A Look at Padres PECOTA Projections: Part I

A breakdown down of how the Padres will perform in 2014, based on Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system.

Our friends over at Baseball Prospectus recently released the 2014 edition of their PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) projection system. PECOTA was originally developed by Nate Silver, who is best known for his election predictions at FiveThirtyEight.  There are numerous systems that attempt to predict the future performance of baseball players, but PECOTA stands out among them as the most accurate.

Basics

PECOTA projects player performance based on historical player seasons. It incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time and utilizes MLB equivalents to aid in projecting players who are yet to player in the big leagues. Linear weights and regression are also used to provide baselines for each player.

In the chart below, you'll see column for Breakout, Improve, and Collapse. The numbers you see there are percentage chances.

For example, a Breakout score of "8", as in the case of Kyle Blanks, simply means that there is an 8% chance that he will outperform his career baseline TAv of .268 (Total Average, I'll get to that in a minute) average by at least 20%. The "44" you see in the next column under Improve, means that there is a 44% chance that Blanks will outperform his career TAv by even the slightest measure. The "6" in the next column Collapse, indicates a 6% chance that Blanks will underperform his career TAv by at least 25%.

A quick note on TAv: Total Average uses linear weights to assess batting performance. Unlike most other hitting performance metrics, TAv factors in situational hitting and reaching on errors. It also includes park factors and league quality. More information on TAv can be found in Baseball Prospectus' Glossary

I spoke to Baseball Prospectus' Rob McQuown, who added:

Comparables are weighted by how similar they are to the player in question, so Buster Posey's BREAKOUT chance is more highly influenced by what Carlos Santana did in his age 27 season than what, say, Juan Pierre did.

With all of that information in mind, let's take a look at how Baseball Prospectus projects the Padres lineup for this season. (Table below)

The column PT% simply indicates the percentage of the playing time at each position that BP projects each player will see. Because some players will appear in multiple positions, you'll note that certain players appear more than once.

Aside from TAv and Breakout, Improve, and Collapse, I've included PECOTA's projections for some statistics you'll find familiar, the slash line (Avg/OBP/SLG) and WARP. WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) is similar to Fangraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, but is calculated differently.

PECOTA projects the Padres to finish 81-81, so it should be an interesting season in San Diego. How do PECOTA's stack up against your expectations for the Padres hitters this season?

Ryan Potter also writes at Beyond the Box Score and Dynasty Guru. You can follow him on Twitter @80GradeWant