Was that a thing? What a strange thing.

Take out a piece of paper. Make a list. Number it one through 30. Then start listing the reasons that each team and fan base have to loathe Bud Selig.

1. A's - The Mystery of the Blue Ribbon Relocation Committee
2. Orioles - The conspiracy that actually exists
3. Padres - Selig Hall of Fame Plaza
4. Marlins - Aiding and abetting Jeffrey Loria
5. Expos - :(

I'm not going to pretend I know the reason for all 30 teams, but they exist. It's almost a physical law that they have to. Even though Selig helped the Giants stay in San Francisco, my thoughts about the man would always trend toward the negative side. Hank Aaron is the true home run king, the strike, the strike ruining Matt Williams's home run chase, the All-Star Game tie, the Wild Card, the Wild Card coming a year too late for my team, the convenient come-to-Jesus moment with steroids once the backlash was raging, allowing A.J. Pierzynski to exist ... it's a lengthy, lengthy list.

And yet, there's no question that everything is different as Selig steps down. I used to get so angry about Selig. So very angry. His face would appear on my TV, and my brow would furrow. When he talked, my brain sprouted neural arms and either a) made a wanking motion or b) shook a tiny fist at the sky. He was the worst, a poison, a villain. He was the death of baseball, the worst that America had to offer, an amalgam of oligarchy and plutocracy with one finger up its nose and another held upright, pointed at you.

For the life of me, I can't remember why he made me so angry.

I can read the Wikipedia page. The strike was the worst. Looking the other way for Sosa/McGwire was understandable; pretending that he had no idea was the worst. There were substantial changes to the structure of the postseason, and then there were more. Those are all bullet points in a memorandum titled "Check out what this jerk is doing to the game you love."

That memorandum looks like it's written in a foreign language now. I used to hate Bud Selig, but for the last few years, he's been a mascot. He's Owner P. Lurch, seven feet tall and made of foam, and he's there whenever there's a draft, a record being broken, a World Series trophy presentation. There's no hate. There's no loathing. It's just, hey, look, there that guy is again.

I know that guy! Shoot a shirt at me from your t-shirt gun, Owner P. Lurch!

This isn't the case for everyone, I realize. A's fans still have the absolute right to be appalled and disgusted at how the territorial rights situation was handled. They were put on hold six years ago, the hold music was Hoobastank, and Selig climbed out the bathroom window. For me, though, the anger is gone. It's been gone for years. I'm not sure where the tipping point was. Possibly a few years ago, when the NHL was in the middle of an ugly lockout, and several smart people told me, unequivocally, that Selig was the best commissioner of any of the four North American sports, and it wasn't close. Things can be worse, it finally registered. Look at the bozo leading the NFL and imagine what baseball would be like if Selig wasn't even smart enough to be cunning. Brrr.

Selig is smart. He was very, very good at what he wanted to do, which is make money for the owners. He helped get so many stadiums get built, most of them using public money, that one of the shiniest new stadiums when he took over as acting commissioner, Rogers Centre, is now the seventh-oldest stadium in baseball. Three or four of the older stadiums are classics that their teams want to keep, which means there are just two or three teams that could realistically want a new ballpark within the next 10 years.

There's money in the sport. Baseball hit the ball out of the park (baseball term) with MLB.tv and MLB Advanced Media, perspiring liquid cash despite ludicrous blackout rules. Attendance is booming. For all the talk about the A's and their desperate need for a new stadium, note that they drew almost twice as much as the A's and Giants did combined 40 years ago.

And that's all why Selig doesn't inspire the rage and ire anymore, at least in one baseball nerd. Everyone is happy with their cartoonish sacks of cash. Everyone is content. Everyone is quiet. There's no acrimony, at least not like we're accustomed to. We all got used to the Wild Card and interleague play. The last CBA came together quickly and quietly, as if it were a formality. Steroids are finally the third, fourth, or 24th thing people think of when they hear the word "baseball," not the first. Money kind of makes everything go away.

The only unexplained storyline in the series finale is a new stadium for Oakland, and that's a big deal. It's not something that concerns the average baseball fan unless it's in their backyard, though. Selig leaves the sport in peace and with a Scrooge McDuck vault for the owners to dive in. How do you rage at that? What's the point? Were we really so mad about the All-Star Game tie once upon a time? And what was that thing ... you know ... when the players didn't play the games and the World Series didn't happen ... was that real?

No, I don't remember what it felt like to be so angry at Bud Selig. The reasons are easy to look up, but the feelings are distant, a high school relationship between people with funny haircuts that seems like it happened to someone else. The incoming commissioner, Rob Manfred, doesn't mean a thing to me yet. A decade or two ago, a new commissioner would have been someone to study, a cause for tentative celebration. Now, though, he's the guy in charge of a finely tuned machine. The machine is a robot that spits out money and dances for our amusement, and look at the little feller go.

SB Nation presents: The best and worst of Bud Selig's legacy

When Selig started, I wanted him to stop screwing up. If baseball fans could yell one thing at him over the years, that would be it. "Hey, Selig, stop screwing up." Yet, somehow, he's leaving baseball in a spot where the only possible thing to yell at the next guy is "Hey, don't screw it up."  Selig's run was an imperfect, flawed, maddening era. The strike really was a disgrace, and the nicest thing you can say about the Steroid Era is that it was completely bungled for several years. Here's Selig leaving, though, and it's going to be almost impossible for the next guy to leave the sport in better shape than he found it.

Not sure how that happened. Not sure when everything changed. But it turned out that Selig didn't fly the plane into the mountain. He landed safely and gave you something out of the SkyMall catalog for free. I swear the plane was upside-down at one point.

Best of luck to Commissioner Manfred, then. Get the A's a new stadium. Help the Rays out. Stop that stupid homefield advantage thing with the All-Star Game. Pay the minor leaguers more and figure out a way to feed them better. Mostly, though, don't touch anything. Turns out that almost everything is working just fine.

Both Kemp and Upton were ranked 9th in their respective positions in MLB Network's Top 10 Right Now! series.

MLB Network is ranking the best MLB players, by position, going into the 2015 season with their Top 10 Right Now! series. Two of the newest Padres have made the cut in their respective positions.

Matt Kemp was ranked ninth best right fielder by MLB Network, however Cliff Floyd and Brian Kenny both put him even higher in their individual rankings. Cliff Floyd placed him all the way up in the number 3 spot, pointing at his opposite field power (when healthy) as a major factor. And if Kemp can steal some bases, Floyd says, "then he changes the game; then he adds another dimension to the San Diego Padres lineup that they didn't have." Shots fired.

Meanwhile, Justin Upton ranked ninth among the left fielders. And like Kemp, the individual rankings put him even higher. Byrnes really gave Upton some love, placing him all the way up in the 2 spot, though he followed by saying any of his top 5 or 6 players could be interchangeable. Such a copout.

When was the last time the Padres had even one guy, let alone multiple players, who ranked so universally high among their MLB peers? Surely not in recent years. Of course, like any preseason rankings/projections, these are not meant to predict performance in 2015. But they do give us a good idea of where we can place our expectations for our players and what we can potentially look forward to in the upcoming season.

I was very saddened to hear about the passing of the great Ernie Banks yesterday. Us Padres fans can certainly relate to the Cubs faithful in this time of grief; Banks and Tony Gwynn were both Hall of Famers on and off the field who meant the world to their fans, and were great ambassadors for their teams and cities long after retiring.

Mr. Cub's career briefly overlapped with the existence of the major league Padres, from 1969 through '71. In that time he played in just 16 games versus the Padres, fewer than he played against any other team. That stands to reason, since the Montreal Expos, who entered the National League the same year the Padres did, were in the same division as the Cubs.

Of those 16 games, 12 were played in 1969, his last year as an everyday player.

While those numbers are fluffed up by small sample size in addition to the obvious aspect of an expansion team not having the greatest collection of arms, the results are still impressive, especially when you consider Banks was in his decline phase. His BA, OBP, and SLG against the Padres are each his highs against any team, and the convenience of him playing just 16 games against the club is that you can just pop a zero at the end of each of his counting stats to see how it would translate over a full season (with two games off, but close enough).

After starring on the Cuban national team in 2009, infielder Hector Olivera has popped up on plenty of radars. Since defecting from Cuba Olivera has showed up to the Dominican Republic in hopes of signing to a major league team.

Back in 2009, Cuban infielder Hector Olivera was a star for his Cuban national team, being ranked among players like Yeonis Cespedes and Aroldis Chapman. He has posted a .341/.462/.626 in 214 plate appearances with 17 home runs and 44 walks. He also was fourth in the Cuban league in OBP.

Since then he he posted a solid .316/.412/.474 in his 2013-2014 season with about 273 plate appearances in Santiago de Cuba, a ways away from Havana, after missing the entire 2012-2013 season due to a blood flow problem in his left bicep. This return in 13-14 put him back on track, and as of September of last year has defected from the country in hopes for playing on a major league team.

Despite the difficult-to-reach Cuban medical records, it appears that all of his DL time was due to his bicep issue, and after being cleared to play has shown that he's still very capable with a bat. So his Dominican Republic showcase in the middle of the week was guarantee to draw a good crowd. What it ended up drawing was over 200 scouts.

