Former Padres outfielder Freddy Guzman turns 33 today, a distinction he shares with recent backstop John Baker. Guzman signed with the Padres as a 19-year-old amateur free agent in 2000, and made his major league debut with the club in 2004. The slight speedster appeared in a career-high 20 games that season and has been on the move ever since. He has bounced around the past ten seasons, resurfacing for a brief taste of the majors every few years.
Guzman is essentially a one-tool player, but what a tool it is. In 997 minor league games, Guzman has stolen 587 bases while being caught only 105 times. He led all of organized baseball with 90 steals in 2003 and hasn't slowed much in the decade that followed. Guzman swiped 43 bags with Ciudad del Carmen last year in his third Mexican League season, earning himself a spot on Tampa Bay's 40-man roster. He made one appearance with the Rays, in which he was inserted as a pinch-runner, stole a base, and scored a run.
Between Guzman's time with the 'res and the Rays, he played for seven other organizations in affiliated ball as well as three more in his aforementioned time in Mexico. He made it up for nine games in 2006 and eight more in 2007 with the Rangers, and then again for 10 games with the 2009 Yankees. In the small sample size of 102 plate-appearances in 48 games during five seasons spread over ten years, Guzman is a .211/ .255/ .274 hitter with 10 steals.
Currently a free agent yet again, Guzman is pictured here on his signed 2004 Donruss Elite rookie card #171, numbered 624 of 750. Unlike John Baker, who has no cards as a member of the Padres, Guzman appears on cardboard exclusively as a Friar. This is one of many cards that were released of him following his 90-steal season that catapulted him into prospect status; by the time he showed up in Texas and New York that ship had sailed and his handful of unsuccessful games weren't enough to earn him inclusion in even the largest sets. I don't think his sole game last year will be enough to get him into any packs of 2014 cards, but maybe he'll get one in 2018 after his four-game comeback with the Royals in 2017.
It seems the AAA El Paso Chihuahuas will have another carryover from their days as the Tucson Padres. As reported by SB Nation's own Chris Cotillo, outfielder Travis Buck has inked another minor league deal with the Padres organization.
Source: #Padres re-sign Travis Buck to minor league deal.
Buck batted .256/ .296/ .464 in 135 plate-appearances over just 35 games with Tucson last season, his first year since 2006 with no time spent in the majors. His major league batting line is .243/ .316/ .399 in 910 plate-appearances spread over parts of six seasons with Oakland, Cleveland, and Houston. If we see him in San Diego at any point this year... oh, man, I don't even want to think about the chain of events that would lead to that. Stay healthy, major leaguers.
The Padres' front office seems to focus on the extremes when looking at ground ball distribution. How is that affecting performance?
From 2011-2013, the Padres essentially spun their wheels in the mud. Their won-loss record hasn't significantly improved, and they don't seem any closer to playoff contention. I have been doing research on starting pitcher batted ball profiles, so I decided to dig into the Padres' data after I noticed that the Padres ranked 4th in GB% from 2011-2013. Ground balls are supposed to be good for pitchers, but if that is the case then why have the Padres' starters ranked 27th in ERA-, 29th in FIP-, and 24th in xFIP- over the same period? Though the Padres have not ranked highly in K% and BB% during the past 3 years overall, they aren't far from the middle. There's mystery here.
But looking just at their overall GB% from 2011-2013 doesn't tell the whole story. In those years, the Padres have had a non-normal distribution of ground ball rates. The Padres tend to focus on either high GB% pitchers (Clayton Richard, Jason Marquis) or low-ish GB% pitchers (Eric Stults, Aaron Harang) and generally ignore those in the middle. Consequently, their GB% distribution takes the shape of a valley rather than a bell curve.
Given that the Padres have a pitching-favorable home park (moving the fences in 2013 has dampened the favorable effect for pitchers) and tight budget constraints, they are fairly similar to the Athletics. It makes sense for them to maximize value out of their small budget and ballpark by focusing on predictable pitching tendencies, as the Athletics are known to do. However, the results have not followed the strategy like they have in Oakland. Trades and injuries explain a part of this phenomenon. However, their defense is another important aspect, especially when you think about runs allowed based stats such as ERA-.
In 2011, the Padres staff actually ranked near the middle of the pack despite a starting pitching payroll similar to what the Padres are paying only Josh Johnson (who has been a high-GB% pitcher in the past) in 2014. That year, Cameron Maybin spent the summer chasing down batted balls in CF and did so quite skillfully. Their team defense ranked well with 46 defensive runs saved (ranked 3rd) and a 22 UZR (ranked 8th). However, their team defense declined in 2012 from its 2011 levels; Cameron Maybin wasn't rated quite as highly in 2012, and Carlos Quentin's presence hurt. Correlation is not causation, but I imagine the decline in team defense was at least partly responsible for the poor starting pitching performance in 2012. Their defense rebounded a bit in 2013, but defense mattered little when Jason Marquis, Clayton Richard, and Burch Smith were handing out home runs like Halloween candy on the fly balls they did allow.
Despite relatively poor team defense in the past, the 2014 squad has potential. Yonder Alonso, Jedd Gyorko, and Chase Headley seem to be solid defenders, while Chris Denorfia did his best Cameron Maybin impression in 2013. One missing piece in this evaluation is infield shifting data, which could reveal how much, if at all, the Padres are taking advantage of their high GB% pitchers. The Padres are in a unique position to blend the ground ball-centric strategy of the Pirates and the fly ball-centric strategy of the Athletics into a hybrid run prevention strategy based on their strange collection of pitchers who live at the ends of the batted ball distribution. Running a specialized defense platooning strategy that supports each particular pitcher could help get the Padres closer to the postseason.
