I know I say "Huh, I thought he'd be a lot older than that" or something to that effect fairly often in these silly little birthday posts, but good grief, Jeff Francoeur really seems like he should be at least half a decade older. And it's not like I just found out his age, either. I remember hearing last season that Francoeur was just 30 years old and it surprised me every time I heard it. I guess some things just so farfetched that one's brain refuses to absorb them. Give me a week or two and I'm going to be amazed he's just 31.
Francoeur wasn't a Friar for long -- and performed woefully in the 10 games he was up -- but he did provide Padres fans a lot of entertainment with his exploits down in AAA. Early in the season he made headlines for being the butt of an elaborate prank orchestrated over weeks by all of his El Paso Chihuahuas teammates and coaches; they got him again with a less-involved prank in late July. On the field between those times, Francoeur kept things interesting by pitching an inning here or there in blowouts; all told he made eight appearances on the hill, putting up a 3.68 ERA by allowing three earned runs over his 7.1 innings. As for his offensive statistics, they were pretty much what you'd expect out of Jeff Francoeur in AAA: .289/ .320/ .450 with 22 doubles, 15 homers, a nice amount of RBI, and barely any walks in 487 plate appearances.
Since season's end, Francoeur has signed a minor league deal with the Phillies. If he makes their big league club, it'll be his seventh team in his 11 seasons in the majors. If not, I just hope the organization and their AAA manager, Dave Brundage, let him keep taking the mound.
In addition to Francoeur, five other former Friars celebrate birthdays today. More on (some of? all of?) them later.
The new-look Padres would be complete with a new look in their uniforms.
John B. is at it again. We've shared his work on Gaslamp Ball before here and here, but he's been updating and promoting his designs again lately. His newest photoshop features one of Preller's Padres, Matt Kemp, sporting the brown pinstripe concept, and it looks like a home run (baseball puns are fun on a bun) (so is rhyming).
Count me in as a supporter of this look. These uniforms look sharp. And while I, like jbox, do prefer the more gaudy and traditional use of brown/gold/orange by the Padres (as well as the "Taco Bell" hats and the old school SD logo), if something like John's mockups are what we need to get brown back in the team's everyday lineup, then that's a compromise I'm more than willing - enthusiastic even - to make. It's a perfect blend of tradition and modernity, with the throwback PCL "Padres" script and the modern "San Diego" font and interlocking SD logo.
Here are just some of the responses on Twitter to John's uniform concepts:
@CT2SD@johnbrubaker that's the only thing missing from what could be an outstanding season. Bring back the brown uniforms! @Padres
Of the six former Padres players born on January 8, brand-new 42-year-old Mike Cameron played the most games with the team. His 292 games in 2006 and 2007 edge out the 267 games played by Randy Ready from late-1986 through mid-'89.
Cameron was acquired from the Mets on November 18, 2005 in an even-up swap for Xavier Nady. He had hit 30 home runs as recently as 2004, but questions lingered as to how he'd bounce back following an August 11 outfield collision that literally shattered his face, hospitalizing him for a week and ending his season. This happened at, of all places, Petco Park. When the trade to San Diego went down, that fact was not lost on Cameron.
"Maybe it's a test from a higher power, to be able to come back and play in the same place," Cameron said. "I was thinking the other day, 'Man, I'm going to the same place.' I guess the good Lord wants me to get rid of my fears right away. I'll be all right."
And he was alright. Cameron turned in one of his best overall seasons in 2006, winning his third Gold Glove, tying his career-high of 34 doubles, receiving MVP votes for the second time, and recording his fifth 20 homer/ 20 steal season. It was the only 20/20 season by a Padres player between 2001 and 2013. He probably would have had another such season in 2007, but Milton Bradley stepped on his hand (in the outfield... at Petco Park) with about a week left in the season, leaving him stuck at 18 stolen bases.
After the 2007 wrapped up, Cameron kicked off his winter of free agency by getting popped with a 25-game amphetamine suspension. Milwaukee signed him to a two-year deal nonetheless, and he did well there both seasons. From there it was to Boston; he saw action in only 81 games with the Red Sox over the next year and a half, then went to the Marlins for his final 45 major league games. Cameron signed with the Nationals before the 2012 season, but retired as spring training began.
As I mentioned in Mike Cameron's birthday post earlier today, Randy Ready has played the second-most games with the Padres of any of the six former Friars born this day. However, Ready's affiliation with the organization goes far beyond those 267 games in the late-'80s.
Ready came to the Padres from the Brewers in a June, 1986 trade for a player to be named later, who turned out after the season to be Tim Pyznarski. Although he raked in the minors, he only got into a smattering of games in his four seasons with the Brewers, maxing out at 48 in 1985. He only played in one 1986 contest for the Friars following the trade, but had a breakthrough 1987 season. He saw near-regular duty for the first time, getting into 124 games and seeing time at third base, second base, and left field. His bat finally showed up when given time to get settled in, as he slashed .309/ .423/ .520 with 26 doubles, six triples, and a dozen homers. Sorry to be anticlimactic, but all of these would prove to be career-highs.
He still hit well in 1988, albeit in more limited action, and scuffled a bit in 1989 until he and his friend, fellow change-of-scenery candidate John Kruk, were sent to Philadelphia for Chris James mid-season. He stuck around Philadelphia for a couple years as their go-to utility guy, headed to Oakland in 1992 and Montreal in '93, then went back to the Phillies in '94 and '95 for his last 40 major league games. Ready headed to Japan for 1996 but was released by the Chiba Lotte Marines in early June; that precipitated his first return to the Padres organization.
Ready finished out the 1996 season with the Padres' AAA affiliate in Las Vegas. He hit well but received no major league offers after the season; he wrapped up his playing days with seven games for Lake Elsinore, then the Angels' high-A affilate, in 1987.
Randy Ready re-returned to the Padres organization in 2004 to manage the team's A-ball team in Fort Wayne. He stayed there for three seasons, then managed a year at AA San Antonio and two years at AAA Portland before being replacing Jim Lefebvre as the big club's hitting coach at the trade deadline of 2009. Ready lasted over two years until being fired at the end of an ugly 2011 season.
