Should Alex Anthopoulos have given Josh Johnson the contract that he eventually accepted from San Diego?

Late last night news broke that Josh Johnson had come to an agreement with the San Diego Padres on a free agent contract. The details aren't 100% confirmed as of yet, but it seems that the details being rumoured are fairly accurate. Jeff Passan broke the news and he says the contract:

is worth a guaranteed $8 million and includes another $1.25 million if Johnson reaches 26 starts. Sources told Yahoo Sports that beyond the standard deal, a unique clause exists: Should Johnson make fewer than seven starts in 2014, the Padres would hold a $4 million club option for 2015...

Well, that's pretty good isn't it? It was reported that Johnson had his eyes set on either San Francisco or San Diego as his destination (do you blame him?) and after the Giants signed Tim Hudson, the Padres were the clear favourite. Supposedly, Johnson had offers that were at the very least equally as good as the one from San Diego, but he decided that living and pitching in San Diego was worth it. If you're looking for a quick rebound year before lining yourself for a bigger payday, then Petco Park is definitely a good choice.

The contract is a pretty big win for the Padres as they minimize risk with the cheap 2015 option if Johnson doesn't deliver in 2014. They also were able to keep the base salary very low and even with the 26 start bonus of $1.5 million, the contract is very affordable. An $8 million contract should provide somewhere between one and two wins, which Johnson has accumulated in six of his seven major league seasons with more than 15 starts. In short, if Josh Johnson's 2013 campaign was a blip instead of a warning sign, then this contract is a bargain for the San Diego Padres. There's a clear risk that Josh Johnson will never regain his form and will drift into the abyss, but that possibility would only cost the Padres $8 million. Considering the team has solid starting pitching depth already, this is a risk they can afford to take.

In terms of the Blue Jays, it is clear that Alex Anthopoulos didn't value Josh Johnson at $14 million, but would he have been happy with $8 million? I can't possibly see Anthopoulos turning down the opportunity to sign Johnson to this contract, which would mean he never got a chance to match this deal. Appearing on Sportsnet yesterday, the GM said:

I followed up last week just to see where they were at with it," Anthopoulos said. "The door is still open, the conversation is still there, but I get the sense that there might be better options for him in some other spots.

That quote seems a little strange considering an $8 million offer is not that substantial. I wonder if Anthopoulos had abandoned the idea of bringing Johnson back and let him go elsewhere without much of a fight.

The question for you folks is whether you would have been on board if Josh Johnson returned to the Blue Jays on the deal that he agreed to with the San Diego Padres. Personally, the answer is an absolute yes as the risk is fairly minimal and the possibility of a massive rebound year is well worth the $8 million price tag. What say you?

The San Diego Padres have agreed to a one-year, $8 million deal with free-agent starting pitcher Josh Johnson. Fake Teams breaks down the fantasy implications.

The San Diego Padres and Josh Johnson have agreed to a one-year deal worth $8 million, reports ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.

On Monday, it was reported by the San Francisco Chronicle's Henry Schulman that Johnson's preferred landing spot was the Padres or Giants, given the teams' proximity to his Las Vegas home. San Francisco, however, opted to sign free-agent Tim Hudson, opening up a clearer path to San Diego.

Johnson, 29, is coming off a disappointing season with the Toronto Blue Jays, in which the right-hander posted a 6.20 ERA and 1.66 WHIP, easily the worst marks of his nine-year career. Johnson battled a triceps injury and missed significant time in 2013, making 16 starts while striking out 83 and walking 30 in 81 1/3 innings before undergoing arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow.

Prior to his down year in Toronto, Johnson spent eight seasons with the Marlins, posting a 56-37 record while recording a 3.15 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 144 starts. In 998 career innings, Johnson has struck out 915 batters, or 9.18 strikeouts per nine innings.

Since winning the National League pitching title in 2010, Johnson has battled injuries and inconsistency, missing the majority of the 2011 season with a shoulder injury. He bounced back with a full season in 2012, making 31 starts and posting a 3.81 ERA. His K/9 rate, however, dropped significantly, as Johnson struck out 165 in 191 1/3 innings.

The move to the NL and San Diego is the perfect fantasy landing spot for Johnson, whose advanced pitching metrics in 2013 -- a 4.62 FIP and a 3.58 xFIP -- suggest he wasn't as bad as a 6.20 ERA. (He also had a career-worst .356 BABIP.) Moving from the Rogers Centre in Toronto to Petco Park in San Diego should ease some of the home run troubles Johnson encountered in 2013. In 81-plus innings, Johnson allowed 15 home runs and posted his worst HR/FB rate in his career (18.5 percent). Last season, Toronto's ballpark allowed the third most home runs, according to ESPN Park Factors, while San Diego allowed the 17th most.

At best, Johnson can re-discover a bit of his All-Star past and re-build his value as a premiere starter in the NL. But realistically, Johnson becomes an interesting sleeper candidate and a terrific streaming opportunity in a favorable pitching environment. Johnson's rebounding strikeout rate should comfort owners who take a chance on Johnson becoming much better in 2014, but keep in mind that opposing batters pummeled him last season to the tune of a .299 BA. I'd take a chance on Johnson as a low-end No. 4 starter, with a potential return on investment as a No. 2. But, again, I think that's a long shot.

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Josh Byrnes and Bud Black took to the stage this morning to introduce new Padres pitcher Josh Johnson to the organization and the media.

He's here. Well, not here here. Josh Johnson was at Petco Park this morning at a press conference introducing him to the organization. Below you can see him with Bud Black on the field prior to the press conference.