So, yeah. Seems like the days of The Aristocrat in San Diego could be coming to an end very soon. "A number of teams"? That must be serious business then. The Yankees were even in the mix last week. But, let's be honest. The job of infielder/utility man is a tough one to hold on to. Jesus Guzman fit that role and was sent to Houston for another possible utility man in Ryan Jackson. With Logan Forsythe in the same shoes, the same outcome is obviously possible. I mean, the Padres have Alexi "Swiss Army Knife" Amarista available at any position these days. This may be the case of too many cooks in the kitchen and other sayings that fit this situation.
Last week, Forsythe turned 27 and will enter his first year of arbitration after the 2014 season. In 2013, Logan had 6 home runs, but not without some struggles. Logan finished the season batting .214 over his 220 at-bats. Of all Padres last year with at least 150 at-bats, only Mark Kotsay had a lower batting average.
Where Forsythe will be dealt and for whom is still to be seen. Forsythe could be dealt for prospects or a bullpen arm. No matter the deal, by all indications, the deal is close.
In baseball, well-rounded five-tool player production is highly coveted. Which players have produced baseball's most statistically well-rounded seasons?
Trivia time: What do Eddie Eagan, Jacob Tullin Thams, Christa Luding, and Clara Hughes have in common? They all were medalists in both the Summer and Winter Olympics in different sports. Eagan received golds in boxing and bobsled, Thams medaled in sailing and ski jumping, Luding won five medals (two golds) in cycling and speed skating, and Hughes won six medals, also in cycling and speed skating.
Why bring this up? Well, because I've always had great respect for and great interest in polymaths. I always am interested in the well-rounded individuals, including athletes who distinguish themselves on the playing field and in academia. Because of that, following athletes such as Myron Rolle (2008 Rhodes Scholar) and Craig Breslow (BA in Molecular Biophysics and Biochemistry from Yale, considered one of the smartest professional athletes) has been an extra pursuit of mine.
Of course, we have our own version of the baseball polymath: the "Five Tool Player." The player who can hit for average, hit for power, run the bases, throw, and field at plus levels. In terms of player value, these traits can be seen in the components of WAR, specifically fWAR in this case. fWAR has a batting component (wRAA), a base running component (UBR plus wSB), and a fielding component (UZR), which we could look at to determine well-roundedness.
What started me on this kick? Well, it actually goes back to all the Hall of Fame debates. I was thinking about Larry Walker's case for induction, and stumbled across the following fun fact. When looking at fWAR for outfielders with 3,000+ PAs since the creation of the AL in 1901, there are 5 players who rank in the top 10% of wRAA, BsR, and UZR: Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Ricky Henderson, Willie Mays, and Larry Walker. I personally hadn't realized that Walker had such a well-rounded resume, and it got me thinking what the most well-rounded seasons in MLB history are.
So, we have the basic premise. The stats we'll look at are the three components of fWAR defined above. Now, we'll look at the ranks of players in each of the three statistics for that season, where the player pool is all players who had at least 200 PAs. In each category, a player earns a certain number of points for a finish in that category. For example, in 2013, there were 356 players who received at least 200 PAs. Miguel Cabrera led all players in the wRAA category. Therefore, he'll get 356 points. Mike Trout, who came in second, gets 355. Alcides Escobar, who came in last, gets 1 point. Then, to keep all seasons on the same scale, we divide by the number of players who qualified that year, so (roughly), the range of scores for each component in each season is from [0,1].
In addition to putting all seasons on the same scale, it makes higher finishes in seasons with more players more impressive. To me, finishing second in a season with 356 qualifying players (A score of 0.9972) is more impressive than finishing second in a season with only 78 players (0.9872). The difference isn't large, but it still makes a slight difference.
This procedure is repeated for BsR and UZR, and finally the scores for the three categories are averaged, created a Well-Rounded Index for each player-season. So what seasons land in the top 10 of the most well-rounded?
Season
Name
OffRank
BsRRank
DefRank
WR Index
1990
Barry Bonds
0.9933
0.9933
0.9933
0.9933
1910
Eddie Collins
0.9748
1
1
0.9916
1962
Willie Mays
0.9907
0.9813
0.9953
0.9891
2012
Mike Trout
0.9971
1
0.9625
0.9866
1909
Eddie Collins
0.9940
0.9940
0.9702
0.9861
1990
Rickey Henderson
1
1
0.9565
0.9855
1951
Jackie Robinson
0.9820
0.9760
0.9940
0.9840
1958
Willie Mays
0.9888
1
0.9607
0.9831
1905
Honus Wagner
0.9936
0.9809
0.9745
0.9830
1938
Arky Vaughan
0.9753
0.9753
0.9938
0.9815
So we've recently seen an all-around season from the ages in Mike Trout's 2012 rookie campaign. Also on the list are 6 Hall of Fame players (making up 8 seasons), and an early vintage Bonds. Without a doubt, these are some of the greatest players ever performing at their peak.
Now we expect every major league player to excel in at least one category. However, even the incredible athletes that populate the MLB have their down seasons.
Finally, it's interesting to see those players who had the highest average Well-Rounded Index over their whole career. To look at this, we limited the field to players who had at least 10 seasons with 200 PAs.
Again, we have 7 Hall of Famers, two active players with over 50 fWAR, and Barry Bonds. Definitely a solid list to be a member of. Now, before you ask, Mike Trout's two seasons lead to an average index value of 0.9504. So he could be well on the way to breaking all the well-roundedness records (If any such ones existed).
The versatile 27-year old is drawing interest from "a number of teams".
While Chase Headley has been the subject of constant trade rumors over the past couple of years, another Padres infielder could be on the move soon. According to a team source, "a number of teams" have asked about infielder Logan Forsythe in recent trade talks.
As Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com noted last week, the Yankees have inquired about trying to acquire one of the Padres' infielders, with Forsythe serving as a realistic option for them. The source cautioned that it "would be a surprise" if Forsythe ended up in the Bronx, however.
