MLB.com has a few words for some Mariners players in 2015. Let's take a closer look at what they have to say.

In less than one month, the Seattle Mariners will play their first Spring Training game against the San Diego Padres, kicking off activities for a 2015 season that should be one of the most exciting the game has seen in quite some time. I don't really have anything to back that statement up, but you've got a month until we can actually start writing about games so bear with me. Instead, we are all acting like kids returning from our Halloween hijinks with a bag full of sugary teeth-rotting goodies, hoping that there is something left inside that will surprise us when we dump it all out on the kitchen table later in the evening. Another breakout season from a corner infield position? A June callup with a name you can't pronounce ready to set the majors on fire? Lloyd throwing his hat at an umpire again? Another beard hat night?

Nobody knows, really, except they kind of do, and that's half the fun. It feels safe to say that Mike Trout is going to hit a whole bunch of baseballs really far this year, but then again, he could chop off his hand in a freak cooking accident before the season even starts. Prince Fielder could return to form and Felix could win another Cy Young, but I guess it's entirely possible they both renounce their careers and join a UFO cult out in the desert in Nevada instead. I mean, it's unlikely, but you never know.

So in the spirit of prognostication, I thought I'd take a look at MLB.com's recent Outlook series to see what they are saying about the Seattle Mariners, and what kind of 2015 we have in store for us.

1. "Outlook: Cano should return to 20-homer mark in 2015"

Already elite at his position, Cano could be one of the most valuable players in the majors in 2015 with a revitalized power stroke.

Robinson Cano did tie his career-low for homers last season with only 14, and as we all remember, it almost took him until May to even get one on the board. Some of it was Safeco, for sure--but he also only hit five homers on the road last year. He's starting to get older, and with the exception of maybe that one person from San Fransisco, you don't get stronger as you age. Then again, we are talking about a difference of six home runs, which is entirely within the margin of statistical variance outside things like park factors and aging. Alas, though, we are missing the point. "Should" Robinson Cano return to his 20-homer mark in 2015? Yes, yes he should. I don't know if he will, but he should.

Of course, Robinson Cano isn't making a quarter of a billion dollars simply for home runs. He still put up a weighted on base percentage of .361 last year with an fWAR of 5.2, making him the 21st most valuable position player in all of baseball. So all he really has to do is be Robinson Cano, and then he'll be one of the most valuable players in the majors. You may think this was two wasted paragraphs, but realize there are only about 20 people in the world you can say this about.

GRADE: B+

2. "Outlook: King Felix poised for another dominant year."

...the 28-year old should be primed for a 2015 campaign with at least 15 wins, a sub-3 ERA, and 200-plus K's.

Felix has only won less than 12 games in a full season once. He owned a 3.47 ERA as recently as 2011, but that has been ticking downward in the years since. He has not thrown fewer than 200 strikeouts in a season since 2008. These are all pretty safe bets, and it's nice of them to add the word "poised," because there really isn't a less risky way to put it: of course Felix is poised to be dominant. Will he? That's the big question. The answer is yes.

GRADE: A

3. "Outlook: Slugger Cruz moves to Safeco Field."

Cruz has always called a hitter-friendly park home, so his move to Safeco Field could have a negative impact on his home run total.

Will Slugger Cruz move to Safeco Field? Well I've got news for you, friend! The answer is YES! But oh, great, park factors. It's really terrifying when you think about it--a one-tool player who built a career out of Arlington's shallow fences, moving to a spacious ballpark where offense goes to die and oh wait

I suppose that one of these may have bounced off the fence right by Edgars' Cantina, and if we take the marine layer into account, then sure, maybe three or four of these 40 dingers would have turned into doubles. Then, the very unfortunate reality of a player on the Seattle Mariners possibly hitting 36 home runs in a single season would come to fruition, and nobody wants that.

Nelson Cruz is going to hit a bunch of dingers, so stop worrying about it. This is a person who hit baseballs 450 feet both before and after using PEDs, and he will end up playing half his games in other ballparks anyway. If I recall, that very excuse was used to defend Robinson Cano's predicted uptick a few videos earlier.

GRADE: D

4. "Outlook: Seager is one of the majors' best at 3B."

Fresh of career highs in batting average with .268, home runs at 25, RBIs at 96, and OPS at .788, the durable third baseman will look to take his game to a higher echelon in 2015.

I mean, I'm all for Seager not being satisfied with his 2014 performance. I would love for him to show up in Peoria this season, challenge himself to raise his batting average above .300, raise his wOBA above .400, smash even more dingers. Will he? I don't know, but a "higher echelon" than what he already is would be quite the spectacle to behold. His 5.5 fWAR in 2014 was the 15th-best mark for position players in the game, in front of names like Miguel Cabrera, Adam Jones, and Jason Heyward. Which, like Cano, is kind of a crazy thing to think about: If Kyle Seager improves in 2015, he is going to be one of the best players in all of baseball. If Kyle Seager statistically flatlines from his 2014 season, he will be amongst the best players in baseball.

GRADE: B, in order to encourage reaching for a higher echelon

5. "Outlook: Jackson will have opportunity to make impact."

Poor Austin Jackson. Nobody bothers to give him any narration in his video, no statistical predictions, no eloquent lines of great praise. We all know that Jackson's tenure as a Mariner in 2014 was less than impressive, and he knows it too, I'm sure. But simply saying that "Jackson will have opportunity to make impact" is a little disingenuous. I mean, Stefen Romero has an opportunity to make an impact every day he sets foot on a baseball field, but let's be honest with ourselves.

Thankfully, Jackson has more than an "opportunity" available to him. He owns the starting centerfield role, and as Colin noted last week, he's always been statistically volatile while playing an entire season of baseball, and Lloyd probably knows it. But the outlook is simple. Austin Jackson is going to have an opportunity to make an impact on the 2015 Seattle Mariners because the alternative is probably James Jones.

Grade: C-, for effort.

6. "Outlook: Rodney must reduce walk rate in 2015."

The right-hander has always struggled with control, as he has posted a BB/9 rate of at least 3.5 in every big-league season outside of 2012.

Fernando Rodney blew three saves in 2014. One of them came after he walked everyone on the Night That Shall Not Be Named, and yes, we all worry about his command at times. If Fernando Rodney dropped his BB/9 back to 2012's 1.81, few would complain. And of course, it would be less likely for Rodney to run into game-changing trouble if the bases were empty when he gave up gap doubles, yes. But for better or worse, Rodney's command issues don't always translate into losses, especially off the walk. Statistics don't exist in a vacuum, as we learned from Chris Young last year, and sometimes a cigar is just a cigar:

Look at these names! Nobody is going to tell Aroldis Chapman he needs to walk fewer batters, because he averages over 100mph on his fastball. The Braves have a lot of impending roster questions ahead of them, but Kimbrel is by all accounts going to be wearing the letter A on his hat for a long time. And in the midst of all this Rodney led all of baseball in saves, and although saves might seem like a dumb thing to get worried about, they aren't when managers actively formulate rosters in order to fulfill that need on a daily basis.

Last year Fernando Rodney ended more baseball games than games ended him, and he did all that while walking a few people in the process. He's 38 years old, and that ball is going to end up wherever it wants to go. And at this point, I kind of think that's part of what makes him who he is.

