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MLB Draft 2014: Padres' farm/minor league depth

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Analyzing the strengths and weaknesses within the organizations minor league prospects.

With all of the various position groups now graded we need to take all that information figure out where the strengths and weaknesses are. Let's start by ordering each of the grades from highest to lowest (tie breaker goes to minor league level). I will leave out the major leagues and the "others". If you don't know what I'm talking about then I suggest clicking on the links in the side bar to find out.

AAA PitchingA-
AA CatchingA-
HA PitchingB+
AA OutfieldB+
A Corner InfB+
AAA Middle InfB
HA OutfieldB
AAA Corner InfC+
A OutfieldC+
AA Middle InfC+
AA PitchingC+
HA Corner InfC+
A Middle InfC
A PitchingC
A CatchingC-
AAA OutfieldD+
HA CatchingD
AA Corner InfF
HA Middle InfF
AAA CatchersF

Looking at this list you can see that the areas the org is strong with fortifications soon on the way are with pitching (buyer beware: injuries), catching, outfield and middle infield. That just leaves the corner infield as a trouble spot. Which is really a shame since Chase Headley will be a free agent and Yonder Alonso is on shaky ground right now. The system also has some pitching waiting in the wings as a next wave that is currently in High A ball and some corner infielder help even further off.

The areas where the organization is weakest actually are not as bad as they look. Since the major league team is carrying 3 catchers and AA has Austin Hedges the AAA catching is not a worry. That trickles down to the High A and A ball catching since if even one of those other catchers pan out the team is not going to need any more top prospects at the position (although, it's a nice to have for future trades). The AAA OF is a little concerning but AA is so strong that you can imagine a couple of guys filling in the gap there by the end of the year.

The real concerns are with the High A and low A middle infield and the low A pitching, especially since these are areas that gaps that can be filled in by the draft. Middle infielders tend to redistribute themselves throughout the diamond, so you really do not want the org to get too thin. With pitching you can never have enough. Injuries and stalls in development happen so frequently that you need wave after wave coming to the rescue. It would be wise for the team to address these two positional groups in the draft.

Another noticeable issue with the system is the lack of corner infielders. The team has a nice prospect in A ball named Dustin Peterson, but lacks 1B or any depth at 3B other than him. If you are reading between the lines, the organization lacks power. Hunter Renfroe and Rymer Liriano provide some. Well Renfroe provides a lot, but he is just one guy. The franchise's focus on speed and defense is a solid philosophy, but offenses function better when they have a couple of big boppers. The Padres shouldn't reach for a power 1B, but having some future for the organization at that position would be beneficial.


Carlos Quentin injury: Padres slugger set for Tuesday return

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The San Diego Padres suffered through a rash of early and preseason injuries, but they're finally beginning to get healthy.

That the 2014 San Diego Padres sit just 3 games under the .500 mark is somewhat of a minor miracle.

A second Tommy John surgery knocked Cory Luebke from their projected rotation before the season even began, and the same fate ultimately forced Josh Johnson out of the 2014 picture before he ever through a big league pitch for the club.   Two projected starting outfielders hit the DL before the squad could wrap up Spring Training, and star 3B Chase Headley, who the club opted not to trade as he entered his final season of team control, hit the DL on April 25th with a strained right calf.

That rendered the three highest paid players from their club-record $90 million payroll on the DL before the month of April could finish.

As if the injuries hadn't been enough, the production they've seen from their offensive regulars has been atrocious.  Among the four players who have had the most PA on the team, only one has managed an OPS above .527 (SS Everth Cabrera, at .615), and the team's overall OPS of .623 ranks them 30th out of the 30 MLB teams.  Yonder Alonso and his .200/.241/.272 line has contributed heavily to the Padres having the worst OPS in the majors from the 1B spot, and the recently extended Jedd Gyorko has stumbled out of the gate with an even worse .505 OPS at 2B.

Had a stellar bullpen and the solid starting pitching led by Ian Kennedy, Andrew Cashner, and Tyson Ross not allowed a team ERA of just 3.08, the bats may have very well hit the team completely out of the playoff picture before Memorial Day.  As it stands, however, the Padres sit a still manageable 2.5 games out in a crowded NL Wild Card race, and fortunately for Padres fans, their missing pieces are on the mend.

Cameron Maybin rejoined the Padres on April 27th, and he's shown few side effects from the torn biceps suffered in Spring Training while producing an .850 OPS through his first 12 games.  Headley returned to the lineup prior to Saturday's game against the Florida Marlins and has homered and scored three runs in his two games back.  And finally, it appears that Carlos Quentin may be rejoining the team for their series against the Cincinnati Reds following today's off-day, as Aaron Gleeman of NBC Sports notes.

Usp-mlb_-colorado-rockies-at-san-diego-padres-4_3

Photo Credit:  Jake Roth, USA Today Sports

Quentin, who's making $9.5 million in the second year of the 3 year, $27 million contract extension signed midway through the first season after his trade from the Chicago White Sox, should help provide the kind of right handed power needed in a lineup full of players typically more potent from the left side.  He's managed an OPS of .866 during his time in San Diego, but injuries have limited him to 86 and 82 games, respectively, in those two seasons.

Given the struggles of the lineup around him, the Padres will be hoping he can stay healthy for the duration of the 2014 season.  Since veteran outfielders Seth Smith and Chris Denorfia have hit well in his stead, however, that should allow the Padres to ease Quentin back into the lineup.  Considering Quentin hit just .167 in his 7 rehab games at El Paso and Lake Elsinore, that might be the prudent decision, anyway.

Miami Marlins' starter Jose Fernandez expected to go on disabled list

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According to multiple reports, Miami Marlins starter Jose Fernandez is expected to go on the disabled list with an unknown injury. Fernandez reportedly had an MRI on Monday in Los Angeles.

According to several reports, Miami Marlins starter Jose Fernandez is expected to go on the disabled list with an undisclosed injury. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports was among the first to report the news.

Fernandez last pitched on Friday night in San Diego, and struggled. It was later determined that he was experiencing stomach pain and possibly had a bad meal before the start.

The "nature" of the injury is unknown, and Fernandez reportedly is undergoing an MRI in Los Angeles.

While he gave up six runs to a Padres lineup that has consistently struggled to score runs, Fernandez didn't speak of any pain aside from the stomach issues after the start. Fernandez has led a young Marlins pitching staff that has the team two games over five hundred just over a month into the season.

Marlins Manager Mike Redmond is expected to address the media at 6:30 EST in Los Angeles. Stay tuned to FishStripes for the latest.

2014 Red Panama Grass (Padres Anagrams)

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It's been a few years since we've done a Padres anagram post, so I thought this off day would be a good time to do one. This time around I used this website because the old one we used to use isn't running anymore. Rather than just give you one anagram, this new site lists all possible anagrams, so I tried to pick the best one(s) for each player. I also did the coaching staff and some of the front office.

There are a lot of really good ones, but my favorites are Bobby LaFramboise, Keyvius Sampson, and Huston Street. I also like the San Diego Padres anagram, "Garden is soaped." Someone better tell Luke Yoder. I bet the Giants were behind it. 

Padres 2014 Anagrams
NameAnagram
Joaquin BenoitEquation In Job
Andrew Cashner

Wanna Rec Herds

Ache Warns Nerd

Scanned Her Raw

Robbie ErlinBroil In Beer
Jesse HahnHe's She Jan
Casey KellyYes Clay Elk
Ian KennedyNine Yanked
Bobby LaFramboise

Bombers Of Baby Oil

Boobies of Brambly

Robs Baby of Mobile

Cory Luebke

Lure By Coke

OK Bye Ulcer

Juan Pablo Oramas

No Labour Pajamas

Panama US Oral Job

Kevin QuackenbushBuck Knavish Queen
Donn Roach

No Corn Had

Hard-On Con

Tyson Ross

Snorts Soy

Keyvius SampsonMove Ass Up In Sky
Burch SmithMr. Bush Itch
Tim Stauffer

True Mastiff

Mature Stiff

I'm True Staff

Muff Artiste

Huston Street

Enters To Shut

Those Entrust

Store The Nuts

Utter Hotness

Eric Stults

Sister Cult

Lest I Crust

Dale Thayer

Death Layer

Hate Dearly

Lady Heater

Eat Her Lady

Thy Dear Ale

Alex Torres

Extras Role

Rear Lot Sex

Joe Wieland

We Join Dale

One We'd Jail

Yasmani Grandal

Angry Salami DNA

Grand Salami, Nay

Sangria Man Lady

Nick HundleyKidney Lunch
Rene RiveraEver In Rear
Yonder Alonso

Soon Read-Only

Sly Rodeo Anon

Everth Cabrera

Braver Cheater

The Bear Carver

Cart Her Beaver

Jedd GyorkoDog Dry Joke
Chase Headley

Ached Eyelash

Hey Dale Aches

Aye He Clashed

Ryan JacksonCanon Sky Jar
Tommy Medica

Mid-May Comet

Jace PetersonJeep Ancestor
Alexi Amarista

A Material Axis

Alas I'm Irate Ax

Yeison AsencioEasy Coin Noise
Kyle BlanksSly Elk Bank
Chris Denorfia

Horrified Scan

Riders Of China

Coriander Fish

Drain His Force

Reymond Fuentes

Tree Money Funds

Enemy Unfrosted

Rymer LirianoI'm Rarely Iron
Cameron Maybin

Cambrian Money

Can Maybe Minor

Be My Main Acorn

Carlos Quentin

Clinton Square

Conquer Stalin

Conquer Latins

Seth SmithThe Smiths
Will Venable

New Evil Ball

We'll Nab Evil

Buddy BlackBald By Duck
Phil PlantierNip Lip Lather
Alonzo PowellAll Plow Ozone
Darren BalsleyRelabels Randy
Jose ValentinViolent Jeans
Dave RobertsObserved Art
Willie BlairI'll Wire Bail
Justin HatcherInjures Thatch
Griffin BenedictErect Fib Finding
Ron FowlerWe Forlorn
Mike DeeDie Meek
Wayne Partello