Forsythe, 27, is likely viewed by some teams as a buy-low candidate after he hit .214 with 6 HR and 19 RBI in 75 games with San Diego last season. He is primarily a second baseman, but saw time at five different positions in 2013-- second base, shortstop, third base, left field, and right field.
The Padres have been rumored to be looking to add another reliever in addition to Joaquin Benoit, but that is considered doubtful unless it's "something small", according to the source. They could potentially look to flip Forsythe for relief depth, and likely would be able to get some value due to his strong trade market.
This dream was 100% real and 100% awesome. Everything I detail is something I actually dreamed last night and I woke up pretty happy to have dreamed it. Enjoy.
The dream started out with Jedd Gyorko and I standing in line outside of an arena. I look at the tickets and it says Royal Rumble. I'm happy to be there. Jedd's smiling. Everyone's happy. We get inside and Jedd says to me "Hope these seats are good. You go and check 'em out. I have to go talk to a friend real quick."
I get to the seats and they're awesome. 10-11 rows back in the aisle ringside. Ring announcer says "Now it's time for the Royal Rumble match!" I'm looking around because Jedd's going to miss it and the music for the 1st wrestler hits and I don't know the song. I'm looking at the ramp to see who's coming out and I see a Padres jersey. It's Jedd. Jedd is in the Royal Rumble. Nobody's cheering because they have no clue who he is. I'm yelling Jedd's name and people are looking at me and I'm going "That's Jedd Gyorko!" He gets in the ring, starts stretching and the music hits for the 2nd wrestler.
WHEN IT COMES CRASHING DOWN AND IT HURTS INSIDE!!!
YOU GOTTA TAKE A STAND IT DON'T HELP TO HIDE!!
The crowd is going crazy. Everyone's cheering and IT'S HULK HOGAN! HOGAN IS IN THE RUMBLE! He's walking down the ramp and everyone's singing along.
I AM A REAL AMERICAN! FIGHT FOR THE RIGHTS OF EVERY MAN!.
He gets in the ring and Jedd and Hulk are having a stare off. Bell rings. Match begins.
Hogan destroyed Jedd. Jedd threw a punch. Hogan stopped it and started Hulking up. He did the point, everyone yelled "You!" He grabbed Jedd and whipped him towards the ropes. He came back to meet Hogan's boot and Hogan did the leg drop on him. He then picked up Jedd by the back of his jersey and did the "Everybody make some noise" thing he does with his hand on his ear to all four sides of the ring. He picked the side that made the most noise and threw Jedd over the top rope.
Hogan is posing in the ring when Jedd shows up at our seats with a neck brace on. I go "Are you okay?!?" He says "Yeah, man. Just living the dream." He has trouble sitting down when he says "I think you're in the match later. Get ready." Then that's all I remember. Dream over.
Kinda bummed that my dream ended before I got to go in the ring. But, that's okay. I saw what Hogan did to Jedd. Not even my dream wanted me to have any part of that.
You may remember back in 2011, Dex and I thought we'd come up with a series of new traditions for Padres fans. After some inspiration from my recent road trip to Chicago and subsequent stop at Lincoln's tomb, we decided the first new tradition would be to rub Tony Gwynn's statue's knee at every game. The idea was met with great enthusiasm but the actual task of reaching Gwynn's knee proved to be quite difficult for vertically challenged fans. I tried it at a game soon after the blog was posted and found that while I could touch his knee, the degree of difficulty would insure that the tradition would never catch on.
That brings us to September 2012. Unfortunately I was out of town on Jerry Coleman Day when the Padres officially unveiled and dedicated Coleman's new statue. My first opportunity to see it in person was at a weeknight game with Jon. At the time SB Nation wanted bloggers to shoot more video and so I brought my camera along and with nothing to film, I thought we'd recycle our earlier statue idea and have Jon shake Jerry's hand while I narrated. After all, it is always lucky to touch a hero statue, maybe it'd bring the Padres a win. Unfortunately my narration was embarrassingly awkward and we shelved the idea.
Here's an animated gif made from the 2012 video of Jon showing how a fan might choose to shake Jerry's hand at each game.
Earlier this month, when fans learned that Jerry Coleman passed away, I went to the ballpark with others to mourn. Fans left flowers at Coleman's feet, wept resting their head upon his chest, hugged his likeness and even shook his hand. It was all very touching. It didn't go unnoticed by fellow Padres broadcaster Andy Masur.
It hit me hard after watching a gentleman walk up to the broad bronze likeness, and shake its hand as if to say, "thank you, and it's been a pleasure knowing you". I mentioned to someone at that moment, "this is how you know you've had an impact on people's lives".
With that said, how great would it be if shaking Jerry Coleman's statue's hand became a new tradition at Petco Park? Somewhere down the line an out-of-town guest or new fan might look upon the statue and ask a seasoned Padres fan why this bronze statue's hand has been burnished and appears to shine like gold. They'd learn that Jerry Coleman was so beloved by fans that they regularly shake his hand to pay their respects for his service to our country, our city and our team.
As we reported earlier in the week, the Padres had received calls from "a number of teams" who were interested in acquiring the versatile Forsythe. Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com noted that the Yankees were a realistic destination for him before the Rays became aggressive in recent days.
Forsythe, 27, hit .214 with 6 HR and 19 RBI In 75 games with the Padres in 2013, his third major league season. He appeared at five positions (third base, shortstop, second base, left field, and right field) for the Padres last year and will likely serve as a super-utility player for Tampa next year. He is a lifetime .241 hitter with 12 HR and 57 RBI in 228 career games.