Since then, Ready has worked in the minors for the Rangers and Braves organizations. All in all, he has lived a fairly eventful 55 years. Best of luck to him in his fifty-sixth year and beyond, whether or not that future includes a fourth stint on the Padres' payroll.
The Reds were really in the market for a near-majors RHP. Really.
We've watched intently all Winter as the Cincinnati Reds compiled more, and more, and more right-handed pitchers for their arsenal. Yesterday, we watched as Baseball America released their list of the Top 10 prospects in the Reds system, only to find that 83 of those 10 were - you guessed it - right-handed pitchers.
Well, the journey to stockpile more of the most prized asset (we hope) in baseball continued for Walt Jocketty and Co. today, as they've apparently claimed Keyvius Sampson from the San Diego Padres.
The #Reds today claimed RHP Keyvius Sampson from the Padres.
Sampson was a 4th round pick out of Forest High School in Florida by the Friars back in 2009, and so far he's managed to make his way all the way to AAA with career minor league K/9 of 9.6, which is pretty dang impressive. He was DFA'd recently when San Diego picked up Shawn Kelley, which likely prompted Walt to take a closer look at him.
While he blew through A ball and had a pretty decent stop through AA, his foray into AAA has been downright ugly, and there's no two ways around that, really. He struggled to a 6.68 ERA and 1.735 WHIP in just over 90 IP in 2014 after spending 38 rough innings there to finish up his 2013, and ultimately ended up pitching from the bullpen consistently for the first time in his minor league career after the wheels fell off of his starting regimen. And even when those splits are broken down, things didn't really look any rosier for him. Still, he just turned 24 years old, has a live fastball that sits in the mid 90's and can run up to 97, was good enough to feature in the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars Game in 2013, and Baseball America rated his change-up the best in the Padres' system as recently as 2012, so there's definitely something there worth taking a look at.
His claiming leaves him stashed on the Reds 40-man roster, meaning he's a rough replacement for the recently non-tendered Curtis Partch, more or less, assuming the Reds choose to keep him on his newly minted bullpen path. The bullpen is still one of the top priorities in need of fixin' this off-season, so this seems to be a pretty low-cost way of adding depth there, if so. Since he's one of a super duper crowded set of talented, near-majors arms, there's no telling where he'll begin the season, both in terms of physical location (either Pensacola or Louisville) and in terms of role (starter or bullpen). Either way, he's a nice depth addition that comes at a very minimal cost.
There were a lot of roster changes last month, but what was actually accomplished?
Let me start this off by saying I really, really, really want to be optimistic about all these moves the Padres have made. In fact, I would want to be optimistic about the Padres in general. It's part of the nature of my Padres fandom. However I'm also a bit of an analytical person, so I am curious if my subjectivity can align with my objectivity.
Like the rest of you, I marveled in December at the moves new Padres GM A.J. Preller was able to make. Acquiring Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks, Brandon Morrow and Justin Upton to name a few. I also follow Padres prospects pretty closely and knew the names going the other way: Lots of solid prospects left the organization, but them leaving didn't bother me that much. My honest assessment of the Padres farm system was that despite a lot of good prospects, there wasn't a future major league core on the way and something needed to be done. Moving them for big leaguers seemed like a good idea. I was on board. I was even okay with overpaying (whatever that means) in prospects for major leaguers. The Padres had a lot of good trade chits, but you only have so many major league roster spots. Something had to give so why not overpay a little?
However, the wheeling and dealing seems to be close to if not at the end. The first warning sign comes when you look at the team's payroll commitment for 2015: it's projected to be just shy of $90M, which is right around where it was last year. All that flash and pizzazz of bringing in established players and in the end the team is just as frugal as ever. While that might work for this season, the bill will come due in future seasons. Matt Kemp only counts for $3M of the payroll in 2015, but in 2016-2019 he will take up $18.5M. The Padres will free up some payroll commitments next year, but some of those players like Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy are expected to be pretty decent contributors in 2015 and would be big losses going forward, losses that are hard to replace when you don't have a lot of financial wiggle room. But that's all a problem for another day. What would be troublesome for 2015 is if this roster isn't quite good enough, but they are stuck with that payroll number.
So let's dig into projections for the 2015 roster. If you don't like using statistics then it's time to either read something else or roll your eyes, but I don't know a more accurate to project what a team might do without them. It is also my understanding that pretty much every team in the majors does something (more advanced, but) similar. When they build their team they use the numbers to project what that team might do. Just for fun, I've done the same thing since 2011. I don't have a fancy calculation to do it. I use 3 years worth of WAR data and weight them with the most recent year getting a weight of 5, the 2nd year getting a weight of 3 and the 3rd year getting a weight of 1. I also look at what would happen if players just repeated what they did the previous year. I Then take that data and adjust some things up or down based on my own judgement without getting crazy about it. I know regression has flaws like undervaluing rookie seasons, so that's why I make adjustments. The end result isn't as scientific as ZIPs or PECOTA or Steamer or whatever other projection system, but it does the job when those aren't out yet. Steamer is currently available via Fangraphs, but the results aren't that different.
For the upcoming season, the outcome is that even if I get optimistic about certain aspects, my projections (and also Steamer's projections) come up short. Even if Kemp is more like 2012 Kemp instead of 2013 or 2014 Kemp and Wil Myers is more like 2013 than 2014 and Gyorko bounces back some and they get some decent production from guys like Solarte and Spangenberg and Medica and the core of the pitching staff stays as healthy as it did in 2014, it just doesn't look good. It looks like a similar result to what we have seen for the last few seasons. This team made some very good additions, but it also lost Chase Headley, Seth Smith, Jesse Hahn, Yasmani Grandal and Huston Street. All those guys gave the team some very positive contributions in 2014. It's the same sort of two steps forward two steps back that the 2014 team experienced. That team got better pitching, but saw position player performances from Gyorko, Denorfia, Venable, Cabrera and Quentin drop off dramatically.
