher level, so will the amount received by the team.

Presuming the final deal is at or close to the numbers expected above, that would seem to put the D-backs in a better situation that the Rockies and Padres, in terms of immediate income per season. It's hard to gauge where the stand in comparison to the Giants, and of course, they're still a long way behind the Dodgers - but at least, we'll be able to watch the 2015 Diamondbacks in action. One can only imagine what the scene at Chase Field was like as negotiations progressed towards this deal...

TV deal


Padres Spring Training day 4 update

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Groins. Media. Moncada. Quack.

By now the pitchers and catchers are in full Spring Training mode, having completed four full days of workouts. The first Spring Training related injury is in the books as Casey Kelly suffered a strained groin earlier today and is being kept off the mound for the time being. Meanwhile Buddy Black and AJ Preller kept busy all day talking to media for Cactus League Media Day. They and the Padres are like crazy popular now thanks to Preller's magical offseason.

For comparison, here is Buddy Black at Cactus League Media Day 2014, talking to literally just a handful of reporters.

Something that was probably on a lot of media minds this morning was the signing of Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada... by the Red Sox. The Padres were one of the teams aggressively pursuing Moncada for the past few months. Corey Brock reported that the team "made him an offer in the neighborhood of $25 million," but he ultimately went with Boston and their $31.5 million signing bonus.

Padres involved 'right up until the end' on Moncada | padres.com

In the longer view, not signing Moncada could pay dividends for the Padres in terms of being able spend more internationally, whereas such teams as the Red Sox, Yankees, D-backs, Rays and Angels are all limited to $300,000 over the 2015-16 and 2016-17 international signing period for amateurs under the age of 23.

In jodes'-former-favorite-Padre news, Everth Cabrera will likely reach a deal with the Orioles soon and is expected at their Spring Training camp tomorrow. Hopefully this is a good sign not only for his baseball career but his off-the-field struggle, and a successful comeback is in his future.

But enough about the guys who aren't at Padres camp.

Kevin Quackenbush is eyeing a successful 2015 season not only for the team, but for himself personally. That means hopefully fewer trips between the minors and the majors for the relief pitcher.

Padres pleased with Quackenbush's growth | padres.com

In a dizzying 23-day stretch that canvassed April and May, Quackenbush, a reliever, was recalled from Triple-A El Paso on five occasions. Sure, players get shuttled back and forth between the big leagues and the Minor Leagues all the time, but this bordered on the ridiculous.

Think of that: five round-trips in 23 days.

But as Corey Brock reminds us, despite Quackenbush's success in 2014 and the confidence in him the Padres have, he still has a lot of work to do in Peoria.

For as well as Quackenbush performed last season, he won't simply be handed a job this spring. The Padres added two power right-handers who peg at the back end of the bullpen -- Shawn Kelley and Brandon Maurer -- to set up Benoit.

In case you need to refresh your memory (I did), 30-year-old Shawn Kelley was acquired from the Yankees last December in exchange for minor league RHP Johnny Barbato. Starting-pitcher-turned-reliever Brandon Maurer came to the Padres from the Mariners in the Seth Smith trade. This is just another example of the Padres' pitching depth, and team depth in general. I'm looking forward to seeing all these guys in action when games begin in just over a week.

The remaining position players are due at camp tomorrow. So Cameron Maybin, who believes he's still the best option in center for San Diego, will be able to fully scope out his competition. The first full workout at Padres camp will take place on Wednesday and a week later, we'll get our first Spring Training game! THIS IS REALLY HAPPENING, YOU GUYS!!

Federowicz, Norris, Nieves and Hedges in the cage #PadresST

A video posted by San Diego Padres (@padres) on

Wire Taps: Nationals' Matt Williams talks Babe Ruth trot; Trea Turner with Padres

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Washington Nationals' skipper Matt Williams won't commit to a definitive date, but the second-year manager said on Tuesday that he will do his Babe Ruth HR trot reenactment at some point in the future. Nats links, tweets, quotes and more...

So, if you're one of those fans who's waiting around for Washington Nationals' skipper Matt Williams to do his Babe Ruth impression, as he promised MASN's F.P. Santangelo he would last year if the Nats ever won ten straight, you might be disappointed... [ed. note - "Do you really, REALLY care about this?"]

"It's probably not appropriate, but in some form or fashion at some point, probably in the privacy of some stadium somewhere, we'll bring it out again..." - Matt Williams on Babe Ruth act, August 2014

The Nationals did win 10 games in a row, of course, from August 10th to 21st, and Williams said then he would do the Babe Ruth trot again, though he qualified that he would wait for a more appropriate time.

"As in any situation with games or any of that," Williams said after the Nationals' 10th win, "timing is important... timing is ultimately important, so I wouldn't imagine that right now is a proper time.

"It's probably not appropriate, but in some form or fashion at some point, probably in the privacy of some stadium somewhere, we'll bring it out again. I don't know when that will be."

"I haven't done it since last time I did it," Williams joked, "but a promise is a promise, so at some point somewhere, can't tell you when that will be, but at some point."


So where will it be? When will it happen? Williams was asked again today when he spoke to reporters at the Nats' Spring Training facilities.

"I have no idea," the second-year skipper said, before offering a more detailed response.

"There's some folks that speculate... it's kind of like a fine wine, right? So if you open that bottle of fine wine, why would you try to age it any further, because it's ready to drink, right? So that being said, why would you try to top what's already been done, right? So that's one avenue of thinking in that regard.

"The other avenue is, people are asking when are you going to do it? I don't have a clue. I'm just trying to get through Spring, man. So we'll see. Maybe we can just keep people hanging."

"It might just show up on YouTube," Williams said toward the end of his press conference. "#VieraRocks."

But enough about that... on to the links...

Starting with a rumor about the Nationals' interest in... K-Rod? Really?:

• "MLB.com confirms those two teams appear to be the frontrunners, but there also may be a third team lurking, perhaps the Nationals." - "Talks continue with K-Rod" - Joe Frisaro, The Fish Pond

But then again...:

NATS BEAT: Matt Williams/Babe Ruth stories + More Zim at 1B

• "Asked when he would do the deed, Williams put an elbow on his desk and looked serious." - "Matt Williams on when he’ll do Babe Ruth impression: ‘I have no idea.’" - Chelsea Janes, The Washington Post

• "One of the Nationals’ biggest question marks entering the season, as has been noted a few times before, is the matter of replacing Tyler Clippard." - "Matt Williams on 8th inning choices, position players and Babe Ruth" - Mark Zuckerman, Nats Insider

• "For the second consecutive day, Williams began the morning on the Space Coast Stadium infield going through fundamental drills with Ryan Zimmerman at first base." - "Nationals Pastime: Williams Day Four roundup (plus, when do we see The Babe?)" - Chris Johnson, MASNSports.com

• "Under the tutelage of manager Matt Williams and the coaching staff, Zimmerman plans to learn the nuances of playing the position." - "Zimmerman taking transition in stride, eager to learn first base" - Bill Ladson, nationals.com

• "VIDEO: Zimmerman on getting adjusted to first base" - Chase Hughes, Nats Insider

• "At just age 22, Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper is entering his fourth season in the majors. This time around, he has just one goal: To stay on the field." - "Bryce Harper's biggest goal in 2015 is to avoid injury" - Matt Snyder, CBSSports.com

NATS BEAT: Bullpen notes

• "'I try to stay ahead of the curve,' Thornton said. 'And I work out. I don’t miss workouts in the offseason.'" - "Nationals' Matt Thornton finding new ways to keep in shape as career winds on" - Tom Schad, Washington Times

• "The righty is showing patience and is aware of the high success rate the Nationals have had with pitchers following Tommy John surgery." - "Davis has first bullpen session since Tommy John surgery" - Bill Ladson, nationals.com