Look who's getting a tour of his new home field! #PetcoParkpic.twitter.com/0kfcU7d3VV

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) November 20, 2013

That's a big guy. He looks like a quarterback. Johnson is 6'7" and as I mentioned last night, he becomes the tallest Padre on the roster.

In the press conference, Josh Byrnes spoke first. Unfortunately, the presser was going on and I didn't know it.  The page was an MLB screen saver and it was already 10:02am. Refreshed and only heard him say he was turning it over to Bud Black. Sorry, Josh Byrnes. Luckily, Corey Brock helped me out a bit by tweeting out something Byrnes said at the beginning that I missed.

#Padres GM Josh Byrnes at the presser for new SP Josh Johnson: "We want to be an October team."

— Corey Brock (@FollowThePadres) November 20, 2013

What follows is the best I could pick up from a live feed. Those things go by real fast.

Bud Black said that Johnson brings a lot to the table and that he and the staff are really pumped to have Josh here.

After that, Josh Johnson was given the jersey that he will wear in 2014. It is the #55, so that answers the question that Wonko pondered earlier this morning.

@WonkoSD I approve Wonko. Will Dale Thayer approve, or work a deal himself? Go Pads!

— Mark Grant (@Mudcat55) November 20, 2013

As Mark Grant pointed out to him, Dale Thayer might make a deal to give it up and that might be the case. Johnson then took to the microphone and answered questions from the media.

Josh Johnson

• Park is great. City is great. With the staff and the team, it's a perfect fit.

• #1 place was either SF or SD. Saw the deal and wanted to be here.

• Good to have a core that's been together for a few years. Excited to help out the young guys and help these guys get better.

• Talked about Cameron Maybin rehabbing downstairs. Johnson and Maybin were teammates in Florida for 3 years before Maybin was traded to San Diego in November 2010.

  Getting my workout in a josh johnson just walked in! Reunited and it feels so good 👌! #Padres#jj

  — cameron maybin (@spidermayb24) November 20, 2013

• Praised the powerful arms in the rotation. Said he watched those out of the bullpen first, then saw them in the rotation. I think he's talking about Cashner and Ross there.

• He had surgery on October 1st to remove bone spurs and cartilage.

• One of the first things he wants to do is work with Dave Roberts on how to better hold the runners at first.

Josh Byrnes was then back on the mic. There was confusion throughout the press conference when you have two men named Josh sitting inches apart. This question was for him though.

Someone asked if Byrnes was thoroughly happy with the depth? Byrnes said that it is not his nature to oversell, but that the Padres have taken a huge step. In terms of depth, it is a big change. Byrnes said "we feel good about where we are in November." Then, I think he said that they still have the rest of the off-season to keep building/finding more pieces. It was something like that. It's not every day I have to watch, listen, type, and try to screen grab at the same time.

After that, the press conference was drawing to a close. Bud Black had a few final words and they walked away. Of course, that's when jbox tuned in.

Just tuned into the #Padres press conference as they get up and walk away.

— Gaslamp Ball (@gaslampball) November 20, 2013

Anyways, that's what I got from the live feed. It was a good presser. Short and sweet. Think it was only 20 minutes. Hopefully they can post it up on the Padres website soon so I can add it to the summary for those of you who missed it and what to hear what I missed and/or misquoted.

UPDATE

Josh Johnson signs on the dotted line.

Josh Johnson is now officially a Padre! #WelcomeJoshpic.twitter.com/fw0EKh6wEk

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) November 20, 2013

UPDATE 2

Short videos of the press conference and Corey Brock discussing the Johnson signing

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Padres sign a pitcher with a good pedigree coming off the worst season of his career. What can they look forward to?

There has been a lot of excitement lately about the signing of Josh Johnson. I do not want to tell anyone not to get excited, but I do want to to share some pros and cons about the Padres' latest signing. First the pros. Here are some Josh Johnson stat lines from 2009 and 2010:

Great stuff. Ace level performances. He was an All Star both seasons and finished 5th in the Cy Young voting in 2010. It is extremely unlikely the Padres are getting that Josh Johnson. One of the main things that will prevent the new signing from reaching those heights are injuries.

In 2010, he made his final start on September 4. He was shelved that season due to back pain. In 2011, he only made 9 starts because he had right shoulder inflammation that plagued him all year. In 2012, he stayed healthy, but there was a definite decline in his stuff (more on that later). In 2013, he spent time on the disabled list with a right triceps injury and inflammation in his elbow. When the season was over he had surgery on his right elbow to remove bone spurs. And all of this is just since his two great All Star seasons. Before that, in 2007, he had Tommy John surgery.

I always hesitate to call anyone injury prone, but Johnson's injury history is certainly lengthy. In some ways it reminds me of 2008 Padres signee and former All Star Randy Wolf, who needed to a healthy season to restart his career. He had that in San Diego. He was not very good with the Friars, but went on to have good performances in Houston, Los Angeles and Milwaukee. That anecdote gives us pause as well as hope.

The hope that he is an All Star level ace though should be packed away. Instead what may be the hope is a repeat of his 2012 season, his final one with the Marlins. That was the season I mentioned as showing a decline in his stuff. However, even with that it was not a bad one. Here are his 2012 and 2013 numbers side-by-side:

You see? Nothing about that 2012 line looks bad except all the losses accumulated playing on a bad Marlins team. He was able to pull off a season like that despite (when compared to 2009-2010 numbers) a drop in K% (strikeouts per batter faced), an increase in BB% (walks per batter faced), a drop in average fastball velocity (from about ~95 MPH to 92.8 MPH) and close to a 50% drop in the overall value of each of his pitches (fastball, slider, changeup). I included 2011 in the accompanying table for completeness' sake, but keep in mind he only made 9 starts that season:

Considering that 2012 was as close to a healthy season as Josh Johnson has seen in the last 3 years, it would seem to indicate that would be his best possible outcome for any future healthy seasons. His 2013 season was not a healthy one and involved elbow troubles which certainly would affect one's performance. So, it is reasonable to try to hand wave that major blip away and hope for something better. You can peruse the internets and find a couple of different places where people will do just that using statistics (look at that sexy xFIP) and anecdotes (it's a mechanical issue, totally fixable, just needs better coaching than the Jays had).