What A.J. Preller has done reminds me a lot of the 2013 team. Then-GM Josh Byrnes, in a less flashy manner, got a number of solid pieces in place, but it didn't propel the Padres to anything better than where they were. It took him two years to do it, but he had acquired Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Carlos Quentin, Huston Street, Edinson Volquez. He also had a solid platoon in RF in Will Venable and Chris Denorfia, a promising rookie in Jedd Gyorko, a stud 3B coming off his best year in Chase Headley, a re-established SS in Everth Cabrera, a good CF in Cameron Maybin, a veteran in Clayton Richard to buoy the staff and Eric Stults coming off a promising 2012 season. Again, it wasn't as flashy as this 2015 will be, but it didn't have the holes this one has either. Byrnes had a solid team. As it turned out pitching and health became that team's biggest flaws, but the team still wasn't bad. They just weren't good either.
This 2015 team has some flaws that are easier to point out without hindsight. It doesn't appear likely that they will get much production offensively or defensively from the infielders. The rotation has 3 productive pitchers, but none are likely to finish in the top 30 SPs in WAR and maybe only one will be in the top 50. The other two spots are big question marks. The bullpen has fine anchor in Joaquin Benoit, but you can't hang your hat on any of the rest of them. All you know is that they aren't likely to suck. These are not huge glaring flaws. They aren't going to sink the team to a bottom 5 finish. However, they add up to a projection that puts the team right back where they it was in 2014. I will add, though, that the team is definitely better than when they started the offseason. I think standing pat would have resulted in a pretty awful team.
But, like I said at the beginning, I really, really, really want to be optimistic about this team. And I want to be optimistic about them contending for a playoff spot. So, if I'm going to put on my fan hat and let the analytic side only tell me where the team needs help, then I can say that I have to root for the following: Wil Myers breaks out and plays a nice CF, Tyson Ross builds on 2014 to be better than ever, Cashner is healthier than ever, Kennedy is as good as 2014, Kemp works on his defense and hits as well as he did in the 2nd half of 2014, either Middlebrooks, Solarte or Spangenberg is a productive 3B, Amarista or Barmes plays an excellent SS, Gyorko plays more like 2013 than 2014, Norris is as good as he was in 2014, Kelley, Maurer, Torres or Quackenbush is dominant in the 8th inning and one of the others is good in the 7th. None of those are huge asks on their own, they just add up to being unrealistic on the whole. But what fan has ever stopped him or herself from rooting just because the odds were against it?
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2015 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders for the book, so order early and order often!
All of these grades are preliminary and subject to change.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS
Grade A prospects are the elite.In theory, they have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Theoretically, most Grade A prospects develop into stars or at least major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for the full analysis about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much.A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
1) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Grade A: Age 20, fully recovered from Tommy John, posted 2.20 ERA with 110/28 K/BB in 98 innings in Low-A. Mid/upper 90s fastball, excellent curve, change-up steadily improving, control solid for a young power arm, potential number one starter if he maintains his health. 2) Michael Taylor, OF, Grade B+: Age 23, toolsy outfielder hit .313/.396/.539 in Double-A with 34 steals, excellent center field defense. Physical tools have always been here and he’s taken several steps forward with the skills, may not hit for average but could do everything else well or better.
3) A.J. Cole, RHP, Grade B+/Borderline B: Age 23, went 13-3, 3.16 with 111/32 K/BB in 134 innings in Double-A/Triple-A, 148 hits. A bit more hittable last year but throws three pitches for strikes, I still believe he can be a fine mid-rotation starter. Some people have prospect fatigue with this one I suspect, like Jake Odorizzi entering 2014.
4) Trea Turner, SS, Grade B: Age 21, Padres 2014 first-round pick out of North Carolina State hit .323/.406/.448 with 23 steals in his debut between Northwest and Midwest League. Sound defender and looks like he can hit enough to play regularly. Still with the Padres system officially but everyone knows he will be the "player to be named" in the big trade. It will be interesting to see if they can work out a player loan arrangement until the deal can officially go through in late June.
5) Joe Ross, RHP, Grade B: Age 21, another component of big trade with Padres although this one can be made official. 3.92 ERA with 106/29 K/BB in 122 innings between High-A and Double-A, steadily gaining command of power sinker, slider, change-up. Should be a workhorse. 6) Wilmer Difo, INF, Grade B-: Age 22, came out of nowhere to hit .315/.360/.470 with 49 steals and 14 homers in Low-A. Switch-hitter, speed and some pop, competent defender at both second base and shortstop. "Wilmer Difo" is a good name for a Jedi Knight.
7) Erick Fedde, RHP, Grade B-: Age 21, first round pick out of UNLV despite being on shelf with Tommy John surgery. Pre-injury, worked in mid-90s with a power slider and decent change-up, number two starter projection. We’ll have to see how he comes back from the injury.
8) Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Grade B-: Age 21, posted 1.08 ERA with 70/26 K/BB in 83 innings between NY-P and Sally League, can hit 98, curve and change-up still under development, has an injury history so we’ll have to see about stamina. Number two upside if the durability and change-up come along, power reliever if they don’t. 9) Drew Ward, 3B, Grade B-: Age 20, hit .269/.341/.413 with 10 homers, 42 walks, 121 strikeouts in 431 at-bats in Low-A. Working to turn raw power into game power, defense needs polish too, but held his own overall coming out of a small Oklahoma high school into full-season ball.
10) Brian Goodwin, OF, Grade C+: Age 24, disappointing season in Triple-A, just .219/.342/.328 in 274 at-bats before going down with torn labrum. Still has the tools, good runner and fielder, draws walks but offensive production is otherwise very erratic. Stock slipping.
11) Austin Voth, RHP, Grade C+: Age 22, posted 2.77 ERA with 133/38 K/BB in 127 innings, 89 hits between Low-A, High-A, Double-A. Scouts don’t like him as much as the numbers, seeing a back-end starter with an 88-93 MPH fastball and decent but not excellent slider and change-up. Pitchability adds to the package, however, and he could surprise the doubters.