More than 200 scouts attended workout for Hector Olivera last week in DR. SFG, SD, TX, ATL, NYY among teams showing strong interest. #Cuba

— Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) January 24, 2015

Olivera is pegged as a second baseman, though interestingly back in the 2008 Beijing Olympics he played first base in their silver medal placement. Hector aligns with almost all of Preller's biggest interests in the offseason thus far; showing off a big bat while being a direct offensive upgrade to potential positions in much need of one. While Gyorko's low, low ranking in OBP is a target, Olivera's flexibility to first base coupled with his sensitive DL history might prove to be a more interesting slot.

Olivera showing oppo strength back in 2009 against South Africa. The guy needs some MLB-quality footage.

He turns 30 early this year, and posts at around 6'2" 220 lbs. His citizenship still has to be cleared in order to be able to even sign with the Padres, but the interest in him remains with the Friars yet to string together a confident infield offensive force.

The free-agent right-hander just put up one of the strangest seasons ever. Does he have any chance of repeating it?

Chris Young is weird, man. He's a 35-year-old junkballer with an injury record longer than Mark Prior's*, and he's accrued more than a thousand big-league innings with results much better than his peripherals. Continuing the latter trend, his 2014 season had something going for it that no other season did.

* - Not really, but, y'know, hyperbole.

First, though, some background. Drafted by the Pirates in 2000, he bounced around the minors for a few years before cracking the show with Texas in 2004. Over the next two campaigns, he compiled 201.0 innings, with a 94 ERA- and a 102 xFIP-; the latter figure made it appear that he'd allow more runs in the seasons to come.

Of course, appearances can deceive. Following a move to San Diego (in one of Jon Daniels's more ill-advised trades), Young broke out: Across 2006 and 2007, his 81 ERA- ranked 15th in the majors. Even more impressive, he posted that despite similarly-subpar peripherals -- his 101 xFIP- for the Padres didn't differ much from his mark with the Rangers. For those 352.1 innings, he was on top of the world.

Then it all fell apart. Over the next six years, Young compiled a combined 337.1 innings, with a mediocre 104 ERA- and a hideous 124 xFIP-. With injuries and aging taking their toll, he didn't seem to be anything more than a guy with a decent history of overperformance. When Seattle inked him last March, no one expected much.

Then came the season itself, in which things got really weird. Always a fly ball pitcher, Young took that to the extreme last year: His 2014 fly ball rate of 58.7% beat those of every other qualifier since 2002. (Incidentally, his aforementioned 2006 and 2007 seasons occupy the second and third places, respectively, on that list.) Together with a plummeting strikeout rate and a walk rate that remained poor, this made him the worst pitcher since 2002 by park-adjusted xFIP.

But that's only half the story. Young's trend of out-pitching his xFIP also continued, to an unprecedented extent: Somehow, he had an above-average ERA. Yes, that's right -- despite the worst peripherals in recent history, he allowed 67 earned runs in 165.0 innings, giving him an ERA 1% better than the major-league average.

That's incredibly uncommon, in case you didn't guess. (For the sake of comparison, we'll use FIP, since Young didn't have a lucky HR/FB% in 2014.) In the 144 years for which we have data, 6,042 qualifying pitcher seasons have had a better-than-average ERA. Of those, only three have had an FIP 30% worse than average:

Click here for the complete leaderboard.

The last guy to do what Young just did was born before the Civil War. So, yeah, it was a weird season.

Can it happen again? Let's look to history. First, we'll get a sample of some similar campaigns. A roughly average ERA -- within, say, 5% of league average -- along with a decidedly below-average FIP -- at least 20% worse than the league-wide mark -- will work. Since 1871, those conditions have occurred 44 times; below, you'll see all of them, along with the following season:

Some of these men didn't pitch at all in the subsequent season; others didn't do much with the time they saw. But of those who managed to gut it out, the overperformance remained. The average ERA- and FIP- for the 22 that qualified in the next campaign were 95 and 110, respectively.

So that gives some hope to Young -- while he probably won't repeat 2014, he could have a decent season. Then again, this analysis doesn't take one critical thing into account: age. Young turned 35 last May, and by this point in a pitcher's life, they can implode at any time, for any reason.

With that in mind, let's look at another sample, one that looks upon Young's body of work. We'll take pitchers with at least 1,000 innings before age 36, with ERAs between 90 and 100 and FIPs between 105 and 115. (Young's career marks in those regards sit at 93 and 109, respectively.) Below, you'll find the 39 men who fit this profile, as well as their career outputs from 36 onward:

This sample kills a lot of the optimism of the first one. Of the 37 who could have pitched more, only 11 did, and they performed poorly.  A 132 ERA- and a 120 FIP- doesn't keep you around for long. (Obviously, Hough's the exception here, but other circumstances allowed him to remain great.) By this test, Young -- and Jeremy Guthrie I suppose -- doesn't have much of a future.

What does all of this mean for Young? Because he's defied expectations for as long as he has, we can probably say he's a true-talent overachiever. But he's still old, and he could fall off the cliff at any time. Steamer sure thinks he will -- it projects a 5.21 ERA and a 5.71 FIP, driven chiefly by that astronomical home run rate. While I don't see him regressing that much, I doubt he'll maintain what he did last year.

Moreover, in order for him to do anything, he'll have to join a team. At the time of this writing, he's still a free agent. Maybe the fact that no one's signed him yet testifies to the changingmarket -- teams no longer value results as much as peripherals. Or maybe an old, injury-prone hurler doesn't appeal to them all that much.

Whatever the case may be, it'll be interesting to watch what happens to Young this year. He's had an odd career, and 2014 only represented another chapter in it. In 2015, the story might continue, or it might end; we'll have to see.

. . .

All data courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

Ryan Romano is an editor for Beyond the Box Score. He also writes about the Orioles on Camden Depot and on Camden Chat that one time. Follow him on Twitter at @triple_r_ if you enjoy angry tweets about Maryland sports.

Let's take it back to April of 2014. It's the tenth game of the season and our Padres are off to an unimpressive yet not-too-surprising 3-6 start.

Coming off a series loss against the Indians, we're hoping faithful Andrew Cashner can get a win streak going for us and kick off a ten-game homestand in the win column. Cashner is still winless (0-1) going into his third start of the season despite keeping opponents to only three runs over his first two outings. The Padres haven't given him much in the form of run support. Actually, they've given him nothing. But hopefully all of that is about to change as they take on former Friar Brad Ausmus and his Tigers.

Ausmus sends Rick Porcello to the mound to face Cash. Porcello is only on his second start of the season, and his first went swimmingly as he kept the Orioles to one run in 6 2/3 innings of work. The Padres have a better chance if they can get to Detroit's bullpen, who have struggled early in the season.

It's been four seasons since these teams have faced each other, but Detroit has always seemed to get the better of San Diego, winning seven of the last nine games between the two. But hopefully Cashner and co. can come together and pull off this home victory in convincing fashion.

Here's how the boys are set to lineup against the Tigers:

#Padres vs. Tigers tonight at 7:10pmPT to start a 3 game weekend series and 10-game homestand. #Cash on the mound. pic.twitter.com/uXICYBl6lJ

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) April 11, 2014

GO FRIARS!! KEEP THE FAITH!!

Honest impressions of two local businesses pandering to the taste buds of San Diego and its Padres fans.

The collaboration between Gwynn's Gourmet Food Truck and Alesmith's .394 pale ale, both named in honor of the San Diego icon, made a lot of sense. San Diego loves its beer, Tony Gwynn loved his food. Especially his wife Alicia's fried chicken. As far as a Gwynn-themed beer, it's funny to imagine a Tony alcohol when for his improvised bachelor party he was downing shots of only Sprite and water.

The atmosphere of Alesmith, located right off Miramar Rd, gives off an inviting vibe. It felt like a classic, hand-built establishment with a modest Padres tint to it. The door is stamped with a fat orange interlocked "SD" logo, and you can't make it two steps without coming across a swagger wall decal of an 85-90's era in-stance Gwynn. Coupled with a memorial plaque; it's clear that the .394 name is less about branding and more about honoring.

All of the .394 merchandise is nicely grouped together. With refillable growlers going for $8 ($25 filled), 6 packs with .394 branding at about $13, a .394 pint glass, and Gwynn's Gourmet BBQ Sauce. You can also grab one of the great looking .394 baseball shirts.

The general consensus of .394 is that it's pretty great. Most of us at Gaslamp Ball have had the chance to enjoy it at the last Padres Beerfest. This time around I didn't have the cash to sample the rest of Alesmith's long list of on-top quality beer, but being that this brewing center is directly across the street from my office I'll have countless opportunities. Jodes and I did snag some of those growlers, though.

For Saturday, January 24th, Alesmith teamed up with the Gwynn food truck for a food and beer event. There was the standard indoor brewery seating along with a path towards the connecting parking lot with a few large benches and tables for people to load up their pints and sample trays of beer next to their food. The two grub options included the more obvious choice of the Gwynn truck, and the Mastiff Sausage Company truck parked next to it.