Two-Lane Player

Mike DeeDie Meek
Josh SteinOh In Jests
Omar MinayaI'm Any Aroma
Luke YoderLouder Key
Randy SmithTrashy Mind
San Diego Padres

Egos And Despair

Garden Is Soaped

A One-Sided Grasp

No Anagrams Found:

Anagrams from previous years: 200920102011

Padres could move Kyle Blanks soon, Athletics a possible destination

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The sides could be working on a deal that would send Blanks to Oakland.

The San Diego Padres appear to be moving closer to making a move involving first baseman/outfielder Kyle Blanks, according to major league sources with knowledge of the situation. While a demotion to Triple-A El Paso is possible, industry speculation on Monday afternoon was that Blanks could be on the verge of being traded--with the Oakland Athletics as a potential landing spot.

It is currently unclear how close the teams are to making a deal for Blanks, who has hit .200 in five major league games with the Padres this season. The Padres are expecting Carlos Quentin to return from the disabled list on Tuesday, meaning that they will have to clear roster space for him, so a move involving Blanks would make sense.

One player that could be involved in talks is Athletics' outfielder Jake Goebbert, according to a baseball source. Goebbert, who is currently at Triple-A Sacramento, has appeared in 31 of the team's 37 games so far this season, but was curiously kept out of the lineup on Monday night.

Blanks, a .228 hitter with 28 HR and 98 RBI in parts of six seasons with the Padres, would provide the Athletics with an interesting bench or minor league depth option if they were to acquire him in the near future. The 27-year old has shown flashes of talent throughout his career, and may benefit from a change of scenery.

Padres draft 2010 review: Hoyer's Biggest Whiff

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The 2010 draft will be remembered for having a big miss as well as a big hit. And not much else.

The 2010 draft was Jed Hoyer's first as the general manager of the San Diego Padres. He had put together a crackerjack scouting staff that included Assistant GM Jason McLeod, the former Red Sox scouting director, who followed Hoyer from Boston to San Diego. The young GM would oversee two of the club's drafts and this one was easily his worst. The franchise was coming off a year, 2009, where it bucked a trend of signing cheaper, safer college players and finally took some high school players and other high upside players that required some higher signing bonuses in a good mix with college players. So things were looking up and expectations were a bit higher about what the Padres could do in 2010. On top of that, the team was picking in the top 10 due to a poor record in 2009 and there was a chance to get an impact talent with that high pick (plus high picks in the subsequent rounds).

That optimism was not dashed on draft day. The Padres used the 9th overall selection to take a Florida HS RHP named Karsten Whitson. He was a young prospect with a projectable arm. Experts called it a nice selection. The player was chosen around the exact point in the draft that he was expected to go. Kudos all around. The team followed that pick up with another nice selection: West Virginia University INF Jedd Gyorko. The reports said Gyorko could hit and would be an above average MLB bat, but went in the second round because he needed a position. The Padres were confident they would find him one. More kudos were had.

The rest of the draft seemed to go well, but those two picks were definitely the highlights at the time. One would work out really poorly, the other really well. It was not long after the draft when reports emerged that the Padres already had a deal in place for Whitson's signing bonus. Allegedly, some predraft arrangement was agreed to that would allow the Padres to sign the young hurler for a very reasonable amount for a pick of his status of about $2.1 million. This would represent a pretty high bonus given the Padres' history, but a little on the low end for a prospect drafted where Whitson was with his kind of upside. Despite the rumors of a deal in place, the discussions between the prospect and the team dragged out until the signing deadline. The deadline came and went with no deal in place. The Padres had lost their prized selection. Both sides blamed the other and both in their own way failed. The Padres were only protected in that they got a compensation 1st round pick in the 2011 draft. Dreams of a future ace were dashed as Karsten Whitson forwent the major leagues for a college baseball career at the University of Florida.

No such drama surrounded Jedd Gyorko. He stands to this day as the shining star of the Padres' 2010 draft. After spending a lot of time at 3B in the minor leagues, Gyorko was moved to 2B and made his major league debut on Opening Day 2013. He has become a fixture in the lineup ever since and received a contract extension that will keep him with the team through 2019 (with an option for 2020). His accomplishments may never overshadow the blunder of the Friars' 1st round pick, but it is a nice consolation.

The other downside to this draft comes from the rounds that followed. There are still some of the younger prospects that are making pushes towards establishing themselves as major leaguers some day, but for the most part the remaining rounds are a disappointment. There are two players besides Gyorko that have made it to the majors. The first was LHP Josh Spence, who quickly made his MLB debut in 2011 as a situational reliever. He had some early success, but a battle with control forced the team to be in a different direction and he is no longer with the organization. The other is 1B/OF Tommy Medica. Similarly, Medica got to the majors and had success (although a couple years later in 2013), but didn't reprise it the following. Unlike Spence the organization still has hope for him and he is working on fine-tuning his skills in AAA (which he initially skipped on the way to the bigs).

For those not familiar with the draft, that is not a lot of production from a single year's draft. By comparison, the 2008 draft was a very flawed draft as well (busted 1st round pick, didn't sign their 4th round pick who is now an above average major league regular for the Indians, no players that signed turned out to be anything more than role players), but at this point had 6 players already making debuts with the Padres. One can say it is still early, but the 2010 draft never has had a group of players that prospect lists have heralded. It was obvious from as early as 2011 that the 2010 draft would be Gyorko or bust.

Still, there are some prospects that you cannot count out yet. 5th round pick Rico Noel started the season in AAA and is a base stealer extraordinaire. 6th round pick Johnny Barbato, after struggling in 2013, is closing games in AAA and looking good doing it. And... actually that is it. The only other thing noteworthy about this draft class is that 3rd round Zach Cates was included in the Andrew Cashner-Anthony Rizzo trade in 2012. It was a strange inclusion from the beginning, but has not turned out to haunt the Padres as Cates is stuck in High A ball at 24 years old. However,  even though the Padres do not regret losing him, he still counts as another bust (so far) in this year's class of prospects.

Here is the entire list of drafted players for your own perusal:

Miami Marlins looking to define bullpen roles

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Over a month into the season, Manager Mike Redmond and the Miami Marlins are looking to create defined roles for each relief pitcher. The eighth inning has given the Marlins trouble, and closing the gap to closer Steve Cishek has been a challenge.

The bullpen wasn't supposed to be a weakness of the Miami Marlins in 2014, but over a month into the season, Manager Mike Redmond is still looking to define roles for each of his relief pitchers. Closer Steve Cishek has been consistent when called upon, but getting the ball to him with a late lead has been a struggle.

Jacob Turner's return to the starting rotation has helped the Marlins' bullpen in that it allowed Brad Hand and Kevin Slowey to both slide back into a long relief role. Both Hand and Slowey saw time in the Marlins' starting rotation while Turner was on the disabled list with an injured right shoulder.

After designating Carlos Marmol for assignment on Sunday, Miami is hoping for late inning consistency from its core of relievers.

"I think it's just continually pounding the strike zone and executing the pitch," Mike Dunn said. "I look back at that homestand, there weren't a lot of walks. We weren't shying away from anybody. We were going right at everybody and attacking them. We've got to keep doing that."

Both on the road and at home, Miami's seventh and eighth inning choices haven't proven that they can be consistent.

A.J. Ramos

After a solid year in the Marlins' bullpen in 2012, Ramos was thought to be a favorite to pitch late in ballgames. He is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 2.65 FIP in 16 innings, and could see more time later in games as the season progresses.

Ramos can get a bit wild at times, losing control of a quality fastball and a solid slider. At the moment, he may be Miami's best seventh or eighth inning option.

Carter Capps

Capps was acquired in the Logan Morrison trade with Seattle, primarily to give the Marlins evidently necessary bullpen depth. He has posted a 1.50 ERA in six innings at the major league level this year, and has experience pitching late in games.

While Capps posted an ERA over five with the Mariners last year, when he keeps his fastball down in the strikezone, he has the ability to thrive.

Although he hasn't seen a lot of big league action this year, a few scoreless outings and Capps could slide into the eighth inning role immediately.