12) Rafael Bautista, OF, Grade C+: Age 21, hit .290/.341/.382 with 69 steals in 487 at-batsin Low-A. Very fast, athletic but lacks big power potential and needs more polish on defense, often projected as a fourth outfielder. Something of a strange case, normally scouts drool over athletic speed players like this. He’s not too old for his levels but is often overlooked. 13) Jakson Reetz, C, Grade C+: Age 19, third round pick from Nebraska high school, highest ceiling among intriguing group of Nationals catching prospects, hit .274/.429/.368 in rookie ball. Good strike zone judgment, good defensive tools, needs experience. Could vault up the list next year.
14) Felipe Rivero, LHP, Grade C+: Age 23, 3.35 ERA with 50/19 K/BB in 54 innings, mostly in Double-A with a handful of low level rehab outings due to injury. Live arm, nice low-90s fastball, curve and change flash plus but needs more consistency. Number three starter if he maxes everything out, more probably a four/five or a solid reliever.
15) Pedro Severino, C, Grade C+: Age 21, excellent throwing arm, developed some power last year, hitting .247/.306/.399 in High-A. He’s made progress but there are still questions about offensive development.
16) Raudy Read, C, Grade C+: Age 21, another catcher with sound defensive skills and a good arm, hit .281/.332/.462 in the New York-Penn League, greatly improved over his rookie ball production. Another candidate to leap the list.
17) Spencer "There was supposed to be an Earth-shattering" Kieboom, C, Grade C+: Age 23, Clemson product had excellent year in Low-A, .309/.352/.500 in 330 at-bats. His defense has always been highly-rated but nobody thought he could hit like this. Can he keep it up? Maybe.
18) Tony Renda, 2B, Grade C+: Age 23, hit .307/.381/.377 with 19 steals but zero homers in High-A. Stereotyped scrappy second base type, contact hitter, very reliable at second base but lacks the tools to play shortstop. Double-A will tell us a lot. 19) Chris Bostick, 2B, Grade C+: Age 21, acquired in trade with Rangers, hit .251/.322/.412 with 11 homers, 24 steals, 47 walks, 116 strikeouts in 495 at-bats in High-A. Needs to tighten up defense as well as strike zone, but could become a multi-category contributor if he can handle Double-A.
20) Nick Pivetta, RHP, Grade C/Borderline C+: Age 21, posted 4.22 ERA with 98/39 K/BB in 132 innings in Low-A, 142 hits. Mediocre stats but a live arm, can hit mid-90s, good size at 6-5, 220, curve and change show potential. Possible mid-rotation arm with more development.
The Nationals system was starting to look a little thin to me, but trades this winter have boosted talent depth with the addition of Ross and Bostick and the pending addition of Turner. Much of the major league talent is home-grown of course and the Nationals have shown the ability to recharge quickly, so in general this is a solid system.
Pitching depth is intriguing, beginning with (hopefully) future ace Lucas Giolito but extending to other live arms. Prospect fatigue is setting in with A.J. Cole but I still think there is more to like with him than dislike. Ross is a good pick-up, Lopez had a breakthrough last year and just needs to add some durability to the mix. The Nationals hope that Erick Fedde follows the Giolito "injured pitcher" example rather than the Matt Purke and Sammy Solis examples. There are a several hard-throwers (Pivetta, Rivero, Johansen, Rodriguez) who haven’t done much statistically yet but who could develop into very useful properties. The Nationals don’t eschew pitchability and can also find some polished strike-thrower types like Voth and Taylor Hill. Sometimes those guys surprise us. . .maybe there’s another Tanner Roark in the group.
On the hitting side there is a definite lack of obvious star potential, but there is considerable depth in C+ types. The best of the crop is Taylor, a potential multi-skilled regular. Turner (whenever he moves over from the Padres), Difo, Bostick, Renda, and the large group of catchers provide up the middle talent at premium defensive positions. They could use more power. Matt Skole’s disappointing season wasn’t good news after missing almost all of 2013 with injury. Drew Ward has upside but isn’t there yet.
The Nationals have a reputation for finding hidden gems on the international market and their rookie ball team should be very interesting, with several exciting players headlined by Franco and Robles making the transition from the Dominican Summer League.
Up to this point, Chase Headley's career path has looked very similar to that of Scott Brosius, and that's not necessarily a bad thing.
Prior to the 1998 season the Yankees found themselves with a giant question mark at third base. At 39 years old Wade Boggs was deemed expendable following the 1997 season and his platoon mate Charlie Hayes was traded to the San Francisco Giants for organizational depth in a cost-cutting move. In order to fill the gap at third the team officially made Scott Brosius the player to be named later in a trade with the Oakland A's that had sent Kenny Rogers out of town shortly after the World Series. Rogers was a disappointment in the Bronx and after his ERA ballooned to well over 5.00 nobody was sad to see him go. On the other hand, Brosius was coming off a year in which he slashed a putrid .203/.259/.317 and was by all accounts the worst everyday hitter in the American League. So this trade, the first ever orchestrated by Billy Beane, was really just an exchange of one problem for another on both sides. Regardless, the Yankees' third base job was Brosius' to lose.
Maybe a change of scenery was all he needed because at 31 years old, Brosius resurrected his career in a big way in 1998. He hit .300/.371/.472 with 19 home runs and 98 RBI for the World Champion Yankees and even saved his best for last. After pacing the Yankees with his bat in the first two rounds of the playoffs he took home the World Series MVP trophy by batting .471 with two home runs in the Fall Classic against the Padres. While it may have been unexpected, an outburst like this shouldn't have been that surprising for a player that had hit .304/.393/.516 with 22 home runs as recently as 1996. For the next three years, Brosius provided steady power with enough base hits to stay respectable offensively, though he did have an off-year in 2000 mixed in there. On top of that his glove rated as well above average for his entire Yankee career, taking home a Gold Glove in 1999. Add it up and he was worth an average of about two WAR per year as a Yankee, which was probably more than they thought they were getting, and good enough to help the team win the pennant each year.
