A closer look at the most advanced prospect returned in the Huston Street trade.
The best thing you can say about Taylor Lindsey's professional baseball career is that he had an outstanding 2013. Of course, one might read into that and think his 2014 has been sub par. They would be right. Last year in AA Lindsey slugged 17 HRs for the Arkansas Travelers. He had shown signs of that type of power before, but this was AA and over 500 at bats. It made him the top Angels prospect on most lists (the big fish in a small pond award) and even got him ranked as a top 100 prospect by Baseball America (#93). This year Lindsey got promoted to AAA, the hitters league of the PCL, and has not maintained that success. He has still been able to slug the ball hitting doubles and HRs, but many of his singles are gone so his batting average, OBP and SLG have suffered. However, he is not striking out more than he did before and he is actually drawing more walks. Perhaps he is only an adjustment away from a better looking triple slash line.
Since Lindsey was on all the Angels' top prospect lists there are plenty of prospect ranking sites to quite about him. Let us start with Baseball Prospectus who outlined his strengths and weaknesses:
Strengths: The hit tool could be plus; shows above-average bat speed; quick hands; can square velocity; can track off-speed; good gap pop; has athleticism to play a passable second base.
Weaknesses: Wide-base setup and leg movement can effect timing and balance; power potential is fringe-average at best; below-average run; below-average range; hands in the field are fringy; arm is average but not a weapon; has to hit.
One of the phrases some will use with Lindsey is that he "plays up his tools". He lacks a certain amount of athleticism that scouts would like to see in a player, but he works hard to make up for it with smarts and effort. David Eckstein was another player that played up his tools, but where Eckstein had baserunning savvy, Lindsey has his power. Chris Denorfia is another player that could be described that way and maybe Lindsey can be the second base version of Denorfia.
In the weaknesses section above the word fringy is used. ESPN's Keith Law also used that word when giving a brief description of Lindsey:
Taylor Lindsey is a natural hitter with a good swing, but he's a fringy defender at second, and he's barely using his lower half right now at the plate.
Another word that comes up a lot is average, such as when Fangraphs' Marc Hulet described Lindsey's prospects:
The Scouting Report: An offensive-minded second baseman, Lindsey saw his home run total jump from nine in both 2011 and 2012 to 17 last year in the Texas League. The Arizona native tweaked his approach at the plate to sacrifice some contact for the increased home run pop. Although he didn’t hit for as high of an average, his on-base percentage improved because he became more patient. He’ll likely never be anything special at the keystone but he should be an average defender.
The Career Outlook: Lindsey should be a slightly-above-average second baseman at the plate and average-ish on defence.
The talk about Lindsey turning to more power was a common theme Minorleageball.com's John Sickels also references it:
Appears to be emphasizing power over batting average, but he also drew more walks in ’13 and his overall rate of production was improved compared to 2012. Still looks like an Adam Kennedy/Todd Walker type second baseman, can be a regular but not a star.
Expect more on Lindsey from John Sickels in the coming days as he usually writes up reports for prospects involved in trades.
One thing that you might notice when you read these reports is that the descriptions do not read like a top prospect. As I mentioned earlier, he was a big fish in a small pond in the Angels farm system. They do not have the kind of prospects (like the Padres' Wisler, Hedges, Renfroe, Fried or even Liriano) that would normally top a system. He is just the best of what they do have due to his standout 2013 and his proximity to the major leagues.
That proximity to the majors puts him on the Padres' radar for 2015. The way he has hit this year points to him needing some more time in AAA to make adjustments and if things go well he can make a 2015 debut. Actually, even if they do not go perfect he should still debut next season in order to either get a taste of the majors, become an injury replacement or to challenge him. That will not be true of the other prospects in the deal, so Lindsey should stay fresher in your minds than the others. However, even if his debut is not in 2015, he will still just be 23 years old when that season finishes and younger than Jedd Gyorko was when he made his major league debut.
One last thing, make sure to use that "E" when typing Lindsey's name. The more common spelling has an "A".
Huston Street was only in San Diego for two-and-a-half seasons, but in the brief time he was around, he was gooood. How good? Well, among pitchers to finish at least 100 games for the Padres, he's first in both save percentage and ERA. And second place isn't particularly close in either case.
The Angels have bet the farm on Huston Street, giving up three of their best prospects for the veteran closer. Was this a wise move?
I like Huston Street. I want to open up this article by stating this unequivocally. I like Huston Street as a closer, I think he's very good, and I voted for him in our Beyond the Box Score All-Star voting. He's good, and I like when teams acquire good players.
We're clear on all that, right? Okay, great.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim made one of the strangest trades I've ever seen yesterday, acquiring closer Huston Street from the San Diego Padres. On the surface, adding Street -- who is an effective closer -- for a team that's primed to make the playoffs and with a bit of a sketchy bullpen, it makes a lot of sense.
But here's the thing. To acquire Street (and minor league pitcher Trevor Gott), the Angels gave up four minor leaguers. At least three of these minor leaguers are legitimate prospects, though -- to be fair -- the Angels' minor league system is pretty bad. Nevertheless, the four players -- Triple-A second baseman Taylor Lindsey, High-A shortstop Jose Rondon, Double-A reliever R.J. Alvarez, and High-A starter Elliot Morris -- represent a massive overpay for a year and a half of Huston Street (and minor league pitcher Trevor Gott).
First, let's talk about what the Angels can expect from Huston Street going forward. Street has been a very consistent ninth-inning force since entering the league, though he's had to deal with injury issues over the last few seasons.
Though he'd been very consistent up to last season, Street's peripherals fell apart in 2013. At the same time, he developed a very interesting "skill" -- while he let hitters on base, he did a tremendous job of preventing them from scoring. His LOB% of 99.5% was insane! He led all pitchers with 50+ innings pitched in this statistic, and the next closest pitcher to him was the hella-dominant Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel had a 92.2% LOB%.
This season, Street has had little margin to improve on this number, but he has nonetheless. His LOB%? 100%. If you get on base against Street -- he does not allow you to score. You have to hit a home run to get across the plate -- so far.