Motivated by jbox's "strike out" review of his encounter with Gwynn's Gourmet Food, jodes and I felt obligated to give the menu a second chance. Looking to avoid the apparent "sawdust" tasting item that traumatized jbox we both decided to see if the food truck maybe specialized in something else, that maybe jbox found the weak link.

daveysapien's impression:

Gwynn Dog

Topped with southern style cha cha (chow-chow) and grilled onions

My first impression of any food truck is its menu. Having spent a good amount of time in Los Angeles throughout 2013-2014; I have a firm grasp on what a food truck is supposed to be. Unique, loaded items that you're not going to find just anywhere. A basket of fried chicken wings, buffalo wings, pulled pork sliders, bratwurst and hotdogs topped with peppers and onions, a cheeseburger and veggie burger. It felt like I was waiting in line at a sports event deciding what underwhelming food I was about to blow almost $10 on. Save the buffalo chicken french fry basket with blue cheese, everything felt super safe.

The fried chicken makes sense, Tony loved fried chicken without a doubt, but that same spirit felt scarce through the rest of the menu. After scanning a small printed paper list indecisively a few times I decided the best bet was going to be a Gwynn-titled item. The "Gwynn Dog", being topped with chow-chow (labeled as cha cha,) had to have a Southern-standard proportion. I immediately thought of the Postcard's Central American Soul Food truck I had tried while in LA. My expectations shot through the roof, hoping for a fat hot dog in a bulbous bun that would be absolutely murdered with that southern pickled relish, peppers, and onions.

What I got was this.

As soon as I opened the foam container and saw the awfully small amount of toppings I smirked a little, closed it, and glanced at jodes. I thought "Uh oh, jbox is going to end up being right." I grabbed a good amount of the Gwynn Gourmet BBQ sauce and went to sit and see what this hot dog was all about.

I'll have to point out that they (quite visibly) did not skimp on the french fries; peppered and salted, it's hard to mess up french fries. But it reminded me of store bought frozen fries that I've made at home an uncountable amount of times. The hot dog was suffering from the same problem as well. It tasted fine, just like a hot dog ought to taste like, but I've arrived at better-tasting hot dogs by just buying the top priced brand at the grocery store. The Gwynn BBQ sauce was its own unique creation, it was a great combination of sweet and spicy, but not enough to make me down a pound of average fries.

The almost-saving grace was the minimal amount of "cha cha" my poor hot dog was allowed to have. The chow chow that I've had has typically been more tangy, but the Gwynn's truck had a great sweet taste to it. It was the faded highlight of the otherwise dull meal that ended up totaling around $8. The drawback of having seen chow chow done a few different ways meant that this "cha cha" ended up looking like they grabbed some Heinz relish, jarred peppers and onions, mixed 'em together and pinched it off in the center of the hot dog. Like the current Padres uniforms, it lacked character.

For a better example: Postcard's Soul Food brisket, mac n cheese, and kale tacos or Peaches' Southern fried chicken burger are what I expect from a food truck. Having experienced these bursting meals from trucks between San Diego and Los Angeles; it seems like a food truck centered around a great man with a insatiable love for southern food would be a no-brainer. Take the attitude of The Greasy Wiener or Dogtown Dogs' menu for direct comparison.

What makes a food truck's wheels spin is a strong social media presence and your food generating positive word-of-mouth, something (in their important rookie year) I haven't seen from them yet. The lasting results of  the meal should not be one wishing they hadn't spent seven-plus dollars on a hot dog they could have gotten from a ballpark vendor; it should leave them craving more of your ridiculously tasty and unique food, and be willing to track you down across San Diego to have seconds.

The truck has a great brand, a good look, and a friendly staff. What it's lacking is an ambitious menu, food bursting with personality, and an experience that can successfully exist separate from event piggybacking. Gwynn's Gourmet Foods needs to dust off the VCR for some video analysis, take a lot more at-bats, and start showing more heart at the plate in order to live up to the legacy of Mr. Padre.

jodes0405's impression:

Cheeseburger Sliders.............................$8.00

There was no description on the menu, and in retrospect the Gwynn truck's cheeseburger sliders are just that: nondescript. Don't take that to mean they were bad, because they weren't. But they weren't anything special, which is kind of what you want out of food truck fare.

Upon first impression, I was confident that I had made a solid choice. It was a simple menu item; just bun, meat, cheese, and some grape tomatoes for garnish. The soft pretzel buns were a great little surprise, especially after seeing what Dave's hot dog came with. When I had placed my order, Dave poked fun at me for going the "safe" route, but we agreed after getting our food that the sliders, at least in looks, might have turned out to be the better choice.

But the real test, of course, was the taste. And I have to say the sliders didn't disappoint... but they didn't excite either. If you're going to have such a simple item on the menu, it needs to be outstanding in terms of flavor. The Gwynn truck sliders fell short in that regard. The pretzel buns were a nice choice, but the meat was just okay. The slider patties were a little dry and, along with the cheese, tasted like they had been sitting out for a while. I added some of that Gwynn barbecue sauce to one of the sliders, which helped make it a little less plain. But like Dave said, the food tasted like what you would expect from a normal concession stand at a ballpark. Not terrible, but not the kind of food truck item I would seek out.

Hopefully this is just a case of not wanting to play it safe with their menu as they're starting out, because I think with the attention the truck gets and the branding they have working in their favor, they could be a big hit. But overall, the experience seemed a little too "comfortable" to me, and stepping out of that comfort zone could go a long way for them.

Where you can find them

Alesmith Brewing Company

Located off Miramar Rd. at 9366 Cabot Drive in the back right corner of the building cluster. There's a small business-district parking lot that gets packed pretty easily during any events, with fair street parking if need be. Here's their Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram if you're into that sort of thing (beer.) Do yourself a favor and swing by Miramar the next time you're going up or down the I-5/I-15.

Gwynn's Gourmet Food Truck

The team will tweet and share where they're going to be parked and serving ahead of time. Here's their Twitter and Facebook, so keep an eye out for them so you can try their food and maybe prove us wrong one day. They're good about sharing new menu items (the Buffalo Fries with blue cheese crumbs look pretty wild,) and despite not meeting the standards of a pair of bloggers have put a lot of heart into starting up this food truck. The team was great and will work hard to give you a good experience.

We're looking forward to the day Gaslamp Ball'rs start tracking down the food truck together.

Will Yasmani Grandal be the next catcher to break out?

After 2007 first-round draft pick Devin Mesoraco launched 25 home runs to pace the catcher position in 2014, many will be on the lookout for that next catcher to break out. Yasmani Grandal, a 2010 first rounder, will be high on many lists.

We ranked the San Diego Padre turned Los Angeles Dodger as the No. 11 catcher in the Fake Teams Consensus Rankings released this morning, sandwiched between another former pair of first-round picks, Matt Wieters and Travis d'Arnaud. Grandal will be entering his age-26 season on a new team after the Padres and Dodgers completed an intra-division swap, sending Matt Kemp to a star-studded outfield that now includes Justin Upton and Wil Myers. I ranked Grandal as my No. 14 catcher, while six other writers had him inside the top 10.

In his final season in San Diego, Grandal slashed .225/.327/.401 with 15 home runs, 47 runs, 49 RBI and three steals in 443 plate appearances. All 15 of the switch-hitters home runs in 2014 came against right-handed pitchers, in which Grandal had a slash line of .241/.329/.452 and a 124 wRC+ (compared to .162/.323/.189 and a 62 wRC+ against LHP). Grandal did show some marked improvement in the second half, hitting .242 with a .365 OBP (up from a .210 BA and .299 OBP in the first half). Grandal underwent knee surgery last offseason, so it's possible that his first half was affected. An increase in his fly-ball rate from 28.2 percent to 38.1 percent last season is also good for future power projections. His previous high was 14 home runs in 105 games back in 2011 (in the minors).

More than a year removed from knee surgery, Grandal could slide inside the top 5 catching options. He demonstrated more power in the second half, slugging .440 with eight home runs, including four long balls in the month of September. An accomplished hitter in the minor leagues, he hit .291 over the final month of the season. Grandal had a 26 percent strikeout rate in 2014 (up from 16.7 percent), but still demonstrated good plate discipline with a 13.1 percent walk rate.

As Ray pointed out in the consensus ranks, which was the 13th highest walk rate among players with 400 or more plate appearances. I'd like to see the strikeout rate come down some, but his track record in the minor leagues as an accomplished hitter and a .310 hitter.

Steamer more or less projects Grandal to replicate his 2014 season with a slash of .241/.336/.401 with 13 home runs and 48 runs and 50 RBI in 446 plate appearances. I believe Grandal will top those numbers, with a slightly more favorable ballpark and a better lineup in Los Angeles from top to bottom. Steamer's numbers for Grandal are across 106 games, but we could see him approach 130. If everything falls right for Grandal, the switch-hitter has the ability to hit 20 home runs with more than 70 RBI. He's also someone to bump up in your personal ranks if playing in OBP leagues.

What all this talk about making rules about the infield shift could mean for the Padres.

Recently, new commissioner Rob Manfred made waves talking about a potential change to the rules to get rid of infield shifts. If you want a hot take on whether or not such a rule should be implemented then I recommend the SBNation piece: The stupidity of eliminating defensive shifts by Grant Brisbee. What I thought us over at little Gaslamp Ball could take a look at is how the shift impacted the Padres.