While the current version of the Yankees is in much different shape than the one that was steamrolling into 1998, Chase Headley's story is very similar to the one just told about Brosius. Headley had a breakout year in 2012, hitting 31 home runs, leading the National League in RBI and earning the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove at third base in the process. However, his offensive production quickly took a nosedive and by the middle of 2014 he had an ugly .229/.296/.355 slash line. At that point, the Yankees and Padres decided to swap struggling third basemen as Yangervis Solarte was sent to San Diego. After donning the pinstripes, Headley found his way again. Thanks to a little bit of power, a whole lot of patience, and his usual steady glove he was one of the few bright spots for the Yankees down the stretch last year. Just like Brosius, it shouldn't have been a surprise considering how well he played just two years prior.
Based on that audition, the Yankees are convinced that Headley has his career back on track and will now pay him $52 million over the next four years to stick around. Again, much like Brosius, that keeps him in New York through his age 34 season. Therefore, if he continues to do his best Brosius impression, Headley should be worth at least two WAR per year over the life of the contract. That might not seem like much for the money he's earning, but smart people have estimated that the market cost of a win this off-season is somewhere between $5 and $7 million. A free agent signing whose on-field production equals his salary in the long-run would be a welcome addition to this team, so if Headley really becomes Brosius 2.0, it's a smart move by the Yankees.
Last week, the Marlins were linked to both Ichiro Suzuki and Nate Schierholtz, as the fourth outfielder would ideally be left-handed and have the ability to come off the bench late in games. Baltimore and Toronto are also reportedly interested in Suzuki, while teams may be hesitant to consider Schierholtz because of an inconsistent offensive campaign in 2014.
The organization is pretty much exploring several left-handed hitters to handle backup outfield and pinch-hit roles. Andy Dirks, non-tendered by Detroit, and Will Venable of the Padres, in his final season of arbitration, also have drawn attention.
Although Suzuki and Schierholtz might be atop the Marlins' list because of their experience, the club has expressed interest in Venable since the end of the Winter Meetings. Venable, 32, posted a .224/.288/.325 batting line to complement eight home runs and 33 RBIs with in 146 games with San Diego last season. He will make close to $4.25 million in 2015, and he provides power from the left side of the plate, which is something Miami's lineup has lacked in recent years.
Venable also makes sense if Dan Haren was involved in a possible trade. Haren has made it clear he does not want to pitch in Miami, and as a result, the Marlins have been trying to trade him to a West Coast team. The Padres, despite their confidence in their rotation, would likely welcome the addition of Haren. However, for such an exchange to be realistic, the Marlins would have to be willing to send some form of financial compensation to San Diego, and to this point, it is still unclear if that is something the Marlins are open to doing.
While adding Venable would make sense, Dirks, 28, could prove to be a solid option too. His last full major league season came in 2013 with Detriot, when he posted a .256/.323/.363 line to complement nine home runs and 37 RBIs in 131 games. He has established himself as a solid left fielder, and would be a solid late defensive replacement.
With Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich all healthy and in the lineup, the Marlins have one of the best young outfields in all of baseball. A solid backup in case of an injury or inevitable offensive slump is necessary, and the Marlins appear to be interested in veteran players who have experience serving in such a capacity.
All that change in the offseason and the Padres should have narrowed the gap between them and the division leaders, right?
Last week, I brought up how the Padres have a bit of a projection problem. That despite making headlines in December and the ownership getting gooey praise from the local paper, the team does not appear any closer to contending than it has in year's past. Someone pointed out in the comments of that post that they would like to see how projections stack up against the rest of the division. Let's take a look using Steamer's WAR projections from Fangraphs.
This does not stack up well for the Padres. I think we all knew that even with the changes this offseason that the Padres would be underdogs to the Dodgers and the division contains the defending World Series champs, but the goal should have been to create a much smaller gap than the one above. Seventeen wins is not a good starting difference between them and the defending NL West champions. Baseball seasons are not won with projections, but they should provide a baseline for expectation. A starting point for understanding how much needs to go right for your team (or wrong for others) to see something special happen. This starting point should be quite disturbing to many.
A Dillon Gee trade appears to be just a matter of time at this point.
Dillon Gee is now on three National League West teams' radar, as the Rockies, Giants, and Padres are reportedly interested in acquiring the right-hander. The rumors come as the Mets' quest to trade a starter before the start of spring training continues.
Back at the Winter Meetings, there were plenty of talks about a potential Gee-to-Colorado deal, but they ultimately did not amount to anything. The trade chatter has picked up since last week, after Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reported that a three-team deal involving Gee had been in the works. The two other teams involved in that particular scenario, however, are not known.
The 28-year-old was serviceable in 2014, posting a 4.00 ERA, a 6.2 strikeouts-per-nine rate, and a 2.8 walks-per-nine rate in 137 innings of work. With the return of Matt Harvey and a trio of young pitching prospects waiting in the wings, Gee seems to be the odd man out in the Mets' crowded rotation. A trade is the most likely scenario at this point.
We've all been "patiently" awaiting information about Padres FanFest. With all that's been going on with the team and the ballpark, it's safe to say this year's FanFest may be the most anticipated in years. Just last week, many of us on Twitter were projecting the possibility of a combined Valentine's Day / GLB 10th Anniversary / FanFest weekend on February 14th, but we soon learned that the Padres were pushing back the date of FanFest in order to accomodate construction at Petco Park.
Well today the Padres announced the OFFICIAL date of FanFest: April 4th. So for all the out-of-town GLBers and Padres fans, you have a few more weeks to plan trips to sunny SD for the event. Maybe this will even coincide with some Spring Breaks for those who are in school (or have kids in school). FanFest will be free to the public, like always, but this year online pre-registration for the event is required to gain entry, so make sure to get on that early so you don't forget. Parking will also be free this year. The event will open at 9 a.m., unless you're a season ticket holder, in which case you will be able to get in an hour earlier.
Now this FanFest is going to be different from those of the past. Obviously the date is a change, as it will be following Spring Training rather than preceding it. It'll be much, much closer to Opening Day, which means we'll have a better idea of what our OD lineup will look like at FanFest. This also means there's a possibility of a lot more players being able to make appearances.
Secondly, there will be an exhibition game the day of FanFest at Petco Park. The Red Devils will take the field to face the Padres at 2:00 in the afternoon.