Grade: C

As noted last night, you're all to remain on high alert today as we wait for the Padres to sign James Shields.  Things looked promising in the morning with news about momentum, gains and heat.

Sources: Talks between Padres, Shields have heated up & are gaining momentum. Shields likes idea of pitching in SD.

— Scott Miller (@ScottMillerBbl) February 7, 2015

After not talking yesterday, Scott Miller says that today there's been a flurry of talks between the Padres and Shields' agent, but progress has stopped over a disagreement.  His sources used a tennis metaphor saying the ball was in Shields' court now. This is just a hunch, but I bet they're arguing over money!

Update: Impasse now between Padres & Shields after flurry of talks over last several hours. Sources: Ball in Shields' court.

— Scott Miller (@ScottMillerBbl) February 7, 2015

There's still hope though because Buster Olney's sources say that San Diego will still probably be Shields' destination.

As noted here Friday, folks who've been involved in the Shields conversations believe he's probably headed to the Padres.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 7, 2015

I don't know about you guys, but I'm going to hold my breath until further notice.

UPDATE:

The Padres and Shields are not at an impasse....rather Shields has to decide if he wants to accept their last and final offer....#Padres

— Jim Bowden (@JimBowden_ESPN) February 7, 2015

While the #Padres badly want James Shields, and are the favorites, they're being told several teams remain heavily involved in the bidding.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) February 7, 2015

Welp, this makes me nervous.

Let's start a swing around the outfield in the NL West starting in the left-hand corner.

As before, I'm using the projected numbers from Fangraphs at each position to determine the rankings.

1. Padres: 3.0 WAR (#5 overall)

Everyday starter: Justin Upton (2.8)
Backup: Carlos Quentin (0.2)

He's BAAAAAAACK... Well, back in the National League West, anyway. Upton was dealt to the Padres by the Braves in December, thanks to the signing of Nick Markakis and a desire to build for the future [J-Up was in the final year of his contract, and is due $14.5 million this season]. So, less than two years after the blockbuster Upton/Prado deal between us and the Braves, the highest profile player remaining with either team was Chris Johnson. Seems likely Petco will have its usual dampening effect on Upton's offense, with a projected OPS of .779. But he's still likely an upgrade: his 29 home-runs last year, were as many as all the San Diego outfielders put together.

2. Rockies: 2.7 WAR (#10)

Everyday starter: Carlos Gonzalez (2.2)
Backup: Corey Dickerson (0.5)

Remember when the Rockies signed Gonzalez and Tulo to long-term extensions, and prepared to be long-term contenders in the NL West? This year, the pair will earn a combined $36 million: add Jorge de la Rosa's $12,5m and that's more than half the team's expected payroll. Only the Mets and Mariners are more top-heavy. Good when healthy, it doesn't help that CarGo and Troy-boy didn't play 162 games combined in 2014. Gonzalez managed only 70, thanks to problems with his finger, ankle and a knee that required season-ending surgery in August. This is why the projections see the backups getting 30% of the playing time - and that might end up being an under-estimate.

3. Dodgers: 2.5 WAR (#12)

Everyday starter: Carl Crawford (1.8)
Backup: Scott Van Slyke (0.7)

With the Dodgers severely overstocked in the outfield department, there were rumblings at the beginning of the off-season that Crawford might be on the trade block, with rumors of a swap for the Rangers' shortstop Elvis Andrus. But when the dust settled on a very busy winter for Los Angeles, it was Matt Kemp who had gone. The left-handed Crawford will likely platoon with the rightie Van Slyke: the main issue is that the 33-year-old Crawford will be paid $21.36 million this year, and additionally is on the books through the end of 2017. Decent enough, yet undeniably over-paid. [Note: he's only the fourth-most expensive player on the Dodgers roster this season]

4. Giants 1.7 WAR (#21)

Everyday starter: Norichika Aoki (1.4)
Backup: Gregor Blanco (0.3)

Having lost Michael Morse to free-agency, the Giants needed to find a replacement, but went for a less-powerful option, whose strengths are more speed and defense. However, it doesn't look like Aoki will be batting lead-off for the Giants, as he did with Kansas City - that role remains in the hands of Angel Pagan. Still, if he can reproduce the .349 on-base percentage, with almost as many walks as strikeouts (43:49), he should be productive enough to justify his relatively-low cost of $4 million. That's even if he also reproduces the solitary home-run hit by Aoki over his 491 at-bats during the 2014 season.

5. Diamondbacks 1.2 WAR (#25)

Everyday starter: Mark Trumbo (1.0)
Backup: Ender Inciarte (0.2)

No evidence to back this up, but I have a theory that we traded for Trumbo in a mistaken belief the DH was about to be added to the National League. He'd be perfect in that role, but unfortunately, his limited defensive range all but wiped out any positives from his offensive production last year. We have to keep our fingers crossed that resulted from the slew of health issues experienced by Trumbo. The projections don't think Inciarte would be any better, which is disappointing, but I guess, given his appearance out of almost nowhere in 2014, it's not too surprising. As noted before, there is no projection for Yasmany Tomas, so who knows if he'll fit in to this picture.

Conclusions

Looks like another area where we have to hope for the best. However, there are at least several ways in which "the best" could happen. Perhaps the best-case scenario, for the team's long-term success, sees Trumbo returning to being a 30-homer guy, and bringing a nice haul at the trade deadline [again: long-term success. I'm taking it as read for the purposes of this paragraph that the Diamondbacks will be out of contention]. That opens the door for Tomas to return to left-field, while Jake Lamb takes over at third-base, and Inciarte proves that 2014 wasn't a fluke, adopting a roaming fourth outfielder role and torching right-handed pitching.

The story so far

Below, you'll find a chart summarizing the findings, which we'll update as we continue this series. For each position, we have awarded the teams a rating of between one and five stars, depending on how strong they are projected to be at the position. Generally, a five-star rating requires them to be among the best in the majors; a four-star one is clearly one of strength; three stars would be about average; two stars is a position of concern; and one star is a gurgling vortex of suck.

	ARIZONA	COLORADO	LOS ANGELES	SAN DIEGO	SAN FRANCISCO
First base
Second base
Shortstop
Third base
Left field
Center field
Right field
Catcher
Starter #1
Starter #2
Starter #3
Starter #4
Starter #5
Closer
Bullpen

The Padresmade their final offer to pitcher James Shields yesterday.  Now they're waiting for his decision.  A few other teams have tried to enter the bidding for Shields but have gained little traction in Twitter mentions.  If it were up to Twitter rumors, Shields would already be wearing a bland Padres jersey right now.

Shields thought about his options while we were all sleeping last night.

James Shields was considering a contract offer from #Padres as recently as the last 12 hours, source confirms. @FOXSports

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) February 8, 2015

He may put off the decision and pull another all nighter tonight.

Sounds like James Shields' decision could now come either today or Mon. Believe he was told early Saturday that Padres had made final offer.

— Dennis Lin (@dennistlin) February 8, 2015

Jim Bowden is pretty confident that Shields will end up in San Diego.

.@JimBowden_ESPN: "I expect him (Shields) to sign with the Padres in the next 48 hours."