• "The eighth inning used to belong solely to Clippard, but Nationals manager Matt Williams said Tuesday that he might rely on using more matchups..." - "Williams may employ multiple relievers in setup role" - Jamal Collier, nationals.com

• "When a baseball pitcher undergoes Tommy John surgery, the procedure lasts less than two hours. The recovery process takes much longer. Just ask Erik Davis..." - "Right-hander Davis continues road to recovery" - Vytas Mazeika, San Jose Mercury News

NATS MINORS/PTNBL (Trea Turner reports to Padres' camp):

• "Turner addressed his situation when he spokes to reporters. 'There’s a lot of things out of my control,' he said, according to San Diego Union-Tribune." - "Trea Turner, Nationals’ PTBN, reports to Padres’ big league camp" - James Wagner, The Washington Post

• "The elephant in the room, 2014 first-rounder Trea Turner, is sitting between Justin Upton and Jedd Gyorko." - "Quick hits: Yonder Alonso knocking on wood" - Jeff Sanders, UTSanDiego.com

• "Because of a quirky MLB rule that rarely comes into play, Turner isn’t allowed to be traded until one calendar year after he signed his first professional contract." - "With trade to Nats still not official, Turner reports to Padres camp" - Mark Zuckerman, Nats Insider

• "Turner is eligible to be dealt to the Nationals officially on June 13." - "Report: Trea Turner reports to Padres camp" - Byron Kerr, MASNSports.com

• "The curious case of Trea Turner took another twist Tuesday when the Padres' 2014 first-round Draft pick arrived in Peoria, a surprise addition to big league camp." - "Padres bring prospect Turner to Majors camp" - Corey Brock, padres.com

• "The roster, obtained by MASNSports.com, includes the likes of Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Erick Fedde, Nick Pivetta, Joe Ross, Wander Suero, Austin Voth, Jakson Reetz..." - "A rundown of the Nationals' 2015 minor league early camp roster" - Byron Kerr, MASNSports.com

DC Baseball History Section: Bert Griffith; Frank Robinson

• "I’m looking forward to coming back to Washington," Robinson said. "It will be a positive experience under these circumstances." - "Nationals doing the right thing by finally honoring Frank Robinson" - Thom Loverro, Washington Times

• "A 1924 Washington outfielder named Bert (Buck) Griffith had a grandson. That grandson’s name: Matt Williams..." - "Could grandson follow grandfather to the World Series?" - Thomas Boswell, The Washington Post

NL EAST UPDATES: Ichiro vs Joe; Freeman's lineups; Phils' Rule 5 pick; Metsies

Mets: "Lucas Duda was coming off the season of his life." - "Mets’ Lucas Duda Discovers Dangers of Training Too Hard" - Tim Rohan, NYTimes.com

Marlins: "Ichiro was sometimes perplexed by the way he was used by Girardi. Hard lessons were learned in his time with the Yankees." - "Why Ichiro is glad to be a Marlin — and away from Joe Girardi" - Kevin Kernan, New York Post

Braves: "'Having Jason Heyward hitting leadoff for you is not a well-constructed lineup,' said Freeman, and he was referring more to the personnel on the roster, not the lineup decisions of manager Fredi Gonzalez." - "Freeman on ’14 roster: Heyward leading off ‘not well-constructed lineup’" - Jeff Schultz, AJC.com

Phillies: "It should be easier than ever for the Phillies to keep Herrera on the 25-man roster the entire season, because they do not have the pressure of trying to contend." -"Rule 5 pick Herrera looks like a smart gamble" - Bob Brookover, Philadelphia Inquirer

eMb Moment:

Braves daily news digest 2/25: Who will be Atlanta's fifth starter?

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The battle for the fifth starters spot in the Braves rotation is shaping up to be one of the most competitive of spring training.

Braves News

Braves spring training questions: Who becomes the 5th starter?

There is going to be plenty of jobs up for grabs during spring training but one of the most hotly contested battles will be the final spot in the team's starting rotation. The battle will feature a mix of veteran and young players as Wandy Rodriguez and Eric Stults try to out perform prospects Mike Foltynewicz and Manny Banuelos.

Banuelos may be a name to keep an eye on. He enters spring training healthy and without the pitch and inning limits that he carried last season. He's confident and poised to prove his worth this spring.

"I will do everything I can, try to pitch well. The best thing is my arm feels much better than last year, so that's a good thing," he said. "My ball's coming out good. I feel more confident. I'm ready for everything. I want to fight for it, try to get a shot."

Braves CF prospect Mallex Smith: Lofton-like?

Mallex Smith was acquired in from the San Diego Padres in the Justin Upton trade during the offseason. He will begin the season in the minors but his work in the cages and his speed are turning heads at spring training.

Johnson wants Braves offense to think small

Braves third baseman Chris Johnson is embracing Atlanta's new contact focused approach and points to the success of the Kansas City Royals last season as proof that teams don't have to hit home runs to be successful.

"I think [the Royals] showed everybody last year that you can win and not hit a bunch of home runs. You can manufacture runs and wear out good pitching," Johnson said. "Hopefully our offense will get going, we'll learn how to manufacture runs and ride the coattails of the pitching staff."

MLB News

Andre Ethier wants starting job

Andre Ethier told ESPN.com on Tuesday that he would prefer a trade if he was not penciled in as a regular in the Dodgers outfield.

"You're not wishing for it ever to end, but sometimes that opportunity takes you somewhere else," Ethier said. "I'm not going to do anything to sit here and force it. Hopefully it works itself out."

Greinke throws in bullpen, feels 'same as I did last year'

Dodgers pitcher Zach Greinke was shut down for a couple of days last week after receiving a lubricating injection in his elbow. Greinke returned to the mound on Tuesday throwing 24 pitches and recorded no issues or discomfort with the elbow.

The Over The Monster Podcast, Episode 121: Yoan Moncada

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The Red Sox signed Cuban free agent Yoan Moncada so we talk about that.

Maybe you saw it coming, but I didn't. Based on all the reports, there didn't seem to be much chance the Red Sox would be the winners when the Yoan Moncada race ended. The Yankees had the money and the need. The Dodgers had money, money, and money. The Brewers had as much or more need as any organization in the game so, sure, why the heck not? The Padres just buy stuff now. Whatever, buy it.

The Red Sox on the other hand are different. They have a good farm system, they have young players locked up long term, ergo they don't need Yoan Moncada. Sure they were over the international spending limit already, so the penalty was going to be incurred either way, but the Yankees are in the same position and they're the Yankee$. Point is, Moncada ain't coming to Boston.

Except yes he is!

So this is a very exciting podcast about a very exciting prospect the Red Sox signed. As when the Red Sox do anything, there are questions. What exactly is Moncada good at? Where will he start in the system? When can we expect to see him in Boston? Where does he fit in their minor league rankings? Does this mean they're trading the rest of the farm for Cole Hamels? (NO!) All these questions are covered in this, the 121st OTM Podcast.

After that, because why the heck not, we talk a bit about the outfield situation, starting right fielder Shane Victorino, what happens to Mookie Betts if Victorino is healthy, and where Allen Craig fits in to all of this.

As always, I welcome your thoughts either here in the comments section or over email (matthew dot kory at gmail). Hope you enjoy the podcast and thanks for listening.

Check Out Baseball Podcasts at Blog Talk Radio with The Over The Monster Podcast on BlogTalkRadio

Colorado Rockies fans have reasons to be optimistic, contrary to popular opinion

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A lot of national media, and a good portion of local media for that matter, view the Rockies as a franchise going nowhere, but that is not the case, and here's why.