That aforementioned pre-registration for FanFest will allow you to secure an assigned seat for the exhibition game, so again, make sure to look out for pre-reg details.
With the exhibition game taking place and Opening Day not too far away, you're probably wondering if fans will still have access to the field for activities and such. According to the press release by the Padres, there will still be some on-field action for fans in the morning hours, prior to the game in the afternoon.
While there will be some changes to the layout and schedule from years past, Padres FanFest presented by State Farm will feature many of the activities fans have come to love about the event, including player, coach and alumni autograph opportunities, the Padres Foundation Garage Sale, on-field activities and interactive forums. Field access will be limited to the morning hours of the event, in order to accommodate preparation for the exhibition game.
Now, in case you've never met me (Hi, I'm jodes!) or if you've ever wondered what the numbers at the end of my username mean, they actually represent my birthday on April 5th. So you can just imagine how excited I got when I saw the announcement about FanFest and my wish came true today.
Jesse Agler was also born on 04/05, and former fellow Padres blogger and GLBer, RJsFro, was born on the 3rd, so it'll just be a whole big weekend of celebrations!
The Marlins are set to employ what may be one of the best outfields in baseball in 2015, as well as one of the youngest, with all three of its members between the ages of 23 and 25. Christian Yelich will play left, with Marcell Ozuna in center and All-Star slugger Giancarlo Stanton manning right field. The club is currently slated to use 26-year-old Austin Wates, who has yet to play in the majors, as its reserve outfielder, making the necessity of an upgrade evident.
The 28-year-old Dirks did not make an appearance in the majors in 2014, missing a majority of the season with a lower back issue. He was claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays in late October, but the club non-tendered him in December, effectively making him a free agent. A solid defensive left fielder, Dirks is a .276/.332/.413 (101 OPS+) hitter in 1,063 major league plate appearances with the Tigers from 2011 to 2013.
With the Padres loading up on outfielders this winter, Venable seems to have become expendable. The 32-year-old can play all three outfield positions and owns a 106 OPS+ and 12.4 WAR in seven major league seasons. He hit a career-worst .224/.288/.325 in 2014, but could be viewed as a reasonable bounce-back candidate, as he had just one season with a below-average OPS+ (99 in 2011) entering the year. He is also relatively low-risk, being eligible for free agency next offseason.
The 30-year-old Schierholtz seems to fit the Marlins' search parameters quite well, as someone with a heavy platoon split favored towards right-handers (.720 career OPS against righties, .651 against southpaws) and above-average defensive skills (he has been a +11 defender in right over the past three year). Ichiro, meanwhile, could be an ideal veteran option who can still provide value on the basepaths, as well as decent defense in right field.
The list is still topped by Jose Peraza but several new players who were picked up via trade this winter highlight the Top 20.
Four of the Braves' current Top 10 prospects have been brought in through offseason trades. The Braves have traded away two close-to-the-big-leagues-but lower-ceiling prospects in Kyle Kubitza and Chasen Shreve and have brought in prospects who are further away but have a better chance of being impact players.
Its possible that last year's everyday catcher Evan Gattis could still be dealt but its looking more and more likely that he will be in left field for the Braves to start the 2015 season. MLB.com's Mark Bowman examines Gattis' situation in his latest mailbag.
If Gattis distances himself from this past season's back injury and remains healthy, there is a chance he could compile approximately 200 more plate appearances in 2015 and potentially have a greater impact on the club's offensive output. But if his offense doesn't compensate for his defensive limitations, there would be reason to second-guess the decision to keep him in Atlanta.
When the Braves traded for Ricardo Sanchez some fans had to wonder what was the catch. Sanchez was the Angels No. 3 prospect and Atlanta was able to get him for what amounted essentially to spare parts. The AJC's David O'Brien explains.
Not to worry, Braves fans. He's not recovering from TJ surgery and his stock had not slipped. The Angels did it because they were trading from a position of strength and depth - nine of their top 10 prospects were pitchers before the deal - and were looking to acquire a third baseman who might be ready to step in a year from now if David Freese leaves as a free agent after 2015.
Fresh off a trio of bold impact moves to rework their entire outfield and the middle of their lineup, the aggressive Padres are still said to be alive for another potential blockbuster, this one involving Philly's ace left-hander Cole Hamels -- although, others teams also are in the mix, and ultimately it isn't known exactly how likely San Diego is to land Hamels, a hometown hero from San Diego.
Now Jon Heyman is saying that Wil Myers is no longer involved the trade discussion but the Padres remain favorites for landing Hamels if they put together a package of their best prospects.
The more likely scenario would have San Diego sending a prospect package to Philly. The Padres have managed to keep most of their highest rated prospects even after all their many trades, with the top trio of outfielder Hunter Renfroe, pitcher Matt Wisler and catcher Austin Hedges seemingly on everyone's wish list.
The question remains, are the Padres going for broke this season? Will they be competitive enough to trade away their future? Personally I don't think so but I've got to agree with @ParkAtThePark, if they really think this is their year then no one is untouchable.
If you're a believer in this year, then there are no minor league untouchables.
At age 21, Lopez is still subject to the international bonus pool rules that make his deal of the minor league variety, though he will receive an invite to big league Spring Training. While the deal is still pending a physical, it seems likely to top Roberto Baldoquin's record set earlier this month for the highest bonus ever received by a player subject to bonus pool rules.
Per Badler, Lopez possesses a fastball that touches the mid-90's, to go along with a projectable 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame. During his last season in Cuba's Serie Nacional, Lopez posted a 3.12 ERA with 28 strikeouts and 11 walks in 49 innings pitched. Badler expects Lopez to start out in A-ball.
Of course, the Diamondbacks are quite high on Lopez, as general manager Dave Stewart tells The Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro that the club feels "that he's capable of competing right now for a spot in [their] rotation." Stewart also regards Lopez as a potential first overall pick kind of talent, noting that "with [the Diamondbacks] also having the first pick in the draft, it's [now] almost like [they] get two first picks."