In September Steve Moyer over at the Wall Street Journal wrote an article where he had a ranking of each team based on how many hits they saved in 2014 by employing the shift:

The Padres rank just below the average by this metric, but an article by CBS Sports' Mike Axisa pointed out something interesting: the Padres saved a hit once per every 31.1 shifts, which ranked 6th among teams that actually saved hits by shifting. So by that shifts/hits-saved metric the Padres are shown to be pretty efficient at saving hits when they do shift. Maybe they should be shifting more.

On the other side of the ball, I can't find any data for 2014 on how Padres hitters were affected by shifts. There is some 2013 data that the Hardball Times times released in this handy google doc. I pulled out of a few of the names that either played for the Padres in 2013, will play for the Padres in 2015, did play for the Padres in 2014, but not in 2013 or were somehow Padres related and interesting to look at:

If you are having trouble reading this data, what you would expect to see is that if the shift was working the "BABIP w/ Shift On" column should be a lower number than both "BABIP w/o Shift On" and "BABIP". The "BABIP w/o Shift On" should also be higher than "BABIP". If it is not, then the shift was not working. One that stands out is Yonder Alonso. In 2013, shifting on him did not get a good result. It seems he could beat the shift out of you if you did.

I'm not really sure what kind of effectiveness a shift against a right handed hitter is, so you can take those numbers with a grain of salt. That probably also goes for switch hitters like Chase Headley, who seemed to get hits on balls in play at a good clip whether there was or was not a shift. In 2015 the Padres' only left handed regular hitters look like they will be Yonder Alonso and Alexi Amarista, with Will Venable getting some not-insignificant number of at bats. So the shift should not be a big deal for this crew.

The Jays announced a one-year extension for team president Paul Beeston, who will retire after the 2015 season. Elsewhere, the Mariners and Bud Norris agreed on a one-year deal to avoid arbitration.

The Toronto Blue Jays announced a one-year extension for team president Paul Beeston on Monday, ending the speculation that they would hire current Orioles GM Dan Duquette for the same role.

The Jays chased Duquette for much of the offseason but couldn't come to an agreement with the Orioles, who wanted a steep return as compensation for Duquette's departure.

Beeston will retire after the 2015 campaign, but the Blue Jays offered no comment on their plans for a successor. The 69-year-old Beeston was Toronto's team president from 1991 to 1997 before serving as the president and CEO for MLB from 1997 to 2002. He has been the Jays' current president since 2009.

Norris, Orioles avoid arbitration

Right-hander Bud Norris and the Orioles avoided arbitration Monday, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $8.8 million deal, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.

Norris had a strong campaign for Baltimore in 2014, finishing with a 3.65 ERA and 4.22 FIP along with 139 strikeouts and 52 walks in 28 starts. The 29-year-old was entering his final year of arbitration after earning $5.3 million in 2014 and will be a free agent next offseason.

Mariners sign Chavez

The Mariners officially announced the signing of Endy Chavez on a one-year contract. Chavez's deal includes an invite to major league spring training, and if he makes Seattle's big league roster, the 13-year veteran will earn $750,000 and can make up to $400,000 more based on plate appearance bonuses.

The 36-year-old Chavez hit .276/.317/.371 for the Mariners in 2014 over 80 games. He can play all three outfield positions.

Padres ink Pena

Ramiro Pena signed a minor-league deal with the Padres that includes an invite to big league spring training, the team announced Monday.

Pena had an impressive season for the Braves in 2013 before having season-ending surgery on a torn labrum in his right shoulder. The 29-year-old hit just .245/.304/.347 in 81 games for Atlanta in 2014 and can play at three different spots in the infield, including shortstop.

Time to crank up some Europe, 'cause it's the final countdown. There are only 23 days left until Padres pitchers and catchers report to Peoria on February 19. The first workout is scheduled for the next day; all other players are scheduled to show up on February 24, with the club's first full workout scheduled for the day after that.

The nineteenth is the most popular day to kick things off, with 13 teams' batteries reporting then. The Giants, along with both Pennsylvania teams and both Ohio teams, break camp one day earlier. Nine teams open up proceedings on February 20, the Rays pitchers and catchers report on February 21, and the Twins and Blue Jays finally get going on the twenty-second.

Even though it's 28 days until Yonder Alonso has to report, he's pictured here for obvious reasons. Alonso is the fifteenth player to wear number 23 for the Padres; others include Phil Nevin, Adrian Gonzalez, Tito Fuentes, and Shane Mack. Greg Vaughn wore it in 1998, his 50-homer season, after wearing 7 in 1996 and 25 in 1997.

Since there are only 22 days until Padres pitchers and catchers report, it seemed like as good of a time as any to look back at the players who have donned the double-deuce in America's Finest City.

I was going to use a picture of David Eckstein for this post, because every picture of David Eckstein is golden, but decided that Wally Joyner deserved top billing since he played more games than any other Padre with a pair of twos on his back. Wally World got into 497 games with the Friars -- all while wearing 22 -- from 1996 through 1999. Second place belongs to Xavier Nady, who wore 22 for 269 games with the Padres in 2000 and from 2003 through 2005. Nady came back to San Diego last season for, coincidentally, 22 games but wore 21 during that time because Ian Kennedy already had 22, as he still does.

Other notable Padres to wear 22 include Marcus Giles, Ruppert Jones, Eddie Williams in his first of three stints in San Diego, and inaugural Friar Dick Kelley.

Baseball Prospectus' projection system, PECOTA, has the Padres getting 83 wins, which is 5th best in the National League and therefore good enough for a wild card spot.

The first projection system I had ever heard of was PECOTA. Nate Silver came up with the system for Baseball Prospectus long before he went into projecting political elections. It still lives today, in much more accessible forms. One of the most accessible is how it is used to project teams. In my previous post about Steamer projections and simple regressions, I was trying to extrapolate what the team would do from the individual players. As many pointed out there are many caveats to take into consideration with that. The beauty with these team projections is that they take many of those into account before coming up with the final numbers. In the end, it is still a projection so it can only serve as a talking point or a way to balance expectations for the coming season.

The good news for this projection is that Padres efforts seem to pay off some. When the numbers are churned the Padres end up with 83 wins and 5th best record in the National League, which in today's game means a wild card spot. Here's how the Padres line up in the NL West:

As you can see, it is the Giants who slot in one spot ahead of the Padres in line for the first wild card spot. That would set up a show down in San Francisco. The Giants' individual projections ($) are behind a paywall, but I can still discuss a few things them. Angel Pagan is projected to have a nice 2.4 WAR season, but with 640 PAs. He hasn't been able to stay healthy enough to do that since 2012. Matt Cain is also projected to do well, but he has been neither healthy or that good since 2012. So, while PECOTA projects a dog fight for 2nd place in the division I wouldn't count on it based on some fishiness with the Giants.

But let's talk some about the Padres' individual projections ($) because that is who we really care about and because they have some fun things to talk about compared to Steamer or simple regression. The first thing that stood out to me were the projections for the OFs. Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers are all projected or 3.0 or more WAR. That's quite good. It's not win-an-MVP good, but compared to Steamer's 6.5 combined WAR a 9.7 combined WAR looks great. Jedd Gyorko also gets a slightly better projection at 2.4, but his 2.0 tally in Steamer wasn't too shabby. Combined those 4 are projected to each hit at least 20 HRs. Considering that projections are notoriously conservative, that is quite the bold statement. No team in Padres history has had four 20 HR hitters in a single season. The last team to have 3 was the 2007 club with Adrian Gonzalez, Khalil Greene and Mike Cameron.

The pitching unfortunately still does not come out looking good. This has been a common theme among pundits that analyze the numbers and projections systems that try to predict them. PECOTA believes in Andrew Cashner to continue what he has done the last couple years, but the others fall prey to regression to the mean. It is just hard for any system like this to go out on a limb for Tyson Ross and his breakout or Ian Kennedy and his return to form after a couple bad years in Arizona. Even if you are big believers in belief with regards to this pitching staff it still seems like it could use a shot in the arm. An upgrade from a quality pitcher who can also eat innings.

In the end though, this is pretty good news. Much better than what we might have gotten accustomed to with projections. Sure, the accuracy of PECOTA versus other systems is in question, but it's always a nice pat on the back to see at least one go your way. And it also gives us some confidence that A.J. Preller does have some numbers at his back that show that these moves can pay off for the Friars.

Yesterday I took a look at Padres who wore number 22 since that's how many days were left until pitchers and catchers are set to report. In the comments it was requested -- nay, demanded -- that I check back in today with Ken Caminiti and the rest of the 21s. I'm a man of the people, so here we are.

Caminiti is actually second in games played while wearing 21 for the Friars, appearing in 557 games, trailing inaugural Padre Cito Gaston's 766. Interestingly, both Caminiti and Gaston never wore 21 elsewhere; Cammy wore 11 with the other three teams he played for, while Gaston rocked 25 and 43 in Atlanta, and 44 in Pittsburgh.

There have been 24 other Friars to wear 21, with another on the way. Recently signed pitcher Brandon Morrow -- not to be confused with recently acquired pitcher Brandon Maurer -- is the latest to be assigned the digits. Here, courtesy of Baseball Reference, is the full list:

Along with Gaston and Caminiti, Heath Bell is the other Friar to wear 21 in an All-Star game.