Here's the thing, though. This is -- if not entirely, then mostly -- an artifact of luck. Street's career LOB% is 77%, and if we know anything, it's that LOB% will cause you to be eaten by a luck dragon. 100% is not sustainable. It's not even close to sustainable. Yet it is a main factor in the ERA / RA9 success that Street has had over the past two seasons. Street has a career FIP of 3.20 and a career RA9 of 3.09. That's a pretty decent expectation for his future performance.
It's probably fair to project Street to be a good closer -- albeit one with some potential injury worries -- over the life of a contract that will pay him fairly, or perhaps a little bit undervaluing him. He's got a $7 million option for 2015. He's what I'd consider a good fit for Los Angeles, but not a cure-all.
The interesting thing here, of course, is that the Angels had to give up four prospects to get him.
The prospects the Padres received aren't sure things. But they're pretty good. Let's start with Elliot Morris. Elliot is a starter in High-A ball without a lot of pedigree or great minor league numbers. He's not really much of a prospect. In essence, he's a complete wild card and unlikely to make a substantial dent in the major leagues. Acquiring Morris is like hitting on 16 in a game of blackjack. The odds are terrible that you'll get what you need, but if you do, it's a nice surprise.
R.J. Alvarez, is much more of a sure thing, but he's no starter. He's a reliever, he's a legitimate prospect, and he's currently carving up hitters in Double-A. His strikeout rate is high (38%) and his ERA is low (0.33). If you squint, you can see an eight-or-ninth inning option with a plus slider. If you squint harder, his arm might explode, so try not to squint at him so much.
Basically, R.J. Alvarez has a small chance to become something like Huston Street, but probably not tomorrow. And that's when the Angels need Huston Street in their bullpen.
We'll take a break here, after Alvarez, because, well, this might be where the Angels should have taken a break from negotiations. Alvarez is a good Double-A reliever, and Morris is a maybe-back-end starter type. To take on Street's (fair) contract, this might be the right amount to pay, given that there's 12 years of control in play, and the fact that Alvarez looks like he could recoup some of Street's value immediately, or at least soon.
In my opinion, Street for Alvarez and Morris would have been a perfectly logical trade -- the Angels giving up future control for some immediate certainty in their rotation. It costs them a little money, and some potential down the line, but it makes the team better immediately. Done deal.
Jose Rondon isn't a sure thing, not by any means. He's a very young shortstop with questions about his bat, and some solid defensive chops. But, and this is important, he's got a skillset that could be valuable in the big leagues. Defense-first shortstops show up in the bigs all the time, and Rondon is hitting well enough at High-A (106 wRC+ this season) to make people think he can keep moving up.
If the deal was Street for Rondon, Alvarez, and Morris -- I'd think that it was a bit of a high price to pay for the Padres' closer, but I wouldn't lose my mind over it. None of those prospects are sure things, and the Angels are desperate to compete in the playoffs this year. Sure, that's 18+ years of service time, but most prospects don't really pan out as we'd like. This could have been a justifiable deal -- though a team like the Angels, without much prospect depth, may be mortgaging their future to pay for today.
But that's not where it stopped either.
Taylor Lindsey is having a bit of a down season, but coming into 2014, he was the consensus best prospect in the Angels' system. He made the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list. Chris St. John's JAVIER prospect projection system gives him a rating of "Productive" based on his minor-league stats. There's a decent, but not perfect, chance that Lindsey will be a productive major league second baseman -- something that the Padres currently do not have.
If Lindsey were to be able to provide a small amount of value in each of his first six major-league seasons -- we'll say just a win above replacement -- he'd be worth approximately $40 million dollars, or probably $30 million in surplus value. And projecting Lindsey for one WAR per season is a lowball offer. The Steamer projection system estimated 1.9 FanGraphs wins above replacement (fWAR) for Lindsey were he to play a full 2014 in the bigs. And unlike Rondon, or Alvarez, or Morris, he's ready to be a big-leaguer right about now.
In the end, the Angels gave up four prospects, three with some very real upside, for a year and a half of Huston Street. Huston Street is a relief pitcher, and relief pitchers are possibly the most volatile asset in baseball. Their performance swings wildly, and they are pitchers, which leaves them open to a host of injury possibilities.
All the Angels had to give up to get him was a good chunk of the top-end of their already-weak farm system.
Sometimes you have to overpay in order to get the player you want, or the player you need -- or even the player you just think you need. The Angels had a need for a bullpen arm. But they also have a need for a starting pitcher. And while a package like the one they put together for Street couldn't bring back a Samardzija or a Price, it probably could bring back a Bartolo Colon or a Kyle Kendrick, I'd presume. And as good as Street is, I think a starter is a more valuable asset, and a bigger need for this Angels team.
But hey, I'm not sure if the Angels mis-read the market, because it's almost impossible to tell what the market is like. We don't have a ton of information. What we do know, is that the value coming into the Angels' major league roster doesn't exactly line up with the value exiting their minor league system. Trading a maybe-starter and a very good Double-A reliever would've been a decent deal for Huston Street.
Throwing in two decent up-the-middle positional prospects as well? The Angels should have more to show for this deal than a good closer on a 1.5-year contract.
FOX Sports reporter Ken Rosenthal says the Royals are looking at the pitcher and keeping "all options open."
The Royals continue to surface in trade rumors as buyers with another new name popping up today. Fox Sports reporter Ken Rosenthal says the Royals have scouted Padres pitcher Ian Kennedy.
#Pirates, #Royals among teams that scouted #Padres’ Kennedy last night. Pirates looking for SP and RP. Royals keeping all options open.
While the Royals biggest need would seem to be offense, this report is consistent with earlier reports that had the Royals at least exploring the option of trading for pitchers David Price of Jeff Samardzija. The thinking may be that either Danny Duffy or Yordano Ventura may wear down as the season continues, causing them to move to the bullpen. A new starting pitcher can replace them and replace James Shields in 2015 when Big Game James leaves as a free agent. Another possibility is that the Royals acquire a starting pitcher, then use one of their current starters as a trade chip to land a bat.