— MLB Network Radio (@MLBNetworkRadio) February 8, 2015

James Shields spent all 9 seasons of his career in the AL and that will soon change…#Padres source sounds confident they’ll land Shields

— Jim Bowden (@JimBowden_ESPN) February 8, 2015

I am expecting Shields deal to reach the finish the line in the 4-year 72-80 million dollar range. #Padres

— Jim Bowden (@JimBowden_ESPN) February 8, 2015

It'd be a huge upset if the Padres don't get Shields at this point.  I for one will be really upset.

It would be a big upset if the Padres don't get James Shields. Multiple GMs who have inquired on Shields believe he ends up in San Diego.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 8, 2015

Buster Olney considers the Padres move a big risk, but the only other option is to continue to finish third or fourth place in the division.

The San Diego Padres' offseason makeover might not be complete - MLB - ESPN

This morning, things are well among the re-energized San Diego fan base, and if the Padres make the playoffs, then the moves of Preller and Dee will pay off. But there is risk, too -- a lot of it -- for a team that doesn't have a lot of money to spend relative to their division rivals. Their chips are stacked in the middle of the table.

Once we figure out Shields' final destination then we'll need to find out which Padre doesn't know what "impasse" means.

One Padres player asked what an "impasse" meant.

— Dennis Lin (@dennistlin) February 8, 2015

I almost didn't make it out to UTC for the Padres Caravan's first pep rally yesterday. After sleeping in and having problems with my garage door opener, I was lucky to get to the mall with just minutes to spare. Well, I thought I had minutes to spare. It seems the team was having too much fun playing with puppies and got a late start, so the event didn't get going until about 11:10. The delay wasn't so bad, though. The Pad Squad was there handing out some free stuff to the crowd, including those squishy balls they toss into the stands at Petco and a few of last year's giveaway items.

When it was almost time to start the party, the Petco Park Drumline came out to warm up the hundred or so fans in attendance. Those are the guys you see at the ballpark laying down some sick beats on trash cans. After all that, it was finally time to bring in the players. Padres Social Hour host Jesse Agler introduced Matt Kemp, Andrew Cashner, Derek Norris, Ian Kennedy, Wil Myers, Clint Barmes, and Joaquin Benoit. For those keeping score at home, Kemp, Cashner, and Myers drew the biggest cheers.

Before talking to the players about the upcoming season, Agler sat down with Padres owner Tom Seidler. The ownership group is really excited about the team and blah blah blah marketing blah blah blah. The best part of their conversation was when Seidler noted how many people in the crowd were wearing Padres shirts. Agler, without missing a beat, asked "And what color are those shirts?" For the record, I think the blue/camo/brown split was around 50/25/25.

After Seidler left, there were Q&As with the players in attendance. Norris announced that while he trimmed his beard before last month's press conference, he's putting away the clippers for the next six months. Facial hair fans, you are in for a treat. Speaking of luxurious beards, Cashner's is looking fine. He's been in town for the last month working out with Tyson Ross getting ready for the season. He and Agler talked a little bit about pitchers as hitters, and Cashner wasn't shy when asked who the best hitter in the rotation was. He loves to hit, and he's looking forward to picking up a few more stolen bases in 2015, too.

And then, in my personal favorite part of the event, a young fan was brought on stage to play a game with Cashner. The two were given a Nerf bow, and the Friar stood on the opposite end of the stage with an apple on his head. First to knock it off wins. Cashner may be the practiced hunter, but his competition was the first to connect, cleanly knocking the apple to the ground.

Andrew Cashner and a young fan playing William Tell with the @Padres Friar. pic.twitter.com/AHVOX2JSy7

— Richard (@gdarklighter) February 7, 2015

Kemp's conversation was pretty light, with him talking about how excited he was to go back to Dodger Stadium on opening day and do some damage with his bat. But mostly he just flashed those pearly whites and charmed the crowd. Benoit and Kennedy talked about the joys of better run support and the success of the bullpen last year (60-1 when leading after 6 innings). Barmes and Myers talked about... well, honestly, I don't really remember.

All in all, it was a pretty fun event. Kind of like a miniature FanFest to help us survive these last two months before Opening Day. Baseball! It's almost here!

It's been a busy offseason down in San Diego as the Padres add another piece to the revamped roster.

The Padres have signed right-handed pitcher James Shields to a four-year, $75 million deal, including a club option for a fifth year. Both sides have verbally agreed to terms, and an official announcement will come this week, pending a physical.

A San Diego native, Shields will provide a relatively young Padres team stability and veteran leadership in their rotation. Since 2007, the 33-year-old has yet to miss the 200-inning mark in any single season, while logging a total of 1,785 innings, the most in the majors during that span. For his career, Shields has accumulated 31.6 fWAR over nine full seasons in the big leagues thanks to a 3.72 FIP.

Shields is expected to anchor a Padres rotation that includes Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, and Andrew Cashner. The former Ray and Royal will also join a list of known commodities who have arrived in San Diego this offseason, including Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Derek Norris, as general manager A.J. Preller looks to turn a Padres team that ranked dead last in the majors last season in runs scored into a contender.

We profiled Shields back in Novemeber and wrote in January that either he or Max Scherzer would make sense for the pitching-rich Mets—if only the team were money-rich, too.

The Yankees were being honest about not being interested in James Shields, as he will be taking his pitching talents to the Padres. Pitchers and catchers report in Gritty Gutty Brett Gardner days.

Looks like we will see Shields in San Diego.

Comments of the Day

A possible tagline: "This spring, you'll smell a lot more than romance!" Perhaps you can come up with a better tagline!

There is still hope for CC Sabathia. Perhaps just a fool's hope though.

GIF of the Day

T'was no GIF yesterday, ladies and gentlemen.

Honorable Mod Mention

Harlan won the only two COTD awards yesterday, so he earns the HMM award for a second day in a row.

• If you were running the Yankees, would you have given James Shields that kind of deal?
• More romantic dinner: Home cooked meal, night out at a favorite/nice restaurant, White Castle's Valentine's Day Special, or other?

I'm not gonna lie, I cannot resist singing this song. Especially around the end of it. I've definitely gotten some looks when people drive past me on the highway. As always, please link us your Song of the Day.

Feel free to use this as your open thread for the day. How do you feel now that Shields is in San Diego?

Magic Magic Magic

James Shields at long last has found a home, and it's with A.J. Preller's maverick Padres. After making so many additions, does Shields put San Diego over the top? Unfortunately, it's not too likely.

Around 2 AM Eastern Standard Time, SB Nation's own Chris Cotillo reported that James Shields has finally signed a contract, and the lucky winners are the San Diego Padres. According to CBS' Jon Heyman, the deal is worth $75 million over four years, with an option for a fifth year. He represents the cherry on top of an offseason that’s seen the team undergo a total makeover at the hands of new GM A.J. Preller.

Shields is latest major addition for #Padres, joining Kemp, Myers, J-Upton, Norris, Middlebrooks, and Morrow this offseason.

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) February 9, 2015

That’s quite an impressive group of players, and they join pieces such as Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, Ian Kennedy, Jedd Gyorko and Will Venable. Indeed, San Diego should be the proud owners of one of the strongest pitching staffs in the game, backed up by a robust relief corps and that shiny new hard-hitting outfield. There’s still a gaping wide hole in this team, though, and that resides in the infield.