The opinion of many in the national media, local media and even the fan base is that the Colorado Rockies are some sort of moribund franchise without direction for the future.

That opinion was expressed most recently in a column for Grantland by Michael Baumann addressing the biggest question for each NL team in Spring Training. His question for the Rockies was "Y'all want a hug?" He then went on to express this opinion of the team:

I’m serious. I spent forever trying to give Rockies fans a reason to be optimistic other than "Maybe Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez won’t get hurt this year?" but I struck out. The Rockies are going to be bad again, and unlike other similarly bad teams, they don’t have a great chance of bouncing off rock bottom and back into contention thanks to their farm system or front office.

Well, maybe Baumann can't find reasons aside from Troy Tulowitzki's health for Rockies fans to be optimistic, but I can. Here are several of them.

Carlos Gonzalez's fingers are free of fatty masses with tentacles

Remember Carlos Gonzalez, he of four straight 20-20 seasons and All-Star appearances in 2012 and 2013? The guy who does these types of things?

CargoDive

Well, after a 2014 season that saw him limited in both games and production because of injuries, he's back. If he can return the a Carlos Gonzalez-like level of production for even the 110 games he played in 2013 instead of the .238/.292/.431 numbers he posted in 70 games in 2014, it's a big boost to the Rockies both offensively and defensively.

They have a 24-year-old third baseman who is already a two-time Gold Glove winner

Forget what Nolan Arenado has done at the plate. His .287/.328/.500 line with 54 extra-base hits in 432 at bats in 2014 is nothing to sneeze at. But at just 24, Arenado is already one of the premier defensive players in all of baseball. Since the start of 2013, Arenado is fourth among all players in Defensive Runs Saved, an accumulating stat, despite spending a month of 2013 in AAA and missing six weeks in 2014 with a broken finger. If and when his bat, which he was touted for in the minors, catches up to his glove, Arenado is on his way to being one of the premier players in the game.

Corey Dickerson can hit

An eighth-round draft pick in 2010 and never a highly-touted prospect, all Dickerson has done throughout his professional career is go to whatever level the Rockies send him to and hit the ball. And when he hits the ball, it tends to go a long way.

Dickerson played his first full big league season as a 25-year-old in 2014 and again hit the cover off the ball, posting a .312/.364/.567 line with a team-leading 24 home runs. In the offseason, MLB Network rated him as the eighth-best left fielder in baseball entering 2015. Like Arenado, he should be a fun one to watch for years to come.

Tyler Matzek seems to have his control problems figured out

The Rockies made Matzek the 11th overall pick in 2009, and he then proceeded to walk the farm throughout his minor league career, with at least 4.9 walks per nine innings in each of his first four professional seasons. The turnaround for Matzek came in 2014, as he walked 31 in 66 2/3 innings at Colorado Springs before a call up to Denver. When he got to the big leagues, he really turned it on, with his BB/9 dropping to just 3.4, and he posted a 4.05 ERA in 117 2/3 innings. In fact, Matzek had a better ERA- than fellow 23-year-olds Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole and Shelby Miller in 2014. Imagine the hype if he'd put up the raw numbers of any of those three, but he plays at Coors Field, so he gets ignored, which is completely unfair. But that's a different article. Matzek put an exclamation point on his strong rookie season with a complete game shutout of the Padres on September 5 at Coors Field.

That right there is something to be optimistic about.

The cavalry is coming

While Baumann doesn't see any hope for the Rockies in their farm system, those who actually evaluate farm systems disagree. The Rockies have four starting pitchers that were ranked in some or all of the various top 100 prospects lists released by various publications recently.

The biggest name among the four is the third overall pick in 2013, righty Jon Gray. Gray spent 2014 working hard on his changeup at AA Tulsa and has by some accounts developed it into a plus pitch to go with his fastball that can reach into the mid-to-upper 90s and a slider that can be devastating. Fellow righty Eddie Butler made his big league debut in 2014 and is 15th on Keith Law's list of the top 20 impact prospects for 2015.

Lefty Tyler Anderson, the Rockies' top pick in 2011, is less heralded than Gray and Butler, but outperformed both of them in Tulsa last season with a 1.98 ERA in 118 innings. Farther from the big leagues is 2014 first-rounder and Denver native Kyle Freeland. The lefty was regarded as something of a high floor, low ceiling type out of Evansville, but flashed a mid-90s fastball in his pro debut to get onto the prospects radar.

There are bats in the minors, too

Despite all of those arms, there are some who think the Rockies best prospect is 20-year-old outfielder David Dahl. Dahl broke out in 2014, hitting .299/.335/.492 with 14 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 512 at bats between Asheville and Modesto. Dahl wasn't the only one hitting in Asheville, fellow 20-year-olds Ryan McMahon and Raimel Tapia also had strong 2014 seasons and earned some attention. While none of those three are in the Rockies' immediate plans, they all have bright futures to be optimistic about.

There you have it, Rockies fans, plenty of reasons to be optimistic heading into 2015.

Oh yeah, Troy Tulowitzki is healthy too, and when that's the case he's the best player in baseball not named Trout.

Joc Pederson's troubling trend

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Joc Pederson, the Dodgers' center-fielder-to-be, has been nothing short of dominant during his minor league career. Despite that stellar production, he's not a lock for stardom.

The Dodgers, suffering from the enviable position (at least for a team with a near limitless checkbook) of controlling six potential league average (or better) outfielders in a declining offensive era, shipped off faux center fielder Matt Kemp in a mid-December deal with the interdivision Padres, (likely) paving the way for one of the club’s top prospects: Joc Pederson.

Pederson, a former 11th round pick in 2010, has been a dominant force since digging in against Pioneer League pitching during his first extended action in pro ball. He hit .353/.429/.568 with Ogden as a 19-year-old in 2011; followed that up by nearly jumping straight into High Class A without missing a beat the next year (.313/.396/.516); showed up once again when the organization pushed him up to the Southern League (.278/.381/.497); and had a career year feasting off PCL pitching last season (.303/.435/.582) before earning a brief call up down the stretch.

Just the fourth MiLB’er to post a 30/30 season since 2006 (George Springer, Grant Desme, and Terry Evans), the Dodgers’ center-fielder-to-be has never posted a Weighted Runs Created Plus total below 137 at any level in which he received more than 100 plate appearances. He would finish second in the Pioneer League with a 148, tied with the sixth best mark in the Florida State League (137), third in the Southern League (155), and first in the PCL last season (167, fourth best in the minors). He’s easily been one of – and most likely the – top performer in the minors over the last four-plus seasons.

Pederson offers up gobs of potential – above-average power and speed, a career walk rate north of 14%, the ability to man center field effectively – but he isn’t a certainty for stardom. In fact, it could be just the opposite. As the Dodgers’ front office aggressively pushed the burgeoning big leaguer quickly through the minor leagues, it appeared that Pederson handled each promotion with aplomb. But his once modest strikeout rate has become increasingly concerning with each stop.

After swinging-and-missing just 16.2% of the time in the Florida State League, Pederson’s K-rate spiked to 22.0% during his action in Class AA and once again to a career worst 26.9% last season. Within two seasons time it’s jumped 66%.

Going back to 2006, the first season of minor league data available on FanGraphs, the list of productive major league bats to strike out in more than 26% of their plate appearances in either Class AAA league is quite small (400+ plate appearances): Ryan Ludwick, Brandon Moss, Chris Dickerson, and Justin Ruggiano. None would become a star. Their career wRC+ totals:

Ludwick: 110 (3,986 PA)

Moss: 115 (2,130 PA)

Dickerson: 97 (820 PA)

Ruggiano: 106 (1,249 PA)

Taking it one step further and comparing Pederson to the average, Pederson’s 26.9% K-rate last season was 37% higher than the Class AAA average. So here’s a list of additional solid big league bats to strike out at a rate 35% more often than the Triple-A average since 2006:

Justin Maxwell: 97 wRC+ (919 PA)

Chris Carter: 114 (1,541 PA)

The group of six, on the whole, leaves an awful lot to be desired for one of the annual top minor league performers.