Kennedy is a 29-year old right-hander in his eighth Major League season. He has been 7-9 with a 3.62 ERA for the Padres, but a 2.98 FIP, with over a strikeout per inning. The Padres bought Kennedy low last year, acquiring him from Arizona for left-handed reliever Joe Thatcher and minor leaguer Matt Stites. Kennedy's best season was in 2011 when he won 21 games with a 2.88 ERA, but he has been inconsistent since then. Kennedy originally began his career with the Yankees.
Ian earns about $2 million the remainder of the season and will likely earn $8-10 million in arbitration next year, becoming a free agent after the season. The Angels were heavily pursuing Kennedy recently, but with the acquisition of closer Huston Street, they likely no longer have the assets to acquire another pitcher. The Orioles and Pirates are two other clubs rumored to be scouting the pitcher.
At 20 years old and playing in High A ball, the positive sentiments about Rondon by Law have a lot to do with the shortstop's upside. To start the season Law ranked Rondon behind Taylor Lindsey, but made a comment about how Rondon (and a couple other very young players in the system) are the glimmers of hope in the system. Rondon has been backing up that hope by, according to Law, showing he is a legit shortstop (as opposed to a prospect playing SS who will need to move for defensive reasons) and hitting lots of singles. For his minor league career he is hitting .300 and this season was hitting .327 with Inland Empire of the California League.He sprays a few doubles and legs out some triples, but has only hit 2 professional HRs in his 4 years in the minors.
Let us move on from Law and the raw numbers and look at what others are saying. Here is what Baseball Prospectus said about his strengths and weaknesses before the season started:
Strengths: Advanced player; clean actions in the field; smooth; arm is solid-average; can make the throws; has instincts for the game; quick hands at the plate; can drive the ball; has some pop; good approach; not a burner but can run.
Weaknesses: Lacks high-end tools; arm isn’t a weapon; more polish than projection; range could be an issue at short; could grow out of the position.
The outlook from that scouting staff does not paint quite the same picture that you could paint from Law's sentiments. Seems like to them his value is in being very advanced for his age. He lacks the experience to truly excel on the teams he has been on, but the skills he have are much more polished that ones you would find for players at his age or playing at his level. The basic idea being that he is low risk. You give him enough experience playing the game and he will be a major leaguer someday, but probably just an average one. That's a solid prospect.
Marc Hulet of Fangraphs paints a similar picture:
The Scouting Report: Just 19, Rondon put forth a solid season in advanced rookie ball in 2013 and looks like a future No. 2 hole hitter. He makes outstanding contact — almost to a fault — because of his solid hand-eye coordination. He doesn’t have a ton of over-the-fence pop but he got stronger last year and hit more balls into the gap. He doesn’t have blazing speed but he’s a solid base runner capable of stealing bases in the double digits. Defensively, Rondon has a chance to be an above-average fielding shortstop with a strong arm and good actions.
The Career Outlook: The young Venezuelan may not be more than an average hitter with the bat but his defensive work could earn him a regular gig.
That report seems to point to better defense than what Baseball Prospectus outlined. John Sickels over at Minorleaugueball.com agrees on that point:
Venezuelan infielder is renowned for his excellent defense, and he showed some solid contact hitting skills in the Pioneer League. Doesn’t have any power yet, but has improved his plate discipline and doesn’t turn 20 until March. There’s some chance he can exceed expectations offensively.
He makes contact and does the little ball things like bunting very well for his age. He seldom strikes out and has performed well against older pitching this year, but he lacks strength and power and could also stand to add more patience at the plate. Although scouts rate his range and arm strength as only adequate for shortstop, he has great instincts and makes fewer errors than most infielders in his age group. He would be an excellent defender at second base and isn't bad at shortstop, making him an ideal utility infielder candidate, though it is plausible that he can develop enough offensively to start at some point, given his youth.
At this point we have enough reports to feel like we are over-scrutinizing the poor 20 year old. All the reports seems to conclude that this is a player with future major league potential. That is a nice piece to get back for a Major League relief pitcher.
After losing last night against the Mets, despite the offense scoring four runs, our Padres need to step up tonight to even up the series. Our All Star, Tyson Ross, will take the mound opposite Dillon Gee of the Mets.
Though San Diego is having a rough season as a whole, Tyson Ross may be having one the best season of his career. In his fifth year in the majors, and second year in a Padres uni, Ross has put up some career numbers so far. He's already surpassed any previous season in innings pitched (129 2/3) and strikeouts (126). He's managed to stay healthy all season and pitched his first ever complete game in shutout fashion last month. And he was named to his first career All Star team (though he was inactive for the actual All Star Game due to his pitching schedule). Over his last eight starts, he's pitched to the tune of a 2.38 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 54 innings. His most recent outing saw him keep the NL-West-leading Dodgers to one run on six hits and a walk while striking out nine players through seven innings.
But Ross hasn't had much to show for his efforts this season thanks to an inept Padres offense. Over that last eight-game stretch, he's only 1-6 while receiving just five total runs of support. They've lost eight of their last ten game and are riding a three-game losing streak going into tonight's matchup, hitting a collective .168 with with 25 strikeouts. One bright spot in the lineup lately has been Alexi Amarista, who's hitting .357 over his last 13 games. Last night he led the offense with three hits and an RBI against the Mets. The team collected four runs last night, which felt a bit like winning the lottery considering they had previously gone 25 straight innings without scoring.
Hopefully that offensive effort can continue tonight against Dillon Gee as he tries to lead New York to a fifth consecutive win. The Mets have won nine of their last 11 games and if things keep going the way they have, the could find themselves back in the playoff race in the NL East. Gee has two wins and a 1.35 ERA in three career outings against the Padres. In nine starts this season, he is 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA. After missing nearly two months with a strained lat he pitched a great game on July 9th, his most recent appearance, throwing seven innings of one-run ball against theBraves.