Though Gyorko is a good candidate to bounce back from an underwhelming season, the other three positions figure to be occupied by some combination of Yonder Alonso, Tommy Medica, Alexi Amarista, Clint Barmes, Yangervis Solarte, and Will Middlebrooks. That’s hardly an inspiring group. It gets worse when it’s considered that Amarista and Barmes, two glove-first players, will be making up a platoon at shortstop, while Alonso and Medica will be doing the same at first. Solarte was a nice story for part of 2014, but fizzled out and finished around league average. And Middlebrooks has plenty of upside, but he’s also had plenty of shots to show he can hit at the big league level before. Perhaps a move to the NL may help his cause, but it’s hard to get one’s hopes up.

In short, this infield is an offensive black hole waiting to happen. Sure, they’ll recoup some value through defense. However, these are four positions’ worth of at-bats we’re talking about here. Here are San Diego’s ZiPS projections, and each of the infielder’s projected wOBA.

That’s simply unacceptable for a team that has aspirations of contention. The Padres will be leaning heavily on their outfield and Norris to pull the offensive load, and on the rotation to shut down opposing lineups. That strategy could also backfire in a hurry. Wil Myers missed quite a chunk of time in 2014 with a wrist injury, and those kinds of injuries have a habit of lingering. Andrew Cashner has failed to top 175 innings in the Major Leagues, and only managed 123.1 last year. 41.2% of all pitches thrown by Tyson Ross last year were sliders, and heavy usage of that pitch has been linked to arm injuries.Then of course there’s Matt Kemp, whose trade to San Diego nearly fell through when he failed his physical upon the finding of arthritis in both his hips. That condition certainly won’t aid his already awful defense, and he's been a walking one-man physical therapy ward for years now.

Then when the defensive struggles of Upton and Myers are considered, as well as the sheer size of the outfield at Petco Park, a whole lot of runs are going to be surrendered by those three. ZiPS gives the three of them a cumulative DEF forcast of -22, for what it’s worth. Also, Derek Norris has never been regarded as a good defender behind the plate, or a good controller of the running game.

Nearly every component of the Padres roster comes with a serious caveat. The outfield could hit really well (if they stay healthy, and they’ll probably make fools of themselves on defense). The infield could defend very well (but they’re not going to hit worth a damn). The rotation could be an absolute weapon (if they stay healthy, and don’t give significant starts to their very shaky depth after dealing away a good amount of young big-league ready arms). If absolutely everything breaks right and A.J. Preller makes another big buy at the trade deadline, this could be a formidable club. But I wouldn’t put a whole lot of money on it. The Padres and Preller’s grand experiment look like a whole lot of smoke without much fire.

ZiPS projections and all other statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. ZiPS projections are created by ESPN's Dan Szymborski.

Nicolas Stellini is a contributor at Beyond the Box Score and a member of the IWBAA. You can find him on Twitter @StelliniTweets, or email him at stellinin1@gmail.com.

So the Yankees released their list of non-roster invitees to spring training and it seemed like the team would be set at that point. They didn't bring much in the way of rotation depth, assigning Chris Capuano as the de facto fifth starter and Bryan Mitchell being the only pitcher capable of usurping him. Now they've added another guy into the equation by signing right-handed pitcher Kyle Davies to a minor league deal.

You might remember Davies as the pitcher who surrendered Alex Rodriguez's 500th home run back in 2007. He's been an above-average starter over the length of his seven-year MLB career exactly one time and has not reached the majors over the last three years. Clearly he isn't very good. He missed the 2012 season with a shoulder issue and spent the 2013 and 2014 seasons in the Twins and Indians organizations. Now at 31 years old, the Yankees must see him as a potential Triple-A rotation option, given his ability to eat innings (183.2 in 2010, 154.1 in 2014) because there's no way he has a chance to make the major league team.

It remains to be seen whether he will also receive an invite to spring training, but it likely won't make a difference. The Yankees already have Scott Baker, and since he's always been a better pitcher than Davies with a higher upside, he will likely get a shot first. If Kyle Davies ends up pitching for the 2015 Yankees, it means something very terrible has gone wrong, or it could be similar to the Jeff Francis cameo from last year and then he's gone. I hope you're all ready for that Sporcle quiz.

The deal actually raises the question about whether or not the team is actually done at this point. There aren't many game-changing options left with James Shields signing with the Padres, but several top free agents remain unsigned. I have to wonder whether the likes of Dayan Viciedo, Everth Cabrera, Brandon Beachy, Kevin Correia, Matt Guerrier, Matt Lindstrom, Dustin McGowan, Brian Wilson, Franklin Morales, or Joe Thatcher could possibly find their way into the organization via minor league deals before the start of spring training. The Yankees showed great restraint this Winter, so every little bit is going to be needed to help fill the holes that are still apparent.

James Shields is now a Padre. Now we can turn our attention to the upcoming season.

Baseball is not just wacky during the season. It's wacky during the winter, too. Three months ago, the following twelve players received $15.3 million qualifying offers from their 2014 clubs:

• Michael Cuddyer
• Pablo Sandoval
• Max Scherzer
• Victor Martinez
• Francisco Liriano
• Russell Martin
• Hanley Ramirez
• Nelson Cruz
• James Shields
• David Robertson
• Melky Cabrera
• Ervin Santana

That's not not the wacky part. Imagine, however, if someone told you three months ago that only one of those players would sign with an N.L. West club this offseason, and crazier yet, that one would be James Shields inking a deal with the Padres! Crazy right?

Michael Cuddyer didn't take Colorado's qualifying offer. Pablo Sandoval left San Francisco for Boston despite each club offering about the same amount of cash. The Dodgers let Hanley Ramirez walk in favor of better defense and didn't get involved in this game, and the Padres went nuts with a roster overhaul capped by this signing today.

It's always tough to figure what's going to happen during an offseason before Thanksgiving. I'm sure even the clubs are caught off guard quite often, but the way the N.L. West evolved this winter is still shocking in some ways.

You have one club who's won the division two years in a row but felt it needed to make significant changes to its roster defensively after getting bounced by the Cardinals in the postseason in back to back years. You have another club who's been a .500 team over the last two seasons (324 games) but is bringing back largely the same roster for the third year in a row thanks to extremely well-timed hot streaks. You have the Padres who have tried to aggressively rebuild the entire team in one winter, the Rockies who seem to be waiting on what they have within to get healthy or develop from the farm, and the Diamondbacks who ... Well, I don't know what the Diamondbacks are doing.

As a group though, the N.L. West clubs represent a fascinating difference in approaches heading into 2015, and I can't wait to see how they each play out when we get to the summer months. If the winter was this odd, I can only imagine what the actual season has in store for us.

Links

Here's the actual story with some details on the James Shields signing. A few quick thoughts:

1) Shields got a four-year deal in the $72-$76 million neighborhood. That comes to $18-$19 million a year. So IF Shields really did get a five-year $110 million deal from somebody -- a report that gets harder and harder to believe every day - he REALLY didn't want to pitch for that club. If true, Shields left a third of the guaranteed money in that contract on the table.

2) The top eight clubs in payroll last season were as follows: The Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Yankees, the Philadelphia Phillies, the Boston Red Sox, the Detroit Tigers, the Los Angeles Angels, the San Francisco Giants, and the Texas Rangers. Now these clubs are obviously all in different stages of the success cycle, but these are the bullies with the deepest pockets on the block, and none of them landed what I would classify as a top of the rotation pitcher this offseason (borrowing the chance that a Cole Hamels deal gets done before opening day).