Adding insult to injury, CAL, the Comparison And Likeness prospect classification system I developed, isn’t a fan either. Entering his age-23 season, his Top 5 comparisons:

Brett Jackson (75 wRC+ in 147 PA)

Kirk Nieuwenhuis (98 wRC+ in 552 PA)

Trayvon Robinson (70 wRC+ in 319 PA)

Joe Benson (67 wRC+ in 74 PA)

Adam Jones (109 wRC+ in 4,487 PA)

In the end, Pederson has nothing to prove at the minor league level. Soon enough we’ll have a good idea of what caliber big league hitter he’ll be.

. . .

For more prospect analysis, check out Joe's newest book, The 2015 Prospect Digest Handbook, here.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.

For more analysis check out Joe Werner's site, ProspectDigest.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @JoltinJoey

Swihart for Hamels: Why the Red Sox should pull the trigger

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The Red Sox are hesitant to deal their highly regarded prospect. Here's why they should feel comfortable doing so.

I find the Red Sox as the most interesting team entering the 2015 season. They failed to re-sign 2013 playoff hero Jon Lester this offseason, but spent big signing Pablo Sandoval to a five-year, $95 million contract, and Hanley Ramirez to a four-year, $88 million contract. They added rotation depth when they acquired Rick Porcello from the Tigers for Yoenis Cespedes. They also traded for Wade Miley and signed Justin Masterson to a one-year contract. Oh, and let's not forget the signing that blew up everyone's Twitter this week, Yoan Moncada.

The Red Sox have a plethora of bats in their organization. However, my main fear is that they don't have an ace going into 2015. Rumors have been spreading in the Twitterspherethat the Red Sox are one of the main teams in contention for acquiring lefty Cole Hamels from the Phillies. Originally on his no-trade list, Hamels has now stated that he would welcome a trade to the Red Sox. The 31 year-old has four years and $96 million remaining on his contract with an option for 2019 that could bring his total value to $110 million. However, the asking price is pretty high for the talented lefty. Rumor has it the Phillies originally asked for a package including both Mookie Betts and Blake Swihart. Wait, Hamels for Allen Craig isn't good enough? He used to be really good. Jokes aside, the new rumor is the Phillies will likely take a package with Betts OR Swihart in it. The Red Sox still aren't jumping.

Quick flashback

The Red Sox don't have the best track record of late when dealing prospects. The Sox traded away a pair of top prospects who you can say turned out "all right." They shipped away highly regarded prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Padres in 2010. They also traded Hanley Ramirez in 2005 to the Marlins. But hey, they did get him back--on the wrong side of 30. They turned out decent, don't you think? It would make sense that the Red Sox are tending to err on the side of caution when dealing prospects. Let's not forget that the Hanley Ramirez trade landed them ace Josh Beckett who led the Red Sox to their 2007 World Series championship. Could Hamels be the next Josh Beckett and lead the Red Sox to a World Series this season?

Why should the Red Sox feel comfortable this time trading their highly regarded prospect?

They already have a pretty good player behind the plate in Christian Vazquez. Let's take a look at how Swihart's 2014 Double-A stats compare to Vazquez' 2013 Double-A stats. I'm using their Double-A stats because they played roughly the same amount of games at the Double-A level.

PlayerGAVGOBPHRISOwOBAwRC+
Swihart92.300.35312.187.372131
Vazquez96.289.3765.105.357119


Swihart has a tremendous bat, and is undoubtedly the better offensively of the two. However, Vazquez provides tremendous value defensively behind the plate, and the numbers support it. Baseball Prospectus recently released a new mixed model to measure catcher framing. If you'd like to learn more and be completely overwhelmed by the statistics, click on the link to read more. It moves away from the old RPM "With or Without You" (WOWY) method to a new mixed model called "CSAA"- "Called Strikes Above Average."

RPM also suffered from two limitations. First, because PITCHf/x data was not publicly available before 2008, RPM could only measure catcher framing from recent seasons. Second, it relied primarily on a piecemeal approach to identifying the individual contributions of pitchers, umpires and catchers.

...

This new model allows simultaneous consideration of pitcher, catcher, batter, umpire, PITCHf/x, and other data for each taken pitch over the course of a season, and by controlling for each of their respective contributions will predict how many called strikes above (or below) average each such participant was worth during a particular season.

Pitch framing is a recent development in quantifying catcher defensive metrics, an art that for many years was undervalued. Vazquez' sample size is rather small with only 55 games played and a sample size of 3,973 pitches, but he was extremely impressive. According to the new CSAA model, if Vazquez had a sample size of 7,000 pitches, he would have saved the Red Sox an impressive 31 runs which was good for third best in the majors behind only Hank Conger's 37 and Rene Rivera's 35.

If you're not aware of StatCorner, it has a large amount of data on catcher framing statistics. It has data on zBall% (the percentage of pitches caught in the strike zone, but called a ball) and oStr% (percentage of pitches caught outside the strike zone, called a strike). By using these two stats we can find +calls (amount of strikes a catcher has added or lost for pitchers). Here's a look at his stats according to StatCorner.

SamplezBall%oStr%+Calls
397311.29.992


He has a smaller sample size among the top catchers, but he still finished ninth best in the big leagues with 92 +calls. I set the minimum sample size at 1,000 to see where he finished in oStr% and zBall%. His 9.9 oStr% was tied with David Ross for the best in baseball. His 11.2 zBall% was good for 15th best in baseball. Let's not forget that Vazquez also threw out 15 of 29 on stolen base attempts. However, can Vazquez' bat be sufficient enough to keep him in the lineup?

RE24 is an excellent tool that tells us how a player's offensive effectiveness affects the run expectancy for his club throughout the season. RE24 is context-dependent, so there is a higher value placed on at-bats with runners on base than with the bases empty. League average RE24 is 0, so any positive numbers means that the player is producing more runs for his team than an average big leaguer put in the same situations.

Vazquez produced a 0.58 RE24 meaning that he was slightly above-average in his opportunities at the plate and his effectiveness in raising his teams run expectancy. For what it's worth, Vazquez had a higher RE24 than everyone on the Red Sox with 100 plate appearances except David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Daniel Nava, Mookie Betts, and Yoenis Cespedes. Meaning, he had a better RE24 in 2014 than Dustin Pedroia and Allen Craig. Quite a bit better than you would have guessed from a rookie who hit .240, huh?

As I stated, Swihart is the better hitting prospect, but that's exactly what he is--a prospect. Here's a very interesting piece on how well Baseball America's top 100 prospects fair at the Major League level. I highly suggest you read it for yourself. Summed up, roughly 70% of Baseball America's top 100 prospects fail or can be considered busts. (Sorry Sox fans, the success of Hanley and Rizzo must sting a little worse right now.) Also, position players ranked 11-20 (Swihart is ranked 17th) bust 40% of the time. That's quite the risk to turn down a proven Hamels with Swihart being the main piece in the deal.

Hamels will bring postseason experience to an inexperienced rotation.