For the Diamondbacks, there are some negative ramifications for their expenditure. Since Lopez's bonus handily exceeds Arizona's pool allotment, the club will now be forced to pay a 100% overage on the amount they have gone over the pool, while also losing the right to give out any bonuses worth more than $300,000 over the next two July 2 signing periods. The D-backs are already set to have baseball's highest bonus pool next period, and with the team likely headed for another losing season, they could be forfeiting a pair of potentially fruitful signing periods.
There have been many changes to the roster this season and the inquisitive want to know what the lineup should look like. The place to start is with the leadoff hitter.
The Padres seems like they are constantly making due without a good leadoff hitter. In 2013 Everth Cabrera staked his claim before getting busted for PEDs and could not make it work after that. Before that, Cameron Maybin and Will Venable had their moments, but didn't hold up. Jody Gerut had a fine 2008. Dave Roberts had a nice two year run in 2005-2006. That's the most consistency you can find in the Petco Park era. So with all this offseason change, is there anyone that might be able to grab hold of that top spot?
Last July, Fangraphs did an article where they found a simple stat that could identify leadoff hitters. The idea being that you could eschew power and ignore speed when looking for the top-of-the-order guy. Power can come later in the lineup and once you minimize that skill you should be left with guys that get on base and were pretty likely to have some speed to help them accomplish that. If you read the article, the results are pretty good. The top leadoff guys in history bubble up. The easy calculation is OBP - ISO. Or OBP - (SLG - Batting Average) if you don't know what ISO is. The author called it Leadoff Rating or LOR. Here are three tables showing who could do best at that stat. The first uses Steamer projections, the second uses ZiPS projections (both from Fangraphs) and the third uses just 2014 numbers.
Now that we've seen the numbers for the first time you can see the relative scale for the current Padres, but there's no context as to how good they are. Let's compare to the greatest Padre of all time. Tony Gwynn could bat anywhere in the lineup, but I think all of us would recognize that his skills worked great in the leadoff spot (even if that might not have been the best spot for him on a given team). His career number for this would be .267. One of the best of all time. Hall of Fame leadoff hitter Rickey Henderson tallied .261. Last year White leadoff hitter Adam Eaton put up .261 and Marlins leadoff hitter Christian Yelich accumulated a .244.
By comparison, Steamer projections give us Yangervis Solarte as the best option with only a .202. That is less than ideal both from a numerical component and also because Solarte is not the favorite to be a starter on opening day. The highest ranked likely starter is Yonder Alonso and his LOR is less that .2, which I would call the minimum necessary to be an acceptable option.
2015 ZiPS Projections
Player
AVG
OBP
SLG
LOR
Yangervis Solarte
0.26
0.316
0.358
0.218
Yonder Alonso
0.266
0.326
0.398
0.194
Clint Barmes
0.226
0.277
0.31
0.193
Derek Norris
0.237
0.334
0.38
0.191
Abraham Almonte
0.244
0.301
0.359
0.186
Cameron Maybin
0.239
0.299
0.352
0.186
Alexi Amarista
0.245
0.285
0.346
0.184
Taylor Lindsey
0.25
0.303
0.376
0.177
Cory Spangenberg
0.24
0.278
0.342
0.176
Matt Kemp
0.271
0.335
0.435
0.171
Wil Myers
0.267
0.335
0.433
0.169
Tim Federowicz
0.234
0.29
0.359
0.165
Justin Upton
0.258
0.342
0.442
0.158
Rymer Liriano
0.218
0.275
0.335
0.158
Will Venable
0.242
0.298
0.385
0.155
Alex Dickerson
0.245
0.289
0.379
0.155
Carlos Quentin
0.242
0.337
0.432
0.147
Will Middlebrooks
0.235
0.282
0.373
0.144
Jedd Gyorko
0.239
0.299
0.397
0.141
Tommy Medica
0.234
0.302
0.411
0.125
ZiPS gives Solarte a bit of a boost it is starting to feel like maybe he should get the 3B job just so that the Padres have a decent leadoff hitter. Again Alonso comes in 2nd, but is a little closer to the .200 line. Clint Barmes makes himself known in the conversation for the first time here.
2014 Actual Stats
Name
AVG
OBP
SLG
LOR
Clint Barmes
0.245
0.328
0.294
0.279
Yangervis Solarte
0.267
0.336
0.355
0.248
Rymer Liriano
0.22
0.289
0.266
0.243
Derek Norris
0.27
0.361
0.403
0.228
Alexi Amarista
0.239
0.286
0.314
0.211
Wil Myers
0.222
0.294
0.32
0.196
Cameron Maybin
0.235
0.29
0.331
0.194
Abraham Almonte
0.265
0.305
0.378
0.192
Will Venable
0.224
0.288
0.325
0.187
Will Middlebrooks
0.191
0.256
0.265
0.182
Jedd Gyorko
0.21
0.28
0.333
0.157
Cory Spangenberg
0.29
0.313
0.452
0.151
Carlos Quentin
0.177
0.284
0.315
0.146
Yonder Alonso
0.24
0.285
0.397
0.128
Matt Kemp
0.287
0.346
0.506
0.127
Justin Upton
0.27
0.342
0.491
0.121
Tommy Medica
0.233
0.286
0.408
0.111
Tim Federowicz
0.113
0.158
0.197
0.074
Oh, hello again Mr. Barmes. The projections don't believe that Barmes will be able to hit for as high of a batting average in 2015 as he did in 2014, but somehow hit for more power. 2014 was a down year for the aging Barmes, but a repeat could make him an okay leadoff guy. Solarte also looks better when you consider what he did in his only major league season. Rymer Liriano only ranks high because his power did not translate in his limited debut. Derek Norris pops up as an interesting candidate. He is the highest ranked player on here who actually has a likely starting job.
It sure is nice when recently written topics come up again almost immediately. Earlier on Wednesday, I wrote about the win-now teams, noting that the Astros were slowly creeping toward the right (and and right) side of the scale. Last week, I wrote about the baffling Braves and their baffling offseason.
Today, then, let's explore the even-more-win-now Astros and the dear-goodness-why Braves, who made a trade. The Braves got three prospects. The Astros got Evan Gattis. This means it's time to review the deal instantly, because there's no way this snap judgement could be wrong.
