The annual sneak peek at what individual career and franchise milestones and records could be set this coming season.
Welcome to year 6 of reading from your truly about the upcoming season's potential milestones. For those that read last year's the format should be familiar, but the numbers always change. For those that want a refresher as to what milestones were achieved in 2013, please refer to my October post that recapped such stats. For those that want more history, feel free to peruse through the archives of 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. Done catching up? Alright let us get to the numbers. There will be at most 2 areas of milestones covered for each player. Round numbers where the player is reaching something that ends in a double or triple zero. And franchise leaderboard moves where a player gets into or improves his place among the top 10 in a Padres statistical category. Maybe some day I will get to write about a Padres player moving up a Major League Baseball leaderboard, but today is not that day.
Back in 2012, Headley's monster year moved him up many of the franchise leaderboards. In 2013 his ascent was steady, but the impact was nowhere near as big as in his best season. When it comes to Chase approaching some round number milestones his 2013 season hurt. A few more healthy games and we could be talking about him approaching his 1,000th hit or 1,000th game played, but even matching his 2012 hit total will not get him to 1000 and he can not play in 169 games this year. So both are out, but he can reach the lesser rounder number of 900 in each. He also has a chance to achieve each of the following:
- 20 HRs would give him 100 for his career. He has only ever hit more than 13 HRs once though when he hit 31 in 2012.
- 26 2Bs will give him 200 for his career. He has never hit fewer than 28 2Bs in a full season, so this milestone is pretty likely.
Next up we look at the franchise leaderboards:
- 2.3 WAR would give Headley the 3rd most by any Padres position player in that stat over his career. He is currently in 6th and would pass Gene Richards, Gene Tenace and Adrian Gonzalez along the way and would sit behind only Tony Gwynn and Dave Winfield. This is the WAR that baseball-reference.com publishes and it includes defense. In that stat Headley has accumulated greater than 2.3 in each of the last 4 seasons. Anybody comfortable with calling Headley the 3rd most productive position player in Padres history?
- 142 games played in 2014 would vault Headley up to 4th in franchise history. He currently sits at 10th with 831, but will pass Brian Giles (833) and Terry Kennedy (835) in the first week. Then it is just Nate Colbert (866), Trevor Hoffman (902), Gene Richards (939) and Tim Flannery (972) till he gets there.
- 408 at bats would give Headley another 4th place in a longevity stat. He is currently 7th with 3007 and would pass Nate Colbert's 3080, Brian Giles' 3129 and Gene Richards' 3414 on the way up.
- As you may have guessed, a similar scenario exists for plate appearances. He is in 8th with 3413 and could get to 4th with 393 more.
- 53 runs scored in 2013 would get Chase Headley into the top 10 in Padres franchise history. He is in 12th with 371 and would need to pass Bip Roberts' 378 and Steve Finley's 423. Once he is there then Phil Nevin's 428, Garry Templeton's 430, Nate Colbert's 442 and Ryan Klesko's 449 are within reach since that would only require 79 runs scored. However, he has only done that once when he got 90 in 2012. He did have 77 in 2010 though. 93 runs scored would tie him for 5th with Adrian Gonzalez. An unlikely, but not impossible 99 runs would tie him for 4th with Brian Giles.
- 64 hits are all that Headley needs to jump from 9th place (809) in franchise history to 5th. Giles currently holds the 5 spot with 872 followed by Gonzalez' 856, Nevin's 842 and Kennedy's 817 also on Chase's path.
- Headley can always be counted on for plenty of doubles and in 2014 he can cement his place in Padres history in that stat by reaching 2nd place in franchise history. He currently is in 7th with 174, but only needs 22 to reach the penultimate slot. Gonzalez' 176, Klesko's 176, Winfield's 179, Giles' 189 and Templeton's 195 stand in his way.
- After his 2012 season, it looked likely that Headley would reach the team's top 10 in home runs. Sadly he fell short in 2013, but it makes it even more likely he will get there in 2014. He is currently 14th with 80 with only 5 dingers needed to pass Steve Finley's 82, Carmelo Martinez' 82, Giles' 83, Fred McGriff's 84 and Khalil Greene's 84. Those 5 would put him in 8th due to the McGriff/Greene tie and would force a tie with Benito Santiago's at 85. Ken Caminiti's 7th place total of 121 is way to far off to talk about.