The next question is, does a 2012-like season provide value to the Padres? Why yes, it does. That 3.3 to 3.5 WAR season (or if you hate the WAR moniker you can say Wins+ like SBN's own Rob Neyer) would be extremely useful to the Padres. That would be more valuable than the top performers on the the 2011, 2012 and 2013 staffs. The last Padres pitcher to cross the 3 WAR threshold was Mat Latos (2011 by fWAR, 2010 by fWAR and bWAR). It's not an ace level, all star caliber performance (at least 40 pitchers reached 3 WAR last year), but it might just look like it on the Padres roster.

I have yet to mention the dollars involved here. One year, $8M. For comparison purposes, Ervin Santana was essentially a 3 WAR pitcher last season (as well as in 2006, 2010 and 2011) and had some down years as well (2012, 2009 and 2007). He cost the Kansas City Royals $12 million (plus the Angels paid an addition $1 million of his salary) and his looking for a multiyear contract. When you put Johnson's deal against that one, you can start to understand why some would call it a steal.

Here's hoping that the Padres beleaguered training staff can keep Johnson healthy and see the rotation upgrade that he has the potential to be.

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It's been too gloomy here for the last few weeks. I don't like gloomy.

Despite the fact that the Cincinnati Reds won 90 games and made the playoffs in 2013, the last two months haven't exactly qualified as one of the greater stretches in the history of the franchise.  To painfully recount, that time frame has seen the Reds:

• swept at home by their division rival, the Pittsburgh Pirates, to end their season in 3rd place in the NL Central.
• handed defeat by those same Pirates in a slow, predictable, agonizing game in front of a rejuvenated PNC Park.
• shed themselves of manager Dusty Baker despite postseason appearances in 3 of the last 4 seasons.
• have a Qualifying Offer declined by their CF, Shin-Soo Choo, while we all have been inundated with magnanimous amount it will cost to bring him back.
• watch as Free Agent pitcher Bronson Arroyo is linked with every team under the sun except the Reds.
• sign catcher Brayan Pena, leaving writing on the wall for fan favorite and team catching stalwart Ryan Hanigan.
• sign former Cardinal and negative-WAR superstar Skip Schumaker to a puzzlingly expensive 2 year contract.
• definitively and publicly linked - by several major sources - with wanting to trade long time 2B Brandon Phillips at nearly all costs due to their inability to coexist.

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Besides the Josh Johnson signing, there's been more good news about the Padres starting rotation today.  Cory Luebke, who was out all last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, is finally starting to make some progress.

You may remember that his time table for a comeback was continually being pushed back over the summer.  Back in September I had even heard XX1090 host Coach Kentera say that Luebke may need further surgery and not be available for opening day.  You may further remember that I asked General Manager Josh Byrnes about this comment and he admitted that Luebke was still experiencing pain and stiffness, but wouldn't comment on a possible surgical solution.

Earlier this week Padres manager Bud Black told XX 1090 producer Marty Caswell that Luebke has been feeling better the last few weeks and was expected to throw some pitches here in San Diego.

Today UT reporter Bill Center tweeted out this morsel of information:

Some Luebke news: Threw 25 pitches to live hitters at San Diego State this weekend. 85-90, fastball and change only. Felt good.

— U-T Padres (@UTPadres) November 20, 2013

Twenty-five pitches may not be a lot to go on,  but it's progress.  Just the fact that he's feeling good is a relief.

Just before 5:00 this afternoon, Dean Anna sent out the following tweet:

Want to thank the padres for everything. Just been traded to the New York Yankees. Excited for the new opportunity.

— Dean Anna (@DeanOfSwing) November 21, 2013

Anna, a lefty batter who played mostly second base and shortstop, hit .331/.410/.482 with nine home runs in Tucson this past season and played in the Triple-A All Star Game. Many Padres fans were hoping to see him to get a cup of coffee with the big league club in 2013, but it never happened (and Wonko discussed why that was here). Now, as we reach the deadline to protect minor league players from the Rule 5 Draft, Anna has become the first San Diego player to be traded. In doing so, the Padres are free from having to find room for him on the 40-man roster and they get something in return rather than risking losing him for nothing in next month's Rule 5 Draft.

In exchange for the infielder, the Padres get 24-year-old reliever Ben Paullus. The right-hander put up a 3.01 ERA in 2013, collecting 66 strikeouts and issuing 28 walks, as he spent time in both low-A and high-A ball. Corey Brock predicts that Paullus will begin the 2014 season in Lake Elsinore, so he'll be right up the 15 from the big league club in San Diego.

Anyone have any strong opinions about the trade? I'm guessing some people will be sad to see Anna go, but it seems to make sense for the club.

More from Gaslamp Ball:

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• Cory Luebke threw 25 pitches to live hitters and feels good doing it
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Josh Johnson received a contract for 2014 with the San Diego Padres for $8M. If Johnson makes fewer than seven starts, the Padres will get a team option of $4M. This looks like good value for the Padres. It can't possibly be worse value than the Blue Jays got from Johnson. This article estimates what that value was.