Starting with the Astros perspective:
Houston Astros
They have a major league roster. An honest-to-goodness major league roster. They have a pitching staff filled with pitchers that other teams would actually want. They have a lineup filled with hitters that other teams would actually want. This is a marked difference, and for all the nonsense that they've been through (or put others through) when it comes to how they evaluate players and draft picks, they're on the right track.
That doesn't mean they're a win-now team, though. Not that close. Which means we're right to question their decision to trade three prospects for a major league player. More than that, a major league player with some easily identifiable flaws and warts. What are they thinking?
First, it's easy to think about Gattis as a veteran, a player who isn't going to change until he slowly gets worse. But he's almost closer to a prospect than a veteran. He's not a free agent for four years, and he's still making close to the minimum for next season. And while he's 28 right now, there's an asterisk that goes along with that. He's an unusual 28. He didn't reach the low minors until he was 23 because he left baseball completely at 19, before returning to D-II college ball years later. It's not out of the question that he continues following an atypical development curve.
Second, the deal allows the Astros to deal Dexter Fowler for prospects. Fowler is a free agent after the season. Long-term solution in, short-term concern out. Or if the Astros are getting bold, it'll allow them to deal Jason Castro for even better prospects.
The Astros are closer than you might think. The early returns from the FanGraphs projected standings have the Astros being comparable to teams like the Brewers, White Sox, and Padres -- teams that are thinking, hoping, praying they're contenders in 2015. That's before the Gattis deal.
It doesn't have to be a win-now deal, though. Power is rare; the Astros just got power. The Astros didn't have a long-term solution for left field; now they do. The prospects might pan out, but I'll take the under on any of them having a career as good as Gattis, especially over the next four years.
Atlanta Braves
Oh, Braves. You're supposed to progress over the decades like Jared Leto in My So Called Life, getting more mature and handsome every year. Not Leto in Requiem for a Dream. What happened to you?
I don't mind the decision to rebuild. If the Braves wanted to deal expiring contracts like Jason Heyward and Justin Upton for prospects, move the team's window up a couple years once they realized they weren't going to sign the pair, that makes sense. If they wanted to take it a step further and Billy Beane a player away when he was still cheap, following the better-a-year-too-early philosophy that tends to bring back better prospects, that would have been a bold, understandable decision. All-in on the rebuild.
Nick Markakis, though.
The Markakis deal is the one that will wake me up confused at night, even though I don't root for any of the teams involved.
What is ... why did ... the reasoning makes me ... I don't get it. Make the argument for Markasis on the Braves now. Pick any angle. Jump to as many conclusions as you need. Justify $44 million for an average outfielder who is unlikely to do anything but decline over the life of his deal on a team that just traded away an outfield. An entire outfield. They dealt away just about the only power available on the trade market, and they did it with a focus on the distant future more than the near future.
Explain that deal now. Before you answer, remember the spinal fusion surgery!
The Braves were in a tough spot because they gave ill-advised deals to Dan Uggla, B.J. Upton, and Chris Johnson. Why another one, right before the rebuild? The Markakis deal is the Doug Fister trade of the 2014/2015 offseason, the one that will wake me up confused at night, even though I don't root for any of the teams involved.
As for the prospects, well, they might work out unless they don't, and the Braves have a pretty good track record in that regard. Michael Foltynewicz is a big arm, a prototypical righty who started the 2014 season as one of the top-100 prospects in baseball. He had a rough year, but if the Braves see the same glimmer in his arm, I'm not going to argue. Andrew Thurman is less of a known quantity, but again, I'll trust the Braves when it comes to pitching. Rio Ruiz is young for his league, and the doubles hint at burgeoning power. He could be the star of the deal in four years.
In this kind of deal, it's foolish to review the prospects as if you're a seer, a brilliant person who is clearly too smart to work for a baseball team. The Braves see potential, and they've been good at realizing that potential over the last year or 20. But it's not too early to wonder why they got a 31-year-old outfielder to win now at market prices, when they were planning to blow the danged thing up and go on a mini-rebuild.
The Astros got better, possibly at the expense of the future. The Braves possibly improved their ability to contend in the future, but at the expense of the present. The Astros' decision doesn't make sense until you take a closer look. The Braves' decision almost makes sense until you take a closer look at their offseason. The two teams aren't exactly ships passing in the night -- don't forget the projectable talent the Braves still have locked up long term -- but our abilities to figure out the moves of either team are trending in different directions.
Atlanta will receive three prospects from Houston in the deal.
Houston has been seeking outfield help, and according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Astros brought Braves backstop Evan Gattis in for a physical on Wednesday afternoon. Nightengale was told of the physical by a person close to Gattis, and after the physical the Braves agreed to send Gattis to Houston in exchange for three prospects.
Gattis, 28, posted a .263/.317/.493 batting line in 108 games with the Braves in 2014. He did strike out 97 times, and could be a defensive liability if he is not asked to catch. Gattis is the third notable Atlanta player to be dealt, joining Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, who were traded to the Cardinals and Padres, respectively.
In just a pair of full major league seasons, Gattis has established himself as a power threat. He posted 22 home runs last season and 21 in 2013. With the Braves officially adding A.J. Pierzynski, Gattis was expected to be asked to move to the outfield.
Gattis is a versatile piece, and will likely see time in left field for the Astros. Los Angeles sent catcher Hank Conger to Houston, but the Astros have consistently been looking to trade Jason Castro. Gattis adds power to a Houston outfield that has lacked it at times, most notably in left field. Houston is confident in a lineup that features Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Chris Carter, and is relying on a young pitching staff. Gattis can also serve as the club's designated hitter.
Although they lost Gattis, the Braves may see Ruiz as their future starting third baseman. Ruiz posted a .293/.387/.436 batting line with Houston's Single-A affiliate in 2014.
Here is the working research list of San Diego Padres prospects. With all the roster-shuffling and trading this winter it looks a lot different than it would have four months ago. I think I got everyone important here. There are 39 Padres plus other guys that need to be written up and transferred to other systems.