- Another category, another top 10 awaits. Just 28 RBI added to his currently 12th place total of 369 would take him past Santiago's 375 and Caminiti's 396 and put him in 10th. Once there then 7th place is attainable with Giles' 415, Kennedy's 424 and Templeton's 427 all in reach. Since Headley did tally 115 RBI once, it is worth mentioning that Colbert's 6th place is 112 RBI away.
- 69 walks in 2014 would see him pass Gonzalez' 403 and Tenace's 423 and get to 5th place in franchise history.
- 2 strikeouts are all that separate Headley and Colbert for the lead in that category. In early April Headley will earn the dubious honor of having struck out more than any other Padres player.
- For some reason Headley got hit a lot in 2013. 11 times in total last year to give him 31 for his career. If he gets plunked 6 more times he will have the most the most in franchise history. He would pass Greene's 32, Flannery's 32, Tenace's 35 and record holder Kevin Kouzmanoff's 36.
Round Numbers:
- 9 2Bs would give Venable 100 for his career.
- 126 games player would give him 800.
- 211 plate appearances would tall him 2500.
- 437 at bats would get him to 2500 of those. 2013 was the only year where he got that many at bats in a season, so it is doable but not a given.
Franchise Leaderboards:
- 6 triples would get Venable to 3rd place in franchise history. He is currently in 5th place with 34 and would pass Templeton's 36 and Winfield's 39 to get there. Gene Richards' 2nd place total of 63 is out of reach in 2014.
- Before 2013, Will had never hit more than 13 HRs in a season. 13 HRs in 2014 would only get him into the top 15. However, he hit 22 last season and 22 HRs in 2014 would power him up to 8th place (well probably 9th assuming Headley blasts a few before then). Along the way he would pass Tenace's 68, Kennedy's 76, Cito Gaston's 77, Greg Vaughn's 78, Finley's 82, Martinez' 82, Giles' 83, McGriff's 84 and Greene's 84.
- Venable is usually good for at least 22 SBs. That total would take him from 9th place (108) to either 7th or 8th. Enzo Hernandez has 129 and is currently in 7th. The wild card is 8th place Everth Cabrera who has 118 and will likely get more. If Venable matched his career high of 29 SBs, then he would tie Ozzie Smith for what is currently 5th place with 147 and pass Dave Winfield's 6th place 133.
Round Numbers:
- 11 SBs will give him 100 for his career.
- 98 hits would give him 500. That is theoretically doable even if he misses up to 2 months of the season.
- 34 games played would give him 500.
- 204 plate appearances would get him to 2000.
- 378 at bats would would tally him 2000 there as well.
Franchise Leaderboards:
- While Maybin has 89 SBs for his career, only 70 of them came with the Padres. He will need 32 to get into the top 10 and pass Garry Templeton's 101. That is likely as high as he will go since Cabrera and Venable are moving targets above that and Enzo Hernandez 129 is too far away. Even that aforementioned 32 is pretty far given Maybin's injury and career high of 40. Getting healthy and starting on the regular would likely see him end up somewhere around Roberto Alomar's 90 (14th place) or Rickey Henderson's 91 (13th place). Possibly Luis Salazar's 93 (12th place). Bench coach Dave Roberts' total of 72 is just within reach. Finley's 85 and Quilvio Veras' 87 might be as well.
Last year, Cabrera became the 39th Padres player to represent the club at the All Star game. Another selection would put him in a more exclusive club along with Nate Colbert, Dave Winfield, Randy Jones, Terry Kennedy, Goose Gossage, Steve Garvey, Tony Gwynn, Benito Santiago, Ken Caminiti, Trevor Hoffman, Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell as the 14th player to represent the club twice.
Round Numbers:
- 109 games played would get him to 500.
- 428 plate appearances gets him to 2000.
- 153 hits is potentially doable if he plays a full season for once, and that would get him to 500 for his career. 53 gets him to 400, obviously.
- 1 HR finally gets him to double digits!