The Padres offense picked up a whopping 6 runs tonight (maybe Huston Street was dragging them down?), but they only needed one. That was all thanks to Tyson Ross, who threw 7 shutout innings, giving up just 4 singles and 3 walks. Mets starter Dillon Gee fooled more hitters, striking out 8. He didn't fool them enough, though, as the hot-swinging friars chased him after 5 innings. He gave up 4 runs, including a pair of homers.
Yasmani Grandal got the party started in the second with a 440 foot bomb to the beach. Rene Rivera, Alexi Amarista, and Chase Headley added on a pair of runs the very next inning, thanks to their three singles and a throwing error by left fielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis. The runs kept coming in the fourth, with Will Venable hitting a laser to the Jack Deck. Seth Smith did the same in the sixth. And just for good measure, our boys added one more in the eighth. Headley led off the inning with a double to left. Smith got him to third with a sacrifice fly, and a passed ball by Travis d'Arnaud got him the rest of the way home.
Odrisamer Despaigne will try to start the second half of the season with as series win as he takes the mound at 1:10 PM tomorrow.
Good game thread, everybody! Butt pats for everybody, with extras going to comment leader Friar Fever (51; just call him "The Closer") and rec leader Jodes (11).
The Mets were silenced by Tyson Ross and the Padres' bullpen on Saturday night.
The Mets were shut out in San Diego on Saturday, as Tyson Ross threw seven scoreless innings against them. Ross might not be a household name, but he has been very good over the last season-and-a-half. And given his dominance, the Mets just couldn't afford the four runs Dillon Gee allowed in five innings.
If there was a silver lining in Gee's start, it was that he struck out eight and walked none, but he gave up a couple of home runs—a tough thing to do against the 2014 Padres. Carlos Torres allowed a run in the sixth, too, and Josh Edgin was charged with an unearned run in the eighth to make it 6-0 in favor of the Padres. With that, the teams will play a rubber game at 4:10 PM EDT on Sunday afternoon.
GameThread Roll Call
Nice job by MetsFan4Decades; her effort in the GameThread embiggens us all.
In their quest to find a new general manager after firing Josh Byrnes, the Padres have seemingly interviewed all of baseball in order to find the perfect candidate to lead their organization going forward. San Diego interviewed Yankees assistant general manager Billy Eppler and it seems like he, along with Rangers AGM A.J. Preller, are the leading candidates to take over the job. They plan to hire someone in the next few weeks, so we should be hearing the final decision fairly soon.
The Mets lost to the Padres again on Sunday afternoon, wrapping up a disappointing first weekend after the All-Star break.
The Mets nearly gave the San Diego Padres their first ever no-hitter this afternoon at Petco Park, but Daniel Murphy put an end to that possibility with a two-out double in the eighth inning. At the time, the Mets were only down 1-0, as Zack Wheeler had a good start, and David Wright knocked him in with a single to tie the game.
Unfortunately, that was the high point of the game for New York. Jeurys Familia worked around a leadoff triple in the bottom of the eighth to keep the game tied, but a combination of Vic Black—who walked the first man he faced and committed a through-the-wickets error on an ensuing sacrifice bunt attempt—and Josh Edgin allowed the Padres to plate the winning run in the bottom of the ninth.
With that, the Mets dropped two of three in a series that required at least the inverse.
GameThread Roll Call
Nice job by amazins8669; his effort in the GameThread embiggens us all.
Denorfia really hasn't been good this year, hitting .243/.293/.327 in 81 games. He has 1 home runs, 7 steals (caught once), 16 walks and 45 strikeouts. He's played all 3 outfield spots, mostly right this year. Fangraphs has him at a 14.7 UZR/150 in the outfield this season. Maybe the Jays can get both him and Chase Headley in one deal.
Demorfia has a $2.25 million contract this year, so he's have about $1 million left on it and is a free agent after the season. I don't know if this interest means that Nolan Reimold will be out longer that we were led to believe. It does kind of suggest to me that Kevin Pillar isn't in the team's plans for the season.
Man, what a game today. Odrisamer Despaigne, who I should remind you is a 27-year old rookie, came within four outs of the Padres first ever no-hitter. Unfortunately, just after history slipped through his hands, so did the lead. Despite throwing a masterful game, Despaigne was stuck with a no decision. We didn't even get to find out what Joaquin Benoit's save music is, since the Padres decided if they weren't going to end baseball's second most frustrating drought, they might as well win in a walkoff.
Despaigne didn't even allow a baserunner until the third inning, when he beaned Ruben Tejada. Because you read that first paragraph, you know it didn't matter. In fact, nothing mattered until the top of the fourth, when Yasmani Grandal battled his way to a full count before taking Mets starter Zack Wheeler deep to put the Padres on top 1-0. That was the only scoring until the top of the eighth. With two outs, Daniel Murphy hit a double up the middle. With the shutout still intact, Bud Black wasn't quite ready to pull Despaigne. His attitude changed when David Wright hit Despaigne's 123rd pitch of the night for an RBI single. Alex Torres came in to wrap up the inning, and got pulled right after he allowed Lucas Duda to hit a single. Keven Quackenbush got the call to strikeout Travis d'Arnaud and keep the Mets from taking the lead.
Benoit's closing song will have to remain secret until the next homestand, but he did pitch a perfect inning to set the Padres up for a walkoff win. Carlos Quentin drew a walk to lead off the ninth. He and his rusty knees were replaced with Cameron Maybin. Alexi Amarista bunted him over to second, and an error by pitcher Vic Black put both men on safely. Chase Headley, who felt like injecting some drama and reminding everyone of the quality of the 2014 Padres offense, grounded into a double play, putting Maybin on third, but with two outs. Terry Collins thought this was a great time to change pitchers. Seth Smith was okay with that, hitting the game-winning single off of Josh Edgin.
After a happy flight to Chicago, Eric Stults will take the mound at Wrigley Field Tuesday evening. First pitch is at 5:05, so leave work early. Tell your boss I said it's okay.