Hamels is a winner in the postseason. During the Phillies 2008 World Series title run, Hamels racked up 35 innings over five starts and won four games in route to a World Series MVP. Should the Red Sox make the playoffs, and assuming they have the same rotation they currently have, Red Sox fans have a reason for concern. Hamels has 13 starts in the postseason alone. Buchholz, Kelly, Miley, Porcello, and Masterson combined have 11 starts.  Take note that Hamels had an awful (yes, that is an understatement) 2009 postseason in which he allowed 7 HR in 19 innings with a HR/FB% of 26.9% Definitely a forgettable postseason. That is why I used xFIP for the comparisons as xFIP replaces a pitcher's home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed based on the number of fly balls they they surrendered assuming a league average home run to fly ball ratio. Home run rates are unstable over time and Hamels' 26.9% HR/FB% in 2009 is an excellent example.

PlayerGGSIPxFIP
Hamels131381.23.31
Buchholz5525.24.31
Kelly11429.13.61
Masterson10011.24.05
Porcello8216.13.11


Hamels has accumulated 81.2 innings in the postseason. The current Red Sox rotation has 83 innings combined. Take note that Wade Miley has yet to make an appearance in the postseason.

I feel that this trade (opportunity) can be the difference to get the Red Sox over the top and win the World Series. I believe the Red Sox should take the risk of dealing Swihart for a proven ace in Hamels. It's not certain that Swihart will even pan out at the Major League level, and the Red Sox already have a fairly good player in Vazquez behind the plate. The addition of Hamels adds an ace to the front-end of the rotation and valuable postseason experience that the Red Sox need.


All data courtesy of Fangraphs, Statcorner, and Baseball Prospectus.

Brandon Decker is a contributor at Beyond The Box Score. You can find him on Twitter @bdeck02.


2015 in the NL West: #5 pitcher

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And so we come to the end of the rotation. Who's backing things up around our division? And what about those not included?

See the first entry on pitching for an explanation of the method being used here.

#1: Dodgers. Brett Anderson (#69 overall, 2.0 WAR)

Finally, a chink in the Los Angeles armor: while #1-4, their rotation is almost as good as anyone, it's as shallow as a Hollywood after-party. Anderson has been solid when healthy, with a career ERA+ of 112; but the last part is what matters, since there are serious questions about his health. Over 2011-2014, he has averaged only eight starts and 52 innings per year. Potential alternative, Brandon Beachy, is little better. He's Hudsoning, i.e. rehabbing from his second Tommy John surgery, and last threw a major-league pitch in August 2013. If there's bad luck with health here, the Dodgers' campaign could quickly be thrown into significant disarray.

#2. Rockies. Kyle Kendrick (#92, 1.6)

This is a late addition, Kendrick having been signed by the Rockies earlier this month to a one-year $5.5 million contract, after I drew up the initial chart; he will probably be their #3 or 4 in reality, but the difference at the back end is not hugely significant. Kendrick allowed 25 home-runs last year, pitching for the Phillies, and that's not a good omen for Coors. Still, the intent is to eat innings in a season where Colorado aren't seriously expected to contend, and allow prospects like Eddie Butler and Jon Gray time to develop. Or in the former's case, show health,since both his regular campaign and AFL season were impacted by shoulder soreness. Never a good sign.

#3. Padres. Odrisamer Despaigne (#138, 0.5)

There figures to be a battle for the fifth spot in San Diego's rotation this spring with Brandon Morrow the other leading contender, and Robbie Erlin + Matt Wisler the other contenders. Morrow is expected to have the best numbers over 200 innings, but has made only ten and six major-league starts in 2013 and 2014 respectively, so health is a reasonable concern. Despaigne came within four outs of the Padres' first no-hitter against the Mets, and had a sparkling 1.83 ERA over eight home starts. Elsewhere, however: not so much. 1-6 with a 5.31 ERA on the road - and he never pitched in Coors. He did lose twice to the Diamondbacks at Chase, however.

#4. Giants. Ryan Vogelsong (#139, 0.5)

The indications are that it won't actually be Vogelsong, with the Giants making another effort to get Tim Lincecum back in the rotation. Given Timmeh is being paid $18 million this year, makes sense they'd want more than long relief, and he projects at 1.4 WAR over 200 innings, which would be a better, two-star option. But as McC note in that link, the trends have all been the wrong way for Lincecum and even they aren't optimistic about him rediscovering his mojo. Doubt we'll see him the opening series, so I'm sure Paul Goldschmidt is hoping Lincecum sticks around at least long enough in the Giants rotation for the four-game set in San Francisco, beginning April 16.

#5: Diamondbacks. Josh Collmenter (#144, 0.4)

Collmenters gets severely downgraded because his numbers have consistently outperformed his peripherals, in particular Josh's strikeout rate. Last year, he struck out only 5.8 per nine innings, ranking him 75th among the 88 qualifying pitchers in the majors. More balls in play = more hits, but last year, Collmenter's BABIP was only .271. While not too far off his career mark (.277), that may not be sustainable. On the other hand, he was "anti-clutch", pitching better with the bases empty (OPS .641) than with RISP (.731), and that may help negate BABIP regression. Let's hope Josh is one of those who can do well, without missing a lot of bats.

Given our raft of candidates, it's worth looking at other names, who didn't pitch enough innings to make the top five and qualify for a slot. Leading these is Patrick Corbin, who projects to be worth 3.1 WAR, which would make him a five-star candidate if he delivered on that. However, we can basically forget any chance of getting the necessary 200 innings from him, and I'm just hoping he shows he's healthy enough to be relied upon in 2016, rather than for great things this year. Chase Anderson projects at 2.1 WAR over 200 IP, and Vidal Nuno 1.8, both solid three stars. However, the projections don't give Archie Bradley or Bronson Arroyo enough innings to extrapolate reasonably.

Conclusions

Virtually every team in the division has uncertainties at this spot, with the projections not necessarily an accurate predictor of who will open the season in that position. Collmenter could end up as our Opening Day starter come April, though I would be happier if he started getting more strikeouts. I think our rotation may be the weakest in the division on Opening Day, but through a combination of those returning from injury and those coming up through the farm system, it's probably going to be better at the end of the year than the beginning. Still, here's hoping to a less-frigid start than 2014, when our rotation had a 6.29 ERA through the first 31 games to the end of April.

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Closer
Bullpen

Chase Headley is one of the most undervalued players in the 2015 fantasy draft class

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Chase Headley is going much, much later than 3B with similar projections.

Chase Headley currently has an NFBC ADP of 224. In Yahoo leagues, it's even lower, at 238. Going by the ZiPS projection system, Headley is of the most undervalued players in the 2015 draft class. His projections are comparable to other 3B going in the top 100, and Headley can be drafted much later, allowing a fantasy owner to invest in other areas of the roster early in drafts to create a stronger overall team.

2014 overview

When a hitter changes something at the plate, his previous production becomes less valuable in trying to evaluate what to expect coming forward. Chase Headley changed something at the plate in the middle of 2014, and he saw a dramatic difference in results.

Chris Jenkins wrote,

Specifically, Headley has returned to his natural grip, which he admits is "unorthodox."

Headley was last using the crossover grip on a regular basis in the epic second-half he produced in 2012, the year he finished as the National League leader with 115 runs batted in and hit 31 homers. He broke a bone in his right hand in spring training of the following season, however, and that made his intertwined grip less workable.

"I struggled when I came back, so I went to a more conventional grip," he said. "I decided to try to stay with it. I gave it a fair number of at bats this year and didn’t feel like I was able to control the barrel like I have in the past.

"I’d take what I thought was a good swing, but then I’d get on top and it rolled over. I thought I was taking the right approach to the ball, so I thought it was time to make an adjustment. So far, so good."

"It lets me feel a little bit shorter to the ball, gives you a little more leverage," said Headley. "It’s not extremely common. Maybe only a few other guys who use it. It’s definitely unorthodox, but it’s something I’ve kinda done my whole life.

"I just trained my eyes to know where my barrel is the way that I swing. It’s hard to untrain. I think that’s a big part of what’s going on."