Boxberger, 25, has appeared in 42 major league games out of the Padres' bullpen over the last two years, notching a 2.72 ERA in that span. The former first round pick was one of the four players acquired by the Padres from Cincinnati in the Mat Latos trade, but his ceiling as a prospect has seemed to decline since then. Because of his high strikeout totals (12.5 K/9 in four major league seasons, 10.3 K/9 in the majors), Boxberger could eventually become a late-inning reliever, or even a closer.
Andriese, 24, was ranked by MLB.com as the Padres' 19th best prospect following the season in which he compiled an 11-7 record and 3.27 ERA in 27 appearances (25 starts) between Double-A San Antonio and Triple-A Tucson. He profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter due to his strong command, but may need to work on his delivery.
Lollis, 23, was 3-8 with a 4.62 ERA across three levels of the Padres' system in 2013, with struggles coming at both Double-A and Triple-A. The reliever appeared in 32 games for Double-A San Antonio, registering a 6.28 ERA in 38.2 innings of work. The former top prospect has struggled in recent years after being selected in the 15th round of the 2009 draft.
Tissenbaum, 22, hit .277 with 2 HR and 49 RBI for Single-A Fort Wayne last season after being drafted by the Padres in the eleventh round of the 2012 draft. The Canadian is a middle infielder who is listed as both a second baseman and shortstop.
Torres, 26, seems to be a good for the Padres, who have been pursuing left-handed relief help in recent weeks. In 58 relief innings with the Rays in 2013, he was 4-2 with a 1.71 ERA, and seems set to join a Padres bullpen that already added Joaquin Benoit earlier in the offseason. According to Padres' GM Josh Byrnes (via Corey Brock of MLB.com), Torres will work as a reliever in 2014, but the organization is open-minded to using him as a starter in the future.
Hahn, 24, was the Rays' sixth round pick in the 2010 draft, and was 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 20 starts with High-A Charlotte. He was ranked by MLB.com as Tampa's 18th best prospect after the season, and did not crack Baseball America's top 10 list this winter. According to a National League scout, Hahn "could be an impact arm out of the Padres' bullpen sooner rather than later. His profile as a starter is fringy but his fastball is legit."
MLB Daily Dish first reported that Forsythe was headed to the Rays and Torres was likely on his way to Tampa. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times confirmed Torres' involvement (via Twitter), and ESPN's Keith Law reported that Hahn, Andriese, Lollis and Boxberger were changing hands (AllTwitterlinks). Topkin then reported that a fifth player could be headed to Tampa as well (via Twitter), which was confirmed when the Padres announced the deal.
With Alex Torres rumored to be part of the four-player trade.
An unexpected late night trade seems to be in the works, with news that the Rays have acquired Logan Forsythe from the Padres for Alex Torres in a four-player deal:
As others have said, Forsythe deal to #Rays not finalized. Agreed upon.
The trade is likely to be announced on Friday, according to league sources with knowledge of the situation.
As we reported yesterday, the Padres had received calls from "a number of teams" who were interested in acquiring the versatile Forsythe. Jon Morosi of FOXSports.comnoted that the Yankees were a realistic destination for him before the Rays became aggressive in recent days.
In 75 games in 2013, Forsythe hit .214 with 6 HR and 19 RBI in his third major league season. . The 27-year old appeared at five positions-third base, shortstop, second base, left field, and right field-for the Padres last year and will likely serve as a super-utility player for Tampa next year. He is a lifetime .241 hitter with 12 HR and 57 RBI in 228 career games.
Torres, seems likely to be headed to the Padres, who have been pursuing left-handed relief help in recent weeks. The 26-year old was 4-2 with a 1.71 ERA in 58 innings with the Rays last season, and will join a Padres bullpen that already added Joaquin Benoit earlier in the offseason.
We'll keep you updated as more details are revealed...
10:47
Source: If Rays-Padres deal goes down as expected, it will involve at least five players.
The Padres utilityman was used as trade bait to acquire some other assets to help in 2014 and beyond.
The Padres have no obvious motivation to trade Logan Forsythe other than to acquire something they like in return. Forsythe was due to make the major league minimum, so he was as inexpensive as a Major League player can get. He is a somewhat versatile right handed bench bat that could have backed up both Chase Headley at 3B and Jedd Gyorko at 2B while playing corner OF or SS in a pinch. His hitting at the Major League level never developed into the asset it looked like it might based on his ability to get on base and hit with modest pop in the minors, but nevertheless was somewhat useful at the plate (for a backup infielder). All these reasons combine to make him someone the Padres could use in 2014, but also someone that could return something useful in trade.
The Rays decided that they liked the potential of Forsythe and were willing to give up something to get him. There are rumors that in total the deal will include at least 4 players (as reported by MLBDailyDish), however the one key something, well someone, mentioned coming over to the Padres is pitcher Alex Torres.Torres, according to SBNation's minorleagueball.com was the Rays' #3 prospect in 2012, before becoming just an honorable mention in 2013. He was profiled on the site as the Prospect of the Day twice. Once back in 2011, the season where he made his Major League debut. and then again last May just before his return to the bigs after a year spent in the minors.
If I were to summarize those reports and add a bit of research, I would say he is a small (5'10") lefty with deceptive stuff who gets a lot of strikeouts, but can be prone to wildness. That wildness kept him in AAA for a couple of seasons, but he finally seemed to break through in 2013. Most of his minor league career has consisted of being a starting pitcher, but all 43 of his Major League outings were in relief. The Padres have talked about wanting to add left handed relief pitching this offseason and this is a good addition in that regard. Plus, his experience as a starter would allow Bud Black to extend Torres beyond just situation pitching. A very versatile acquisition for the pen. In addition to that, Torres has less than a full season of big league service time and therefore is under team control through 2019.