Mike Dunn

With Dan Jennings recently demoted, Dunn remains the only "situational" type left-hander in the Marlins' bullpen. In 14 and a third innings, he has posted a 5.02 ERA  but has had difficulty getting left-handed hitters out.

Dunn has also been plagued by the long ball in his career, but he too can emerge as a candidate if he can turn things around quickly.

Henry Rodriguez

Rodriguez made his Marlins debut on Sunday afternoon and pitched a scoreless inning in relief against the Padres. He has experience as a closer and may be the eighth inning man the Marlins thought Carlos Marmol was going to be.

Poll
Who would you like to see pitching late in games for the Marlins?

  0 votes |Results

Series Preview: Padres at Reds

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The Reds square off with a Padres ballclub that has struggled to score runs. And their issue is not just their park.

Note: I made a change to my spreadsheets to change the color-coding scheme from red-->yellow-->green to blue-->white-->red.  This makes the color-coding more approachable for the many individuals who are unable to distinguish reds from greens, and (hopefully) makes the charts a bit less offensive to eyes of all kinds.  It does take some time to get used to the new scheme, because red is now "good" instead of "bad."  Think red=hot, blue=cold.  Let me know what you think!

051214-padresteamcomp_mediumFollowing an resilient winning series against the Rockies, the Reds welcome to San Diego Padres to town.  The Padres are a team that, entering the season, ranked as a fairly middling club: some good pieces, but also without a lot of depth, and so a club that one could see as a surprise contender or a basement dweller.  Things haven't gone their way thus far.  While they have managed a similar record to the Reds, their overall numbers suggest a much weaker team (both in terms of run differential and WAR).  The top of their rotation has been quite good, and their bullpen has been amazing.  But their offense has been awful.  While the park does play into those numbers a bit, their park-adjusted wRC+ is tied with the Cubs for the worst in baseball.

For what it's worth, FanGraphs projections see them as a pretty comparable team to the Reds over the rest of the season.  They have a number of quality hitters who have hit massively below their career marks thus far, and the projections predict their offense to recover, even if their pitching slips a bit.  Their record to date is similar to that of the Reds, and the project for a similar record the rest of the way.  Therefore, they have about the same shot at a wild card berth as the Reds (~7%).  The reason the Reds have a (slightly?) better shot at the playoffs is that the Reds only have two teams in front of them, whereas the Padres have three.

Position Players

051214-redshitting_medium

Billy Hamilton returned to the starting lineup Sunday after a long time off, and immediately had an impact.  He got on base three times, and scored the first run of the game thanks to an errant (and arguably rushed) throw by Justin Morneau on a bunt single, followed by a Skip Schumaker groundout.  This is the first series preview that I've done this year in which his actual wOBA meets or exceeds his projection.  There's no question that he's been better since his awful first two weeks.  And, according to the measures at FanGraphs, he is already about a third of the way to his projected season WAR.  Therefore, the projections, at least, think that what we've seen of Hamilton, in sum, is a good indication of what we'll see from him moving forward.

There was a short but interesting discussion on a recent FanGraphs audio about the Minnesota Twins' apparent new hitting strategy, which basically involves taking a lot of pitches (they rank last in baseball in Swing %).  One of the arguments that Dave Cameron made is that the players who stand to benefit most from a more selective approach are hitters like Hamilton.  Hamilton is not a guy who gains a lot when he swings the bat, compared to a guy who has a lot of power and can add real value when he places the bat on the ball.  Hamilton's offensive value is entirely wrapped up in his ability to get to first base, and little else.

Hamilton's swing rate is actually right about average (45% career vs. 45% MLB average), but that hasn't translated into a lot of extra walks (only 5% walk rate).  I think he can be effective when he hits the ball on the ground, but he is not really a ground ball hitter (46% career ground ball rate is about average).  Given that he makes good contact (86% career vs. 79% MLB average), however, I'd love to see a Hamilton that adopts a Marco Scutaro-type hitting approach: be patient, take pitches, and only swing when you get your perfect pitch...or when you have to with two strikes.  His contact rate should make him an effective two-strike hitter.

Of course, that's easier said than done.  Hitters can't just change their approach at the drop of a hat.  They are reaction machines that have trained themselves to make split-second decisions in a time frame that doesn't allow a thoughtful, considered approach.  One can't discount the argument that a hitter's aggressiveness (or patience) is part of what has made him successful to this point in his career, and trying to become more patient (or more aggressive) could have unintended, negative consequences on other aspects of how a player hits.  But that doesn't stop me from dreaming about it!

051214-padreshitting

You know that really slow start to the season that Zack Cozart is having?  Well, the Padres have that with three of their starters.  All of Yonder Alonso, Jedd Gyorko, and Will Venable have been just as bad as Zack Cozart this season at the plate.  And unfortunately for the Padres, none of them are sure-handed, rangy shortstops like Cozart is.  In fact, one of them, former Red Yonder Alonso, is a first baseman!  Former prospect Kyle Blanks was recently promoted and is in a platoon now with Yonder at first base, at least until one of them starts to break out.  Gyorko is a favorite of mine: an offense-oriented second baseman with nice pop, he's been terrible so far, as has Venable. Not far behind that crew is Chase Headley, who was counted on to be the Padres' top hitter.  He's missed some time, but he hasn't been his normal, productive self either.

I'm openly rooting for Chris Denorfia to win the job over his platoon partner, Venable.  But I've always been a Denorfia guy.  In fact, I think my first fanpost here at red reporter was a first-hand account of seeing him play in the Arizona Fall League (Joey Votto was also on that team, unless my memory is failing me).

On the plus side of the coin, the other major piece of the Mat Latos deal to for the Padres, Yasmani Grandal, has been excellent once again, even (presumably) without the PED's!  He's a patient switch-hitter who gets on base, and I think still may have some power that hasn't shown up yet.  On top of that, based on work by Harry Pavlidis, he also might be the best pitch framer in major league baseball.  I'm going to be watching to see if I can notice something about what he does: glove movements, head movements, etc.

Their best hitter, at least against right-handers, has been former Colorado Rockies outfielder Seth Smith.  Smith has always been a guy who can hit, and it seems like he's finally secured a full-time starting job after two fairly disappointing seasons with Oakland.

Probable Starters

051214-probables_medium

I paid a lot of attention to Cashner when he debuted for the Padres in 2012, but not last year.  Therefore, it was quite a surprise when I saw what he has become.  I remember a guy who was throwing 97 mph, striking out 10+ per 9 innings, and getting obscene ground ball rates for a strikeout pitcher.  His groundball tendencies have persisted, but Cashner now "only" throws about 94 mph, and his strikeouts were way down last year...but so were his walks.  The result has been a really good pitcher who is now considered the ace of this Padres staff.  Mike Leake will have his work cut out for him.

It doesn't get much easier after that, because the Reds then are dealt the Padres' #2 and #3 starters in Ian Kennedy and Tyson Ross.  I don't put any stock in "vs. team" splits, but I do think it's interesting (in a historical sense, not a predictive sense) that Kennedy has been so dominant against the Reds (career 1.53 ERA in four starts, 22/5 k/bb ratio).  And this year, he seems to have rediscovered himself.  He's historically been a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher (career average 38%), but somehow this year, with the Padres, he's getting 47% ground ball rates.  And so far, anyway, he's posted ridiculous strikeout and walk rates (10+ k/9, ~2 bb/9).  He's been a beast.

But so has Johnny Cueto.

Bullpens

051214-redspen_medium

It feels sooo nice to have Aroldis Chapman back.  Closers have limited abilities to impact seasons, but having Chapman back is bound to impact some games.  The Reds finally have their bullpen set up as they'd planned in spring training.  And given how severe some of the injuries have been--Chapman's injury of course, and Marshall's lingering shoulder issues from last season--that's pretty exciting.  Let's hope that those with bad peripherals but good results can keep getting outs, and those with good peripherals but bad results can start to see the fruits of their labors.

On that note, I continue to be fascinated by Logan Ondrusek.  For his first three seasons, Ondrusek was a guy who always had an ERA that was far better than his strikeout, walk, home run, and ground ball rates would indicate that it "should" be.  This was epitomized in 2012: a 3.46 ERA, but also a 5+ walks per nine innings, and only slightly higher strikeout rates!  Then, last year, something happened.  His strikeout rate soared to 8.7 k/9, his walk rate dropped to 2.6 bb/9...and his ERA shot up over four for the first time in his career.  This year, his peripherals are the same as, if not better than,last year's...and his results have been even worse.

From everything we know about pitching, Ondrusek should be on the right track with whatever changes he's made in his approach.  I'm going to be very interested to see where he is at the end of the season.

051214-padrespen_medium

By ERA, the Padres have the second-best bullpen in the major leagues.  That's probably overrating them by a bit, but this is unquestionably a very solid group of arms.  Huston Street and Joaquin Benoit are big names, but the others are much less well-known (to me, anyway).  I was surprised to see Tim Stauffer in this pen, because the last I'd noticed him he had a nice (but maybe injury-shortened?) year in the Padres' rotation in 2011.  Last year, however, he converted to the bullpen, and was very good for them.  He seems to be used primarily as a long man (69 innings in 43 appearances last season).

