Guess which team gets the "baffling" label?
It sure is nice when recently written topics come up again almost immediately. Earlier on Wednesday, I wrote about the win-now teams, noting that the Astros were slowly creeping toward the right (and and right) side of the scale. Last week, I wrote about the baffling Braves and their baffling offseason.
Today, then, let's explore the even-more-win-now Astros and the dear-goodness-why Braves, who made a trade. The Braves got three prospects. The Astros got Evan Gattis. This means it's time to review the deal instantly, because there's no way this snap judgement could be wrong.
Starting with the Astros perspective:
Houston Astros
They have a major league roster. An honest-to-goodness major league roster. They have a pitching staff filled with pitchers that other teams would actually want. They have a lineup filled with hitters that other teams would actually want. This is a marked difference, and for all the nonsense that they've been through (or put others through) when it comes to how they evaluate players and draft picks, they're on the right track.
That doesn't mean they're a win-now team, though. Not that close. Which means we're right to question their decision to trade three prospects for a major league player. More than that, a major league player with some easily identifiable flaws and warts. What are they thinking?
First, it's easy to think about Gattis as a veteran, a player who isn't going to change until he slowly gets worse. But he's almost closer to a prospect than a veteran. He's not a free agent for four years, and he's still making close to the minimum for next season. And while he's 28 right now, there's an asterisk that goes along with that. He's an unusual 28. He didn't reach the low minors until he was 23 because he left baseball completely at 19, before returning to D-II college ball years later. It's not out of the question that he continues following an atypical development curve.
Second, the deal allows the Astros to deal Dexter Fowler for prospects. Fowler is a free agent after the season. Long-term solution in, short-term concern out. Or if the Astros are getting bold, it'll allow them to deal Jason Castro for even better prospects.
The Astros are closer than you might think. The early returns from the FanGraphs projected standings have the Astros being comparable to teams like the Brewers, White Sox, and Padres -- teams that are thinking, hoping, praying they're contenders in 2015. That's before the Gattis deal.
It doesn't have to be a win-now deal, though. Power is rare; the Astros just got power. The Astros didn't have a long-term solution for left field; now they do. The prospects might pan out, but I'll take the under on any of them having a career as good as Gattis, especially over the next four years.
Atlanta Braves
Oh, Braves. You're supposed to progress over the decades like Jared Leto in My So Called Life, getting more mature and handsome every year. Not Leto in Requiem for a Dream. What happened to you?
I don't mind the decision to rebuild. If the Braves wanted to deal expiring contracts like Jason Heyward and Justin Upton for prospects, move the team's window up a couple years once they realized they weren't going to sign the pair, that makes sense. If they wanted to take it a step further and Billy Beane a player away when he was still cheap, following the better-a-year-too-early philosophy that tends to bring back better prospects, that would have been a bold, understandable decision. All-in on the rebuild.
Nick Markakis, though.
What is ... why did ... the reasoning makes me ... I don't get it. Make the argument for Markasis on the Braves now. Pick any angle. Jump to as many conclusions as you need. Justify $44 million for an average outfielder who is unlikely to do anything but decline over the life of his deal on a team that just traded away an outfield. An entire outfield. They dealt away just about the only power available on the trade market, and they did it with a focus on the distant future more than the near future.
Explain that deal now. Before you answer, remember the spinal fusion surgery!
The Braves were in a tough spot because they gave ill-advised deals to Dan Uggla, B.J. Upton, and Chris Johnson. Why another one, right before the rebuild? The Markakis deal is the Doug Fister trade of the 2014/2015 offseason, the one that will wake me up confused at night, even though I don't root for any of the teams involved.
As for the prospects, well, they might work out unless they don't, and the Braves have a pretty good track record in that regard. Michael Foltynewicz is a big arm, a prototypical righty who started the 2014 season as one of the top-100 prospects in baseball. He had a rough year, but if the Braves see the same glimmer in his arm, I'm not going to argue. Andrew Thurman is less of a known quantity, but again, I'll trust the Braves when it comes to pitching. Rio Ruiz is young for his league, and the doubles hint at burgeoning power. He could be the star of the deal in four years.
In this kind of deal, it's foolish to review the prospects as if you're a seer, a brilliant person who is clearly too smart to work for a baseball team. The Braves see potential, and they've been good at realizing that potential over the last year or 20. But it's not too early to wonder why they got a 31-year-old outfielder to win now at market prices, when they were planning to blow the danged thing up and go on a mini-rebuild.
The Astros got better, possibly at the expense of the future. The Braves possibly improved their ability to contend in the future, but at the expense of the present. The Astros' decision doesn't make sense until you take a closer look. The Braves' decision almost makes sense until you take a closer look at their offseason. The two teams aren't exactly ships passing in the night -- don't forget the projectable talent the Braves still have locked up long term -- but our abilities to figure out the moves of either team are trending in different directions.