Making this deal does decrease the Padres' infield depth. It also all but assures Alexi Amarista's spot on the major league roster in 2014. At 3B and SS, the Padres have two switch hitters that should play everyday when healthy. At second base, Jedd Gyorko looks to be an everyday sort of play as well. He bats right handed and makes for a more natural platoon with Amarista if needed. The team also can rely on Ryan Jackson to supply some glovework at SS and 3B. There is no guarantee he makes the team out of camp, but he is now nearly guaranteed to make some appearances with the club at some point in the season. If multiple injuries to any combination of SS, 2B and 3B were to crop up though, the team's 40 man roster would be quite stretched and someone would now have to be added. That is not a huge concern, but it is a new risk that the team is taking on with this deal. Or at least seems to be until we know more details about the other players involved.
The trade is expected to be officially announced on Friday, but with details leaked already we should know more before then. MLBDailyDish's Chris Cotillo will be on the case.
The name Alex Torres sounded vaguely familiar when I saw that he'd be headed to San Diego in the Logan Forsythe trade, but I didn't really know anything about him because I don't pay attention to the Arena League. When I looked up his numbers I realized why I'd heard of him: He was brilliant last season.
A converted starter, the left-handed Torres was nearly untouchable out of the bullpen for the Rays in 2013. The rookie, whose only prior major league experience was four games in 2011, posted a ridiculous 1.71 ERA with a WHIP of just 0.897 (almost safe to drive!) while striking out 62 batters in 58 innings over 39 games.
While his results were slow-clap-worthy, what caught my eye was that ratio of innings to games. This is no LOOGY we're dealing with here. A look at his game logs revealed that in his 39 games, Torres pitched less than an inning only five times. Eleven of his appearances lasted two full innings or longer, with a high of four innings which he reached twice. It's clear that anyone getting those sorts of assignments wasn't just keeping his numbers pretty by ganging up on lefties and being sheltered from right-handers.
Torres's platoon splits bear this out, as righties hit .149/ .246/ .223 against him in 138 plate-appearances, and lefties put up a slash line of .175/ .241/ .225 in 88 trips to the plate. Left-handers were more prone to strike out, while right-handed hitters were a bit more apt to take a walk. Lest you jump to attribute this to small sample size, it's a pattern that he exhibited throughout his minor league career. Last summer, as Torres was presumably taking the American League by storm, David Wiers of Fangraphs explained Torres's seeming indifference to handedness thusly:
His 0.39 ERA is the best in baseball (minimum 20 innings pitched) and has been dominate [sic] against both left and right-handed batters. Helping to split the difference in his platoon numbers is the fact that rather than being a traditional fastball/slider reliever, Torres’ best secondary pitch is his changeup. When he isn’t punching hitters out he is getting them to put the ball on the ground at a 56.8% rate.
While Torres's ERA ended up more human at year's end, Wiers's point stands. Though Padres fans would be wise not to expect Torres to duplicate last year's numbers because, come on - BABIP! Regression! - he's unlikely to surrender an edge favoring right-handed batters and that makes Bud Black's life a lot easier. Opposing managers can call right-handed batters up to the plate until their hearts are content without that dictating Black's next move.
Forsythe had been receiving interest from several teams recently, but it was Tampa Bay who offered what the Padres wanted. The 27-year-old's greatest asset is the fact that he can competently play all around the infield along with a little corner outfield. He certainly didn't get traded for his bat: Forsythe hit .214/.281/.332 over 75 games in 2013 and has a career 659 OPS.
There is room for improvement, however. Over his minor league career, Forsythe was an on-base machine with a .416 OBP. Furthermore, Forsythe has been much better against left-handers over his career with a 793 OPS compared to just a 594 OPS against righties. Considering he likely was not acquired to be a starter, it's possible nearly all of Forsythe's playing time could come against southpaws
The Rays love to have players that provide roster flexibility, and Forsythe brings just that. He is also still a pre-arbitration player and is under team control four more seasons. He will likely have to compete with players like Sean Rodriguez and Jayson Nix for a roster spot, but injuries to Hak-Ju Lee and Tim Beckham have weakened the Rays' middle infield.The Padres have a number of other players who can fill the utility role, tops among them Alexi Amarista. That made Forsythe expendable.
The Padres may have done very well for themselves in the return for Forsythe. Torres, 26, is coming off a wonderful season out of the Rays' bullpen. He tossed 58 innings over 39 games and posted a 1.71 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with 62 strikeouts. He initially came up as a starter but control issues and a loaded Tampa Bay rotation forced a move to the pen. It's possible that the Padres could try to stretch him out again, otherwise he has the look of a top reliever.
There have been no reports on who the additional prospects in the deal will be. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reports a total of five players are involved in the deal.
Are the Rays trying to acquire another Sean Rodriguez?
Reserving judgement until all the details in a trade are known is important, but it appears the Rays are shipping out Alex Torres -- a formal top prospect who fell out of grace as a starter in 2012 and re-emerged last season as a high leverage arm in the bullpen -- for Logan Forsythe.
Forsythe was a 2008 supplemental round draft pick that has three years of service in the majors. He will begin his first of three arbitration years in 2015, so he would only require the league minimum next season.
So who is he?
A 6'1" and 195 lbs bench player, he's right handed, he can play each position of the infield and some corner outfield, he doesn't have show-stopping speed but his defense is highly regarded, a steady approach to fastballs and patient with breaking balls (though he whiffs on them often), in general pitchers will throw low and away, .287 career in-play batting average that is not consistent year to year, league average walk rate, slightly worse than average strike out rate, projected wRC+ in the 90's.
Differences? Sean is one inch shorter, five pounds heavier, and has two years less of control.
Heck, they even have the same damn swing.
There is one other large difference, however, and that is injuries. So much so, that I would suspect this trade will hinge on a physical by the Rays staff.
Forsythe struggled last season through plantaar fascitis in his right foot, had a sore right knee he played through in 2012, and had left foot surgery shortly before that. In the minors, he also had a surgery to repair his meniscus.