Now that Josh Johnson has signed with the Padres, we can finally, completely close the book on him. Hopefully the Padres get better value out of Johnson than the Blue Jays did. Considering the unmitigated disaster that Johnson was for the Jays, it'd be hard to imagine him working out worse. Let's compare the impact of the Johnson deal to the impact of the Vernon Wells contract. Now, this only looks at the direct impacts on the Jays; since Alex Anthopoulos moved Vernon's heavily backloaded contract before the total collapse Vernon's seen the past couple years, impact of Vernon's contract on the Jays drastically understates the impact of the contract on the whole.

For each player, there are generally three elements of value exchange: 1) cost of acquisition; 2) cost of salary obligation; and 3) value of play.

The Vernon Wells Contract

Cost of Acquisition: the Jays already had Vernon. If they'd let him walk, he'd have been a Type A free agent and netted them two picks. The value of those picks is not exact, but likely somewhere between $5M and $7.5M. Total: $7.5M.

Cost of Salary Obligations: The three seasons the Jays were responsible for the Vernon Wells deal cost $40M, plus the $5M that they paid to the Angels to move him. Total: $45M.

Value of Play: According to FanGraphs, he was worth around $+20M during that time.

Other factors: The value of two years of team control for Mike Napoli should partially offset that (Napoli provided around $20M during those two season). Unfortunately, they flipped Napoli for Francisco who provided about zero surplus (including the comp pick). Still, I'm not going to include Napoli's value here because the Jays didn't actually get anything from him besides Francisco and the pick, the total value of which was about equivalent to Francisco's salary.

Estimated Value of Wells contract to Jays: $20M - $45M - $7.5M = Total: $-32M

(N.B., of course, that this does not include the immense surplus value he provided before signing that contract.)

The Josh Johnson Trade

Cost of Acquisition: Johnson was acquired in a trade. Let's try and put a value on those players the Jays gave up. Well, considering that the John Buck, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, and Emilio Bonifacio contracts added up to about zero surplus value, a somewhat conservative estimate might be that Johnson was worth only half of the $57.5 M of surplus value that the Jays gave up in MLB players and none of the value of their prospects, $28.75M.

Cost of Salary Obligations: Josh Johnson was signed for $13.75M last season.

Value of Performance: FIP is kinder to Johnson but, for argument's sake, let's go by rWAR, which models his value based on the actual number of runs he gave up rather than what would be predicted by his walks, strikeouts, home runs, and innings pitched. By rWAR, Johnson was markedly below replacement-level. Total: $-7.25M

Estimated Value (by rWAR) of Johnson acquisition to Jays: $-7.25M - $28.5M -$ 13.75M = Total: $-59M

Now, wins are worth a lot more on the free agent market than when Wells signed his contract back before the 2007 season. Adjusting for that inflation, the negative value of the Wells deal would be about eight wins. The negative value of the Johnson trade is approximately 11 wins. Of course, don't forget that we're being pretty conservative in our estimate of the cost of his acquisition. If you assume that all the surplus value of the players was tied up in Josh and the prospects the Jays included covered the combined value of Reyes, Buehrle, Bonifacio, and Buck, then the negative value of the Johnson trade is 16 wins.

The silver lining is that, because the Padres signed him as a free agent, Johnson can't possibly hurt them as much as he hurt the Jays. Assuming they pick up his $4M option, he'll be paid a total of $12M. To provide $-47M in value, Johnson would have to be worth a combined -8.5 WAR over the next two years. Of course, to provide that kind of value, he'd likely have to pitch too much in 2014 for the Padres to have an option.

Unfinished business, Josh? Yep, you could say that.

Thanks to the Violent Femmes, whose "Kiss Off" inspired today's title.

The Josh Johnson acquisition adds an above-average MLB starter to an already deep stable of pitching assets. With clearly-defined needs on the 25 man roster and a farm system devoid of impact position players, how can the Padres use their pitching surplus to address issues elsewhere?

This offseason Bud Black, Josh Byrnes and co. have clearly transmitted their intention to acquire a top end starter, a lefty reliever, and a left-handed bat Despite being "pretty deep" at starter, the Padres had a low-risk upgrade fall into their laps in Josh Johnson. This opens up a lot of opportunities for the Padres to get creative in addressing their other needs going into 2014 and beyond.

The Padres still have a few million to play with in their 2014 payroll. There are some interesting LOOGY-type relievers, but few left-handed bats in San Diego's price range. Based on the condition of the market, it looks like the Padres might try to sign a reliever off the scrap heap and trade for a bat, possibly a young and cost-controlled one. To make a move like this happen, the Padres are going to have to part with some talent that the open market finds valuable.

The ideal trade would involve somebody who has more value on the open market than they do to the Padres organization. ignoring players that are projected to make the 25-man roster out of spring training, let's look at some fluid assets the team might move.

Tier one - the most valuable arms

Casey Kelly, Cory Luebke, Max Fried, Zach Eflin, Matt Wisler

Kelly and Luebke are MLB-ready and highly regarded (Luebke has already seen a lot of big league success), but their value is currently bottomed-out as neither has thrown a competitive pitch since Tommy John surgery last year. Fried and Eflin have both been impressive in terms of stuff and results, but both are still teenagers. Those kinds of pitching prospects are rarely moved before their 20th birthday because of the risk and upside involved. Wisler is far enough along in his development with enough upside to net a pretty good return. After an impressive age-20 season in AA, he'll either repeat the level or languish in the PCL - where pitching prospects go to die. His stock has been steadily rising, but it may never be as high as it is right now

I think there is a pretty low probability that any of these guys gets traded, but Wisler is probably the most fungible piece. He's just unlucky enough to be buried on the depth chart at the wrong time.