The Angels got off to a decent start on the race to October. While the offense sputtered like an archaic hit and miss engine, just putting enough runs across to stay relevant. Meanwhile, the pitching was strong. Very strong. And the stars aligned just enough for the Halos to leverage that relevancy and turn in a series victory, taking 2 out of 3 from the Mariners. And that third, the Felix Hernandez start, could have easily been a 3rd win for a sweep. So although the offense is not back to pre-ASG break stupendousness, overall the team is still playing tough. And, hey, remember that there is a huge difference between the Rangers pitching staff and that of Seattle.
Let's start with Friday, er, Saturday. The Halos peppered Hisashi Iwakuma with hits by Howie Kendrick, David Freese and Hank Conger to take the lead with 2 runs in the fifth. To that point Iwakuma had allowed two hits through 12 outs. The Angels would not score again for 11 more innings. That would mean that the game went 16 innings, which it did, mostly because Jered Weaver went back out for one inning too many and gave up two immediate hits, and a run, in the 7th. Mike Morin came in to relieve and allowed an inherited runner to score on an Endy Chavez base hit, and the game was tied 2-2. A couple of hours later, suffering through anemic offenses or dominating bullpens, based on your perspective, Mike Trout doubles despite a base touch challenge by Seattle. After Albert Pujols grounds out, Efren Navarro comes in to pinch hit for John McDonald and, 5 hours and 14 minutes after the first pitch, promptly doubles in Trout for the winning run and a enjoys a walk-off Gatorade shower while chatting with Alex Curry as the Angels take the opener 3-2.
On Saturday, Garrett Richards went toe to toe with Felix Hernandez. Inning 1, no hits on either side. Inning 2, no hits on either side, though Hernandez gives up 2 walks. Inning 3, no hits on either side. Inning 4, no hits by M's, but Trout doubles. Inning 5, no hits by either side. Folks, we have an official old-style pitching duel here.
Inning 6, 2 hits put the M's up 1-0. The Angels go down in order. Inning 7, The M's go quietly, but the Angels tie it up on 2 walks, a single, a throwing error, and a rather curious baserunning decision by Josh Hamilton that might have cost us a meaningful run. Richards took down the M's in order in the 8th, and then bullpens started taking over. But by now Richards and Hernandez had shown us all some glimpses of immortality.
The Angels would squander a winning RISP in the 8th inning, and then again in the 9th. And Hamilton would run us out of the 11th with a failed 2-out steal attempt. So, what the hell, the M's went ahead and took the game being offered, scoring a pair in the 12th. Freese would respond with a meaningless homer in the bottom frame, but the Angels lost 3 - 2 in another extra inning contest.
Yesterday, in an early afternoon game, both offenses began to wake back up. the M's banged out 10 hits, scoring 5 runs. The Angels would counter with 16 hits, and 6 runs. Of note was that the M's went 5 for 9 with RISP, while the Halos were only 3 for 13. In fact, the Angels were only 6 for 34 with RISP all weekend. Yikes.
The drama of the game starts with the Mariners taking a 5-3 lead in the top of the 7th as Tyler Skaggs ran out of gas. Skaggs had surrendered 3 runs in the top of the 1st, then settled down and held Seattle silent for 5 innings. Kendrick got 1 run right back, driving in Trout, and we went into the 8th trailing 5-4. After Fernando Salas shut down Seattle in order, Navarro led off with a single. Grant Green flied out, and Fernandy Rodney was brought in for relief. Chris Iannetta did what Iannetta did a lot of all weekend - strike out - and Kole Calhoun flied out to end the inning. Rodney then did his usual asshat bow-and-arrow thing, but this time directed straight at the LAA dugout. Some might recall a little bad blood from Rodney with respect to Scioscia, after his failed tour with the Halos. Well, this was clearly seen by the boys in red, who took umbrage. Joe Thatcher spent a shaky 9th on the mound, managing to avoid giving up a run at all, which brought the Angels to bat down a run. And out trotted Rodney, again.
Properly motivated, Trout was extremely careful with his at-bat, watching Rodney go ballistic when his chipping away failed to get but one strike and Trout walked on 5 pitches. Mariners manager McLendon went to the mound to try and cool Rodney down, but Pujols came to bat and was not having it. Albert took the 3rd pitch and smacked it down the right field line allowing Trout to circle all the way from 1st to tie the game. From second, Pujols pulled one of Rodney's phantom arrows out of his own phantom quiver and shot it to Trout. And from home, Trout pulled out yet another of Rodney's phantom arrows and fired it right back at Pujols. Both shots right across the cocked-cap brow of Fernando. Let there be no misunderstanding: Rodney pulled a dick move and tried to smack the Angels. it was grossly premature. Dusty Baker-to-Russ Ortiz level of premature.
And what followed thereafter was lovely. Hamilton singled. Howie was intentionally walked. "Clutch' Freese grounded into a double play, but that just opened up first base so that Navarro could be intentionally walked. Then, with the bases loaded and the count 1 and 2, Grant Green took a shin-high fastball right up the middle and Hamilton jogged home with the walk-off winning run as the Angels won 6-5 and took the series. And Rodney's line? In 1.1 innings of work, he gave up 3 hits, 3 walks, and 2 earned runs against a single strike out. All-Star Jackass.
Jim Fregosi still not being honored with a memorial patch.
97 games lost. 65 games left to be ignored. (Oakland just brought out Bob Welch patches. I can now think of only 1 major baseball person who has passed and not been honored this season. Our All Star. Our Franchise Hall of Famer. Our early hero. Our guy.)
It's time to take matters into my own hands. I have submitted an order for my own patches, using the design above. Guerrilla marketing will commence shortly. I am going to follow with stickers. I will offer them up to all of you at no cost, provided I get back a photo of the patch in use. I will use the photo in a memorial montage. Bonus points if the picture is of the patch in use inside the stadium, or beyond borders. Below is the proof from the manufacturer. I am totally digging the product so far, and hope it arrives as forecast. (How I get them from me to you is still to be determined.)
Sign up in the comments below (Some of you signed on board last week. I have those already. Thanks!)