If you remember Mike Aldrete being a member of the Padres, kudos, since he was only around for a dozen games in 1991. If you remember him getting a hit, reevaluate everything you believe, because that never happened. Aldrete was 0-15 in 18 trips to the plate in the then-new blue pinstripes. Those 18 hitless plate appearances are second only to the 26 times catcher Don Slaught went to the plate without a knock six years later. Although Aldrete collected 565 hits from 1986 through 1996 with six other teams, this is a Padres blog, so I'll focus on the three times he reached base in a Padres uniform, all via walk.

Aldrete reached base for the first time as a Padre in his fifth plate appearance of the year, on April 20, 1991. With two outs, Shawn Abner on first, and the Padres trailing 3-2, Aldrete ran the count full and walked on Dodgers starter Tim Belcher's seventh pitch. Paul Faries then tripled to give the Padres a lead they wouldn't relinquish.

It was exactly one more week until Aldrete walked again. With the Friars and Phillies tied at twos heading into the twelfth, Philadelphia manager Jim Fregosi called on the late Darrel Akerfelds, and San Diego skipper Greg Riddoch countered with Aldrete, who once again worked a full count before taking his base. He moved to second on a bunt by Abner and scored the go-ahead run on a single by Faries. Unfortunately, the Phils scored a pair in the bottom of the inning and walked off with the win.

His final time on base occurred on May 3. In his second start of the year, Aldrete went 0-3 with a walk in the fourth against Expos starter Oil Can Boyd. He made it to third on a single by Faries, but was stranded when Abner struck out swinging. Three hitless plate appearances and one week later, Aldrete was cut loose. He hooked up with Cleveland, where he hit well, then kicked around the Arena League as a platooner, plug-in, and pinch-hitter for the next few years.

After going out on a high note with a World Series ring as a member of the '96 Yankees, Aldrete turned to coaching. As noted on his B-R Bullpen bio page, Aldrete seems to be close with former teammate Bob Melvin, as Melvin gave Aldrete his first major league coaching gig with the Mariners, took him to the desert when he got the D-backs job, and re-hired him as his bench coach this offseason. Prior to Melvin making Aldrete his right-hand-man (although Aldrete is left-handed) in Oakland, Aldrete spent the past three years in St. Louis in that capacity.

The Angels are looking to lock up a trio of core players.

The Los Angeles Angels are open to extending right-handers Garrett Richards and Huston Street, as well as catcher Chris Iannetta, per MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez. The trio proved to be crucial parts of the Angels' success last season, so it is quite reasonable that the club would want to extend them long-term. Both Iannetta and Street are currently slated to be free agents next winter, while Richards is just entering his first year of arbitration eligibility.

The 26-year-old Richards had a breakout season in 2014, emerging as the club's ace. In 168.2 innings pitched, he posted a 2.61 ERA, 139 ERA+, 2.60 FIP, 3.22 K/BB, 4.6 WAR, and league-leading 0.3 HR/9. Unfortunately, he succumbed to a knee injury in August that cost him the final part of the season, and may put a damper on any extension talks as the two sides try to see if he returns to full health.

As a Super Two player eligible for arbitration for the first time, Richards and the Angels are currently engaged in a negotiation that has yet to be settled. The two sides are scheduled to hold an arbitration hearing on February 11th, per the Los Angeles Times' Mike DiGiovanna, with a sizable gap in exchanged figures, as the Angels have offered $2.4 million and Richards has asked for $3.8 million. Per DiGiovanna, the Angels and Richards have also yet to discuss a multi-year deal.

The Angels dealt away catcherHank Conger in November, leaving Iannetta without any competition to retain the starting job in 2015 (though they did pick up prospect Carlos Perez in the Conger deal). Iannetta has quietly been a real asset for the Angels behind the plate since GM Jerry Dipoto and co. acquired him from the Rockies prior to the 2012 season. Over the past three years with the Angels, he has hit .238/.357/.386 with a 113 OPS+ and a 6.2 WAR, though he has been oft-injured and isn't the greatest pitch framer. Nonetheless, Iannetta is among the most patient batters in the game, and is well above-average offensively for a catcher.

Street, meanwhile, was acquired in a mid-season deal with the San Diego Padres last season, and was lights out for the Angels down the stretch, notching a 1.71 ERA in 26.1 innings with the club (he had a 1.37 ERA with 41 saves, a 229 ERA+, and 4.07 K/BB in 59.1 total innings). Street, who will make $7 million in 2015, has apparently already been approached by the Angels regarding an extension, per Gonzalez. Interestingly, as Street told Gonzalez in November, the 31-year-old closer plans to represent himself in negotiations.

How do the teams in the National League West stack up against each other at each position on the diamond? Let's start with the good news...

I'm using the projected numbers from Fangraphs at each position to determine the rankings.

1. Diamondbacks: 5.5 WAR (#1 overall)

Everyday starter: Paul Goldschmidt (5.4)
Backup: Mark Trumbo (0.0)

The Diamondbacks are not just projected to have the best first-base in the NL West, they're projected to have the best in the entire league. No, scratch that: the entire major-leagues, with the next best being the Tigers' combo of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, who are expected to be worth a total of 5.1 WAR. Of course, as far as we're concerned, it's all about the Goldies. Jordan Pacheco is another possible back-up, but given the likely glut of potential outfielders, and Trumbo's defensive indifference, we might as well use him at first. Albeit only for the game a month Goldschmidt can be pried out of the line-up, and GDTs become particularly sullen.

2. Giants: 3.9 WAR (#5)

Everyday starter: Brandon Belt (3.6)
Backup: Travis Ishikawa (0.0) + Buster Posey (0.2)

Trailing well behind in the "best 1B in the division" contest, we find a player nicknamed "Baby Giraffe". This is such an embarrassment, I hope Belt has a Hall of Fame worthy career, purely so his descendants can forever cringe, at seeing it engraved on his Cooperstown plaque. As a first-baseman... Well, he's no Goldschmidt, but Belt has proven himself perfectly respectable, especially at minimum wage. However, he was a Super Two so hit arbitration last year: and there's a big gap this season, $3 million offered by the Giants, while he wants 50% more, at $4.5 million. Should still be good value: just not as good value.

3. Dodgers: 3.5 WAR (#6)

Everyday starter: Adrian Gonzalez (3.4)
Backup: Scott Van Slyke (0.1) and Yasmani Grandal (0.1)

Gonzalez may not be the best first-baseman in the division, but he certainly will be the most expensive, earning a whopping $21,857,000 this year - albeit with a chunk ($3.9m) of that paid by the Red Sox. Hard to say he doesn't deserve a good payday based on past performance: since 2009, only three 1B have been worth more WAR than Gonzalez (Cabrera, Votto and Pujols). But he will turn 33 in May, and Father Time is closing in. He's under contract to Los Angeles for three more years beyond this one, and another $66.57 million is due there, Seems unlikely he'll still be as good value by the time the contract ends and he's 37.

4. Rockies: 2.0 WAR (#21)

Everyday starter: Justin Morneau (1.7)
Backup: Wilin Rosario (0,2)

Interesting how every other team bar the D-backs uses their catcher as a backup, to some extent, at first-base. It's not just our current lack of a catcher either: it's not something we ever saw Montero do. The last Arizona catcher to appear both there and first in the same season was Chris Snyder in 2009 - and that was an emergency in an extra-innings game, after an injury to Mark Reynolds required Chad Tracy to go first to third (it was also Trent Oeltjen's major-league debut). Morneau will be a year older than Gonzalez, but Colorado won't be on the hook for that much, at $6.75 million for 2015. Still, he's not exactly Todd Helton, is he?

5. Padres: 1.9 WAR (#23)

Everyday starter: Yonder Alonso (1.9)
Backup: Tommy Medica (0.0)

It's a radically retooled San Diego offense in 2015, but Alonso appears to have survived the cull, and will be looking to rebound after a disappointing 2014 that was curtailed entirely in August by surgery to repair a torn tendon. He should be ready to go by spring training, but has never quite lived up to potential which had him a top forty prospect before 2012. Even for Petco, the.719 OPS he has posted over the last three seasons is not what you want from an everyday 1B, and since he turns 28 a couple of weeks into the season, he doesn't much deserve the "prospect" label any longer. If he doesn't produce in 2015, there may be another change on the way for the Padres.

Conclusion

If there's any doubt how important Goldschmidt is to this team, we just need to look what happened after his season was ended by a Pittsburgh pitch on August 1. The Diamondbacks won just 16 of 53 games the rest of the way. While there may well have been an element of phoning it in there - much though that was strenuously denied by the team - you'd be hard pushed to think of anyone we need fit, healthy and productive more than Paul. As we'll see in the rest of this series, positions where we project to be average, never mind the best in the division, are hard to come by. We certainly can ill afford any slack from the spots of strength on the 2015 Diamondbacks.

One thing that I found interesting was how little depth is present here, across the entire division. While the everyday starter is expected to get between 75% (Colorado) and 95% (Arizona), the balance isn't expected to produce much above replacement level. That isn't a particularly NL West situation either: a handful of backup 1Bs are expected to be worth more than half a win for their teams in 2015: Martinez, Adam LaRoche, Steve Pearce, Edwin Encarnacion and Chris Carter. Somebody like the 2013 version of Eric Chavez, worth 0.7 WAR, was very much the exception, not the rule.