Final Thoughts

The good news is that despite the fact that the Reds are drawing the best part of the Padres rotation, they still get to pitch to the Padres offense.  Hopefully that offense will continue to struggle, which could lead to some low-scoring games.  This and the next series are pretty important to the Reds, because next week they begin a brutal 9-game stretch against the Nationals, Cardinals, and Dodgers.  If they're going to make up some ground on their record, now would be the time to do it.

JinAZ is still named Justin but no longer lives in AZ.  He's back to blogging about Baseball and the Reds, both here and at his own blog.


If not Kyle Blanks, then who's on first base?

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Replacing Daric Barton with anyone has roster implications beyond 2014. Is a trade for Kyle Blanks a good move? Should Nate Freiman get his sophomore season underway? Why not Stephen Vogt?

Let's assume, for the moment, Daric Barton is a player you would like to designate for assignment. Based on current trade rumors, you have three choices for his replacement on the active roster:

  1. Recall Nate Freiman to play the right-handed bat portion of the first base platoon, like in 2013.
  2. Recall Stephen Vogt to play third catcher, so that Derek Norris and John Jaso can be in the same lineup more frequently, allowing Callaspo to play first base against left-handed pitching.
  3. Trade for Kyle Blanks and hope he becomes the mirror version of Brandon Moss, or at the least hits left-handed pitching better than Daric Barton and fields first base better than Alberto Callaspo.

Alex Hall has made his argument about the near-term merits of such a move, but how would a move this year require the A's to make potentially more expensive moves in future years?

Alberto Callaspo is a free agent after this season, and the only player on the active roster currently capable of playing first base while batting right-handed. The A's have team control over Brandon Moss through 2016, his age-32 season.

Nate Freiman

Nate Freiman is with the Sacramento River Cats on optional assignment after spending the 2013 season on the active roster as a Rule 5 draftee. The Houston Astros had selected him in the Rule 5 draft from the San Diego Padres, and the Athletics claimed Freiman off waivers from Houston. As a result, he has exactly one season of MLB service time, and 2014 is his first option year.

Freiman is currently 27 years old. Freiman has options through 2016, his age-29 season, and the maximum period of team control assuming only September call-ups is through his 2021 season, at age-34.

Super Two arbitration

Do you want to call up Nate Freiman this year? See what happens if you do:

  • Friday, May 16: Freiman would attain 136 days of service time. If kept on the roster for all of 2015, he would reach 2.136 years of service time, and likely become eligible for Super Two arbitration. If kept on the roster until he reaches free agency, his last year of team control would be 2018, his age-31 season.
  • July 1: Freiman would attain 100 days of service time. If kept on the roster for all of 2015, he would reach 2.100 years of service time, and would likely not be eligible for Super Two arbitration. If kept on the roster until he reaches free agency, his last year of team control would be 2018, his age-31 season.

Why is Super Two arbitration so important? Look at the guaranteed terms of Sean Doolittle's contract extension.

  • If he is not Super Two arbitration eligible, he will earn $10.5 million guaranteed.
  • If he is Super Two arbitration eligible, he will earn $13.75 million guaranteed.

What a difference an extra week or two in MLB makes! $3.25 million dollars is not chump change. Which would you rather have, an extra month of Sean Doolittle or $3.25 million to spend on other players?

Granted, Nate Freiman is not Sean Doollittle, so it is hard to predict what he would earn in arbitration because we don't know what sort of player he will become. Every dollar counts in the A's payroll, however.

Future years if Freiman is recalled for good this year

In 2015 and 2016, Callaspo is gone but Moss is still here. Freiman and Moss are your first basemen.

2017-18, Freiman is your last first baseman on the current 40-man roster. The A's will need a first baseman that can hit right-handed pitching by 2017 regardless of what happens with Nate Freiman, but they will need someone that can hit left-handed pitching by 2019 under this scenario.

Bottom Line

Absent further roster moves, it appears the Athletics would like Nate Freiman to take over his half of the platoon if Alberto Callaspo departs after this season. If he is ready baseball-wise by July, there is nothing transaction-wise holding him back from the active roster this season. An earlier call-up, however, risks adding some payroll costs due to Super Two arbitration that can be avoided by using Alberto Callaspo or another first baseman against left-handed pitching for now. If the Athletics wanted to hold Freiman back further, they would need someone else to hit left-handed pitching in 2015.

Stephen Vogt

Stephen Vogt is with the Sacramento River Cats on optional assignment after the Athletics acquired him in trade from the Tampa Bay Rays at the start of 2013 after the Rays designed Vogt for assignment. Vogt appeared on the Athletics' active roster in June and then from July on after John Jaso and then Derek Norris suffered injuries. Vogt has 136 days of service time, 36 days short of a full season.

2014 is Vogt's age-29 season. This is his final option year, and if held back from the roster until September, the A's can retain team control through 2020, his age-35 season. An early call-up eliminates a season of team control.

In most discussions of Vogt, his primary role appears to be one that allows Bob Melvin to play both John Jaso and Derek Norris in games without worrying about losing the designated hitter or using an emergency catcher in case of an in-game injury. In future years, what will his role be?

Service time considerations

Do you want to call up Stephen Vogt this year? See what happens if you do:

  • Friday, May 16: Vogt attains 136 days of service time, and reaches 1.100 service time years this year. He is unlikely to be Super Two eligible after 2015, and the A's retain team control through 2019.
  • August 31: Vogt attains 29 days of service time and reaches 165 service time days. He is playoff roster eligible without having to perform any disabled list machinations, though Barton would have to be waived. The A's retain team control through 2020.
  • September 1: Vogt attains 28 days of service time and reaches 164 service time days. He is not playoff roster eligible absent machinations with the disabled list, and there is no need to waive Barton.

In the late-August/early-September scenarios, Vogt would be Super Two eligible, but his limited playing time will probably limit his salary in arbitration.

Future years if Vogt is recalled for good this year

Derek Norris is under team control through 2018. John Jaso is under team control through next season, 2015.

For 2014-15, Vogt's role is to allow the team to comfortably use Norris and Jaso in the same lineup.

After 2015, if the #freedereknorris camp continues to have its way, Vogt's likely role is purely as backup catcher in an Adam Melhuse or Landon Powell role. To demote Vogt would require waiving him, and who else could cheaply play the backup catcher role here?

Bottom Line

Stephen Vogt needs to be the third catcher anyway in 2015 given his lack of options. The only transaction issue holding him back is his team control. Vogt has a decent chance at becoming the new Adam Melhuse or Landon Powell. Melhuse stuck around for five seasons behind Ramon Hernandez, Damian Miller, and Jason Kendall. Landon Powell managed three seasons as backup to Kurt Suzuki.

For this year, Bob Melvin has begun to show greater willingness to use both Norris and Jaso in the same lineup, knowing that Stephen Vogt is a short drive or flight away. Vogt is so close to getting to a year of service time anyway, and it would just take a single catching injury to make the A's lose that chance at Vogt's 2020 season, when he'll be 35 years old.  It would be a great year if the A's get through 2014 without a catching injury that requires Vogt's presence on the active roster.

Kyle Blanks

In the worst case, the groundhog sees its shadow (Blanks bats at Daric Barton's level for six weeks) and then summer arrives in July and Nate Freiman saves the day.

The San Diego Padres optioned Kyle Blanks to the El Paso Chihuahuas in order to reinstate Carlos Quentin from the disabled list. Blanks has bounced up-and-down between San Diego and their AAA team over six seasons. Blanks started 2014 with 4.032 years of service time.

2014 is Blanks' age-27 season. This is his final option year, but he will remain under team control through 2015. Serendipitously, Nate Freiman's last option year is 2015.

Kyle Blanks potentially allows the A's to keep Nate Freiman in Sacramento to get better against both sides of the plate through 2015 if they want. Or if Blanks falters, Freiman finds himself in Oakland sooner. In the worst case, the groundhog sees its shadow (Blanks bats at Daric Barton's level for six weeks) and then summer arrives in July and Nate Freiman saves the day. In the best case, the groundhog turns into mirror-Moss (destroys left-handed pitching), and Nate Freiman can be the everyday first baseman in 2016 (with Moss in the outfield against right-handed pitching).

Putting it all together

Blanks allows Alberto Callaspo to become an attractive rental piece for the Athletics to trade by the deadline for its stretch run for the 2014 World Championship.

Nate Freiman's potential for Super Two arbitration eligibility looms huge. I don't see the need to incur the additional potential expense of an extra arbitration year when alternatives exist to let Freiman continue to develop in Sacramento. I think the club wants to give Freiman every opportunity to develop his swing against right-handed pitching in hopes of replacing Brandon Moss at first base in 2016 or 2017. Limiting Freiman to the platoon against lefties in MLB abandons any chance of his development against righties without affecting the MLB club, and means the A's will need to find an external and probably more expensive replacement for Moss in 2017.

