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Jesse won't mince words.
No. The Twins should not trade for Cameron Maybin.
Can I end this post right there? My producer is shaking his head "no." So I'll need to come up with at least a couple of other talking points on the subject.
Let's give one of those old-fashioned blind taste tests a try. One player will be the aforementioned Maybin, and the other will be the player central to the debate in the first place - Aaron Hicks. You're going to know who is who, but that doesn't matter. Which guy would you prefer?
Player | Salary | 2015 Age | PA | ISO | BB% | SO% | AVG | OBP | SLG | fWAR |
Player A | $5,000,000 | 28 | 2,068 | .119 | 7.6 | 22.8 | .246 | .309 | .365 | 8.2 |
Player B | $500,000 | 25 | 538 | .111 | 11.2 | 26.0 | .201 | .293 | .313 | -0.7 |
Does anyone actually want Player A? Maybe you do. I'll give you just one reason why I'd support such a move.
While Hicks (Player B, in case you were still trying to figure that out) still has the look of a player who could provide more long-term value than Maybin (Player A), I can understand the desire to protect Hicks until the organization is convinced that he's ready to go. The Twins haven't exactly been stingy with using Hicks these last couple of seasons, and you'd be hard pressed to watch him play and come away believing he was ready to face Major League pitching.
Maybe that's because he's not ready. But sure, you could also argue it's because he'll never be ready to face Major League pitching. We can't say for certain either way.
So: if you think that starting Hicks in Triple-A to start 2015 is the best thing for his development, then yes - the team will need another outfielder. Preferably it would be one who is legitimately good at something useful, like Peter Bourjos (defense) or Jon Jay (all-around), but if it takes Maybin - who strikes me as not that much more reliable than Hicks in spite of four times the experience - to protect Hicks for the long haul, then okay. I can get behind that.
Maybin is owned $10 million over the next two seasons. That's very likely more than he'll be worth on the field, but if it offers Hicks some form of buffer against his long-term success then he would be worth it. It's not like $5 million over each of the next two years will stop the Twins from doing anything.
If, on the other hand, you A) think Hicks is ready as he'll ever be but just want another outfielder, or B) just want another outfielder, I'm not convinced. Steamer projects Maybin to be worth 0.1 fWAR in 2015, while Hicks pulls in at 0.2 fWAR. In terms of 2015 value, these guys look like a push - with Maybin having the higher floor and Hicks the higher ceiling.
Would you trade for Cameron Maybin, considering the excess of outfielders the Padres now have? Or would it be a waste? Or will the Padress want to keep Maybin anyway, just in case they flip Wil Myers for Cole Hamels?