It isn't clear exactly what date Headley changed his grip, but it appears to be around July 1. Dividing Headley's season in half from those points, Headley's results were night and day. From the start of the season through June (first half), Headley hit .201/.289/.322 with an 81 wRC+. He was utterly useless as a fantasy option. Headley then took off, hitting .277/.360/.414 with a 121 wRC+ from July 1 through the end of the season (second half). The biggest difference in his production was a gigantic increase in BABIP between the halves. Headley's .243 first half BABIP rose over 100 points, to .348, along with a strong rise in line drive%, from 24% to 30%. Headley's career BABIP is .331, which is much more in line with his second half than his first.

It's possible the grip change allowed Headley to control the bat better and barrel up the ball more often, creating better trajectories. This, combined with the normalization of his extremely low first half BABIP, fueled his strong second half. If that is the case, it would mean that Headley is more of the second half hitter than the first half hitter, and his value for 2015 should be adjusted accordingly. It doesn't appear that Headley will ever return to his 2012 form, though, possibly because of back injuries.

Visuals

Headley mentioned above how he felt he was taking good swings yet getting on top of the ball. Here are two examples of Headley getting on top of the ball on pitches that are belt high:

May 16:

May 15, as a RHB:

Those are the type of pitches that should not be buried into the ground. Despite them both going through for hits, hitting the ball into the ground on those pitch locations isn't what you want.

Here's Headley launching a belt high pitch over the fence for a home run on Sept. 22, after the grip change:

Headley hitting a belt high pitch into the second deck at Yankee stadium on August 6:

Headley said he had better control of the bat, and it looked that way.

2015 projections

ZiPS projects a strong season for Headley: .253/.340/.427 with 20 HR, 73 RBI, 9 SB and 74 R. Compare Headley's projection to some other notable 3B:

Player

AVG

OBP

SLG

HR

RBI

R

SB

C. Headley

.253

.340

.427

20

73

74

9

E. Longoria

.255

.330

.441

23

80

76

3

Longoria's NFBC ADP is 57 and Yahoo ADP is 67.

Player

AVG

OBP

SLG

HR

RBI

R

SB

C. Headley

.253

.340

.427

20

73

74

9

D. Wright

.275

.346

.422

13

70

67

11

Wright's NFBC ADP is 102 and Yahoo ADP is 85.

Player

AVG

OBP

SLG

HR

RBI

R

SB

C. Headley

.253

.340

.427

20

73

74

9

K. Seager

.261

.327

.430

21

88

79

9

Seager's NFBC ADP is 61 and his Yahoo ADP is 69.

Headley's ADP is significantly lower than those three players, yet their projections are similar. Finding undervalued assets is a big key to winning fantasy leagues, and Headley is one of the most undervalued players currently by ADP. Go grab Headley to play 3B later on in your draft and invest elsewhere in the top 100.

2015 in the NL West: Closing time

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And into the bullpens we go, starting with the men who'll get to pile up all those shiny, arbitration-friendly saves.

Analysis here gets a little more vague and "finger in the air," because things like WAR don't have as much relevance to bullpen arms as in other positions. Projected ERA seemed about the closest metric. So, let's see who's going to have most confidence in the ninth, and who'll be reaching for the Maalox?

#1. Dodgers: Kenley Jansen (Projected ERA: 2.11)

Right out of the gate, we have a caveat, with Jansen missing the start of the season after having surgery to remove a growth from a bone in his foot. He'll be out 8-12 weeks, the mid-point of which would be about the end of April. That's going to hurt Los Angeles, with no obvious alternates. Joel Peralta? Brandon League? Pedro Baez? Anyone will be a long drop from Jansen, who put up a 2.76 ERA last year, despite being BABIP'd around at a .350 clip. Over the past three years, more than half his outs have come by the K, which puts him among elite company. In terms of the NL, Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel are likely better, but Jansen can't come back soon enough for LA.

#2. Padres: Joaquin Benoit (2.66)

Amusing bit of trivia: up until they signed James Shields, Benoit was the possessor of the most-expensive contract ever given by San Diego to a free-agent player, at the princely sum of $15.5 million. Though his year was slightly curtailed (he had only three appearances after August 26), he certainly lived up to it in 2014, his 1.49 ERA the second-best in the National League (behind the Nationals' Drew Storen at 1.12) of any pitcher with fifty innings of work. He took over as closer from Huston Street after the incumbent was dealt to Anaheim, but could end up following the same road out of town if San Diego don't compete, given his impending free-agent status.

#3. Diamondbacks: Addison Reed (3.31)

Really, the rest of the division, you could pull the names out of a hat and I wouldn't argue with the resulting order. But I'd be pretty satisfied with the projected 65 innings at a 3.31 ERA. Is that plausible? In 2014, Reed's strikeout rate was the highest since becoming a full-time major-leaguer, and the walk rate his lowest. What really hurt him was the long ball, with 11 allowed in 59.1 innings - almost a quarter of all home-runs allowed by our bullpen (47). As we discussed at the All-Star break, if his HR/FB returns to his career average, or even MLB average, that will be a huge help, since 17 of the 31 runs Reed allowed in 2014, came as a result of those blasts.

#4. Giants: Santiago Casilla (3.43)

You may wonder why Casilla's projected numbers are so high, because over the past five years, he has been super-consistent: 50+ innings and a sub-three ERA every time. Clayton Kershaw is the sole other pitcher with that. Kimbrel, At a 2.10 ERA since the start of 2010. Eric O'Flaherty and Koji Uehara are the only pitchers with 200 IP and a better ERA. The problem is, his FIP over that time has been a lot higher, up at 3.47, and I think that's where the prediction comes from. He also fanned only 6.9 batters per nine IP in 2014; league average for relievers was 8.6. That's a fair few of balls in play. Turns 35 in July, but his velocity remained solid last season.

#5. Rockies: LaTroy Hawkins (4.03)

As he goes into his 21st major-league season, you have to respect the venerable Hawkins, one of only three active pitchers who debuted before the D-backs came into existence - born in 1972, he was the oldest pitcher in the majors last season, yet still put up a 3.31 ERA in Coors Field [that's an ERA+ of 129]. Age certainly hasn't slowed him down: over the past four years, he has an ERA+ of 128, averaging 57 appearances. But he's had enough, and he has said this will be his final year, as he wants to spend more time with his family. He has exactly 1,000 major-league appearances, and will likely end his career in the top ten all-time there, with an outside shot at the top five.

Conclusions

We've said it before. Relievers are volatile,and the concept of the "proven closer" is close to a mirage. So it wouldn't surprise me if multiple teams in the division end 2015 with different closers from Opening Day, whether through injury or ineffectiveness. The Diamondbacks are in a bit better shape there than some, as we do appear to have a number of credible candidates if Reed needs to be replaced, or simply a day off: Brad Ziegler and Evan Marshall are perhaps the front-runners. But I'd rather Reed did the job and did it well. He's #9 in the majors for saves over the past three seasons, but his ERA+ in that time is only 97, so it's more a factor of opportunity than effectiveness.

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Bullpen

Spring Training Update For February 27

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In today's update, we have a lot of first basemen, some live batting practice, and a Hall of Famer dropping by camp.

So remember how Carlos Quentin brought a first baseman's glove to camp? He's not the only one. Nearly a dozen players in the big league camp are working on their skills at the position.

Even Will Middlebrooks is getting in on the action. And how's Quentin looking in the infield? Bill Center tackled that question in his regular Fan Chat today.

It is way to early to tell. He's only fielding grounders right now. Won't know more until he appears there in a game.

On the offensive side of things, James Shields tossed the first live batting practice of the spring. He was later joined by Andrew Cashner, who tossed to his former foe Matt Kemp.