Sure, the Red Sox went after No. 3 guys like they were going out of style and the Dodgers made a couple of potentially shrewd rotation signings, but for this entire group to come up empty in the Lester, Scherzer, and Shields sweepstakes is pretty wild when you think about it.

3) With the Shields signing, the draft order is now officially set, and the Rockies are in better shape than any team in baseball with the exception of the Houston Astros, and the Astros are only in that position because they failed to sign the No. 1 overall pick last year. The Rockies will now officially pick 3rd, 27th, 38th, and 44th. Other than Houston, no other club has more than two picks in the top 53 slots. This gives Colorado an excellent chance to improve on an already above average farm system.

4) Now that the last major piece is off the free agent market, it finally feels like the offseason is coming to an end. Spring training is still not quite here yet, and more trades are still on the table, but without Shields floating around, the MLB landscape develops a different feel. You can almost taste the start of 2015 now.

Mike Petriello of fangraphs tips his cap to the Padres for signing Shields, but also notes that this doesn't solve the team's much bigger problem.

Which players do you hate the most? John Paschal has some good options.

Finally, Patrick Saunders has some ugly numbers for the Rockies over the last few seasons. They'll obviously need to turn most of these around if 2015 is going to be a better year.

He will, however, be in the NL West, having signed a four-year deal in San Diego, with a team option for a fifth year.

It has been interesting to compare the approaches taken by San Diego and Arizona this winter, both teams having fired their GMs after three-plus years without a winning season. Under their new general manager, A.J. Preller, the Padres have been ferociously aggressive, picking up Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers and now Shields. In contrast, the D-backs dealt away both halves of their Opening Day battery, and the only acquisition for Arizona which could be even faintly described as "win now" (in the sense of free-agent signings or trading prospects for proven talent) was probably the Jeremy Hellickson deal,

The terms of the deal have not yet been confirmed, but reports indicate it appears to be around the $72-76 million range for four years, and means there will be a significant jump in San Diego payroll. Depending on how it's structured, this will likely mean the Padres start the year between $105-110 million, which would easily be a team record, representing around a 20% increase over the previous highest, set last year. Of course, it's also true that San Diego was a lot closer to contention than Arizona, having posted a 77-85 record last season: they finished less than half the distance from a wild-card spot we did, 11 games out as opposed to our 24.

The Padres will have to tiptoe financially through the tulips for a bit - especially as they have to take on the weight of Kemp after this year, where the Dodgers are chipping in $18 million. However, they have some flexibility coming back at the end of 2015, when Ian Kennedy, Carlos Quentin, Joaquin Benoit and Cory Luebke are all free-agents or have team options. Still, as our colleagues over at GLB point out, this is "by far the largest contract the Padres have ever awarded, eclipsing the $52 million 3-year extension Jake Peavy was signed to in December of 2007." That's something else this off-season has in common with ours, where Yasmany Tomas became our biggest free-agent.

I believe Shields is also the first free-agent to sign for in excess of $50 million after the calendar turned to February. It has certainly been a process, and both the length and cost of the contract appear to have dropped from predictions at the start of the winter that he "could be in line for a five-year pact worth $100MM or more." The Cubs and Marlins were apparently the other teams that were most in the running for Shields, both sides offering him three years plus a vesting option. The Padres' commitment to an extra year appears to have helped - the pitcher-friendly nature of Petco wouldn't have done any harm to their chances either, I suspect.

But, all told, I think it's a bullet dodged for the Diamondbacks. I laid out the reasons last month why I don't think he was a good fit for us, so I won't bother rehashing those again. "Win now" moves like this do make more sense for the Padres than us. Perhaps it foreshadows the kind of deal we might be making next winter, if this season sees an improved record, with us sitting in a similar position just below the .500 mark, as San Diego currently are.

If we've learned one thing about Padres GM A.J. Preller it's that he's constantly juggling acquisition options and at any given time he's got more than one in the air.  Not long after catching pitcher James Shields last night, the Padres have turned their attention to Cuban phenom infielder Yoan Moncada.  He has a private workout scheduled for today tweets Jeff Passan.

The Padres are taking over the world: Sources say San Diego is working out Yoan Moncada today and plans to be aggressive in bidding for him.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 9, 2015

I'm curious where they'll work out Moncada though since Petco Park's field is configured as a motocross track at the present moment.  I'm sure they'll work something out at an undisclosed location.

MLB Trade Rumors does a good job explaining how Moncada's estimated $30-40 million bonus could translated to $60 -$80 million after maximum overage penalties.

Padres Planning Aggressive Pursuit Of Yoan Moncada – MLB Trade Rumors

Moncada is perhaps the most coveted international prospect in history, as the switch-hitting, five-tool infielder is rumored to be in line for a bonus of anywhere from $30-40MM.

However, the maximum penalties, which trigger at a 15 percent overage, include a 100 percent tax on every dollar spent over the pool limit as well as the loss of the ability to sign an international amateur for more than $300K in any of the two subsequent signing periods. Because of the overage taxes, a $30-40MM bonus would really mean a $60-80MM commitment.

Seriously, who are these guys? They're not the Padres we used to know.

Recently told that Padres might not be be scared off by the idea of having a $300k limit/int'l prospect for the next two signing periods.

— Dennis Lin (@dennistlin) February 9, 2015

With the final big free agent signing in James Shields going to the San Diego Padres early this morning, the offseason circus has unofficially come to a close (although Mark Ellis is still on the market). There was a smidgen of hope that the Blue Jays would be in on Shields, but most people seemed realistic enough to concur that the team would probably bust out the chequebook on a relief pitcher before Shields became a legitimate target.

While the terms of the contract are not fully available, it's been reported that the deal is for four years worth a total of $75 million with an option year as well. For a pitcher that can be counted on to provide somewhere between 3.5-4.5 WAR each season, $18.5 million annually isn't too crazy at all. When you factor in the age issue (Shields recently turned 33-years-old) and the fact that he also requires a forfeited draft pick, the deal begins to seem just about fair value.

Since we're all Blue Jays fans, let's consider how this deal would have looked from our point of view. Obviously if the deal has no back-loading then the payroll would have shot up $18.5 million this year, which may have been a non-starter for the front office whether you like it or not. After the 2015 season though, the Blue Jays financial flexibility loosens up a bit with the departure of Mark Buehrle and his $20 million contract and possibly R.A. Dickey as well ($12 million option with $1 million buyout). On the flip side, Russell Martin's $7 million contract in 2015 nearly doubles next season so some payroll room would be eliminated.

As you can see below (ignore the Casey Janssen error), after the 2016 season the Blue Jays have very few contracts on their books and they won't have a ton of expensive arbitration-eligible players either.

via Sportrac.com

For all the talk of the Blue Jays having their hands tied financially, it's a bit of hyperbole. A slightly back-loaded contract wouldn't increase their $130ish million payroll annually that they currently seem to be hitting a glass ceiling with. After even the most basic of analysis, it really does beg the question of what has stopped the team this offseason from being more aggressive in their pursuit of upgrades.