Tier two - the intriguing pieces

Matt Andriese, Walker Weickel, Burch Smith, Robbie Erlin

Weickel is all upside at this point, without much of a proven track record. Still, he's got a great frame and some good offerings. Andriese looks like a version of Matt Wisler a year from now - his hype has taken a hit from a somewhat "meh' performance at at AAA, and combined with his age you can see a little shine leaving from his prospect hype. Padres fans got a good look at Burch Smith and Robbie Erlin in 2013. Both players spilled their spaghetti when they were first called up, but finished strong once the team told them they weren't being sent back down in September. Each guy looks like they might make a useful major leaguer but they come with question marks - but they are both young and virtually ready to be plugged into some adventurous or desperate team's rotation out of spring training.

I think Burch Smith is most likely to be moved. He's promising enough to be valuable, but redundant on a team full of power righties who are already more developed and well-rounded than he is. Erlin is probably just as movable, but he's got the makeup and repertoire that pitching coaches love, and they hold a lot of sway with the front office.

Tier three - wild cards and throw-ins

Joe Ross, Keyvius Sampson, Adys Portillo, Joe Wieland, Anthony Bass, Donn Roach

Everyone here is either obviously flawed or hurt. Sampson loses the strikezone for Volquez-like stretches. Portillo and Wieland are recovering from surgery. Ross is young and hurt. Roach and Bass have stalled out in their development. Still you could make the case that any of them will deserve a shot at a rotation spot soon. Sampson, Roach, and Bass all seem to have repertoires that would make them natural candidates for a transition to the bullpen, where they could be useful pieces for the Padres in the immediate future.

The Padres seem momentarily rich at starting pitching but they've also got to plan for the years beyond 2014 when they could lose Johnson, Ian Kennedy, or both to free agency. With the current pitching-heavy farm system, the front office might take this opportunity pull off some prospect-for-prospect trades in order to balance the system with position players. The team has metaphorical money to burn on the trade market, but it would be foolish to start spending next month's rent on a new PS4. Who do you think the front office is most likely to move, and who do you think they'll go after?

The Yankees get some much-needed middle infield depth by acquiring Dean Anna from the Padres.

The Yankees have acquired middle infielder Dean Anna from the San Diego Padres in exchange for right-handed reliever Ben Paullus, reports Andrew Marchand. Anna will be added to the Yankees' 40-man roster.

Anna, who turns 27 on the 24th, is a six-year minor leaguer who was drafted in the 26th round of the 2008 draft by the Friars and has yet to appear in the Major Leagues. In his minor league career, Anna is a .286/.386/.428 hitter and boasts solid walk (12.5%) and strikeout (13%) rates. 2013 was Anna's best season in the minors, hitting .331/.410/.482 in over 580 plate appearances in Triple-A, albeit in the offensively-favored Pacific Coast League. Anna, a left-handed batter, can play shortstop, second, third base, and some outfield, but mostly played second base (72 games) and shortstop (60 games) in 2013.

Paullus, the right-handed reliever the Yankees gave up to get Anna, appeared in 87 games in the Yankees' organization, and pitched to a 4.34 ERA and 3.52 FIP from 2011-2013. The 24-year-old Paullus also pitched to a 3.14 ERA and 3.23 FIP split between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa this past season.

I feel like this a good trade for the Yankees. They get a guy in Anna who will provide some much-needed middle infield depth down in Triple-A Scranton and gave up next to nothing in the process.

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Just let it happen, Yankees

For those afraid that Phil Hughes will be back in New York for the 2014 season, you might actually be right. Thankfully, it's the Mets that are interested in the right-handed starter. The Mets say they have money to spend, but the 28-year-old would work easily into their budget while they pursue someone more costly.

The Yankees seem to have no interest in bringing him back, even though he'll be the youngest free agent pitcher on the market. Honestly, everything will have to go wrong for the Yankees to want him back, and I think that's all for the best. Though, it's always possible they could regain interest if Hiroki Kuroda decides to retire and they can't sign Masahiro Tanaka.

While he could probably be signed by the Yankees for cheap, I think everyone has seen enough of the once-promising prospect that was Phil Hughes. It's time to let him go and make him someone else's problem because the Yankees can easily find better. He needs to be in a big ballpark in the National League so he can reduce his home run totals. AT&T Park with the Giants and Petco Park with the Padres looked like good destinations, but Citi Field, even with the fences moved in, could be great for him.

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Josh Byrnes interview with Lee "Hacksaw" Hamilton, Jay Paris and Laura McKeeman

• Byrnes says the Padres have been tracking Josh Johnson all along.  "The more he struggled, the more we scouted him."  The Padres aggressively went after Johnson as their primary target. 
  
• Johnson is a power pitcher.  He's lost some speed on his fastball since the 2010 season but he has a terrific slider and pretty good curve ball.  The Padres will work on Johnson's change up with him.  At his best, there was no better stuff in the National League.
• "Our starting pitching has come such a long way.  I'm feeling really good about it."  Byrnes isn't sure if they'll keep the current pitching depth or use it to trade for other pieces.  "Teams that improve in the standings do it with pitching."  Byrnes now thinks that the Padres have the pitching to compete with the elite teams in the National League.
• "The more he struggled, the more we scouted him." -Josh Byrnes on Josh Johnson
  Joe Wieland and Cory Luebke are both pitching to hitters now after their Tommy John surgery.  Luebke was emerging as a front of the rotation starter before he got hurt.
• Byrnes is getting the sense that Cameron Maybin is finally feeling good after a year of nagging injuries.  "He's starting to get that look in his eye like he can't wait for Spring Training."
• It was hard for Byrnes to cut down the 40 man roster.  All four players they designated for assignment were good players.  Byrnes doubts any of them will clear waivers.
• Byrnes says he hasn't really received any calls from GMs about trading Chase Headley.  The possibility of trading Chase is a non-event.  The Padres are trying to win in 2014.  The scenario is they either sign him to a long term deal, trade him or let him play out his contract and become a free agent at the end of the season.