Devin Mesoraco's hard contact makes his potential in 2015 incredibly exciting

A former top prospect, Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco struggled in his first 600 plate appearances. From 2011 to 2013, Mesoraco hit .225/.282/.359 with 16 HR and a 70 wRC+. The Reds had shown a strong future commitment to Mesoraco by trading their other top catching prospect, Yasmani Grandal, to the Padres as part of the deal for pitcher Mat Latos, and Mesoraco wasn’t coming through for the Reds the way they had hoped in the early part of his career.

However, in 2014, Mesoraco exploded into one of the most productive hitters in the National League. Over 440 PA, Mesoraco hit .273/.359/.534 with 25 HR, 80 RBI and a 147 wRC+. Mesoraco’s 147 wRC+ would have been 11^th best in baseball had he qualified, slightly edging out Buster Posey for the top wRC+ amongst catchers.

Process at the plate: Mesoraco creamed the ball in 2014

If you’ve been reading my articles, you know that I like to measure the process behind the results for fantasy player evaluation. For hitters, one major characteristic of good process at the plate is hitting the ball hard, and Devin Mesoraco’s hard hit% was right up there with the most elite hitters in the sport.

Mesoraco hit the ball hard in 23.3% of his at bats, which was 5^th best in baseball and ahead of hitters like Victor Martinez, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout. Only Troy Tulowitzki, Paul Goldschmidt, David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera hit the ball harder than Mesoraco in 2014. This stat strongly supports Mesoraco’s 2014 season as being completely legit. Good results aren’t lucky when you hit the ball hard.

Here's a look at the top 10 players in hard hit rate and their weighted runs created plus:

Increase in home run to fly ball ratio

Sometimes, when a hitter sees a massive spike in his HR/FB ratio from his career norm, it is labeled unsustainable or flukey. This, however, is not the case if the hitter is now making significantly harder contact than he made previously. The harder a player hits a fly ball, the greater chance it has to go for a home run. If a player is hitting his fly balls much harder than in previous years, more of them are going to go over the fence.

Mesoraco is an example of this. See this table:

The increase in Mesoraco's hard contact aligns with both the increase in home runs to fly balls and the increase in overall production offensively.

Sustained success

When a hitter changes up his process at the plate and begins to crush the ball, pitchers will adjust in an attempt to generate weaker contact. Often, they will find an area of weakness. For example, a batter may square up outer and middle third pitches very well but struggle to square up pitches on the inner third. Or maybe a batter hits fastballs very hard but can't square up offspeed pitches too often. Pitchers will attack this area of weakness and the hitter will see his results diminish. It is then up to the hitter to readjust to how he's being pitched.

Based on his hard hit% of swings in specific pitch locations, Mesoraco has no plate coverage weaknesses. His hard hit rate was above average in every location:

Mesoraco also hit the ball hard against both fastballs and offspeed pitches in the zone:

This data is a good sign for Mesoraco sustaining success.

Swing change

Mesoraco changed his swing in 2014. Eno Sarris of Fox Sports wrote,

After an offseason talk with hitting coach Don Long, the Reds catcher was left with a couple of changes to his swing.

"In the past, my bat path was not very tight and short. We really tried to get shorter to the ball and more athletic and dynamic," Mesoraco said.

He used to get his front foot down "super early" and then swing — "Now I'm stepping into the ball a lot more."

Now he has a "more rhythmic thing" going, his swing is shorter, and his hands are closer to his body.

Hitters want to keep their hands inside the ball when swinging and keeping the hands closer to the body can help accomplish this. Keeping the hands inside the ball makes it easier to square a pitch up with the sweet spot of the bat, which creates hard contact.

Changes in Plate Discipline

It appears that Mesoraco traded some of his contact for harder contact. Here were Mesoraco’s changes in plate discipline, via FanGraphs:

Marlon Byrd had a similar change in plate discipline before his breakout season in 2013.

Mesoraco also increased his walk rate, improving from 7.5% to 9.3%.

Consistent playing time

Mesoraco finally began to receive much more consistent playing time in 2014. FOX Sports Ohio wrote,

When the Reds traded with San Diego a couple of years ago and acquired pitcher Mat Latos they sent catcher Yasmani Grandal to the Padres as part of the deal. That sent the message that Mesoraco was their catcher of the future. The trade of Ryan Hanigan to TampaBay this past offseason made Mesoraco the catcher of the present.

"I think there's a certain something to be said about knowing that you're going to play even if you get off to a slow start," said manager Bryan Price. "I think the trade of Hanigan created an environment that he took advantage of, and that's that certain amount of ability to relax and not treat every start as the game that might get you more playing time."

In 2015, Price says that Mesoraco will catch more often and left the door open to playing some 1B. Price said,

"I’ve been asked that question a lot about Mesoraco playing first base," said Price. "How much would he play? Only if Votto was injured. Realistically, I see him as a Yadier Moilina type guy who is going to catch 145 games a year, more so than I see him catching 110 a year and playing 20 or 30 at first base.

Aaron Gleeman pointed out that Yadier Molina has never started 145 games in a season and has only eclipsed 135 games started once, so Price's statement likely reflects an emphasis on playing Mesoraco more behind the plate rather than any concrete number.

One negative: Mesoraco didn't use the whole field well in 2014

Mesoraco is primarily a pull hitter. Because of this, teams can strategically place their defenders in a better position to field his batted balls which will give him less space to find a hole. Here were Mesoraco's results on batted ball locations, via FanGraphs:

Here's a spray chart via FanGraphs:

Mesoraco is a candidate to see more of this in 2015 (image from ESPN):

What can we expect from Mesoraco in 2015?

Steamer projects Mesoraco to have a 110 wRC+ in 2015, which I think is selling Mesoraco’s 2014 accomplishments way too short. If Mesoraco's hard hit rate stays well above league average, he will far surpass that number.

Mesoraco hits in an extremely hitter friendly home ballpark in Cincinnati which makes his HR and RBI totals easier to inflate. Since the NL unfortunately does not have the DH, Mesoraco will not be able to play as often as a strong hitting catcher in the AL, which will slightly reduce his chances at extra RBI, R and HR.

It will be interesting to see if the Reds allow Mesoraco to play some 1B in 2015; if they do, that will give a big boost to his fantasy value because he'll get more at bats. I think it would be prudent to play Mesoraco there once a week to give Joey Votto's body a break. The Reds have a lot of money tied up in Votto and they need to keep him healthy.

I expect Mesoraco to perform as a top 3 catcher in 2015 and have him ranked 2^nd overall, behind Buster Posey. If Mesoraco can reach a healthy 500 PA, I'm pinning him for 28 HR and 95 RBI with a decent batting average. Mesoraco won't have a batting average in the same ballpark as Buster Posey, but he's a strong candidate to have the top power numbers in fantasy baseball next year.

. . .

Talk baseball/fantasy with Tim on twitter at @TimFinn521

Which sports championship is better? This honest, unbiased, mostly scientific look attempts to answer the question.

This is an honest attempt to answer a question we've all asked ourselves. An honest, unbiased, mostly scientific attempt. And by, "question we've all asked ourselves," I mean, "question that has been answered already in an overwhelming popular vote." Still, for every Nick Drake album or CD sold in this country, Staind has sold 15. Don't appeal to popularity contests and expect to be taken seriously.

Even though the Super Bowl is a lot more popular than the World Series. Like, whoa, so much more popular. Unfathomably so. It's really something.

That's not the point, though! The question is simple: Is the World Series the best sporting event in North America, or is the Super Bowl? To answer, we've come up with honest, unbiased, mostly scientific categories.

Commercials

Before it became a cliché to hate the idea of paying too much attention to Super Bowl commercials, it was a cliché for disinterested people to claim they were watching only for the commercials. I'm not sure where we're all at now. It's a postmodern, self-aware, ironic miasma of earnest appreciation for how much emphasis is placed on the commercials aired during a massive television event. The subculture of Super Bowl commercials is so damned American. The commercials are the used condoms of capitalism, simultaneously disgusting us and reminding us just how fun this world can be. Mostly disgusting, though.

And yet, at least the people behind the Super Bowl commercials are trying. This is the shot for everyone involved, the ad that will go on portfolios for decades, the one chance to reach a billion people and make them react to something, hopefully with their wallets. The monetary stakes are high, the pressure is enormous. Everyone wants to be in the winner's column published on every website in the hours following the game.

The commercials in the World Series are designed to root through your subconscious while you're in a fugue state. The repetition is so bad, so very bad, that you're sick of them before the second inning of Game 1. How many times did you watch this during the World Series?

HOW MANY TIMES DID YOU WATCH THAT?

I GET IT.

STOP IT.

I KNOW.

Even if that commercial debuted during the Super Bowl, you would only be subjected to it once. Pretending to be offended by the Super Bowl commercials is missing the point. Yes, it's kind of silly how much attention people pay to them. But consumerism already bit us on the neck and drained everything that made us human. Super Bowl commercials are one of the only cool side effects, like flying or turning into a bat. Embrace them.

Advantage: Super Bowl

★★★

Number of games

One game? To decide the champion of a months-long season? You savages.