Meanwhile, Hall of Famer Dave Winfield has been visiting players around spring training in his capacity as special assistant to MLBA head Tony Clark. Today he dropped by Peoria to schmooze with his old club.

Let's play One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other! Who's the odd man out? Is it Jedd Gyorko, who's not an outfielder? Matt Kemp, who missed the memo about sleeves? Or Carlos Quentin, who has a snowball's chance in hell of having a productive season? Let us know in the comments.

2015 in the NL West: Bullpens

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Technically, that would be the rest of the bullpen except for the closer, since we covered those on Thursday. But let's not get bogged down in technicalities. shall we?

For this final installment, I've gone back to Fangraphs projections, and am going off the total expected WAR for a team's relief contingent - with one adjustment, removing the contribution of the expected closer. How do the rest of the relief arms stack up?

1. Rockies (2.0 WAR)

I like what Colorado has done: they've realized recently that reliever volatility means there's no point in spending big or trading away prospects for relief arms. Their big off-season acquisition was LaTroy Hawkins, who'll get $2.25 million, though more expensive is Boone Logan, signed to a three-year $16.5 million deal before last season, only to go on the DL four times in 2014. However, Adam Ottavino was solid last year, and if Rex Brothers can get back to form, that'll be another formidable weapon. While the raw numbers may never look great, thanks to Coors, and few tasks are as thankless as relief pitching for the Rockies, they've got a decent set of arms.

2. Diamondbacks (1.3 WAR)

There may be huge concerns about our starting pitching, and questions about many spots on the diamond, yet I think our bullpen will, quietly, be pretty good. Evan Marshall came out of nowhere to look very impressive in his rookie campaign, and Oliver Perez anchored solid left-handed relief, an area where we've struggled in previous years. If Brad Ziegler is fully healthy and effective, that's going to be huge, and we also have the returning arms of Matt Reynolds and David Hernandez, plus long-relief in Randall Delgado. If we can avoid a further rash of Tommy John procedures, our relievers should rank pretty far down the list of potential problems in 2015.

3. Padres (0.3 WAR)

All told, the Padres bullpen is worth 1.2 WAR, but three-quarters of that is tied up in closer Joaquin Benoit, and the rest of their options add up to being not much more than replacement level, over more than 450 innings of work. Brandon Maurer and Shawn Kelley are the only one of the other 11 named relievers, plus 'The Others' projected with a positive value. All told, and including Benoit, their expected to put up a 3.47 ERA, basically indistinguishable from the Diamondbacks bullpen, at 3.50. Giving the yawning charm in park factors [last year, Chase Field was 2nd in the majors for overall run inflation, Petco 29th], that's near-complete condemnation.

4. Giants (0.1 WAR)

Almost the same goes for the Giants, with a projected bullpen of ERA of 3.42, despite AT&T being 25th in park factor. The projections don't even have them possessing a lock-down closer, Santiago Casilla's expected ERA actually being fractionally higher than team average, the only franchise in the division for whom that's so. San Francisco does have a number of pitchers better than replacement, but only marginally so. And any good they do is largely negated, since there are less than a handful of relievers in the majors expected to be less valuable than Javier Lopez in 2015. Yet some rank SF among the best bullpens in baseball. This would be why they play the games.

5. Dodgers (-0.1 WAR)

This has the potential to be the Dodgers' biggest weakness, and we'll find out soon enough how good the rest of the bullpen is, with the absence of Kenley Jansen for the first month or so of the season. The frantic scrambling around to cover for him - the LA Times said the team now has "a void" at closer - can only be good news for the rest of the division and, certainly, you look at the rest of the relievers and they don't strike me as being anywhere near as scary as, say, the front four in their rotation. Stay close to Los Angeles, work the pitch counts so the starters can't go deep into games, and try to get to their bullpen might be a worthwhile tactic, especially while Jansen is out.

Conclusions

Well, it's nice to finish on a relatively upbeat note, after what seems like a long, dark journey through an endless void of swirling nothingness, like a binge viewing marathon of Requiem for a Dream, Dancer in the Dark and Grave of the Fireflies. But, hey! After what we've seen in previous installments, I'll happily settle for a bullpen that probably won't suck as bad as other aspects of the 2015 Diamondbacks. Morally speaking, few things are worse than blowing late leads; if that didn't actually happen that much more often in 2014 than the year before, that was largely because we didn't have as many chances. Here's to both more late leads, and solid protection of them.

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Padres Pick Starters For First Two Spring Training Games

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Starters have been chosen. The games are closer than they appear.

In a few days, all your baseball worries are being washed away. This Wednesday, the Padres take the field for their annual charity game against the Seattle Mariners. The question on everyone's mind was who would be the first starter to lead the Padres to victory over the hated Mariners. The answer may surprise you...

Yep. The 38 year old non-roster invitee Jason Lane will be the one taking the mound for the Padres this Wednesday at 12:05pm.  Bud Black stated that Lane would "likely go two innings", then would hand over the reins to two other pitchers, minor leaguers Jason Hancock and Jay Jackson. Lane will face off against Taijuan Walker, the 22 year old right hander for the Mariners.

BUT WHAT ABOUT ANDREW CASHNER?!?!?

Well, Bud is going to make you wait a whole 24 hours more for that.

That'll be a nice start to Thursday's 12:05pm game with both starters presumably also going 2 innings each against the Mariners.

BUT WHAT ABOUT ROBBIE ERLIN?!?!?

Easy, buddy. He'll be there too.

AND SHIELDS?!?!?

So, if you're going to those first two games, these are the starters you'll be checking out in Peoria.

If you're at home for these games, no fear. Wednesday's game can be heard live on MLB.com or seen on tape delay later that night at 9pm Pacific/Midnight eastern time on the MLB Network.

Thursday's game can be heard live on ESPN 1700 and on tape delay later that night at 11pm Pacific or 2am Friday morning in the east on the MLB Network.

Photo Day 2015: Padres and Puppies

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Padres Photo Day was in full swing this morning in Peoria. All the players out at Spring Training took their turns in front of the camera earlier today, and had some fun in between takes as well.

Photo Day always gets me really excited for the season because I know all the pictures taken will be used in upcoming ads and promos and Gaslamp Ball game threads! Plus all the players always seem to have a great time with it, and these days with all the access fans have to the team on social media, we get such an awesome behind-the-scenes look at all the action.

Thankfully the weather didn't rain on the Photo Day parade and the boys were able to stay dry for their pictures.

#PhotoDay #PadresST

A photo posted by San Diego Padres (@padres) on

Photo Day photo. #PadresST

A photo posted by Jesse Agler ⚾️ (@jesseagler) on

"Twitter Mirror" was also a thing at Photo Day this year.

The Padres took requests for players on Twitter and had the guys pose in front of the mirror and then sign their pictures. Some of them took this as an opportunity to show off their creativity and artistic abilities, and others just had fun goofing around.

Padres & Pups!

And this year there were some extra special guests from San Diego's Helen Woodward Animal Center who got to join in on the Photo Day fun while helping promote animal adoption.

They brought puppies to photo day!!!!!!!

A photo posted by Cody Decker (@antiherobaseball) on

The photos will be used for a giveaway at a game this year, so we can stare at Padres & Pups all season long.

What a fun morning! And now that it's over... BACK TO WORK, PADRES!


Dodgers sign Mike Adams to minor-league deal

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Adams was cut loose by the Phillies in October.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have added some bullpen depth, signing right-hander Mike Adamsper a club announcement. The deal is of the minor league variety and includes an invitation to major league Spring Training. The 36-year-old Adams became a free agent when the Philliesdeclined his $6 million 2015 option in October.