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Major League Baseball broadcast yet another Home Run Derby-Dud last week, as part of the annual All-Star Week Festivities. Recognizing that the beast has been a dud coming in to this year's event, they changed the format in an effort to improve the entertainment value. It was supposed to be "Epic". It was not. It was still a dud.
Another tradition that comes with every All-Star Break is the inevitable post Home Run Derby fallout of "Here's How To Fix The Home Run Derby" articles. Ideas are everywhere. Opinions are free. I have them, too. For example, why not shit-can the whole thing?
At the very bottom of this particular barrel, a home run derby is merely the baseball equivalent of a half-court shooting contest. Or a 60-yard field goal contest. Or televised bass fishing. As a made-for-TV event, one might expect that they would come up with something that actually scales well when watched from a TV. Home runs are visually impressive in person, but not on TV. Home runs are exciting on TV because they represent an immediate impact on the drama being played out. All we do, as viewers, is stare at the TV to confirm that the ball has indeed cleared the wall in fair territory, and then celebrate or commiserate among ourselves. But there is no drama at hand in the Derby. There is no us-versus-them-ism at stake to celebrate.
It's a single skills contest, of one singular skill, that does not play well in the media format for which it was created. And, as a bonus, there is evidence that the participants suffer somewhat from the act of participating in the first place.
Instead, how about MULTIPLE skills contests, combining multiple skills, that DO play well on TV - nay, that leverage state of the art video technology - and result in both individual and combined winners?? Something that allows the participants to choose the skills contests that best suit their strengths, without forcing some focus on a process that might risk their productivity in subsequent months of meaningful employ?
We could have baserunning contests and throwing contests and spray hitting contests. Speed and accuracy and distance all counting. A Billy Hamilton might run away with the baserunning title, but a Mike Trout might still get serious points toward an overall title by running anyway, and doing well enough to earn points similar to the point systems used in track and field decathlons. And MLB now has Statcast to track and showcase baserunning.
Infielders could line up and start from a fixed position, and track down uniform ground balls spit out by a pitching machine, being forced to field and throw and hit a target. Each turn through the line extends the range to be covered, and the target would have concentric circles indicating various point values for accuracy. Outfielders would have a similar setup, but might be chasing fly balls and their target would be set up at home plate. And, for both infielders and outfielders, the contest would measure the players going in both directions. Further, Statcast can track range and the electronics can highlight the targets and the scoring and animate the impact points.
Batters could face a pitching matching firing consistent fastballs at a fixed rate, and have a timed window wherein to spray hits to all fields, earning bonus points for combining more hits to more different gaps. And, yes, home runs would still count for something. And, get this, the point system would be electronically painted onto the field and the point combos would increase on the fly as the batter hit to more parts of the field to collect target objectives. Of course, chalk rings would be on the field already for stadium fans and players, but the real fun would be on the jumbotrons and on home screens.
For fans in attendance, they could make a day of it as the players went through the prelims for all the various events. Only that day's finalists would participate in the televised events that evening. Maybe the top 3 in each discipline and the top 3 in the all-around.
This provides a rich framework for all sorts of ideas: to define contests, to create rules, and play with video technology. And, yes, it leaves the pitchers out of it. I think that is a good thing, considering their tenderness and lack of general athleticism.
Oh. And one more thing. I think that each winner of the individual skills contests and the winner of the all-around should be granted a mandatory special sleeve stripe to be sown onto every uniform jersey that they wear for the next year. It should not be something they can opt out of, for the sake of their teammates or something. It should clearly identify them on the field as unique and denote excellence wherever they go. Over time, I see this as becoming a symbol of achievement, for which players would desire to wear for the honor. And that is my way of encouraging participation each year, and effort.
The Miami Marlins saw this weekend that they would definitely need help at starting pitching, and Ian Kennedy of the San Diego Padres might be the perfect candidate.
The Miami Marlins are looking to acquire talent in trades before this season's trade deadline, but that talent would have to be a good organizational fit. Part of what makes them a good organizational fit is team control in the 2015 season. The Fish are not looking for rentals this year in part because they are so far away from the NL East divisional lead following their six-game losing skid that sandwiched the All-Star break. Miami would rather have some talent available to bank on for next season as well as this year.
One of the positions of need is starting pitching, which became a surprising weakness this year thanks to the injury to Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is expected to be out with Tommy John surgery recovery for 12-18 months, putting his timeline for return potentially past the 2015 season at its latest. If Miami wants to convince Stanton that the franchise is ready to compete, maybe the rotation could use some assistance beyond Henderson Alvarez and Nathan Eovaldi.
Enter the possibility of San Diego Padres starter Ian Kennedy. Kennedy was an All-Star candidate in 2014 with a 3.62 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 129 1/3 innings for the Padres. His performance this year has reinvigorated a stagnant career path, and he is arbitration-eligible in 2015, meaning he would be under team control. Would the Marlins be able to pull off a trade for a good addition like Kennedy?
Trade Value
Kennedy has had a good season so far in 2014. His strikeout rate has soared to 25.6 percent, the highest it has ever been since he became a starting pitcher in the majors. His home run rate has dropped after a disastrous few years in Arizona, though a good amount of that can be attributed to Petco Park in San Diego. Overall, his performance has improved over the ugly mess he posted the last few years with the Diamondbacks; his ERA is back down to around the league average after park adjustment, and his FIP indicates a better underlying performance.
This all adds up to a decent expected performance from Kennedy. If he is expected to put up 0.9 Wins Above Replacement for the rest of 2014 in 80 innings, then combined with next season, we would expect a two-win pitcherover the course of a full year. That is a decent performance worth $16.5 million in free agent money over the next year-plus.
The problem for Kennedy is that he is likely owed a fair chunk of money in arbitration. He is owed a little more than $2 million this season and probably will get a jump to close to $9 million after he earned $6 million in 2014. That is a total of $11.5 million in salary commitment for an acquiring team, meaning his trade value sits at just $5 million.