There's an argument for a condensed championship game like the Super Bowl -- everything's a Game 7, everything is incredibly meaningful. It's all negated, though, by the potential of a blowout. After two weeks of hype and anticipation, the Broncos/Seahawks Super Bowl last year was unwatchable after 30 minutes. You don't get out of the first inning of the World Series in 30 minutes.

To extend the analogy to television, the World Series is a serial drama, like True Detective or Homeland, something that can bore you, thrill you, confuse you, make you debate its value and worth over a long span of time. Eventually, it might be a total waste of time, like Homeland, but there's always a moment or 30 that make it worth your time.

The Super Bowl is a Hollywood blockbuster, sometimes more Jurassic Park than Transformers 4. Consistently more, even. But I've had a lot more fun with the serial dramas over the last decade than Hollywood blockbusters. The pace and evolution of storylines appeals to me a lot more.

Advantage: World Series

★★★

National Anthem singers/entertainment

Ranking the National Anthem singers for every Super Bowl since 1980

1. Aaron Neville and Aretha Franklin, piano accompaniment by Dr. John
2. Whitney Houston
3. Beyoncé
4. Diana Ross
5. Neil Diamond
6. Helen O'Connell
7. Wynton Marsalis
8. Mariah Carey
9. Renée Fleming
10. Aaron Neville
11. Herb Alpert
12. Luther Vandross
13. Harry Connick, Jr.
14. Jennifer Hudson
15. Natalie Cole
16. Alicia Keys
17. Garth Brooks
18. Vanessa L. Williams
19. Faith Hill
20. Cher
21. Dixie Chicks
22. Christina Aguilera
23. Kelly Clarkson
24. Cheryl Ladd
25. Carrie Underwood
26. Barry Manilow
27. Billy Joel
28. Billy Joel again, are you shitting me?
29. Jewel
30. Jordin Sparks
31. Leslie Easterbrook
32. Backstreet Boys
33. Kathie Lee Gifford

Note: I didn't rank the military choirs or boys/girls choruses because I'm not a monster. Also, this is based on the artist's career, not their actual performances. Maybe the Backstreet Boys were really good!

I think I own an album for the first ... five? Then it trails off into abstract appreciation. Right around Garth Brooks, we start to get into, "Okay, hold on ..." territory, and it devolves from there. As a 25-year cross-section of the American entertainment-industrial complex, though, the list mostly makes sense.

There's no point in listing every singer before every World Series game. Just one will do.

That's the guy from Staind, who sang before Game 5 this year, and whose awful band was used as an example of horrible, ghastly taste in my opening paragraph before I even decided to include National Anthems as one of the categories. He lost this entire category for baseball. That's probably the least shitty thing he's ever done in his entire career, too.

The Super Bowl almost gives it back because of the often-annoying halftime shows. On the other hand:  Prince.

Advantage: Super Bowl

★★★

History

The Super Bowl has an amazing history. I can tell you where I was when Marcus Allen cut back, when Young hit Rice on the slant, when Joe Montana looked up and saw John Candy, when Kevin Dyson was one yard short. Whenever the NFL Network runs the marathon of NFL Films highlights from Super Bowl history, I'll catch at least three or four. What a rich history.

Baseball has twice as much history. If you think it's fair to double-count a category up there, it has about 10 times the history, considering how many games total have been played. There's been a fixed World Series, one that ended with Babe Ruth getting caught stealing, Willie Mays making a catch that's still burned in our brains, Enos Slaughter's mad dash, and a walk-off home run to win the whole thing for one of the greatest underdogs in baseball history. That's all before the first Super Bowl was ever played.

Advantage: World Series

★★★

Getting drunk with friends and eating chips from a bowl the same shape as the ball used in the sport

Alternate category title: "Parties." Or, generally, "Social activity." If these categories were weighted, this one would probably tilt the whole thing in the favor of the Super Bowl. Good thing this is honest, unbiased, and scientific.

I've been in a bar for a World Series game. It was fun! It was also an accident. When the White Sox and Padres meet in the 2015 World Series, it's not like I'm going to call up my friends and invite them to a World Series party. That's almost entirely because of the one-game vs. seven-game format. The Super Bowl party has a beginning, middle, and end. When everyone leaves, there's a winner and a loser. The winner might be Budweiser, for "Horse Drives a Tank," with GoDaddy losing for "Thighs Butts Boobs Look," depending on what you're watching for, but there's closure.

What, are you going to have a party for Game 1 of the World Series? Thanks for coming, don't forget there's probably 20 hours of baseball after this that will really decide everything. It's like inviting people over to play Monopoly and kicking everyone out after the first hotel.

Also, shut up, there is no analogy between Monopoly and baseball, you shut up, that was an accident.

You can't get much of a party going before a Game 7, either, considering you don't even know if it'll exist 24 hours earlier. There's no good way to do a World Series party that isn't "a few friends."

The Super Bowl is an event. The World Series is an unedited manuscript from an inconsistently brilliant author. Sometimes -- once a year, say -- you just want the event.

Advantage: Super Bowl

★★★

Location

Ah, but there's a dark side to the party atmosphere. It's a party that everyone wants to be at. It's a party that everyone wants to be seen at. But it's in a city that has no association with the teams involved. Check this celebrity salad out:

With Food Network star Aaron Sanchez providing a Tabasco inspired menu, the event – which will take place at an undisclosed desert location in Scottsdale – promises to have Nick Cannon and beats by DJ Vice.

The people listed will invite other people. Assume most of them will attend the Super Bowl. None of them care about the actual game.

Actor Mark Wahlberg and director Michael Bay team up for their first collaboration since Transformers: Age of Extinction, coming together to co-host a star-studded charity event at the Paradise Valley home of Washington Nationals manager Matt Williams.

Okay. There are dozens of these things, and most of the people who actually get tickets to the Super Bowl are dispassionate people in expensive clothes who contribute to the collective murmur-hum that rarely changes, regardless of how exciting the game is.

You know who attends the World Series? Fans. Passionate, insane fans. Sure, there's still a definite the-place-to-be-seen aspect that attracts rich people who didn't care about the sport a month earlier, but they're a minority. Every World Series game has a demographic breakdown something like this:

Home fans (35,000)
Away fans (5,000)
Marlins fans (1)

The home fans are raucous, obsessive. The away fans are frantic, involved, and walking that fine line of "cheering" and "not provoking beers thrown from the upper deck." When the game is close and late, the crowd pulses and throbs. There are no rich people in expensive clothes singing the song of a 90,000-part air conditioner chorus. No, World Series have this guy:

Do you love that guy? I love that guy. People like him might be at the Super Bowl, but they're hidden in the back, miles away from the field. And they're definitely in the minority. The World Series has that guy. Appreciate that guy.

Advantage: World Series

★★★

Are kids actually awake and able to watch?

Ugh. Kids are the worst. They'll be like, "Daddy look at me sing and dance, for I am a symbol of innocence and wonder, the purest manifestation of love you will ever encounter," right when someone gets in the red zone. Every damned time. Selfish. Little. Demons. Let me know all the different ways kids improve your Super Bowl experience at idgaf@voxmedia.com.

World Series games start when kids are in bed on the East Coast.

Advantage: World Series

★★★

Gambling

Gambling on a single, isolated event makes you care about anything. Whether the Broncos win. If one dog is faster than another dog. If Christopher Walken shoots himself in the head. Anything. Especially the Super Bowl. Plus, there are prop bets.

Bettors favors Heads so much that some sportsbooks are actually making it cheaper to bet Tails in an effort to even action.

— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) January 29, 2015

Now that's some good gambling. And don't forget about the stupid office pools that make people carry crumpled sheets of papers with 0-9 matrices and illegible initials of the people they work with. Those are actually really fun.

Gambling on the World Series is an unexciting, prolonged mess by comparison. The lows aren't as low, the highs aren't as high. The prop bets are duller. And if you gamble on every individual game, there's too much of an urge to dig a deeper hole after a loss. I can't recommend it.

Advantage: Super Bowl

Adding it up, we have four on the Super Bowl side and four on the World Series side. Looks like it's a tie. Well, we can't have that. It's un-American. You can have a tie in football games, which is a sign, but you can't have a tie in the Super Bowl.

So to the tie-breaker we go!

★★★

Amount of actual baseball contained

Super Bowl: 0
World Series: At least 12 hours.

Baseball is inherently better. You can tell because you get to follow the game and enjoy it more with stats like WAR, OBP, and BOFA. The Super Bowl contains less baseball than the World Series, which means it just loses out in this honest, unbiased, mostly scientific look at both championships.

Advantage: World Series

Winner: World Series

It's close, though. Enjoy your Super Bowl, everyone.

Although the Philadelphia farm system remains rather thin, recent trades have boosted depth and improved the situation.

Phi

Philadelphia PhilliesTop 20 Prospects for 2015

The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2015 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders for the book, so order early and order often!

All of these grades are preliminary and subject to change.

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS

Grade A prospects are the elite.In theory, they have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Theoretically, most Grade A prospects develop into stars or at least major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.

Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for the full analysis about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much.A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

1) J.P. Crawford, SS, Grade A-: Age 20, hit combined .285/.375/.406 with 11 homers, 24 steals between Low-A and High-A. Fine defensive tools, sound contact hitter with developing gap power, young, athletic, strong makeup. One of the top shortstop prospects in baseball without question.