Logan's injuries did not make for a stellar 2013, especially in comparison to Rodriguez:
2013
wOBA vLHP
wRC+ vLHP
wOBA vRHP
wRC+ vRHP
SB
BB%
K%
Logan Forsythe
.283
81
.266
69
6
7.8%
22.2%
Sean Rodriguez
.328
111
.253
59
1
7.7%
26.6%
... but taking Forsythe's three year career and comparing to Rodriguez's six years of intermittent play, we have a more charming comp:
Career
wOBA vLHP
wRC+ vLHP
wOBA vRHP
wRC+ vRHP
SB
BB%
K%
Logan Forsythe
.347
124
.265
69
17
7.7%
18.9%
Sean Rodriguez
.334
113
.268
67
33
7.5%
23.8%
Forsythe's an injury risk, but that might have also masked some great performance. You could fall on the sunny side with this caveat, but the injuries cast a big shadow on this trade. He doesn't have the speed we thought the Rays might be coveting for the 25th man position, but reincarnating Rodriguez on the roster now is not a poor idea when the Rays can deal from a position of depth (left handed relief pitching).
It's clear the Rays are not done yet with their roster. The Rays still have a jam at catcher, with third catcher Jose Lobaton still hanging around.
The departure of Torres would make room for Pedro Figueroa on the roster (out of options), but the bench still needs to clear room. Sean Rodriguez is a projected to remain on the Rays bench, though with one option remaining, while Jose Molina, Jose Lobaton, and Brandon Guyer cannot be sent to the minors.
With the duplication of Rodriguez and Forsythe on the roster, maybe the Marlins can finally nab their man in Rodriguez through a separate trade. In the mean time, we have more news to sift through.
The Rays will be adding prospects, will need to drop Lobaton into someone else's roster, and now might be trading Rodriguez. Reserve judgement until the end, just because news about Forsythe broke first doesn't mean it was the first in a series of moves the front office might be planning.
I saw this last night, but then it kind of fell through the cracks when details about the trade that sent Logan Forsythe, Brad Boxberger, and a handful of minor leaguers to St. Petersburg started dribbling out one by one and buried it
Some new #Padres uniform numbers: Benoit No. 56, Smith No. 12, Johnson No. 55. Thayer No. 33 from 55. ~ Team store closes at 5.
I've always been a nerd about uniforms and uniform numbers in specific, so this is the kind of stuff that grabs my attention. I knew about the Padres giving Josh Johnson his familiar 55, since it was on the jersey he put on at the official press conference. Before that it had been being worn by Dale Thayer, who now takes over the 33 last worn by Clayton Richard.
Seth Smith being assigned the number 12 that Yasmani Grandal wore the past two seasons is a less straightforward case. Smith wore 15 with Oakland for the past two seasons, and that would have been fair game since Jesus Guzman got traded to Houston, but Smith's ties to 12 go back much farther. Not only did he wear it during his seven-game September debut with the Rockies in 2007, but he wore it even earlier during his days as Eli Manning's backup at Ole Miss. I'm still not sure if Smith traded Grandal anything for the number ala Mitch Williams and John Kruk, but if I had to guess I'd say the team just gave it to him the way they snatched John Baker's 21 that he wore as a tribute to Roberto Clemente away because Jason Marquis wanted it.
The trade turned out to be a bigger deal than originally thought.
The trade was originally reported that Logan Forsythe was being traded to the Tampa Bay Rays. However, this deal was not quite as simple as previous deals this offseason where the Padres cashed in on a player's trade value. By the time the dust had settled it turned out it was a 7 player trade with 5 players going from the Padres in exchange for 2 from the Rays. We covered the Logan Forsythe part of the deal, with regards to why he was traded and how it impacts the 2014 team.
We also covered one of the players the Padres got in return. Left handed, 5'10" fireballer Alex Torres will join the Friars and work out of the 'pen. Josh Byrnes even confirmed the recent acquisition's initial role, but left open the idea that Torres could become a starting pitcher one day. That's good ssince when contacted after the trade, Torres mentioned that he would like to go back to starting. However, hopefully he can be satisfied as a lights out utility reliever since there seems to be a number of guys in the Padres organization with desires (and talent) to be in the starting rotation over the next few years.
In addition to Torres, the Padres acquire another fine pitching prospect from the Rays. The 2nd hurler added in the deal is Jesse Hahn. Hahn was one of the top arms pitching in the Rays' minor leagues. After being drafted in the 6th round in 2010 out of Virginia Tech, Hahn needed Tommy John surgery and would not make his professional debut until 2012. Since then his innings have been limited, but still has been used exclusively as a starting pitcher. This coming season should be the one where the training wheels come off and there are some thoughts that once they do he should move pretty fast up the organization ladder. His stuff is excellent, especially his fastball, and his feel for pitching is advanced. He should start in San Antonio and some think he could be ready for the majors in 2015. His injury history adds plenty of risk to his profile, but his talent provides plenty of reward.
In order to get these two quality arms, the Padres had to give up more than just Logan Forsythe. Four other players will go over to the Rays from the Padres. The one that even most casual fans should have heard of is Brad Boxberger. Boxberger came over to the Padres in the Mat Latos trade and was expected to quickly become a regular in the bullpen. Control issues kept him from being able to stick in the majors, but there are still many will high hopes for him as a late innings reliever. He joins Miles Mikolas, Anthony Bass, Tommy Layne, Colt Hynes and Brad Brach as another guy who had spent time in the Padres' pen over the last 2 years, got shuffled back and forth between Tucson and San Diego and will now be will another organization in 2014.