More from Gaslamp Ball:

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• Cory Luebke threw 25 pitches to live hitters and feels good doing it
• Padres signing of Josh Johnson is FRESH!
• Padres offseason: 5 most pivotal players

Could Granderson get an encore in New York after all?

Curtis Granderson turned down the Yankees' qualifying offer earlier this month, but the team still considers him a serious target, Brian Cashman told the New York Post. The Yankees have obvious holes in their outfield with Granderson hitting free agency and Vernon Wells and Ichiro Suzuki no longer representing starting-caliber players. Though they have been more vocally connected to the likes of Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Beltran to fill that void, Cashman maintains that the Yankees are interested in a reunion with Granderson, who isn't merely a Plan B for them.

The 2013 season was a disaster for Granderson after an errant pitch in spring training sidelined him for a good chunk of the beginning of the season, only to find himself back on the DL shortly after returning to baseball after another errant pitch broke his pinky. Assuming that that kind of bad luck can only be attributed to the fact that the 2013 season was cursed for nearly every Yankee, there is reason to hope that he will rebound in a big way from his disappointing .229/.317/.407 batting line in 61 games. Granderson will only be a couple seasons removed from putting up consecutive 40+ home run seasons in 2012 and 2013, with his lefty swing fitting in nicely for Yankee Stadium's short porch. Re-signing Granderson isn't without risk, however. The strikeouts do pile up with alarming frequency at times and he hasn't been the threat on the bases he was back in 2011 when he stole 25 bases. His curious defensive routes may be minimized now that Brett Gardner seems to be the one tapped to patrol center field, but he can still make you shake your head when he runs forward on a ball hit well over his head.

With Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury, among others, still set to receive a much higher payday this offseason than Granderson, the Yankees may see him as a way to get a player capable of producing at a high level while saving the extra money to put toward other areas of need. If they are serious about bringing in Brian McCann for the complete offensive and defensive abyss at catcher, they may consider pinching a few pennies elsewhere. Still, it seems as though they might rather have Choo than Granderson, even with each one presenting their own downsides. Granderson has carried himself in New York as well as anyone, and if history holds, that could mean something to the front office when it comes right down to it.

Is there a price you'd be okay the Yankees paying to bring Granderson back, or do you hope they move on completely while they have the chance?

More from Pinstripe Alley:

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• Joe Nathan Free Agency: Yankees make him a secondary priority
• Yankees add six to the 40-man roster
• Yankees acquire infielder Dean Anna from Padres
• Brian McCann Free Agency: Expected to start visiting teams
• Alex Rodriguez storms out of appeal hearing

So many pitchers, but only five spots in the rotation.

Now that the Padres have signed Josh Johnson, they have the deepest roster of starting pitchers San Diego has seen in years. But who's going to make the rotation? Johnson is obviously in, and so is Ian Kennedy. Andrew Cashner is probably the third and last shoe-in, given his stellar performance last season. That leaves two spaces left for tinkering, and there's plenty of competition.

The Usual Suspects

Eric Stults and Tyson Ross have the most claim to those spots. Though Stults ran into trouble toward the end of the season, he proved a reliable workhorse as the only Padre to toss more than 200 innings. Tyson Ross had some issues of his own, suffering from a dislocated left shoulder early in the season. That's an issue that's prone to happening again (see Dustin Moseley), but Ross had surgery at the end of the season that should reduce the chances of it happening again. But Ross put together nearly a dozen solid starts when he returned to the rotation after a brief stint in Tucson.

The Comeback Candidates

Neither Cory Luebke nor Joe Wieland have set foot on a major league mound since 2012. Tommy John surgery sucks that way. We'd all love to see Luebke come back and repeat his stellar performance from 2011, but it looks like he won't be ready in time for spring training. He's more likely to make an appearance midseason. Wieland, on the other hand, threw a few pitches in the Arizona Fall League and is expected to be good to go this spring. That said, he wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire the last time he saw the big leagues, so it seems likely that he'll start the season in El Paso.

The Young Guns

Burch Smith and Robbie Erlin saw time with the big league club in the first half of last season before returning in September. Their stories are similar: After impressing in AA, they got a chance to fill in for the Padres, struggled, and then came back in September with some promising performances. They'll have to look really good in spring training to make the opening day rotation, but barring a trade, we're likely to see them in San Diego at some point during the season.

The Longest Shot

You might have heard about Matt Wisler. If you did, it's probably because he spent the beginning of last year utterly destroying the opposition in Lake Elsinore before being promoted to San Antonio, where he proved just as effective. He's not even on the 40 man roster, and he's had less than a full season in AA, but Burch Smith got called up in May on less. Realistically, there would have to be a real disaster to bring him up for Opening Day. Keep an eye on him, though. If he keeps showing off, it'll be hard to keep him down.

So, with all that said, here's my prediction:

1. Cashner
2. Johnson
3. Ross
4. Kennedy
5. Stults

Sound off with your predictions in the comments.