Stephen Vogt's team control is a minor issue if he is only going to be a backup for the next six or seven years. Backup catchers have historically had a way of sticking around under Billy Beane's management.

If you want to avoid seeing Nate Freiman until July but you still want to improve the first base platoon, Kyle Blanks seems a low-risk low-cost shot to at least try him for six weeks against left-handed pitching. His hitting can't be worse than Barton, and his defense can't be worse than Callaspo's. If the choice is Freiman now or Blanks now, spending high six-figures on Blanks now saves the extra money Freiman would get with an extra arbitration year.

Blanks works out as a neat solution to at worst bridge a six-week gap to get Freiman past his Super Two arbitration eligibility and at best turn into a right-handed hitting Brandon Moss. Either way, Blanks allows Alberto Callaspo to become an attractive rental piece for the Athletics to trade by the deadline for its stretch run for the 2014 World Championship. But who would back up third base, you ask? Jake Elmore's last rehab start on April 26 in Sacramento was at third base.

I say go for it.

Information on service time and contract status courtesy of Cot's Baseball ContractsBaseball Reference, and TSN Canada's player pages.

Leake's gem doomed by late dinger. SDP 2, CIN 1.

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One of the better starts of Mike Leake's career falls victim to an effective Andrew Cashner and a late Chase Headley HR.

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Mike Leake pitched tremendously this evening, and despite the fact he was facing the worst offense in baseball, he made no bones about slicing up the San Diego Padres' offense.  Leake threw 8 innings of 1 run, 2 hit baseball, striking out 5 and walking just 1, and it's a crying shame that the Reds couldn't manage to put another run or two on the board for him.  Leake lowered his season ERA to a minuscule 3.09, and he has continued to flash the kind of stuff that make him a starter any franchise would envy.  That's JNMHSotG worthy, Michael.

Honorable Mentions are due to:  Brandon Phillips, who went 3 for 4 with a double and an RBI; Joey Votto, who went 1 for 2 with a pair of walks; and Billy Hamilton, who tripled and scored.

Key Plays

  • I'm not sure there's a finite definition of frustrating, but the next sentence may well take that honor.  The Reds had as many hits in the Bottom of the 1st than the San Diego Padres had in the entire game, yet the Reds lost.  Hamilton led things off with a triple, he scored two batters later on a Phillips single, and after Votto smashed one off the RF wall that moved Phillips to 3B (and saw Votto thrown out at 2B), a Frazier ground-out ended the rally.  Reds led, 1-0.
  • Seth Smith led off with a double to begin the Top of the 4th, and he moved to 3B on a ground-out from Carlos Quentin a batter later.  After Chase Headley was hit by a pitch, Jedd Gyorko lofted a fly ball deep enough to be a sac fly that scored Smith.  Game tied, 1-1.
  • The game remained the same until the Top of the 9th, when Aroldis Chapman was brought on to face the heart of the order.  After Chapman struck out both Smith and Quentin, Headley homered to LF on a super-pop-up.  The funny thing is, when Todd Frazier hit a fly-out to the wall in RF with 2-on in the Bottom of the 6th, 'tHom waxed poetic on how that ball wouldn't have been within "20 yards" of the wall at the Padres home ball park, but when Headley's pop-up HR cleared the wall, there was no sarcasm.  It's to the point where you have to stand on a bed of nails to kiss the girl you love each time the game is televised on FS-Ohio, and that's a damn hard pill to swallow.  Ugh.  Now 'tHom is making me sound as bitter and frustrated as 'tHom himself sounds.  Reds lose, 2-1.
FanGraph that Shows a Dang and a Bummer Slap-Fighting


Source: FanGraphs

Other Notes
  • The Reds are now 6-12 in 1-run games this season.  That's not going to sustain itself.
  • It's still amazing to me how many people expect offense in this era to be the same as it was in the 1990's.  Slash lines pale in comparison for the same reason pitching lines are infinitely more amazing.  I'd recommend you stop yelling at Joey Votto's slugging percentage and start singing the praises of Johnny Cueto's WHIP and Mike Leake's ERA; those two dots are way more connected than many seem to want to acknowledge.
  • I'd love to see what the "Mike Leake should DH" folks have to say after Leake's 0 for 3, 3 K evening at the plate.  Let Bryan Price do his thing.
  • Tunes.

Streamer Report: Streaming Options for Thursday

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Ray highlights some starting pitcher options that you should consider streaming on Thursday, including Tyson Ross and Tyler Skaggs.

The Streamer Report provides you with daily startng pitcher streaming selections for owners who prefer to stream starting pitchers on a daily basis. This report identifies starting pitchers who are owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues, and who either has a decent track record vs their opponent, has pitched well of late, or has a decent matchup.

Thursday's Streamers

Tyson Ross, Padres vs Reds

Ross is owned in 18.2% of leagues right now, but that will change as the season goes along. Ross is coming of two consecutive starts where he has given up just one earned run over seven innings, and faces the Reds who rank 28th in runs scored this season. Look for Ross to pitch well in Cincy on Thursday.

Tyler Skaggs, Angels vs Rays

Skaggs is owned in just over 10% of leagues right now, and he faces the Rays on Thursday night. Skaggs is coming off a solid performance in Toronto in his last start, where he gave up just two runs in eight innings. He is pitching well this season, going 3-1 worth a 4.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in seven starts. His season stat line would look much better had he not get torched by Texas back on May 4th.

Weekly Streamer Performance

I will be providing a status of how my picks have performed over the course of the season, and below you can find how my picks fared this week. Week 6 was very good to me, and hopefully you, but Week 7 has started with a THUMP thanks to Tyler Lyons laying an egg vs the Cubs last night.

Pitcher

IP

H

ER

BB

K

W/L

ERA

WHIP

Tom Koehler

3.67

6

4

5

1

L

9.81

3.00

Tyler Lyons

4

9

9

1

2

L

20.25

2.50

Josh Beckett

6

4

0

3

6

W

0.00

1.17

Mike Leake

8

2

1

1

5

1.13

0.38

Totals

21.67

21

14

10

14

5.81

1.43

Padres draft 2011 review: Jed Hoyer's Legacy Draft

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Jed Hoyer's final draft with the San Diego Padres left the farm system stocked for years to come.

The 2011 draft was the second and final Padres draft for the short-tenured Jed Hoyer. After bungling his first round pick the previous year, this draft needed to be a statement draft. That was true both at the time and as we look back at it now and determine the legacy that Hoyer left behind. It was also true because the first round offered some redemption for Hoyer. The Padres had a surprise year in 2010 where they made the playoff run and therefore their allocated 1st round pick was the 25th overall. However, because their 2010 1st round, 9th overall pick went unsigned they received a compensatory pick. That pick would be the 10th overall in the 2011 draft and came with the caveat that no compensatory pick would be awarded if the player selected with that slot did not sign.

The Padres would use that 10th overall selection to draft Cory Spangenbeng, a speedy infielder from a Florida community college. The pick was a bit of a reach. Hoyer was resistant to gamble on a player that might not signed and went with the safer choice by taking a player higher than was expected in order to give the player a payout that was more than expected and thus easily sign him. Still Spangenberg was a nice prospect that could leg out infield singles and get extra bases by wheeling his way around the bases on balls to the gaps. Expected to play 2B, there would not be pressure on him to hit home runs so it seemed like a good fit. So far Spangenberg has made it to AA and there are questions about if his bat is good enough to get him on base enough to take advantage of his speed. Still, he is far from a total bust and yet accentuates the problem with safe picks. His limitations kept him from projecting as an impact major leaguer.

Fortunately, Hoyer and the Padres rolled the dice more with their later picks. The second first round selection was an Oakland, CA HS pitcher named Joe Ross. The Padres gave Ross some extra signing bonus money to forgo a scholarship at UCLA and immediately become one of the top prospects in the system. Some arm trouble and a so-so 2013 had people wondering if he might take a while to develop, but a fast start to 2014 has people seeing big things for his future. While still not a sure thing, this sort of talent is exactly what you want from a first round pick.

The Padres also had 3 supplemental 1st round picks due to the loss of 3 players to free agency: Jon Garland, Yorvit Torrealba and Kevin Correia. The Padres again swung for the fences with those 3 picks. The first was another HS pitcher, Michael Kelly, who was a high ceiling talent that busted out fairly quick. The second was a HS catcher named Brett Austin who chose North Carolina State instead of the Padres' money. The third was an athletic SS and football player at McNeese State named Jace Peterson. Peterson signed and has steadily climbed the minor league ladder. He even got an early major league debut this season and show some signs of what is to come when he develops. He is currently in AAA and one of the team's best position player prospects.

The best pick of the draft did not come until the Padres 6th selection in the draft. Their second round pick was a catcher committed to UCLA that would require a big bonus. There were a lot of questions about whether the Padres (or anyone) could sign him. That is why he went in the 2nd round instead of the 1st round to begin. However, the organization was able to get it done and Hedges has been the franchise's top prospect ever since. Scouts wax poetic about his defensive skills and defend his bat on being better than a typical catcher. He is currently in AA, is the crown jewel of the farm and his major league debut is eagerly anticipated.