At the State of the Franchise only a few days ago, the team seemed utterly unsure of how their rotation and bullpen was going to end up looking which makes you wonder why they decided to let some affordable contracts pass them by in the last few months. Looking for bargains has done wonders for the team in the recent past, but at some point it's going to take real money to bring proven talent up to Toronto. It's hardly fair to bring out the pitchforks against a front office that signed Russell Martin only a few months ago but without a supporting cast, this core of players could end their days in Toronto asking what could have been.

With the confusing handling of the budget in the past few years, it makes you wonder if the team is one losing season away from a complete rebuild, since it's certainly expensive to be just mediocre in the the MLB. Sure, James Shield wasn't a piece the Blue Jays HAD to have and maybe he didn't want to venture north of the border anyway, but if four years and $75 million was too high of a price to pay then how much money is there really left to be spent anyway.

It turns out that while the Miami Marlins eventually bowed out of the James Shields sweepstakes, they at least made competitive offers until the end.

The Miami Marlins eventually did not land James Shields, as the free agent righty ended up near his hometown by signing a four-year contract worth $75 million with the San Diego Padres. As expected, Shields took the four-year offer that was available to him and ended up with what was likely close to his market value for four years, putting him at almost $19 million a season.

For months, the Marlins had stayed in the periphery of the Shields race, and in recent weeks, there were rumors that the Fish were among the few suitors involved for his services. The Fish eventually did not get their man, but according to various sources, it did not mean they weren't trying. Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reported that the Fish were competitive until the $70 million mark.

Sometime Saturday afternoon, when the Shields bidding got to four-years and the $70 million range, the #Marlins knew they were out.

— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) February 9, 2015

Miami avoided a longer-term commitment than they would have preferred, as the franchise likely offered a three-year deal perhaps with a fourth-year option, the exact sort of contract that would have made sense for Miami. The Fish did not want to commit further and forfeit this year's draft pick.

To their credit #Marlins didn't risk blowing up future payrolls with overpay on Shields, who also would have cost 12th overall pick.

— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) February 9, 2015

The Marlins were linked to Shields throughout the offseason, and it seems that was rightfully the case. Frisaro reports that Shields kept an eye on the team throughout this process.

From what I've heard, Shields closely tracked #Marlins offseason, impressed by direction. In the end #Padres made best offer

— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) February 9, 2015

That is totally within reason for both sides. Miami stated their price, did not want to commit to four years, and got out of the race when it came down to that. For a 33-year-old pitcher who may have a couple of effective seasons remaining under his belt at his price tag, that is more than a reasonable assumption. Shields may be the rare Mark Buehrle type who can sustain success and longevity for another four years into his age-37 campaign, but Miami has limited funds as of right now and they were unwilling to hedge that bet for the sake of 2015 and 2016, when Shields is most likely to be effective.

However, as Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports, Miami was more willing than expected to bet on Shields.

The perception of some involved in the talks is that the Marlins might have had the highest offer out on Shields, but Shields picked SD.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 9, 2015

Shields may have taken the four-year deal for less yearly money, and Miami may have offered a three-year contract with more per-year salary. Could the Marlins have offered three years and $60 million and had that rejected in favor of the security of a four-year deal? Certainly you would expect with such competing offers, the proximity of San Diego to Shields's home in southern California also likely played a role. Either way, the Marlins were probably in the dogfight for his services until the bitter end.

Are you happy with the results? Do you think the Marlins were right to avoid Shields at this price? Let us know in the comments!

After adding the 33-year old veteran, the Padres are reportedly in on Yoan Moncada, too.

James Shields is officially a San Diego Padre. It took a while, but Shields ultimately opted to remain close to his home. Time will tell if San Diego has done enough to make the postseason, but some writers feel the Padres are now in a good position to make the playoffs:

-Padres squarely in postseason hunt with addition of James Shields | Big League Stew - Yahoo Sports

Looking at the bigger picture, we wouldn't say adding Shields is the final piece in a championship puzzle, but he's an important piece if San Diego hopes to end its eight-year postseason drought.

-The Padres should still trade for Cole Hamels - SBNation.com

The Padres just spent $75 million to sign James Shields. They're probably done, but let's ask if they should be.

-Why James Shields is a risk the hyperactive Padres had to take | New York Post

Nevertheless, the decision – under new general manager A.J. Preller – to aggressively accumulate talent this offseason with Kemp, Shields, Justin Upton, Wil Myers and others has turned the Padres from one of the majors’ least relevant teams to the talk of the game.

-Could the Royals have afforded James Shields? - Royals Review

The Royals did not appear to show serious interest in any of the three free agents, despite all three being key parts of the pennant-winning ballclub. The feeling was the Royals simply couldn't afford James Shields, and wanted to go in a different direction in right-field and designated hitter.

Are the Padres planning to take over the world?

The Padres are taking over the world: Sources say San Diego is working out Yoan Moncada today and plans to be aggressive in bidding for him.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 9, 2015

Padres relevant but not necessarily good?

I'm still not sure the Padres are good, but they're at least relevant, & that's a big step for them. It's fun to see. http://t.co/53ovodnzD8

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) February 9, 2015

Shields, Padres reportedly agree to 4-year deal http://t.co/s2Age1ia03 via @mlb So the Pads are more than relevant, they're really good

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) February 9, 2015

James Sheilds still doesn't make the #Padres contenders http://t.co/5JmQAS6vl9pic.twitter.com/Q74OkNZdgL

— Beyond the Box Score (@BtBScore) February 9, 2015

padres have had one of most interesting offseasons in recent memory: j. upton, kemp, myers, shields, others. a threat.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) February 9, 2015

Kevin Millar likes the deal:

That NL West gonna be sweet this year #Padres sign James Shields to 4yr deal Option for 5th yr @ChrisRose and yes I nailed it #OnlyFacts

— Kevin Millar (@KMillar15) February 9, 2015

Could the deal give small market teams hope? Possibly:

In SD, James Shields will be a walking reminder of what a dedicated small market can accomplish. Rays, Royals, Padres?

— Lee Jenkins (@SI_LeeJenkins) February 9, 2015

Padres only have one more rotation slot to fill. And they have options:

This essentially means the #Padres go to ST with one rotation opening, No. 5 -- and that's likely Morrow or Despaigne.

— Corey Brock (@FollowThePadres) February 9, 2015

Padres are open to spending, too.

James Shields’ deal (4 years, $72M-75M) will be largest in Padres history, beating Jake Peavy’s 3-year, $52M deal in 2007-08 offseason

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) February 9, 2015

Shields is not really great with the bat, though:

In 50 career PA, James Shields has hit .213/.245/.234. Only 13 strikeouts. Neat little bonus of him moving to the NL.

— Jesse Spector (@jessespector) February 9, 2015

Shields must have really wanted to go home:

One person involved in the James Shields talks said he had another offer on the table for more than SD's -- a 4 yr., $80m offer.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 9, 2015

Who won the Wil Myers/Shields trade?

The Padres won the Wil Myers / James Shields trade

— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) February 9, 2015

The Padres just spent $75 million to sign James Shields. They're probably done, but let's ask if they should be.

The Padres are better than they were before the weekend started. They're much better than they were before the offseason started. Last week, we asked "Should the Padres sign James Shields or trade for Cole Hamels?" The answer was Shields, who was the safest solution in a way. Spending $75 million can never be risk free, but sitting still after a frenzied offseason and coming up just short would have been the bigger risk. The Padres spent all offseason futzing around with a 15-puzzle, and there was no sense putting it down when they got to 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 14. Look at how much better the Padres are, everyone.