Fit for Marlins
Kennedy would be another fantastic trade target fit for Miami. His style of pitching could not fit in a park like Chase Field in Arizona, but the heavy fly ball style fits well in more spacious confines like Petco Park or Marlins Park. The stadium's expansive outfield could probably hold a fair number of fly balls in the yard, leaving Kennedy's improved strikeouts-to-walks performance to carry the day.
The added outfield is aided even more by Miami's currently tremendous outfield defensive cast. Even if GIancarlo Stanton eventually leaves right field, the Marlins could boast a terrifying trio of Christian Yelich, Jake Marisnick, and Marcell Ozuna to snag errant fly balls down in the outfield. That would help Kennedy's run numbers even more.
Of course, the biggest thing is that it would give Miami a third solid contributor to the rotation for 2015 in case the Fish have to navigate that season without Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is expected to begin throwing in September, but the recovery from Tommy John surgery requires three to six months of slowly ramping up throwing regiments before going to full-on throwing. This timetable puts him close to ready around May or June, but if he is not, Miami would still have a respectable rotation with Kennedy on board. A Kennedy-Alvarez-Eovaldi-Heaney quartet would not be a bad start, and it would look better with Fernandez leading the way at some point.
Trade Package
The problem here again is the trade package required. The Padres have a bevy of pitching talent and a shortage of bats, which is exactly what the Marlins have as well. Beyond that, the Padres value Kennedy highly, likely more highly than his actual trade value. It is possible they see him as an extension candidate in the same vein as guys like Carlos Quentin and Seth Smith, veterans whom the Padres want filling holes in their young roster and getting them closer to contention. That plan sound familiar?
The Marlins only have two batting prospects of interest. Colin Moran has had his struggles but is recuperating after an ugly start in High-A Jupiter, but his stock has likely dropped a bit from the beginning of the year. Jake Marisnick was still on some top-100 prospect lists before 2014, but after a below-average season in Triple-A, you have to think he has fallen out of favor as well. Miami may be willing to send Marisnick as part of a package with another pitcher, but the Padres may really want to keep Kennedy and may ask for the moon.
A package of Marisnick and a pitcher like Justin Nicolino or Adam Conley should more than do it given Kennedy's salary commitments. Then again, because the Padres value possible contention next season, they probably are less willing to trade Kennedy and may bump up his price even further. Knowing this, I doubt we have a trade partner fit between the two teams.
Does going after another reliever make much sense?
The Indians are interested in Padres reliever Joaquin Benoit, according to Jon Heyman, who says the Tigers and Pirates are also checking in on the possibility of acquiring the 36-year-old righty.
Benoit is having an excellent season, with a 1.99 ERA in 40.2 innings. He's got 47 strikeouts compared to only 11 walks, and he's given up just 3 home runs. Those numbers are right in line with what he did for Detroit in 2013, so while the pitchers' haven that is Petco Field is likely helping, it's not as though he's some sort of mirage. He would certainly be an upgrade for any MLB bullpen, including the Tribe's.
Still, does acquiring him really make much sense for the Indians?
San Diego recently moved closer Huston Street for a pretty nice return, but wouldn't be looking for as much in exchange for their setup man. It would still take at least a second-tier prospect though. Not Francisco Lindor or Clint Frazier, but probably someone from the top ten in the Tribe farm system. Benoit is signed for 2015, with a team option for 2016, so he wouldn't just be a rental, but he's due $8 million for each of those seasons (or a $1.5 million buyout for 2016), which is a lot of money for the Indians to spend on a relief pitcher.
I'm generally against giving paying that kind of money to a reliever, even though I think he'd be a great 8th-inning guy for the Tribe as they fight for a playoff spot. Add on a decent prospect, and I'd rather this not happen.
A look at the top pitching prospect acquired in the Huston Street trade.
Pitching prospects are the common currency of the prospect laden deal. In the Huston Street trade, the top pitching prospect returned was AA right hander R.J. Alvarez. Pitching is easier to throw into these type of deals because no matter how highly the team trading away the pitcher values him, he is still a throw away from missing a season or more due to injury. Just look at the Mike Adams deal. The Padres were hailed for getting back two well-liked prospects from the Rangers, but in the end they were still pitchers (Robbie Erlin and Joe Weiland) and have missed significant time since being acquired. None of this is meant to knock R.J. Alvarez in particular. Instead it highlights how well the Padres did by getting two solid position player prospects in addition to Alvarez. Bravo.
Strengths: Big arm strength; fastball is impact weapon; works mid-90s and higher with ease; good vertical life; shows quality slider in the mid-80s; attacks hitters; late-innings mentality.
Weaknesses: Delivery has effort; arm slot inconsistency; (now throwing from low ¾); slider can flatten out; shows both a curveball and changeup that don’t grade to average; command is below average at present.
He's also a fastball-slider combo pitcher, destroying right-handed batters this season... but it's control rather than command. (Alvarez) could probably pitch in San Diego's pen next year.
If you are interested in hearing a chorus of similar thoughts, here is Minorleagueball.com's John Sickels chiming in:
He has overpowering stuff, featuring a 93-96 MPH fastball and a very good slider, reflected sabermetrically in outstanding K/IP ratios. Alvarez has two problems: erratic control, and high-effort mechanics that worry scouts. He has enough stuff to close if he can sharpen his command and should be at least an effective middle reliever if he avoids physical problems.
To get some full harmony, I will add Marc Hulet of Fangraphs with a comment from his preseason prospect piece:
The Scouting Report: Alvarez strength as a pitcher is his mid-90s fastball that can touch the upper 90s. He throws with a lot of effort and a low three-quarter arm slot. His slider has its moments but it’s too inconsistent to be considered an above-average offering at this point. It will be interesting to see if he commands the ball well enough to dominate Double-A hitters.
The Career Outlook: The lack of reliable secondary pitches could limit Alvarez is a set up role. However, should his slider become an above-average offering, he could develop into a ninth-inning man.