Last Time on Pinstripe Alley

• Alex Rodriguez arbitration hearing comes to a close
• Yankees rumors: Curtis Granderson remains a serious target
• Phil Hughes Free Agency: Mets have interest
• Pinstripe Alley Podcast Episode 28: Brunch with the Man from Milwaukee
• Peter Gammons compares Alex Rodriguez to the Marathon Bomber
• Joe Nathan Free Agency: Yankees make him a secondary priority
• Yankees add six to the 40-man roster
• Yankees acquire infielder Dean Anna from Padres
• Brian McCann Free Agency: Expected to start visiting teams
• Yankees Top Moments: (#3) Ruth's called shot vs. (#6) Martin wins '53 World Series

Yankees News

• Getting Blanked: Dustin Parkes:Alex Rodriguez causes normally objective baseball writers to behave irrationally.
• MLB.com: Barry Bloom: Michael Weiner, head of the MLB Players Association, has died at the age of 51 after a 15-month fight against brain cancer. He was head of the MLBPA for four years, but he had been involved in the organization since 1988.
• CBS Sports | Dayn Perry: Vernon Wells has one of the worst contracts for an outfielder, second only to Matt Kemp.
• Baseball America | J.J. Cooper: The Yankees' Dan Burawa could be a player to watch in this year's Rule 5 Draft.
• CBS Sports | Dayn Perry: Toys 'R' Us has put their A-Rod toys on clearance.
• ESPN New York: David Schoenfield: Now that the Rangers have traded Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder, they could make a run at Robinson Cano.
• Baseball America | John Manuel: A look into the Yankees trade of Ben Paullus to the Padres for Dean Anna.
• NoMaas | SJK: The trade for Dean Anna could be another sign that Eduardo Nunez is doomed.
• ESPN New York | Wallace Matthews: Alex Rodriguez and his lawyers say they are planning to release all the evidence they have against MLB.
• It's About the Money | Brad Vietrogoski: Projecting a $189 million budgeted Yankees roster.
• ESPN New York | Andrew Marchand:Mariano Rivera got his own street for a day.

Coming Up Today

• Yankees Top Moments: Ruth's 60th vs. DiMaggio's 56th @ 9 am
• Yankees sign infielder Yamaico Navarro @ 11 am
• Robinson Cano Free Agency: Ian Kinsler-Prince Fielder trade changes the market @ 1 pm
• Rule 5 Draft: Three Yankees who could be chosen @ 3 pm
• Yankees Attendance: What the trend in declining attendance means @ 5 pm
• Free agent retrospective: Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright @ 7 pm

A few days back I blogged about the Padres' last games in first place and I totaled up the number of games they spent in first place for each season.  From my tally they have spent 984 games total in first place out of their 7,166 regular season games since their first Opening Day in 1969.  That's roughly 14%.  In contrast the Padres have spent 2,439 games in last place in their division, which equates to 34% of the games.

The Padres have always been in the National League West since its creation in 1969.  If I researched this properly the division had 6 teams in it from 1969-1992.  For one year in 1993, they had 7 teams when the Colorado Rockies were welcomed into the league.  Then in 1994 when the National League Central was born, the NL West shrunk to 4 teams.  With the Arizona Diamondbacks coming on the scene in 1998 it grew to 5 teams where it remains today.

So with all that in mind I counted up all the games that the Padres spent in last place for each season for your consumption.  Feast on it.

Games in Last Place

I saw Left Coast Bias mention this, so I figured I'd spread the word.

Padres legend Trevor Hoffman is among a group of athletes that will be present at St. Therese's Catholic Church to accept your donations for the Philippine disaster victims.

San Diego Pros team up to help Philippine disaster victims at event in Carmel Valley  | Del Mar Times

Donations: Monetary* (checks made out to St. Therese of Carmel); Summer clothing for adults and children (new or gently used); Flip flops; Toiletries – soap, toothpaste/brushes, shampoo; Canned food, Peanut Butter; * $250+ donations are tax deductible and will receive giveaways.

They'll be up there today and tomorrow, November 22 and 23, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

View Larger Map

Hoffman is there right now (at least he was 2 hours ago) braving the torrential drizzle to encourage you to drop by and drop off some donations.  Here's a tweet from Jamie Moyer's wife Kristen.

@THoffman51@jmo50Moyer Vince Coleman &Bob Boone still collecting for Philippine relief Bring canned foods @STOC_SDpic.twitter.com/3lz1eRoHpj

— karen moyer (@kmo50Moyer) November 22, 2013

Trevor has retweeted a list of items they need and further information:

RT @kmo50Moyer: Live in San Diego area!? Help us help others! Fri & Sat #PhilippinesTyphoon#help#donatepic.twitter.com/U25ZVyvPO1

— Trevor Hoffman (@THoffman51) November 22, 2013

Because you could use some extra reading material to get through the offseason.

No one out there wants to completely relive the 2013 season It is not one that even comes close to being a memorable one in Padres lore. However, it certainly had its share of moments and deserves it's due. Over at the GLBWiki, I have been trying to keep track of such moments in season recaps. Today I finished the 2013 one. I haven't actually finished one since 2010 (where I actually had help from others) as I usually give up after a while. Nevertheless with this one complete, I wanted to share it with anyone who wanted to give it a read.

2013 San Diego Padres Season

Let me know if I missed any story lines that you thought were important in 2013. While you are there, feel free to check out the 2010 San Diego Padres Season and relive that more memorable year.

For those not familiar with the GLBWiki it is a place where inside jokes, memes, Gaslamp Ball history, some Padres history and other Padres related material is stored. For some it is a fun playground to browse or help populate.

A look at the newest member of the San Diego Padres, Josh Johnson

On Wednesday, it was reported that Josh Johnson reached a one-year, $8 million deal with the San Diego Padres. If he fails to start more than seven games, the Padres will have a $4 million dollar team option that they can either accept or decline. Johnson can earn an additional $1.25 million if he makes 26 starts or more during the season. If, and at this point it's a fairly big if, Josh Johnson can stay healthy.