RHP Matt Andriese was also included in the deal. He is the best prospect the Padres sent to the Rays. He pitched in both AA and AAA last year and was getting close to making a case for a major league debut. His upside however, is nowhere near that of the guys the Padres got in return. He was good enough to get a C+ rating as the 19th best prospect in the Padres system last year according to minorleagueball.com, but was not seen by many as anything more than a potential 4th or 5th starter. As innings eating groundball type pitcher he also did not project well to the bullpen. He is not chopped liver though, so expect to see him working in the backend of the Rays' rotation or making spot starts in the years to come.
The Padres also gave RHP Matt Lollis. Lollis is a big man, somewhere around 6'9 250 lbs. There was always hope that he could harness that size and power to turn into an bat missing power pitcher. However, control issues first moved him from starter to reliever and plagued him to the point where he has not been effective since 2010. At 23 years old he still has time to develop, but a change of scenery was probably needed since the Padres had tried almost everything to get him on track.
The final player going over to the Rays is INF Maxx Tissenbaum. Tissenbaum was drafted in the 11th round back in 2012 out of Stony Brook University. You can read his blog here if you like. As a player the Padres worked him mainly at 2B, but he saw some time at SS along with brief trials at 1B and 3B. He spent last season with the Fort Wayne Tin Caps. He is a patient hitter that draws plenty of walks, but needs more pop in his bat to ever project as a major leaguer.
In the end the Padres gave up 5 players, but got back 2 sexier ones (baseball speaking, to each their own as far as physical attractiveness). While the Padres could have certainly used guys like Forsythe, Boxberger and Andriese, they are not guys that the team was counting on to make major impacts over the next few seasons. In return they got at least one player (Torres) that seems primed to be a major asset in the bullpen in 2014 along with another than has a decent shot to make an impact as a starter as soon as 2015. Both come with major risks, but the Padres are a team in need of more upside if they want to be contenders going forward.
Yesterday was an unexpectedly busy day in the world of the Rays, as they traded LHP Alex Torres and RHP Jesse Hahn to the Padres for utility player Logan Forsythe, RHRP Brad Boxberger, RHSP Matt Andriese, RHRP Matt Lollis and second baseman turned catcher Maxx Tissenbaum.
Danny broke down the trade, providing a rundown of the players that the Rays received from San Diego. His conclusion:
The Rays have a glut of left handed relievers and minor league starters. Acquiring Forsythe was the goal, but along the way they turned Torres and Hahn into right-handed-Torres with more consistency, another starter to replace Hahn, a project arm with high upside, and an infielder that showed much early promise and hasn't left A-ball.
Maxx Tissenbaum tips the scales toward me liking this trade, even if Hahn was much to sacrifice. It should be interesting to see how the Rays treat the presence of S-Rod moving forward.
On Forsythe: "A versatile infielder that provides really competitive at-bats. We feel like various injuries have prevented him from reaching his potential. We see a lot of upside in his skill set on both sides of the ball. We feel like he fits us really well. Plays extremely hard. Glowing reports on his makeup. We feel like his profile fits into our system really well.''
On Boxberger: "Has top-end strikeout ability, swing and miss fastball and changeup, stuff that plays extremely well in the strike zone. He has the potential to be a high-leverage full-inning reliever, that came do equally well against right-handers and left-handers. He's missed a lot of bats. Like most young pitchers, improved command will be a goal and kind of a focal area for us as he joins our organization.''
On Andriese: "A guy who has kind of rocketed though the minor leagues. He's a starting pitching prospect that does two things we value quite a bit which is throw strikes and have the ability to keep the ball on the ground. We really like his ability to manipulate the ball, both fastball and secondary (pitches). He's very good at giving hitters' different looks and mixing and matching in terms of eye levels. ... He's got a chance, he should be a starting pitching for us.''
On Lollis: "He's a 6-9 big right-handed power arm. He's got really intersting ingredients. ... He's someone we feel that with the makeup, the reports and the stuff, there's a real compelling upside story to him so we're anxious to get him into our organization.''
On Tissenbaum: "Excellent bat to ball skills. An infielder who's bounced around a little bit and even picked up some time behind the plate, and a guy that does some things we really value.''
...one Major League executive expects the Rays to reach out to the Dodgers and other teams about Price's availability. "I have no doubt they will revisit that, starting today," the executive tells Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.
Price was on Hot Stove yesterday reacting to Tanaka's deal, discussing where his current mindset is and what he believes his future holds:
- The Lightning and the Rays have teamed up to welcome a youth sports initiative to the Tampa Bay area called the Positive Coaching Alliance. The PCA is a national non-profit organization that seeks "to develop kids by providing all youth and high school athletes with a positive, character-building experience in sports."
Austin Hedges has been headlining prospect top 10s on many of the major prospect sites, but our staff ranked him as the #8 fantasy prospect on his team. What does his profile look like for fantasy owners, and is the difference as significant as that?
We've already begun our encompassing look at the catcher position with the release of our consensus top 30 catchers for the 2014 season. We will not be releasing a top prospect list by position this year, so there is no list of top 20 catching prospects coming, for the simple reason that ranking them for position isn't likely to help a lot of fantasy owners. Instead, as a part of each position, the prospect staff will look at a few prospects at each position who could potentially have an impact during the 2014 season. Our last prospect up this week is Padres' catching prospect Austin Hedges.
The Basics
Bats: Right Throws: Right Height: 6'1" Weight: 190 lbs. On 40-Man Roster: No Protect After: 2015 Season DOB: 8/18/1992 (Age 21 season)
His History
Hedges was a second round draft pick by the Padres back in the 2011 draft, signing for an over-slot bonus of $3 million to keep him from attending UCLA. He debuted that year, appearing in just nine games between the complex and their short-season affiliate. The team moved him to full-season Low-A for the 2012 season, where he hit .279/.334/.451 with 10 home runs in 96 games. Promoted to High-A to start the 2013 season, Hedges appeared in 66 games there before being promoted to AA, where he got into another 20 before the end of the year. He did miss nearly a month last year after being hit by a pitch on the hand. His performance at the plate was solid, although not to the same level as his first year, as he hit .260/.333/.390 with four home runs.