Now we need to ask ourselves why they shouldn't get greedy and trade for Cole Hamels.

Oh, there are objections to be raised, sure. Our job is to shoot them down, one by one. Why shouldn't the Padres trade for Cole Hamels, native of the greater San Diego area?

The rotation is full

If the rotation is full of pitchers who are better than Cole Hamels, this is a valid objection. The rotation is not full of pitchers who are better than Hamels, probably because there has never been a rotation in the history of baseball filled with five pitchers better than Hamels is right now. As such, Hamels would improve the Padres drastically.

The Padres were ravaged by elbow locusts, and it would be charming if they were counting wholly on Josh Johnson or Brandon Morrow, but that's not exactly what they're doing. They're not counting on anyone specifically to fill their last rotation spot capably, they're just counting on someone doing it. It could be Johnson, Morrow, Casey Kelly, Cory Luebke, Odrisamer Despaigne, Robbie Erlin, or Matt Wisler for all they care. It's a quantity-of-quality thing, so technically, yes, the Padres rotation is stuffed. They've planned well.

Except there isn't a pitcher up there that makes you think, "Well, they can't drop him from the rotation." That means the rotation isn't full enough to keep Hamels out of it. Try another objection.

Hamels is too expensive

The Padres just dropped $75 million on a starting pitcher. They are also the Padres. Shouldn't they be out of money? Who ... what happened to the real Padres? Somewhere, the real Padres are stuffed in someone's trunk, alone and crying, and you're just sitting there like nothing is wrong.

Whatever the case, the Padres aren't acting like they're out of money.

The Padres are taking over the world: Sources say San Diego is working out Yoan Moncada today and plans to be aggressive in bidding for him.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 9, 2015

If the Padres have enough money to be interested in Moncada, who will cost $60 million to $80 million, then the Padres have enough money for Hamels, who is owed $96 million over the next four years. It's more than just stray tweets that make us think that, though. Here's the Padres' committed payroll for the next few years:

2015: $57 million
2016: $44 million
2017: $46 million
2018: $50 million

That's not including the arbitration-eligible players, but you get the idea. The Padres have enough flexibility to take Hamels on and still be active in future free agent markets.

The Padres shouldn't trade prospects

Prospects are neat. Sometimes they turn into valuable major leaguers! Very, very rarely, they turn into major leaguers as valuable as Cole Hamels. That's exciting.

The Padres tipped over into win-now territory with the Shields signing, though. They should be focusing on how to make the current team better, not worrying about pre-arbitration players giving them flexibility in two or three years. If there's a way to turn Wisler -- about 10th on the starting pitching depth chart, remember -- and others into a few extra wins for 2015, they should seriously explore the idea. The most impressive part of the Padres' hyperactivity is how few prospects they gave up. Jesse Hahn is talented, but the package they sent over for Justin Upton was completely underwhelming. You can argue that the Marlins gave more talent up to get Dee Gordon than the Padres have shed all offseason.

Now, if the Phillies are really holding out for Andrew Cashner, the Padres should probably ignore that. The goal is to build a low-risk, high-reward team, not exchange some of the potential reward for a bigger one. Cashner is a part of the gamble that made the Padres get Upton, Shields, and Matt Kemp in the first place. The same goes for Wil Myers, most likely. But if prospects will get a deal done, there's no sense in the Padres waiting around until July to see what they need. They could get one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. Shipping is free, too.

The good news (for the Padres, not the Phillies) is they don't have an easily identifiable monster like Kris Bryant or Joey Gallo to gum up trade talks because they're untouchable. Every prospect the Padres have should be a possibility, and if they trade three of their best ones for Hamels, they'll still have a bushel of them. The Padres have built a roster that has clearly made them more concerned with 2015 than any other season. They shouldn't fight that feeling.

There are cheaper ways to make the team better

Possibly. Hector Olivera would make a lot of sense for them, and he fills a need that's more pressing than the rotation at a fraction of the cost. Moncada would give the Padres one of the best prospects in baseball, which could make them more comfortable trading prospects at the deadline.

Except don't make the mistake of underrating Hamels. He's been worth five wins or more for five straight seasons. He's made 30 starts or more for seven straight seasons. Here's a list of pitchers with as many WAR through their age-30 season. It's filled with Hall of Famers and All-Stars, and while the Padres don't want to acquire players for what they have done instead of what they will do, there is no way for the Padres to improve more than they would with Hamels. There's no way to come that close, most likely.

There are cheaper, saner ways to improve the Padres. If they finish a game or two out of the postseason race, though, cheaper and saner aren't going to make anyone comfortable.

That's ... I think that's it

Those are silly objections. The Padres should get greedy.

There was a point in the offseason when the Padres were in the middle of Pablo Sandoval rumors, and it was hilarious. What would the Padres do with him, hyuk hyuk? Look at them now. There are three position players left in the Padres' lineup from last year, and they've added a one-year contract (Upton) and spent money on players whose value is almost certainly weighted toward the present (Kemp, Shields). If you have a good objection to them not trading for Hamels, let's hear it.

After 49,389 moves, the Padres could still make one more trade and have a new best player on the team. From here, it looks like there isn't a good reason for them to not keep this impressive, restless offseason going for just one more transaction.

The Padres improvements during this off-season have definitely been exciting but the acquisition of James Shields early this morning, in my mind, gives them the push they need to finally contend in the NL West.  Suddenly it's at least seems possible that it could happen.  I'm now willing to let my imagination take me to a place where the Padres are in the hunt, not 15 games back at the All-Star Break.  When you take into account that deal cost the Padres in the neighborhood of $76 million and not all the team's best prospects, it looks even better.

The media and blogs like the deal, some though aren't quite convinced that the move was the best use of the team's limited resources.  It leaves the Padres with a relatively small window to succeed, with aging players eating up a good deal of the team's payroll in coming years.  It's certainly a risk, but one I'm willing to take every day of the week.

I'm still collecting reactions from around the internet and if you see more, leave me a link in the comments.  For now we've got a signing that is 82% fresh, on par with such movies as Super 8 and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World.

Apologies to RottenTomatoes.com

James Shields and the Value of Relevance | FanGraphs Baseball
If the Padres end up as a .500ish team, and then have to pay the piper in future years when Upton leaves as a free agent while Shields and Kemp absorb one-third of the team’s payroll, this experiment could easily be viewed as an expensive failure.

James Shields Splash Cements San Diego Padres as 2015 NL Threat | Bleacher Report
But what this signing assures is that the "Big Game" part will arrive with Shields, only as a descriptor for what the Padres will play each day in 2015 rather than as an individual moniker. Shields now in the house. Matt Kemp. Justin Upton. Wil Myers. Derek Norris. Will Middlebrooks. All this while retaining their front three starters Tyson Ross, Ian Kennedy and Andrew Cashner. You bet the Padres will contend in the NL West in 2015.

James Shields Can’t Solve The Biggest Padres Problem | FanGraphs Baseball
They’ve at least taken steps in the right direction this winter, and Shields is yet another one.

James Shields agrees to deal with San Diego Padres - ESPN
The agreement adds one of baseball’s biggest innings-eaters to the Padres, who continued a busy offseason with the deal.

