Last year after 20 games the Padres were tied for the worst start in franchise history with a record of 5-15. This year they have 4 more wins and sit at a 9-11 record. It's not a great start but only mildly embarrassing, like when the tag is hanging out the back of your t-shirt. Last night's loss and all those Padres left on base just made it feel worse.
The 1988 Padres were able to turn a 9-11 start into an 83 win season, the 1969 Padres pooped the bed and only managed 52 wins. Those are the two extremes in Padres history. If I did my math properly and used the formula supplied by Neil Paine correctly, the Padres are currently on pace for a 78 win season. You can read more about his procedure by following the link.
How to Predict MLB Records From Early Results | FiveThirtyEight
Another great thing about this procedure is that the "add 67 games of .500 ball" trick works no matter how far into the season a team is. It’s just as valid now as it will be in late July. The difference between now and then will be the amount of weight that a team’s observed results take in the formula.
Here's how all Padres teams have fared after 20 games.
Win % in first 20 Games
Year | Wins in first 20 games | Win % in first 20 | Season Wins | Season Games | Season Win % |
1971 | 5 | 25 | 61 | 161 | 37.89 |
1987 | 5 | 25 | 65 | 162 | 40.12 |
2013 | 5 | 25 | 76 | 162 | 46.91 |
1974 | 6 | 30 | 60 | 162 | 37.04 |
1981 | 6 | 30 | 41 | 110 | 37.27 |
1970 | 6 | 30 | 63 | 162 | 38.89 |
1994 | 6 | 30 | 47 | 117 | 40.17 |
2012 | 6 | 30 | 76 | 162 | 46.91 |
1973 | 7 | 35 | 60 | 162 | 37.04 |
2003 | 7 | 35 | 64 | 162 | 39.51 |
2001 | 7 | 35 | 79 | 162 | 48.77 |
1978 | 7 | 35 | 84 | 162 | 51.85 |
1979 | 8 | 40 | 68 | 161 | 42.24 |
1977 | 8 | 40 | 69 | 162 | 42.59 |
2011 | 8 | 40 | 71 | 162 | 43.83 |
2006 | 8 | 40 | 88 | 162 | 54.32 |
1969 | 9 | 45 | 52 | 162 | 32.1 |
1993 | 9 | 45 | 61 | 162 | 37.65 |
1972 | 9 | 45 | 58 | 153 | 37.91 |
2008 | 9 | 45 | 63 | 162 | 38.89 |
2002 | 9 | 45 | 66 | 162 | 40.74 |
1980 | 9 | 45 | 73 | 163 | 44.79 |
1976 | 9 | 45 | 73 | 162 | 45.06 |
1999 | 9 | 45 | 74 | 162 | 45.68 |
1990 | 9 | 45 | 75 | 162 | 46.3 |
1997 | 9 | 45 | 76 | 162 | 46.91 |
1995 | 9 | 45 | 70 | 144 | 48.61 |
1983 | 9 | 45 | 81 | 163 | 49.69 |
2005 | 9 | 45 | 82 | 162 | 50.62 |
1988 | 9 | 45 | 83 | 161 | 51.55 |
1975 | 10 | 50 | 71 | 162 | 43.83 |
2000 | 10 | 50 | 76 | 162 | 46.91 |
1992 | 10 | 50 | 82 | 162 | 50.62 |
1989 | 10 | 50 | 89 | 162 | 54.94 |
1986 | 11 | 55 | 74 | 162 | 45.68 |
2009 | 11 | 55 | 75 | 162 | 46.3 |
1985 | 11 | 55 | 83 | 162 | 51.23 |
1991 | 11 | 55 | 84 | 162 | 51.85 |
2004 | 11 | 55 | 87 | 162 | 53.7 |
2007 | 12 | 60 | 89 | 163 | 54.6 |
2010 | 12 | 60 | 90 | 162 | 55.56 |
1996 | 13 | 65 | 91 | 162 | 56.17 |
1982 | 14 | 70 | 81 | 162 | 50 |
1984 | 14 | 70 | 92 | 162 | 56.79 |
1998 | 16 | 80 | 98 | 162 | 60.49 |