Speaking of eagerly anticipated debuts, the Padres 7th round pick is one that many Padres fans are already familiar with despite him never pitching a big league ball game. Matt Wisler was taken 233rd overall in the draft, but now rivals Hedges for top prospect status in the organization. Wisler was an under-the-radar selection from an Ohio HS that had a switch flip on for him once he started pitching for Padres' farm teams. He has blazed through the minors and at just 21 years of age is pitching in AAA.

Between Ross, Hedges, Wisler, Peterson and Spangenberg you can form most of the organization's current top prospects, but other talents were taken in this draft as well:

-RHP Matt Andriese made it to triple and then was used as a trading chit when the Padres acquired Alex Torres and Jesse Hahn from the Tampa Bay Rays.

-RHP Kevin Quackenbush has gotten a couple of cups of coffee with the Padres and looks to become a bullpen asset one day.

-RHP Burch Smith got an emergency call up last year and then returned in September to show off how he can whiff major league batters pretty well. He is currently fighting arm injuries, but the future is still bright.

-RHP Matt Stites was used as a trading chit in last year's trade for Ian Kennedy. Some scouts say he has closer potential.

-RHP Cody Hebner, OF Kyle Gaedele, RHP Justin Hancock, C Robert Kral, INF Casey McElroy, 1B/OF Lee Orr, RHP Colin Rea, C Jeremy Rodriguez and RHP Dennis O'Grady have had better minor league careers and/or are better prospects than most of the players chosen the year before.

While the draft has yet to produce a major league success the likes of 2010's Jedd Gyorko, the sheer volume of top prospects, solid prospects and potential trading chits makes it one that seems incredibly likely to surpass Hoyer's first draft in terms of major league production. It was his lasting parting gift to the Padres, even if it has not fully been opened yet.

Here is the entire list of players the Padres drafted in 2011:

What's Wrong With Jedd Gyorko?

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As a bat-first second baseman and a key cog in the Padres future plans, the rough start to Gyorko's 2014 is troubling. Where is he struggling, and how can he turn it around?

.194/.222/.267.  Jedd Gyorko's batting line? Nope, that belongs to ex-Padre starter Woody Williams.  Gyorko's is actually worse.  Your twitter feed/annoying friend/inner self-torturing troll is already letting you have it:

"OMG DIDN'T WE SIGN HIM TO AN EXTENSION WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT IF HE'S GONNA BE BAD?"

"A-actually he was pretty good last year and"

"YEAH RIGHT OWNERSHIP IS TOO CHEAP TO SIGN GOOD PLAYERS.  BRING IN THE FENCES!!1!"

But he is playing pretty poorly right now.  The Padres offense is going to continue having problems shifting into high-gear without a useful contribution from the young star who was projected to add meat to the middle of the lineup.  How are things different this season, and where are they going?

The Approach

Gyorko is nearing 150 PA on the season.  Still a relatively small sample, but not insignificant.  Usually by this point k/bb ratio will have stabilized and the batted ball profile should look normal.  Indeed there is nothing surprising about Gyorko's surface-level plate discipline stats - walks and strikeouts look almost identical to last season.  Like my first time, Gyorko's rookie season could be called a "success," but it was also filled with embarrassing moments and proclamations of "I guess that's it."  Gyorko's k/bb ratio is about the same as last year, but it was pretty ugly then too.  The Mountaineer seems to be making a concerted effort to adjust from his aggressive rookie approach in an effort to cut down on strikeouts and increase is OBP.  Although he is seeing close to the same number of pitches per plate appearance (about 3.9) Jedd is swinging at just 45.6% of pitches, after clearing over 50% last season.

There are two reasons for this.  The first is that there is now a "book" on Jedd Gyorko, and that book says to throw him sliders from the right side.  In 2013, Gyorko was worth -5.9 runs on plate appearances that ended in sliders, vs. 3.9 runs above average on plate appearances ending in fastballs.  The scouting reports have picked up on his trouble with breaking balls and the pitchers have caught on.  Gyorko is taking many of these pitches - hoping for a fastball, but many are peppering the strike zone and forcing him to hit from behind in the count.  On the surface, Gyorko's selectivity looks promising since he's swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone (ostensibly cutting down his whiffs), but he's likewise passively watching a lot of his best pitches fall right through his wheelhouse.

The other reason Jedd appears more passive this season could be tough medicine.  Gyorko is swinging at fewer pitches this year because he swung at way too many pitches last year.  While 2013 was largely successful, his .301 on-base percentage was uglier than girls I wake up with after the Svedka wears off.  Towards the end of the season, Gyorko made a noticeable effort to take more pitches and be more selective in his offerings.  In September and October, Jedd drew a walk in 9.4% of plate appearances - up from 6.3% on the season as a whole.  For reference, I tell the Svedka girls to "take a walk" 100% of the time.

Jedd was a relatively patient minor-leaguer who had a strong ability to effectively manage the strikezone.  Sure, this is the scouting equivalent of "he has a really nice personality" but regaining that aspect of his game should help take Gyorko to the next level by cutting down on his strikeouts and improving his sub-par OBP.  In the meantime it could continue to be an ugly transition, but a necessary one for a young player dealing with a league that is constantly trying to identify and exploit his weaknesses.

The Results

When Gyorko does swing at the ball, he is doing a decent job of making contact.  His whiff-rate is still pretty high, but clearly improved over last season's number.  That doesn't mean he isn't getting fooled.  Jedd is hitting a ton of ground balls, and is ice-cold on pitches low in the zone.  This combination is usually indicative of a hitter "saving" a bad swing by rolling over the pitch and reaching for it.  Hitters will often end up making weak contact and pulling the ball (to the left side of the infield in Gyorko's case).

While it's always better to whiff less, the ideal scenario is that Jedd continues to trend towards avoiding bad pitches altogether rather than making weak contact.  The West Virginian second baseman is hitting over 20% more ground balls this year than last, mostly at the expense of line drives.  Gyorko is just having a tough time consistently getting the thick part of the bat onto the ball.  As a guy without the patience of a Yasmani Grandal or the wheels of a Cameron Maybin, Gyorko is going to have to do a better job of making solid contact in order to contribute on offense.

The Verdict

The good news is that Jedd Gyorko was drafted for one reason: to hit.  Hitting is something that Gyorko has done at every level he's played.  Historically, Gyorkstore has shown an admirable ability to adapt to tougher pitching with continued exposure.  After starting slow at virtually every level in the Padres organization - including with the big club in 2013 - Jedd has always found a way to adjust and finish strong.

Many prospects have promising rookie seasons only to wash out and fade away.  I know what you're thinking.... is this about Khalil?  It is, but it isn't.  Both were surprisingly powerful middle-infielders with strike-zone problems, but that's where the similarities end.  Greene never had an OBP greater than .350 after A-ball.  Before 2013, Gyorko hadn't posted an OBP lower than .350 since little league [citation needed].  Greene was billed as a superior athlete with great hair and enough potential to one day figure out how to be a good hitter.  Gyorko's profile was always that of an advanced hitter with lagging tools and the most generic hair imaginable.  Guys like that usually don't make it up to the show unless there is something special in their bats.  It may sound glib, but something has to be said about the fact that "good hitters" find ways to hit.

Friars 2, Reds 1: Headley's Home Run Ruins Reds

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Supporting another amazing Cashner start, the Padres close up the game with a go-ahead in the ninth.

Continuing the hot streak having just seared the Marlins 3 games out of 4; San Diego sends home a W in the form of an old-fashioned Padres' one-run ballgame. This was their first series against the Cincinnati Reds this season, and they thoroughly handled the competition with classic Padres pitching with some small-ball and long-ball sprinkled in.

The bottom of the 1st started a bit ugly; with a leadoff triple from Billy Hamilton, followed up by a sharp single from Brandon Phillips; the Reds were on the board early. Shortly after, Joey Votto smashes one off the right field wall. This sent Phillips over to third, but as far as conceding a hard-hit double? Well, Seth Smith wasn't having none of that.

Smiththrow_medium
Smith fields the carom off the wall perfectly and drills a high strike into second.

After that short offensive parade from the team named after a color, the home team didn't do much of anything else for the remainder of the game. A few innings of harassing us with baserunners here and there, Cashner handled the #FF0000's amazingly for 7 solid innings. Ca$h threw 7H, 1ER, 1BB, 6SO for the afternoon, and snuck out of a tense bases-loaded situation in the bottom of the 6th with a nimble play followed by some clutch pitching.

Cashplay_medium
Ca$h Rules Everything Around Me, makes a heads-up force out at home for out #2.

Back in the 4th, Jedd Gyorko plated our Seth Smith with a sac fly after Smith smacked a double to former-Padre and man-with-a-very-tall-shaped-head Ryan Ludwick. Tying it up early kept the game close and made it appear, by the lack of runs, that we would be going into another extra-innings escapade to start our road trip. But instead of hitting a go-ahead late into the 12th; Chase Headley decided he was going to get to bed at a reasonable hour and serve a 2-out, 99mph fastball from Aroldis Chapman deep into the left field bleachers.