Franchise Leaderboards:
- 6 triples would elevate Cabrera to the top 10 in franchise history. He currently has 19 and is tied with Ozzie Smith for 14th. He would pass Bip Roberts' 21, Colbert's 22, Dave Roberts' 23 and Luis Salazer's 24 only the way and move him into a tie with Flannery and Giles for 8th at 25. Everth has hit as many as 8 triples in a season and had 5 last year. He would need at least 9 to get any higher than 8th since Finley is in 7th at 28. Gaston is just ahead with 29, but 10 triples is asking a lot.
- I already mentioned in the Venable section that Cabrera is in 8th place in franchise history with 118 stolen bases. He does not even have to match is career high of 44 SBs to make a move up to 4th place. 31 would get him past Bip Roberts' 148. 53 SBs would be quite the year, but it is worth mentioning that is home he would need to tie Alan Wiggins in 3rd place with 171.
Round Numbers:
- 26 games played from 800, 126 from 900. He hasn't played in more than 118 games since 2010.
- 340 at bats away from 3000. He hasn't done that since 2011.
- 21 hits from 700, 121 hits from 800. 2008 was the last time he had at least that many hits though.
- 27 RBI are all that is need for him to reach 500.
Franchise Leaderbaords:
- Chase Headley has a 5 HBP lead on Quentin due to his longevity, but Q is typically more prolific. Both have a shot at being the franchise leader. Carlos has 26 and is tied for 6th with Sean Burroughs. He needs 11 to pass Kouzmanoff for the franchise lead, that is if Headley already hasn't set a new team record. 11 is typically very doable for Quentin, but he only had 9 in 2013 after 5 straight years of 11 or more. His career high for a season is 23. He already holds the Padres single season HBP record with 17 in 2012.
Round Numbers:
- 16 games away from 600 and 116 from 700.
- 204 plate appearances from 2000.
- 380 at bats from 2000.
- 20 doubles until he reaches the century mark.
Franchise Leaderboards:
- Denorfia currently has the 14th best batting average in franchise history (min. 1500 plate appearances) at .280. It is possible that he could crack the top 10. Dave Winfield is 10th with a .284 batting average. If Denorfia were to say hit .294 over 500 ABs, he would pass Winfield. There are plenty of other combos, but getting close to 500 ABs is doable and Denorfia hit .293 for the Padres in 2012 so he could do something like that. It isn't too likely, but it is possible.
Franchise Leaderboards:
- Yonder Alonso should reach the 1500 plate appearance threshold in 2014 if he plays a full season. He needs 506 and had 619 when he played a full season in 2012. Should he cross that threshold he would be eligible for the franchise rate stats leaderboards. To this point, he has only hit .276 with the Padres, but he has the potential to do better. As mentioned in the Denorfia section, Winfield is 10th with a .284 average. A .300 batting average over the course of that full season would probably get him there.
There are other hitters that reaching round numbers in games played, at bats and plate appearances, but I only wanted to mention those categories for players who have additional milestones on the horizon. Now on to the pitchers.
In 2012, Street became the 38th Padres player to represent the club at the All Star game. Another selection would put him in a more exclusive club along with Nate Colbert, Dave Winfield, Randy Jones, Terry Kennedy, Goose Gossage, Steve Garvey, Tony Gwynn, Benito Santiago, Ken Caminiti, Trevor Hoffman, Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell as the 14th player to represent the club twice.
Round Numbers:
- 16 more saves and he will get to 250 for his career.
Franchise Leaderboards:
- Street needs only 9 saves to go from 7th place in franchise history with 56 saves to 6th place passing Craig Lefferts' 64. Mark Davis' 5th place number of 78 would be next and would require 23 saves to pass. 5 more on top of that (for a total of 84) would pass Goose Gossage's 83 for 4th place. 53 saves is a crazy number and way over a career high for Street, but it's not even a major league record (although it is exactly the franchise record set by Trevor Hoffman in 1998) and would see him pass Rollie Fingers' 3rd place total of 108.
Round Numbers:
- 134 2/3 IP and Kennedy will have 1000 IP for his career.
- If Kennedy finishes the season with an ERA under 4.00 then he will also lower his career ERA under 4.00.
- He is 7 games and 9 games started away from 150 in each of those numbers.
Round Numbers:
- Just 2 more IP and Johnson will reach 1000 IP for his career.
- 85 strikeouts and Josh will have whiffed 1000 in his career.