NFBC ADP Rankings Analysis: Starting Pitchers

Ray takes a look at the recent average draft position (ADP) data from NFBC for starting pitchers. Let's see how the rankings from the Fake Teams writers fared vs the NFBC ADP rankings.

Today we take a look at the average draft position data for starting pitchers according to the ADP data from the NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) courtesy of NESN.com.

In addition, I thought it would be helpful to include the Fake Teams consensus starting pitcher rankings in the table below to see how close the collective rankings of eight independent writers fared vs the NFBC ADP rankings. The NFBC rankings are collected from all the NFBC drafts that have completed to date. Each of the NBC drafts consist of 15 teams and 30 rounds, so the data is a good barometer for where players are being drafted.

Quick Thoughts

The NFBC drafters are more confident in Marlins ace Jose Fernandez than we are, but I have to say, I am starting to think he could end the season as the #1 starter in the game. He is fun to watch, and he apparently biked about 600 miles this offseason to build his leg strength, which helps pitchers work deeper into games.

It appears the NFBC drafters are in love with some of the young starters who made their big league debuts in 2013, including Cardinals starter Michael Wacha, Danny Salazar and Tony Cingrani. All three ware terrific last season, but none of them pitched more than 105 innings, and Wacha made just nine starts before dominating in the NLDS and NLCS. 2014 is a different year, and there is no guarantee they will perform well this season. I advise not drafting them until you have at least one of our top 12-15 on your roster.

One pitcher who I am starting to have my reservations about is Tigers ace Justin Verlander. His fastball velocity has declined over the last three to four seasons, and his WHIP rose to 1.30 last season, so he was much more hittable than in previous seasons. I wouldn't want to draft him as if he is still a top 10-12 starter, as there are several pitchers ranked below him that I prefer, including Chris Sale, Zack Greinke, David Price, and James Shields to name a few.

If you want a late round pick, who is no longer a sleeper, try to grab Padres starter Tyson Ross, as he was pretty dominant in the second half of the season, striking out a batter per inning and inducing ground balls at a 50% clip.

Another guy I like late in drafts is Indians hurler Corey Kluber, as he had a bit of a breakout last season, winning 11 of his 24 starts with a sub 4.00 ERA, a strikeout to walk rate over 4.00 and a ground ball rate over 45%.

Starting Pitchers ADPs