Headleyredshr_medium
Headley shows that with great power comes great earned runs to blow the game.

That did it for the night, as Houston Street slipped in and took care of the remainder of the Reds, skipping Skip Schumaker and recording his 12th save out of 12 opportunities. Carlos Quentin was back in the lineup today, walking in his first at bat for the 2014 season with the Padres. He wrapped up the night grounding out and striking out, but it was good to see the former Chula Vista linebacker take up the batters box with his mass and flowing Hispanic hair again.

So the Padres start off the road trip on a good note. We're now still 6 games back but only two away from .500. We'll see Ian Kennedy on the mound, and hopefully the Reds are prepared for more low-scoring games. A win is a win, but I'm definitely spoiled on 5+ run performances, so let's hope to see those bats tear up the Great American ballpark.

Reds vs. Padres, Games 2/3: Preview/Prediction Thread

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San Diego Padres



@ Cincinnati Reds

Thursday, May 14, 2014
Great American Ball Park

Johnny Cueto v. Ian Kennedy

COMPLETE COVERAGE >


San Diego Padres



@ Cincinnati Reds

Thursday, May 14, 2014
Great American Ball Park

Jeff Francis v. Tyson Ross

COMPLETE COVERAGE >

Doubleheader. I'm already tired of this.

Everything from yesterday still applies for Game 1. Jeff Francis will be on the roster and start Game 2, Nick Christiani is gone-zo. 26th man still to be announced.

It's been raining all morning here.

Go Reds!

Bullpen Log

Reliever5/105/115/125/135/145 day totals
Logan Ondrusek1.0, 15p



1.0 IP, 15 pitches
Sam LeCure




0.0 IP, 0 pitches
J.J. Hoover2.0, 39p



2.0 IP, 39 pitches
Jonathan Broxton




0.0 IP, 0 pitches
Manny Parra
0.2, 9p


0.2 IP, 9 pitches
Aroldis Chapman
1.0, 21p
1.0, 19p
2.0 IP, 40 pitches
Sean Marshall1.0, 15p



1.0 IP, 15 pitches



Padres draft 2012 review: Josh Byrnes' initiation

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This draft seemed eerily similar to the ones that came before it.

The transition from Jed Hoyer's drafts to Josh Byrnes' first draft see to be seamless. Many of the picks under Hoyer's regime were high upside high school arms and athletic position players. Those two archetypes would again make up the majority of higher pick selections in the Padres 2012 draft. Another thing to note about this draft is that it was the last under the old draft pick compensation system. The Padres would receive compensation picks for the loss of free agents Heath Bell and Aaron Harang. Bell netted two picks: a supplemental 1st rounder and the Marlins' 2nd round pick. Harang netted only a supplemental 1st round pick. The Padres also received the 55th overall selection as compensation for failing to sign Brett Austin the year before. Hitting on some of those picks and providing extra talent into the farm system would seem to be key since it would be the last time the Padres would ever receive so many picks that early in the draft.

Byrnes' staff, now with A.J. Hinch as an assistant general manager, Chad McDonald as assistant general manager in charge of player personnel and for the last draft still with Jaron Madison, would take a big swing with their first pick (the 7th overall selection). They drafted another HS pitcher (as the team had done in the previous two years with Karsten Whitson and Joe Ross) that they would have to buy out of a scholarship commitment. The selection was Max Fried and he, like Ross before him, was committed to UCLA. The Padres would pay him $3 million to forgo that scholarship and join the franchise. That was $250K more than what Ross got and $900K more than what Whitson was allegedly offered. The Padres meant business here.

Next came those aforementioned compensation picks. HS RHP Zach Eflin, speedy college OF Travis Jankowski and HS RHP Walker Weickel made up those 3 selections. That meant two more high school pitchers the Padres would have pay handsomely ($1.2 million for Eflin and $2M for Weickel). Jankowski signed for just under $1 million, a tactical move where the Padres knew the college senior did not have the leverage to sign for a bigger bonus. Still even with that compromise, the team got another athletic player in a similar mold to players like Cory Spangenberg, Jace Peterson and Rico Noel drafted in the previous two years. As I mentioned at the beginning, it was a seamless transition from one general manager to the next when it came to the draft.

Everyone of those picks has received there share of plaudits. Max Fried is possibly the one pitcher in the organization that is considered to have ace potential. Zach Eflin easily ranks as one of the team's top 10 prospects and is more than holding his own with Lake Elsinore currently. Travis Jankowski has steadily moved through the farm system and is currently in AA just two years later. Walker Weickel has been loved by scouts since his selection, but has struggled the most of any of the selections and is still working things out with the Fort Wayne TinCaps.

Beyond those top 4, the Padres did well for themselves with other picks:

-Jeremy Baltz, a college OF selected in the 2nd round has hit at every level. He seemed ticket to join Jankowski in AA, but he is currently recovering from an injury that occurred when he collided with another player in Spring Training.

-Dane Phillips, a college C selected with the 2nd Heath Bell compensation pick has earned some love at times from scouts. He currently is hitting very well for the TinCaps and should get a promotion to Lake Elsinore soon.

-Fernando Perez, drafted as a SS out of a community college in the 3rd round is an Otay Ranch HS alum and is still just 20 years old. His bat is killing it with the TinCaps right now. He has since moved away from SS and has played 3B, 2B and 1B.

-Andrew Lockett, a HS pitcher drafted in the 4th round gets praise for his upside, but he needs to stay away from the injury bug.

-Mallex Smith, a 5th round pick out of community college is another speedy OF. He swipes bases with no respect for opposing catchers' feelings.

-Roman Madrid, a college pitcher selected in the 7th round has been excellent for both the Eugene Emeralds and Fort Wayne TinCaps out of the bullpen. The injury bug has bit him in 2014 and he has yet to pitch this season.

-Maxx Tissembaum was the Padres' 11th round selection. The Canadian infielder who blogs about his baseball experience was part of the trade that landed the Padres Alex Torres and Jesse Hahn from the Tampa Bay Rays.

-10th rounder Stephen Carmon, 16th rounder Ronnie Richardson, 24th rounder Chris Nunn and 26th rounder Brandon Alger have all been productive members of the farm system and despite their lack of prospect status you shouldn't count any of them out at this early date.

This draft is still pretty recent, as you can tell since none of these players have even sniffed AAA let alone the majors, but it shapes up to be a pretty good one. Probably not as good as the 2011 draft, but better than the 2010 draft. Although only time will tell if it can produce someone better than 2010's Jedd Gyorko. It's just that there are so many more actual prospects in this draft class than their ever were from the 2010 one.

Here is the rest of the 2012 draft for your perusal:

A's acquire Kyle Blanks from Padres, designate Daric Barton for assignment

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Kyle Blanks will join the team in Cleveland for Friday's series. Daric Barton has been designated for assignment to make room on the 25- and 40-man rosters.

Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Athletics have acquired first baseman/outfielder Kyle Blanks for minor leaguer Jake Goebbert and a player to be named later. The A's have designated first baseman Daric Barton for assignment.

If the Athletics elect to outright Daric Barton to Sacramento and he clears waivers, Barton may elect free agency for the independent reasons that he has greater than three years of MLB service time and has previously been outrighted in his career. Barton would not receive his salary if he elects free agency, and has previously not elected free agency when given the opportunity.

Kyle Blanks has options remaining, and so the Athletics have flexibility if they want to give Nate Freiman an opportunity later in the season if Blanks does not work out as the right-handed portion of a first base platoon with Brandon Moss. Blanks also gives the A's additional choices in the outfield, important given Coco Crisp's knack for picking up day-to-day types of injuries.

Athletics acquire Kyle Blanks from Padres for Jake Goebbert, player to be named later

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The deal will send Blanks to the Athletics for two minor leaguers.

The Oakland Athletics have acquired first baseman/outfielder Kyle Blanks from the San Diego Padres in exchange for outfielder Jake Goebbert and a player to be named later, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-TribuneWe first reported that a deal was in the works earlier in the week, and it became official today.

Blanks, who was optioned to Triple-A by the Padres on Tuesday in what seems to be just a paper move, will immediately join the Athletics' major league club and will serve as the right-handed hitting half of a first base platoon with Brandon Moss. The 27-year old only made ten plate appearances in the big leagues for the Padres this season, notching two singles and scoring a run in that span.

In 239 major league games over the last six seasons with San Diego, Blanks is a lifetime .228 hitter with 28 HR and 98 RBI. He has shown good power numbers throughout his time in the minors, and has potential to break out with a change of scenery in Oakland.

Goebbert, 26, was originally acquired by the A's from the Astros in exchange for left-hander Travis Blackley last year. He was hitting .257 with 6 HR and 25 RBI in 31 games for Triple-A Sacramento, and is expected to join the Padres' Triple-A affiliate in El Paso. A lifetime .278 hitter in six minor league seasons, Goebbert did not rank among the best 30 prospects in the Athletics' system heading into this season.

Kyle Blanks traded to Athletics

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The Athletics have acquired Kyle Blanks from the San Diego Padres for Jake Goebbert and a player to be named later. Daric Barton was designated for assignment.