The Scouting Report
Hedges' scouting report starts with his defense, as draft reports on him alluded to the idea that he was already advanced enough out of high school to catch in the majors that season. He is as close as a guarantee to stay at the position long-term as you are ever going to get from a catcher, as his defense remains plus to potentially plus-plus. On the offensive side, Hedges profiles as an average bat for the position, which could translate into a .250-.260 average with double-digit home run totals some years.
What's Keeping Him From Contributing Now?
At the major league level, the Padres have Yasmani Grandal and Nick Hundley ahead of Hedges on the depth chart. While both remain ahead for now, it is likely that when Hedges is ready, he will be brought up and moved toward the full-time starting job. In terms of development, Hedges could use more repetitions at the plate, and AA should give him a good indication of his ability to make adjustments to higher quality pitching.
When Could He Arrive?
Hedges is likely to return to AA to start the 2014 campaign, and hopefully will be able to play the full season this year (his career high in games played is 96 in 2012). I would most likely peg him for a potential late-season call up if he performs well this year, with 2015 a more realistic option for his debut and later that year taking over as the everyday catcher.
What Can He Do When He Gets There?
Brian Creagh noted that if he reaches his ceiling of a .280 batting average with 13-15 home runs, he's probably still outside the top 10 for fantasy purposes at the position. A realistic line in my opinion is a .260 batting average with 10-12 home runs, which would play best in NL-only leagues and as a second catcher in a number of formats. He'll likely end up in the top 20 most years at the position.
Conclusions
Hedges is the cautionary tale to fantasy owners to be mindful of prospect lists from the major sites, as his real-life value is drastically higher than his fantasy value. He will be a useful player for fantasy owners in a number of formats, but shallow leagues is worth skipping over until he is ready for the major league level.
The general consensus around the internet is that the Padres trade with the Rays will indeed benefit the Padres organization.
Logan Forsythe could just never seem to stay healthy enough to have much of an impact with the Padres, so losing him as a utility player won't bother me until he inevitably starts tearing it up in Tampa Bay. I like the rest of the swap for no other reason than new blood in the bullpen.
Here's what the media and bloggers think of the trade:
Padres Acquire Alex Torres from Rays - Friars on Base My initial reaction to this trade was, wow, that’s a lot of people to give up. But, the more I look at it, the more I think that the Padres really just got rid of some players from the El Paso Chihuahuas roster for a much needed left-handed reliever.
Padres fortify the bullpen in 7 player trade with Rays. | Bob Scanlan | In short, there is no short term pain as the Pads gave up no players that were going to be factors for the 2014 season, nor likely any long term regret having not shipped out any high ceiling players that are projected to be impact guys down the road. Of course, you never know what players will actually develop into, but the arms they got back appear to have higher potential than what was given back. The Padres bullpen was certainly further fortified with this move.
LOOGY Acquired For Logie | Padres Public The deal basically boils down to this: The Padres went out and got the left-handed reliever they identified as an offseason need in exchange for a utility player. Everything else was just window dressing.
@Steve_Adler Padres giving up a lot of talent for a lefty specialist that coming into 2013 had control issues.
@Don_Norcross Trade seems marvelous for Pads. Too good to be true? If Forsythe could stay healthy (big if), I like his upside
@Ducksnorts #Padres trade injury-plagued 2B/3B, three unproven arms, org soldier to #Rays for two unproven arms with higher upside.
@619Sports On the @Padres trade: Logan Forsythe's injury struggles make parting with him easier to handle. Don't know if he'll ever stay healthy.
@LeftCoastBias Like the deal. Fills a need and acquires high upside potential.
@WoeDoctor I think both teams did well here. Satisfies needs both now, and in the future.
@MickeyKoke Alex Torres isn't just loogy either. Love it thus far.
Chat with Keith Law - SportsNation - ESPN I think they [Rays] gave up the two best players in the deal. Hahn has a ridiculous arm; he just can't stay healthy and I don't project him as a starter for that reason.
This man is in the midst of preparing himself for the chance of a lifetime.
London_balling. Yeah, you know the name. He is a talented writer. An intelligent individual. Gaslamp Ball knows him best as a member of the renowned Gaslamp Ball EuroPads AND the Sisterhood of the Traveling Jersey. But, do you know the name Alex Hoad? Well, guess what? London_balling and Alex Hoad are the same guy.
Yet, Alex is taking on a new journey. He’s trading in his football for our football. In 3 weeks, he is making a trip to the United States to try out in front of scouts during an NFL Combine. I’ll just go ahead and wait for you to pick your jaws up off the floor.
Are you good now? Everything all right? Cool.
Alex is getting this chance to show off in front of scouts for a chance to be in the National Football League. I found out about a month ago and it has been about that long for me to figure out how to put finger to keyboard and fill you in. But, while I've been wasting time not telling you about the man, he's been out there pushing himself to the limit in order to reach his goals by February 15 at 12:30 p.m. His position of choice? Tight end with the dream of being a British Antonio Gates or Jason Witten.
He has been detailing much of his struggles and small victories on his Twitter account. You can follow him on @AlintheNFL or read his blog titled Al In The NFL.
It's a great read and explains everything waaayyy better than I've been doing right now.
If Alex is able to make an impression on the scouts in February, he could be invited to the Super Regional Combine in Detroit that is held in April with a chance to be drafted during the NFL Draft or signed as a free agent by any of the 32 teams in the NFL. Drafted...
To read more about Alex's journey through football drills and the impending journey to New York City, you can check out his articles on Kent Online. Below are the first 3 articles about Alex and what it means to him to have this opportunity.
There will still be a few articles to go, so pay attention to his Twitter account and his fantastic blog for more to come from now until February and possibly even further.