2) Aaron Nola, RHP, Grade B+: Age 21, first round pick out of LSU, posted 2.93 ERA with 45/10 K/BB in 55 innings in pro debut between High-A and Double-A. Advanced college pitcher will need little time in the minors thanks to sharp command of 92-95 fastball, slider, change-up. Excellent pitchability and confidence, number two starter potential.

3) Maikel Franco, 3B, Grade B+: Age 22, slow start in Triple-A but heated up as summer progressed, hit .257/.299/.428 with 16 homers for Lehigh Valley, .179/.190/.214 in 56 at-bats in the majors. Will need adjustment time but overall track record keeps him in premium prospect territory. Glove is under-rated.

4) Ben Lively, RHP, Grade B: Age 22, acquired from Reds for Marlon Byrd, posted 3.04 ERA with 171/52 K/BB in 151 innings, 117 hits between High-A and Double-A. Low-90s fastball, slider, curve, change, none of his pitches are outstanding but they are all solid and he usually throws strikes. Deceptive but repeatable delivery plays everything up. Number three starter potential and a personal favorite for this analyst.

5) Jesse Biddle, LHP, Grade B/Borderline B-: Age 23, posted 5.03 ERA with 80/44 K/BB in 82 innings in Double-A. Was pitching decently early in the year but was struck in the head by a large piece of hail during a thunderstorm in late May, giving him a concussion. He tried to pitch through the neurological damage with disastrous results and was eventually sent down to extended spring training to recuperate. Some sources have questioned his mental fortitude, but it is completely unfair to criticize Biddle for not pitching well under those conditions. You can't makeup your way out of a concussion. He should have never been rushed back in the first place. He gets an injury mulligan from me; concussion sufferers stick together.

6) Zach Eflin, RHP, Grade B/Borderline B-: Age 20, posted 3.80 ERA in 128 innings in Cal League, 138 hits. Acquired from Padres in Jimmy Rollins deal. Potential number three starter with low-90s fastball, change-up, curve, gets grounders. Somewhat hittable and projects more as a workhorse than an ace, but there’s nothing wrong with that.

7) Roman Quinn, OF-INF, Grade B-: Age 21, hit .257/.343/.370 with 38 walks, 32 steals in 327 at-bats in High-A. Renowned for outstanding speed, lacks power and needs to boost on-base skills for speed to maximize value at higher levels. Power questionable.

8) Jesmuel Valentin, 2B, Grade B-: Age 20, acquired from Dodgers last summer in Roberto Hernandez trade, hit .273/.341/.412 with 25 steals in 451 at-bats between Low-A and High-A. Solid tools across the board, has made progress with hitting, could develop more power in time, works well at second base. Under-rated prospect who deserves more notice.

9) Matt Imhof, LHP, Grade B-: Age 20, second round pick out of Cal Poly, posted 2.98 ERA with 40/11 K/BB in 42 innings in pro debut at three levels, 40 hits. Classic finesse southpaw with 87-91 heat, curve, change-up, nothing spectacular but knows how to pitch and probably won’t need long in the minors. Potential fourth starter due to command.

10) Kelly Dugan, OF, Grade B-/Borderline C+: Age 24, hit .296/.383/.435 in 253 at-bats in Double-A, playing time limited by an oblique injury. Lefty hitter with power, effective defense at either corner. Often overlooked but this is a toolsy outfielder who has actually developed well. Should get a trial sometime this year.

11) Aaron Brown, OF, Grade B-/Borderline C+: Age 22, drafted in third round out of Pepperdine where he was also an excellent pitcher. Phillies want him to hit due to left-side power and overall tools, hit .268/.310/.383 with seven walks, 60 strikeouts in 235 pro at-bats. Impressive power, 20-homer potential but his approach has serious holes currently and he must improve sense for the zone. Could return to pitching if necessary.

12) Tom Windle, LHP, Grade C+/Borderline B-: Age 22, acquired from Dodgers in Rollins trade, posted 4.26 ERA with 111/44 K/BB in 139 innings in Cal League. Some see him as more reliever than starter due to solid low-90s fastball/slider combination but need to improve change-up.

13) Odubel Herrera, 2B, Grade C+/Borderline B-: Age 23, rule 5 pick from Rangers system, hit .315/.383/.388 with 52 walks, 21 steals in 479 at-bats between High-A and Double-A. Blocked by other players in Texas system, can play second base and outfield with mediocre results at both spots. Has always hit well, .294/.354 OBP in his career. Useful bat off the bench.


14) Yoel Macias, LHP, Grade C+: Age 21, recovering from Tommy John surgery, posted 3.21 ERA with 23/9 K/BB in 34 innings in Low-A. Low 90s, good change, still working on breaking stuff, projectable. Seen as breakthrough candidate now that Tommy John is in the past, number three starter upside.

15) Dylan Cozens, OF, Grade C+: Age 20, hit .248/.303/.415 with 16 homers, 23 steals in Low-A. Huge, strong at 6-6, 235 but has a big strike zone to manage. Right field throwing arm, mobile for his size, considerable upside as a power hitter but contact/average will be an issue.

16) Carlos Tocci, OF, Grade C+: Age 19, hit .242/.297/.324 with 10 steals, 25 walks, 96 strikeouts in 487 at-bats in Low-A. Extremely young for his levels, very good fielder, has no power at all and may not develop much. High risk, high upside player. Other analysts are more enthusiastic so YMMV.

17) Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, RHP, Grade C+: Age 28, Cuban defector slowed by shoulder problems in pro debut, posted 3.11 ERA with 54/26 K/BB in 46 innings at three levels. Should be solid bullpen contributor if healthy.

18) Victor Arano, RHP, Grade C+: Age 19, nice pickup from Dodgers in Hernandez trade, posted 4.08 ERA with 83/20 K/BB in 86 innings in Low-A. Midwest League sources like his pitchability and chance to develop into a solid workhorse starter. Good addition of depth to system.

19) Aaron Altherr, OF, Grade C: Age 24, marvelous athlete, hit .236/.287/.399 with 14 homers, 12 steals, 26 walks, 110 strikeouts in 449 at-bats in Double-A. Still trying to turn his tools into baseball skills, impressive with glove but bat is highly questionable.

20) Deivi Grullon, C, Grade C: Age 18, hit .227/.267/.297 in 273 at-bats in short-season A, low-A, high-A. Draws rave reviews for his defensive ability but is currently a very poor hitter. Young enough for that to improve, but very much a long-term, high-risk investment.

Ethan Martin was originally listed as a prospect but is, in fact, no longer a rookie.

OTHERS: Drew Anderson, RHP; Elvis Aruajo, LHP; Willians Astudillo, C-1B; Luis Encarnacion, OF (high ceiling); Arquimedes Gamboa, SS (high ceiling), Elneiry Garcia, LHP (high ceiling); Franklyn Kilome, RHP (high ceiling); Andrew Knapp, C; Brandon Liebrandt, LHP; Colton Murray, RHP; Neifo Ogando, RHP; Andy Oliver, LHP; Cameron Perkins, OF-INF; Ricardo Pinto, RHP; Jose Pujols, OF (high ceiling); Andrew Pullin, 2B; Edubray Ramos, RHP; Joely Rodriguez, LHP; Cord Sandberg, OF; Jiandido Tromp, OF

There seems to be a very wide difference in opinion about the Phillies system. Everyone seems to agree that the system is thin but has been improved by recent trades. Beyond that, however, there is a large disparity among various pundit lists about which prospects, beyond the obvious top few, are the most interesting.

The Phillies are in the midst of a long-needed rebuilding effort and reinvigorating the farm system is a key step. Recent trades have brought in prospects Zach Elfin, Ben Lively, Jesmuel Valentin, Tom Windle and Victor Arano, greatly boosting system depth. Good steps were also taken in the 2013 and 2014 drafts, with J.P. Crawford and Aaron Nola looking like sound decisions in the first round. The Phillies have been well-known for liking raw players but they have diversified their approach recently and are bucking that stereotype. The 2014 draft was strongly college-oriented.

The Phillies currently lack impact depth. Crawford and Franco are the best bets for regular duty but most of the position players behind them look more like role players and extra parts than people you build your team around. Loud tools (speed with Quinn, power with Brown and Cozens) are available but these aren’t multi-dimensional players for the most part. There are some very youthful wildcards, products of international scouting including Carlos Tocci, Luis Encarnacion, and Jose Pujols, but so far these guys haven’t shown much, although the money spent to sign them (Arquimedes Gamboa is the latest example) shows commitment spent on player development.

Pitching revolves around Aaron Nola, the LSU ace who won’t need long in the minors. Jesse Biddle’s 2014 was ruined by a concussion and it is way too soon to give up on him. There’s depth in the C+/B- territory with several projected mid-rotation arms including 2014 draftee Matt Imhof and trade acquisitions Eflin, Windle, Lively, and Arano. Young Latin American arms like Yoel Mecias, Elneiry Garcia, and Franklyn Kilome are all highly projectable but are several years away.

Overall, this system is not as weak as you might think. They do have some decent prospects around but need to focus on building more depth.The front office seems well-aware of this.