The Oakland Athletics currently have two first basemen. One is Brandon Moss, and the other is really unpopular. Moss is a left-handed hitter who destroys right-handed pitching, but has been just decent (at best) against lefties during his career (though he's off to a good start against southpaws in 2014). However, given Oakland's affinity for platoon advantages, being "just decent" against pitchers of one hand is not enough for Bob Melvin's tastes.

Therefore, the skipper would prefer to have a right-handed platoon partner to pair with Moss. The only requirement is that the platoon partner must also play competent defense, because the A's are not interested in teaching someone to play first base from scratch (like Alberto Callaspo or Derek Norris) just to get another right-handed bat in the order. That has left them with Daric Barton, who is left-handed but has reverse platoon splits and is the best defender in the organization at his position. Unfortunately, Barton is not hitting at all and his defense, fairly or not, has been defined by the huge, game-changing anecdotal blunders he's made rather than the overall above-average performance.

Enter the trade rumors. With Nate Freiman still marinating in Triple-A, will the A's go after a new player to fill this hole? Will they make a big splash, or will Billy Beane go after his next hidden gem and create a Brandon Moss mirror image in the same way that he plucked Moss himself from oblivion? (I'm imaging a player named Ssom Nodnarb who is a physical mirrored twin of Moss and who feels pain whenever Moss is hit by a pitch and vice versa, a la Tomax and Xamot from G.I. Joe. But I digress ...)

Well, Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish brings us the first name on the rumor mill: Kyle Blanks. And if you have been following the A's for the last 10 years and know who Blanks is, his mention shouldn't surprise you at all. In fact, you've probably been expecting this news for several years now, since Blanks is just the kind of Custian, Allenish, Kilalike, Foxtype, Durazoid, Quadruple-A, no-defense slugger that Beane loves to take a flyer on. At some point in these guys' careers, when no one else is looking, Beane will give them each a trial to see if they can go full Chris Davis. It might be Blanks' turn soon. I actually wrote this article four years ago, and have just been waiting to post it until Beane went after Blanks.

To give you an idea of who Blanks his, here are his career stat lines from Triple-A and MLB:

Blanks, AAA (581 PA's): .295/.394/.568, 33 homers, 72 walks, 135 K's
Blanks, MLB (806 PA's): .228/.310/.401, 28 homers, 71 walks, 242 K's

His Triple-A line is basically one full season that would earn a man MVP votes in the Majors. His MLB line is worse, but it's still exactly league-average (100 OPS+). On the downside, that MLB line is inflated by a strong rookie season in 2009; by the "what have you done for me lately" rule, you can cut off that year and consider that he batted .222/.298/.372 in 634 PA's since 2010. On the bright side, he's still drawing walks and hitting homers at the big league level despite his struggles. He hasn't been all bad, and they can't all be 2006 Frank Thomas.

Blanks is an Adam Dunn-sized right-hander who surprisingly has average to slightly above-average defensive metrics at both first base and left field. I'm not going to assume that means that he's a good defender, but it suggests to me that he's at least passable and that he won't try to catch fly balls in his mouth like Cust did.

But we're A's fans, so we don't care what your overall numbers are. Show us those sweet, sweet splits, baby. You won't be facing right-handers anyway; what can you do against lefties?

Blanks vs. LHP, career: 259 PA's, .237/.336/.397, 32 walks, 58 K's
Blanks vs. RHP, career: 547 PA's, .224/.298/.403, 39 walks, 184 K's
Blanks vs. LHP, 2013: 118 PA's, .282/.373/.456, 12 walks, 26 K's
Blanks vs. RHP, 2013: 190 PA's, .220/.263/.333, 7 walks, 59 K's

Blanks had huge platoon splits in 2013, but so did Derek Norris and we've spent all year decrying that as a small-sample fluke. Blanks' minor league splits (not listed here) do favor his performance against lefties, unlike Norris', but the difference isn't huge there either. And the discrepancy disappears nearly completely when you look at his entire MLB career. Well, it disappears if you're just looking at his percentages.

If you want to see Blanks' platoon splits, look at his strikeout and walk numbers. He retains his power against righties, meaning that he can still punish an occasional mistake, but he is otherwise completely lost against them. He is just flailing like Chris Carter did in his initial MLB trials. But against lefties, that zone tightens up and he starts making contact while still drawing his walks. Even if you gave me the .733 OPS (his career vs. LHP) with pop and plate discipline and average defense in two corner positions, that would be better than what Freiman gave the A's last year, better than what Barton is doing right now, and better than Moss has done in his career against southpaws. And for a whopping $988,000, it would cost virtually nothing to give him a shot. San Diego's reported asking price for Blanks is Jake Goebbert, who is so important that I had to look up his name just now to make sure I spelled it right. If you claim to have heard of Goebbert and say that you'll miss if him if he's traded, then go take a lap for lying to me.

Is Kyle Blanks the answer for the A's at first base? Hell, I don't know. Baseball is a sport whose plotline is written by M. Night Shyamalan, full of twists and turns that you never saw coming. Bartolo Colon actually died of a heart attack five years ago, but the fact that he's been dead all along won't be revealed until he's scheduled to pitch Game 7 of the World Series in October (his positive PED test was for ectoplasm). You can't guess what will happen. But Blanks is exactly the type of player who will fill the void next to Moss, as a no-risk, moderate-reward right-hander with power who can play defense and be picked up for a song. The real question is, why wouldn't the A's give him a chance?

And if Blanks doesn't work out, then maybe someone can give Olmedo Saenz a call.

Johnny Cueto magnificent again. CIN 5, SDP 0.

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The ace of the Reds threw yet another gem in the first game of today's day/night doubleheader.

The Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

If I were to list all of the things Johnny Cueto has done well this season, this recap would be longer than a Stephen King novel.  It would still read like a baseball blogholio wrote it, though, and ain't nobody got time for that.

Hes' off the the best 9 game start to a season of any Cincinnati Reds pitcher in, well, in ever.

Cueto tossed a complete game, 3 hit shutout this afternoon, striking out 8 San Diego Padres in the process.  He allowed just 3 hits - all singles - and a pair of walks, and thanks to a pair of double plays and one Padre being caught stealing, he faced just two batters over the minimum during his 116 pitch afternoon.  Cueto has now thrown at least 7 innings in each of his 9 starts, at least 8 innings in each of his last 6 starts, and has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any of his starts.

As of the end of today's game, he leads all major league starting pitchers in ERA (1.25), IP (72.0), WHIP (0.71), CG (3) and strikeouts (72), and has been as singularly dominant as any player I've ever watched over a month and a half.

Honorable Mentions are due to:  Brandon Phillips, who had a pair of hits - one of which was the superdinger that gave the Reds all the cushion they'd need; Zack Cozart, who had 3 hits on the afternoon; Billy Hamilton, who had a pair of hits to get his OBP back over .300; and Brayan Pena, who smacked a pair of hits in what may be his last start behind the plate before Devin Mesoraco returns from the DL.

Key Plays

  • Both Cueto and Ian Kennedy mowed their way through their opposition for the first 4 innings, but the Reds finally got to Kennedy in the Bottom of the 5th.  Cozart led off the half-inning with an opposite-field single, and after both Cueto and Hamilton were retired, Skipwise the Scrappy singled on a groundball to right that moved Cozart to 3B.  Phillips then launched a rocket that just cleared the tall wall in left for a 3-run dinger.  Reds led, 3-0.
  • Ryan Ludwick's sharply-hit grounder to 3B Chase Headley went for an infield single to lead off the Bottom of the 6th, Pena followed with a mashed double off the wall in right to put runners at 2B and 3B, and Cozart plated both with a single up the middle (despite 1B being open and the pitcher in the on-deck circle).  Reds led, 5-0.
  • Cueto continued his Cuetoian ways, inducing weak grounders and silly whiffs with a change-up so nasty only a mother could love it, and that was that.  Reds win, 5-0!

FanGraph As Flat-lined as the Padres Offense vs. Cueto


Source: FanGraphs

Other Notes
  • Every player in the Reds lineup had at least one hit today aside from Cueto, who was busy doing his slicing-up-eyeballs thing on the mound.  In fact, every position player aside from Ryan Ludwick reached base at least twice.  Way to be super teamy, team!
  • Todd Frazier's 2 hit day give extended his hit streak to 13 games, which includes every game in the month of May.
  • The Reds and Padres will lace them up again later this afternoon for the second game of the doubleheader, with first pitch slated for 6:10 PM.  Jeff Francis was called up from Louisville and will start for the Reds.  In corresponding moves, Mat Latos was moved to the 60 day DL to open a spot on the 40 man roster for Francis, and Nick Christiani was optioned to Louisville to open a spot on the 25 man roster for Francis.  Since it's a doubleheader, the Reds will be allowed a 26th player in the dugout for the second game, and there has not yet been an announcement regarding who that player will be.  I'll guess it'll be Curtis Partch, though.
  • Turns out all Bonnie Tyler needed was Johnny Cueto.

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