The Padres just spent $75 million to sign James Shields. They're probably done, but let's ask if they should be.
The Padres are better than they were before the weekend started. They're much better than they were before the offseason started. Last week, we asked "Should the Padres sign James Shields or trade for Cole Hamels?" The answer was Shields, who was the safest solution in a way. Spending $75 million can never be risk free, but sitting still after a frenzied offseason and coming up just short would have been the bigger risk. The Padres spent all offseason futzing around with a 15-puzzle, and there was no sense putting it down when they got to 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 14. Look at how much better the Padres are, everyone.
Now we need to ask ourselves why they shouldn't get greedy and trade for Cole Hamels.
Oh, there are objections to be raised, sure. Our job is to shoot them down, one by one. Why shouldn't the Padres trade for Cole Hamels, native of the greater San Diego area?
The rotation is full
If the rotation is full of pitchers who are better than Cole Hamels, this is a valid objection. The rotation is not full of pitchers who are better than Hamels, probably because there has never been a rotation in the history of baseball filled with five pitchers better than Hamels is right now. As such, Hamels would improve the Padres drastically.
The Padres were ravaged by elbow locusts, and it would be charming if they were counting wholly on Josh Johnson or Brandon Morrow, but that's not exactly what they're doing. They're not counting on anyone specifically to fill their last rotation spot capably, they're just counting on someone doing it. It could be Johnson, Morrow, Casey Kelly, Cory Luebke, Odrisamer Despaigne, Robbie Erlin, or Matt Wisler for all they care. It's a quantity-of-quality thing, so technically, yes, the Padres rotation is stuffed. They've planned well.
Except there isn't a pitcher up there that makes you think, "Well, they can't drop him from the rotation." That means the rotation isn't full enough to keep Hamels out of it. Try another objection.
Hamels is too expensive
The Padres just dropped $75 million on a starting pitcher. They are also the Padres. Shouldn't they be out of money? Who ... what happened to the real Padres? Somewhere, the real Padres are stuffed in someone's trunk, alone and crying, and you're just sitting there like nothing is wrong.
Whatever the case, the Padres aren't acting like they're out of money.
The Padres are taking over the world: Sources say San Diego is working out Yoan Moncada today and plans to be aggressive in bidding for him.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 9, 2015
If the Padres have enough money to be interested in Moncada, who will cost $60 million to $80 million, then the Padres have enough money for Hamels, who is owed $96 million over the next four years. It's more than just stray tweets that make us think that, though. Here's the Padres' committed payroll for the next few years:
2015: $57 million
2016: $44 million
2017: $46 million
2018: $50 million
That's not including the arbitration-eligible players, but you get the idea. The Padres have enough flexibility to take Hamels on and still be active in future free agent markets.
The Padres shouldn't trade prospects
Prospects are neat. Sometimes they turn into valuable major leaguers! Very, very rarely, they turn into major leaguers as valuable as Cole Hamels. That's exciting.
The Padres tipped over into win-now territory with the Shields signing, though. They should be focusing on how to make the current team better, not worrying about pre-arbitration players giving them flexibility in two or three years. If there's a way to turn Wisler -- about 10th on the starting pitching depth chart, remember -- and others into a few extra wins for 2015, they should seriously explore the idea. The most impressive part of the Padres' hyperactivity is how few prospects they gave up. Jesse Hahn is talented, but the package they sent over for Justin Upton was completely underwhelming. You can argue that the Marlins gave more talent up to get Dee Gordon than the Padres have shed all offseason.
Now, if the Phillies are really holding out for Andrew Cashner, the Padres should probably ignore that. The goal is to build a low-risk, high-reward team, not exchange some of the potential reward for a bigger one. Cashner is a part of the gamble that made the Padres get Upton, Shields, and Matt Kemp in the first place. The same goes for Wil Myers, most likely. But if prospects will get a deal done, there's no sense in the Padres waiting around until July to see what they need. They could get one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. Shipping is free, too.
The good news (for the Padres, not the Phillies) is they don't have an easily identifiable monster like Kris Bryant or Joey Gallo to gum up trade talks because they're untouchable. Every prospect the Padres have should be a possibility, and if they trade three of their best ones for Hamels, they'll still have a bushel of them. The Padres have built a roster that has clearly made them more concerned with 2015 than any other season. They shouldn't fight that feeling.
There are cheaper ways to make the team better
Possibly. Hector Olivera would make a lot of sense for them, and he fills a need that's more pressing than the rotation at a fraction of the cost. Moncada would give the Padres one of the best prospects in baseball, which could make them more comfortable trading prospects at the deadline.
Except don't make the mistake of underrating Hamels. He's been worth five wins or more for five straight seasons. He's made 30 starts or more for seven straight seasons. Here's a list of pitchers with as many WAR through their age-30 season. It's filled with Hall of Famers and All-Stars, and while the Padres don't want to acquire players for what they have done instead of what they will do, there is no way for the Padres to improve more than they would with Hamels. There's no way to come that close, most likely.
There are cheaper, saner ways to improve the Padres. If they finish a game or two out of the postseason race, though, cheaper and saner aren't going to make anyone comfortable.
That's ... I think that's it
Those are silly objections. The Padres should get greedy.
There was a point in the offseason when the Padres were in the middle of Pablo Sandoval rumors, and it was hilarious. What would the Padres do with him, hyuk hyuk? Look at them now. There are three position players left in the Padres' lineup from last year, and they've added a one-year contract (Upton) and spent money on players whose value is almost certainly weighted toward the present (Kemp, Shields). If you have a good objection to them not trading for Hamels, let's hear it.
After 49,389 moves, the Padres could still make one more trade and have a new best player on the team. From here, it looks like there isn't a good reason for them to not keep this impressive, restless offseason going for just one more transaction.