However way you look at it, 2013 was essentially a lost season for Johnson. He only made 16 starts, and for the most part he was not very good. His 4.62 FIP was a career worst, but his strikeout and walk rates actually lined up with his career averages. The biggest issue, by far, was the amount of home runs that Johnson gave up. Career wise, Johnson has a home run/flyball rate of just over 8%. In 2013 that number skyrocketed all the way up 18.5%, a number that was easily a career worst.

In terms of pitch outcomes, there wasn't a lot that changed. Johnson still did an above average job at getting swing and messes with the majority of his pitches. The following chart is from Brooks Baseball.

Looking at this numbers, there are actually a few positives. Johnson was getting more swing and misses on his curveball than a year ago, as well as with his fastball. There's no need to be concerned about the slider, it didn't even have a one percent change. And he saw his changeup get back to normal levels, after experiencing a dip in 2012. All in all, Johnson really had no problem missing bats.

Another good sign is the fact that Johnson didn't seem to face any velocity problems in 2013. Throughout his career, Johnson's fastball sits around 93 MPH, and in 2013 that was no different. Johnson dealt with tricep and forearm issues throughout the season, so that's definitely a positive.

Interview with Josh Byrnes

Gaslamp Ball posted some details from a recent interview with Padres' GM Josh Byrnes where he discussed the team's pursuit of Josh Johnson and more.

Petco is about as perfect of a fit as there is for Johnson. According to Stat Corner, the park factors for home runs for left-handed hitters, and right handed hitters are 94 and 87 respectively. If Johnson is able to reduce his home run/flyball rate, and maintain his high strikeouts and low walks, it wouldn't be outrageous to expect a FIP in the 3.5-3.6 range. Johnson is talented enough to do even better, but health will play a key role.

The Padres are only paying Johnson $8 milllion, so it isn't a huge risk in the end. I think the Padres would be ecstatic if they could get three WAR out of Johnson, with four being a legitimate possibility. The Padres haven't had a solid number one pitcher since Latos got dealt (Feel free to change my mind. Stults had a solid season last season for sure), and Johnson can finally give them some stability at the top of the rotation. He's also someone that could get dealt in July. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs, Stat Corner and Brooks Baseball.

Alex Kienholz is an Editor at Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @Alex_Kienholz .

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You can never have too much pitching. Getting that pitching is easier said than done.

In my first two posts on the subject of past Yankees' free agency transactions, I looked at deals with Bernie Williams and Reggie Jackson. Two high-priced moves for high profile stars that worked out well for everyone involved. But it wouldn't be fair if we didn't also take a look back at some of the dud contracts the Yankees have handed out over the years. Two such contracts were signed in the same offseason for two pitchers coming off career years: Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright. As you are all keenly aware, it did not work out so well for the Yankees.

The impetus behind the Yankees' attempts to bolster their rotation was their 2004 collapse against the rival Red Sox. A sound thumping in Game Seven and a middling starter ERA of 4.82 (18th in MLB) during the regular season was enough to convince the front office that an overhaul of the staff was needed. They made Wright their first target, who was coming off of a 4.3 fWAR, 3.28 ERA campaign with the Atlanta Braves. There were complications with Wright's passing a physical, but eventually the Yankees inked Wright to a three year/$21 million deal. I can remember it seemed odd at the time that the Yankees would be so interested in a pitcher who had been terrible from 1999-2003, but they were clearly hoping he was not simply a product of Leo Mazzone's magic.

Pavano was the premier pitcher of the free agent class that year. Unlike Wright, Pavano had strung together two consecutive good campaigns, taking a huge step forward in 2004 with an 18-win, 3.00 ERA, 4.1 fWAR effort. Possibly also impressed by his performance against him in the 2003 World Series the Yankees outbid several other teams and got Pavano to sign a four year/$39.6 million deal. Throw in a trade for the dominant Randy Johnson in January, with Mike Mussina and Kevin Brown as holdovers, and the Yankees thought they had an unstoppable starting staff loaded with accomplished veterans.

Obviously that last notion was contingent on Pavano and Wright being able to actually pitch, and pitch well. Wright was bombed in the 63 innings he managed to pitch in his injury-marred '05 season, barely managing a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio and sporting an ERA over 6.00. He actually managed to have the only respectable season between the two in 2006, tossing 140 innings while accumulating 2.6 fWAR. But his terrible start (2.2 IP, 4 R, 2 HR) in the clinching loss of the ALDS against Detroit sealed his fate and he was dealt to the Orioles after the season for Chris Britton.

As much of a cash dump Wright was, it is the Pavano deal that will echo in the minds of Yankees fans forever. Four seasons: 145.2 IP, 26 games started. A grand total of 1 fWAR. He rarely ever pitched and wasn't good when he did. Mysterious car accidents, Tommy John surgery, elbow strains, buttocks injuries. You name it and it happened with Carl Pavano. Whether he was simply a victim of bad luck or partly responsible for his myriad of misfortunes, Pavano was nary a factor over the life of his contract for his employers. It was one of the worst signings the Yankees have ever made.

The Yankees just so happen to find themselves with a few open spots in their rotation for 2014. Could one of those spots be filled with a free agent as disastrous as the gruesome twosome discussed above? Of course they could! But here's hoping history does not repeat itself.

More from Pinstripe Alley:

• Joe Nathan Free Agency: Yankees make him a secondary priority
• Yankees add six to the 40-man roster
• Yankees acquire infielder Dean Anna from Padres
• Brian McCann Free Agency: Expected to start visiting teams
• Yankees Top Moments: (#3) Ruth's called shot vs. (#6) Martin wins '53 World Series