Given that there is so much consensus around what Alvarez does and does not bring to the table, I do not have anything else to add. The Padres have themselves a nice future bullpen piece that will be major league ready soon. Expect near year for Alvarez to be handled similar to Kevin Quackenbush. He will be a fixture in major league camp for Spring Training. He will initially not be on the 40 man roster. There will likely be some reason to call him up at some point and then he will get a chance to prove how well he can transition to the bigs. If he does well, he will stick around.
A look at the final prospect acquired in the Huston Street trade.
RHP Elliot Morris, for lack of a better description, is R.J. Alvarez light. He was drafted in 2013, a year after Alvarez, and was pitching this year with Angels' California League team in Inland Empire just as Alvarez was at the same age. Morris was a 4th round pick, whereas Alvarez was a 3rd round pick. Alvarez has better strikeout rates than Morris. They both have had trouble walking people. Morris has been more prone to the long ball. Both are right handers that achieve most of their pitching success throwing to same-sided hitters. It is a bit of a lazy comparison, but since they are in the same trade together you end up comparing the two. One major difference though is that Morris has been used as a starter and Alvarez as a reliever.
Right-hander Elliot Morris had emerged as the Angels' top pitching prospect outside of rookie ball, reaching 92 to 96 mph with plus sink and an average or better low-80s slider, although it's a high effort delivery with some head violence and he doesn't have an effective pitch for left-handed hitters. He's a future reliever, alongside current reliever R.J. Alvarez.... Both guys could probably pitch in San Diego's pen next year.
Notice that Law things of Morris as a future reliever. That makes sense given that Morris has issues with left handed hitting. You face a lot more left handers as a starter than as a reliever. Perhaps if Morris did move to relief he could bump up that strikeout rate that lags behind Alvarez' and reduce the HR rate. My guess is that the Padres will stick with Morris as a starter in the near term.
Morris is a 6-4, 210 pound right-hander born April 26, 1992. He had Tommy John surgery in college but has fully recovered, showing a 92-96 MPH fastball with good sinking action. He has a decent slider but his changeup needs work and his overall command needs sharpening. At higher levels he projects as a number four starter if his secondary pitches improve, or a middle relief option if they don't.
Interesting to note that Morris, like Jesse Hahn, comes to the Padres after already undergoing Tommy John surgery. Unlike Hahn, his former team did not seem to limit Morris' innings and saw him, like Sickels does, as fully recovered. Sickels, unlike Law, also mentions Morris' prospects as a starter. He gives some slim hope that the 22 year old's secondary pitches could improve, which one could infer would mean that he would handle lefties better.
Now that we have gotten away from the similarities Morris has with Alvarez I will add on one more. Morris looks to be a bit further away from the majors for more reasons than just being a year younger than R.J. Because I expect the Padres to keep working with Morris on staying a starter, they will not rush him too quickly up the chain. He will finish the year with Lake Elsinore then get a full year with San Antonio and then will get a least one more season (either in AAA or split between AA and AAA) working to refine his offerings. So, where Alvarez could don a Padres uni in 2015 I would not expect a Morris siting at Petco Park before 2017.
The Blue Jays, who have been plagued by injuries but are still in the playoff hunt while playing in the unusually weak AL East, have holes at third base and in the outfield, which makes Headley and Denorfia logical fits.
Headley has struggled through a tough season, but he's rebounding just in time for trade season, with a .323 batting average in July. And yet, some warning signs still surround the Padres third baseman. Despite his improved performance, he has 16 strikeouts in 65 at-bats this month—with no walks. He's also homered once since June 14, and his season OBP still sits below .300.
But that likely won't dissuade the Jays. 27-year-old corner infielder Juan Francisco is currently manning the hot corner, and though he has been serviceable this season, with a .234/.309/.502 line across 230 plate appearances, the Jays would likely prefer the presence of a veteran hitter with a history of success. Plus, just as Headley is trending upward, Francisco is slumping majorly, with a .286 OBP in July that is a carryover from his .169/.217/.369 line in June.
If the Jays don't choose to pursue Headley, other teams certainly will. The Yankees have been an oft-mentioned suitor for the third baseman, and the team's lack of an established player at his position, combined with a ballpark that would be a welcome switch from the expansive Petco Park, might make Headley a prime choice to move to New York. Given the Blue Jays' and Yankees' nearly identical records, each team could make a bigger push than usual to acquire Headley's services—for the sake of bringing him on as much as keeping him away from the other.
In addition to Headley, the Jays are pursuing Denorfia, a .275 career hitter who can play all three outfield positions. Though his numbers have dipped this year, Denorfia would likely still be a favorable upgrade from Anthony Gose, who has registered five extra-base hits and driven in six runs in 140 plate appearances.
Despite what seems to be an optimal time to trade the right-hander, Arizona appears intent on keeping him.
The Detroit Tigers have apparently been in contact with the Arizona Diamondbacks regarding the availability of right-hander Brad Ziegler, reports FOX Sports' Jon Morosi. However, it appears that Arizona is "inclined to keep" Ziegler rather than deal him despite their awful 43-56 record and 11.5 game hole in the NL West.
The Tigers have been scouring the relief market in search of some stability at the back of their bullpen, as incumbent closer and major offseason acquisitionJoe Nathan has struggled greatly this season. For a team as good as Detroit, they have quite an awful bullpen, with only three relievers currently on their roster sporting an above-average ERA+, and a 3.94 staff FIP that ranks just 25th in the majors. Detroit has been connected to numerous late-innings arms in recent days, including Joakim Soria of the Rangers and Joaquin Benoit of the Padres.
Diamondbacks' president Derrick Hall recently called Ziegler "impossible to replace", and considering his rather team-friendly contract extension signed in December, Ziegler provides value to Arizona beyond 2014. He will make just $5 million next season and the Diamondbacks carry a $5.5 million club option on him for 2016 that includes a $1 million buyout.
Ziegler is enjoying an excellent season in his fourth year with the Diamondbacks. In a league-leading 51 appearances, Ziegler has thrown 50.1 innings with a 2.50 ERA, 151 ERA+, 3.30 FIP, 2.59 K/BB, and 1.2 WAR. For his career, he owns a 2.41 ERA, 3.35 FIP, and 10.6 WAR.