With closer Kenley Jansen expected to miss the start of the season, the Dodgers had been reported to be seeking bullpen help, though Los Angeles seemed to have filled that hole with the signing of Dustin McGowan last week. It seems probable that the Dodgers viewed Adams as too good of an option to pass up, given the low risk and potentially high reward.

From 2008-2012, Adams was among the elite relievers in baseball, posting a 1.98 ERA, 197 ERA+, 2.67 FIP, and 3.84 K/BB in 297 appearances for the Padres and Rangers, setting up for the likes of Heath Bell and Joe Nathan. Adams signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the Phillies prior to the 2013 season, but he was limited to just 43.2 innings with the Phillies as he struggled with injuries, including a rotator cuff injury that cost him three months in 2014. He was still reasonably productive in his limited playing time, putting up a 108 ERA+, including a 2.89 ERA in 18.2 innings last season.

The Dodgers seem to have stocked up on high-upside arms with injury histories, as they have added Adams, McGowan, David Aardsma, Chad Gaudin, Erik Bedard, Sergio Santos, Brandon Beachy, Brett Anderson, and Brandon McCarthy over the course of the offseason.

With McGowan, Francisco RodriguezJoba Chamberlain, and now Adams coming off the free agent board in the last week, the market has surely dried up. Rafael Soriano seems to be the only reliever still available with a strong chance of landing a major league deal.

Luke Yoder Is Playing With Lasers

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With just over five weeks left until Opening Day, Padres Head Groundskeeper Luke Yoder has his hands full prepping Petco Park for baseball. That means he's breaking out all the usual equipment: Tractors, tillers, shovels sod, brooms, rakes — and lasers?!

Yep! To make sure the turf at Petco lies just right, Yoder goes high-tech. Measuring the grade the old school way with stakes and strings just isn't precise enough (and probably a heck of a lot slower). I asked him on Twitter if he knew he'd get to play with sci-fi toys when he got into the field.

Dirt, grass, and lasers. We should all be so lucky.

Billy Bean, inclusion ambassador for MLB, joins Mets at spring training

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The Mets brought Bean in to speak to and work out with the team today.

Among those in a Mets uniform this morning at spring training was Billy Bean, former player and Major League Baseball's first ever Ambassador for Inclusion. The Mets are one of a few teams that have invited the openly gay Bean to their complex at to speak to players about acceptance in baseball. According to beat writer Mike Vorkunov of the Star-Ledger, general manager Sandy Alderson even thought about having Bean play in a spring training game as a sign of solidarity.

Bean, 51, spent six seasons at the major league level as a backup outfielder. Throughout his career, he accumulated 487 at-bats with the Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, and the San Diego Padres, with five home runs. In 1999, he became the second MLB player ever to have revealed his homosexuality, after the late Glenn Burke. Bean's book, Going the Other Way: Lessons from a Life in and out of Major League Baseball, recounted his experience as a gay professional baseball player.

As the topic of inclusion gradually becomes a prominent point of focus in major sports, it's great to see the Mets take the initiativeand set a good example for the rest of the league.

Can Michael Brantley repeat his 20-20 breakout in 2015?

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Ray profiles Indians outfielder Michael Brantley, and opines that Brantley will have difficulty repeating his 20 home run, 20 stolen base breakout in 2015.

Last season was a huge breakout season for Indians outfielder Michael Brantley. After hitting 26 home runs over his previous four seasons, Brantley hit .327-.385-.506 with 20 home runs, 94 runs scored, 97 RBI and 23 stolen bases in 676 plate appearances. In addition to the 20 home runs, he smacked 45 doubles, after hitting just 26 doubles in 2013. So the improvement in power appears to be real, but I am not sold yet. Brantley isn't the first hitter to have a power breakout, only to disappoint owners the following season.

Here is a look at his ISO and SLG over his five seasons in Cleveland:

2010: .081 ISO, .327 SLF

2011: .118 ISO, .384 SLG

2012: .114 ISO, .402 SLG

2013: .112 ISO, .396 SLG

2014: .178 IS0, .506 SLG

Brantley experienced a power breakout in his age 27 season, which wouldn't be the first time we saw this happen for a 27 year old hitter. But looking at his career power stats, we could look back at 2014 as a career year for him. Brantley doesn't hit a ton of fly balls, and his home run total benefitted from a career high 12.7 HR/FB% last season. Here is a look at his fly ball percentage and HR/FB% over the last five seasons:

2010: 31.7 FB%, 3.7 HR/FB%

2011: 31.3 FB%, 5.9 HR/FB%

2012: 28.8 FB%, 4.2 HR/FB%

2013: 29.8 FB%, 6.8 HR/FB%

2014: 28.3 FB%, 12.7 HR/FB%

Does that look like the profile of a power hitter? I think not. I see his power and runs scored dropping in 2015, along with his batting average, which benefitted from a .333 BABIP in 2014.

His power breakout looks remarkably similar to the breakout we saw from Padres outfielder Will Venable in 2014, albeit at an older age. In 2013, Venable hit .268-.312-.484 with 22 home runs, 64 runs scored, 53 RBI and 22 stolen bases in 515 plate appearances. The power breakout occurred a year after Venable hit just 9 home runs in 2012. Here is a look at his fly ball rate and HR/FB% prior to the breakout:

2009: 40.3 FB%. 14.8 HR/FB%

2010: 44.1 FB%, 11.2 HR/FB%

2011: 36.3 FB%, 9.2 HR/FB%

2012: 29.4 FB%, 9.8 HR/FB%

2013: 31.5 FB%, 19.8 HR/FB%

How did Venable perform in 2014? He hit .224-.228-.325 with 8 home runs, 47 runs scored, 33 RBI and 11 stolen bases in 448 plate appearances. His fly ball percentage rose to 33.3%, but his HR/FB% fell back to 8.2%, within the range of the previous two seasons before the 2013 breakout.

I admit there is a flaw in my comparison due to the difference in age, but, like Venable, Brantley doubled his home run output from the previous season, even though he wasn't a big fly ball hitter. Plus, coming into the 2014 season, Brantley was never considered a power hitter. Do we think he will now become a regular 20 home run, 20 stolen base hitter? I don't think so, and I think he is being drafted way too high based on his superb 2014 season.

His current ADP according to the Mock Draft Army ADP rankings over at Fantasy Alarm is 27.8 and he is the 10th outfielder off draft boards, ahead of several outfielders I would gladly have instead of Brantley: Justin Upton, Bryce Harper, George Springer, Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson and Matt Kemp.

FungoMan Is The Hero San Diego Deserves

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The most popular new face at the Padres' spring training camp this year isn't an A.J. Preller acquisition. In fact, it doesn't really have a face. It's FungoMan, a machine that looks a lot like a pitching machine, but does the exact opposite. As you might have gathered from the name, it shoots fly balls and popups to players doing fielding drills. According to Padres beat writer Corey Brock, coaches are thrilled to let the machine take over for them.

"It takes out the human error when you're doing specific outfield drills," said San Diego bench coach Dave Roberts, who works with the team's outfielders. "You can maximize the players' time. Trying to hit the ball 330 feet consistently is tough for anyone.

Dave Roberts isn't the only one in camp trying to get on the machines' good side before Skynet takes over. Outfielder Matt Kemp used it with his previous team (their name escapes me), and loved it so much he helped dig the Padres' FungoMan out of storage.

"I don't think people really understand how hard it is to hit consistent fly balls with a real fungo," Kemp said. "I have [had] some good coaches, like Davey Lopes, who were good at it. But I'm sure if Davey saw the 'FungoMan,' he would want to use it instead of hitting fungos all day, so when I found out the Padres had one, I was like, 'I want to use that thing.'"

You heard it here first, folks: The Padres love robots. Not that we can judge, though.

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