@BusterOlney
Simple facts: in '14, the Padres were arguably the most unwatchable team in the majors. In 2015, the sport will be paying attention to them.

Shields signing makes others worthwhile | UTSanDiego.com
Without adding one pitcher like Shields, it wouldn’t have been enough. We still would have been saying "if." Now Black has another top-flight pitcher, an innings eater, a guy who can stop losing streaks and gives the Padres a rotation that could weather a postseason series.

@dszymborski
Man, 4 for under $80, even with loss of pick 13, is a really excellent price the Padres are getting for James Shields.

Report: Padres Sign James Shields | Padres Public
Anyway, what the Padres get in James Shields is the one thing they definitely needed to become a contender in 2015: a top of the rotation starter.

@PGammo
Ron Fowler's risky investment in Pads future:club 2010 payroll was $38M, Kemp/Shields get $37M in 2017

@UTKrasovic
Smart choice by new Padres RHP James Shields in terms of home ballpark, pitcher-savvy manager, sharp pitching coach, no DH, good trainers.

@AvengingJM
I've never been a fan of the "Big Game James" moniker, but make no mistake about it, the guy eats innings for breakfast. #BreakfastTown

When the Padres announced their promotional schedule a couple weeks ago, there was one detail we were sad to see missing: When would Bobby Cressey be playing the organ? Well, Bobby just posted the dates to his website this evening. The first game he'll be playing is actually before Opening Day: FanFest's exhibition game against the Diablos Rojos will be accompanied by the sweet sounds of live organ music. Following that, he'll be playing all five Wayback Wednesday games, hammering out 80s classics to go with the 1985 uniforms. Can't make it down for a weekday afternoon game? Bobby's wheeling out the organ again for the Labor Day matchup against the Colorado Rockies. But that's not the best part of the news.

The best part is this: If When the Padres make the playoffs this season, we'll be getting live organ music all October long. We love live music with our baseball, so we're thrilled to see Bobby coming back for another year.

The Padres were among the most active teams this offseason and reshaped their roster in the process.

Just a few months ago, the San Diego Padres were one of MLB's least noteworthy teams. They didn't possess much in the way of a storied past, nor a recent track record of success. They didn't have anything resembling a franchise player on their roster (sorry, Ian Kennedy). Perhaps most importantly, the Padres didn't have much to look forward to in the future, either. The wealthy Dodgers and wildly successful Giants ruled the NL West, and neither appeared likely to relinquish their supremacy anytime soon.

But ever since the Padres hired A.J. Preller as their new general manager, San Diego has been the most entertaining place in baseball. The club's remarkable offseason continued Monday when the Padres reportedly agreed to terms with James Shields on a four-year deal.

The signing of Shields put the finishing touches (unless Cole Hamels is next) on what has been a winter of persistent wheeling and dealing for Preller. When the Padres take the field on Opening Day this April, they'll do so with a roster that will be unrecognizable from the team's 2014 version. Here is a rundown of all the comings and goings in San Diego this offseason:

Comings

Once the 2014 season ended, Preller wasted little time in re-shaping the Padres' roster. After weeks of rumors, San Diego landed Matt Kemp and back-up catcher Tim Federowicz from the Dodgers for young backstop Yasmani Grandal and two lesser prospects, agreeing to pay a large portion of Kemp's salary in the process. Sure, Kemp comes with his risks, but the veteran outfielder batted .309/.365/.606 in the second half last season and also gives the Padres the type of recognizable talent they've lacked in recent years.

Preller didn't stop his outfield makeover there, of course. In a span of two days in mid-December, the Padres traded for Wil Myers and Justin Upton, adding two more right-handed power bats to a lineup that lacked any kind of punch in 2014. That Myers was available came as a huge surprise, even if  San Diego had to part with underrated catcher Rene Rivera and young right-hander Burch Smith in the process. Upton cost more young talent, including San Diego's No. 1 overall pick in 2012, Max Fried, but he brings with him a strong track record of production and won't turn 28 until August of next season.

The Padres still weren't done, however. They made two shrewd, under-the-radar moves in trading for A's catcher Derek Norris and young right-hander Brandon Maurer, surrendering expendable pieces in Jesse Hahn and Seth Smith in the process. Norris will immediately take over starting catching duties and give San Diego another above-average bat, while Maurer has the makings of a legitimate back-of-the-bullpen weapon.

Beyond these larger moves, Preller also took one-year flyers on Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson in free agency, and traded for Will Middlebrooks, who still has some offensive upside despite his struggles in Boston the past two seasons.

Goings

The most remarkable part of the Padres' offseason is that they acquired all this talent without giving up any of their top three prospects. Grandal is probably the best player that San Diego traded, and although he is a breakout candidate in 2015, the young backstop remains a player who has shown more potential than production in the major leagues.

Besides Grandal, the best two MLB players that Preller parted with were Rivera and Seth Smith, neither of whom are indispensable to the club's future. Rivera receives great marks for his pitch-framing ability, but has a career on-base percentage of .279 in the big leagues. Smith, meanwhile, is little more than a platoon option against righties even if he had a career year in 2014.

The Padres did trade away a bevy of young talent, the most notable names being Fried and Dustin Peterson, who landed in Atlanta for Upton. Jesse Hahn, Joe Ross, Burch Smith and Joe Wieland are all young arms who likely have major league futures , but each comes with plenty of flaws as well. Given the fickle nature of pitching prospects, the Padres shouldn't feel too sorry for parting with any of them.

Projected 2015 lineup and rotation

With the dust all but settled on a busy offseason, what the Padres now have are the makings of a team that can contend in 2015. They aren't a slam-dunk choice for the NL crown by any means, especially in the competitive NL West, but San Diego can at least expect a much-improved offense and potentially dominant rotation if things break right.

Ultimately, Preller has pushed forward the club's window of contention and done a remarkable job of adding depth to the major league roster.  Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin and Will Venable (along with newcomers Federowicz and Middlebrooks) will help give the Padres plenty of bench options as well. There is plenty of risk here, but Preller has also given San Diego the legitimate means to contend out west both now and over the long-term.

Lineup (bold = new acquisition)

Catcher - Derek Norris
First base - Yonder Alonso
Second Base - Jedd Gyorko
Shortstop - Alexi Amarista
Third base - Yangervis Solarte
Left Field - Matt Kemp
Center Field - Wil Myers
Right Field - Justin Upton

Rotation (bold = new acquisition)

James Shields
Ian Kennedy
Andrew Cashner
Tyson Ross
Brandon Morrow

News and stories about the Seattle Mariners and other analysis from around the league.

Links!

• Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times wonders what the first base position will look like for the Mariners in 2015.
• MLB commissioner Rob Manfred would like to change the way the All-Star Game host is selected.
• Sean Doolittle is expected to be back fairly soon after the season begins.
• In other A's injury news, Oakland hopes pitchers A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker will be ready to go by June.
• The Marlins also think ace Jose Fernandez will be back in action in June.
• The Padres have signed starter James Shields to a multi-year contract.
• Shields might help the Padres, but there is still much work to be done, argues Mike Petriello of Fangraphs.
• The Padres are planning to make a large offer to Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada.
• Meanwhile, Grant Brisbee argues that the Padres should still consider acquiring starter Cole Hamels from the Phillies.
• With Shields signing with San Diego, the 2015 MLB draft order is officially set.