Our Padres will play their first night game of the season tonight as they take on the hated Mariners in Peoria. The televised game will feature a matchup between new Friar Josh Johnson and former Friar Randy Wolf.
Johnson has had a pretty great Spring so far as a Padre, keeping opponents batting .206 while allowing four runs on seven hits through nine innings of work. He has issued only two walks while collecting eight strikeouts. The right-hander had one outing in which he looked off, giving up three runs in the first inning against Cleveland a week and a half ago. But even then he was able to settle down and pitch strongly for the remainder of that outing. Aside from that one inning, JJ has been nails all Spring and although it's a small (miniscule) sample size, it's an encouraging to see that arguably our biggest offseason acquisition is panning out so far.
Johnson's spot in his team's rotation is a given, but his counterpart is another story. Wolf came to Mariners camp as a non-roster invitee after Seattle signed him to a minor league contract last month. The 14-year veteran is working to get back in the game after having to undergo a second Tommy John surgery and missing all of the 2013 season. His Spring hasn't been the smoothest, but he still holds hope that he can make it onto the big league roster come Opening Day. Wolf has given up six runs on 10 hits (four of which were home runs) this Spring, pitching nine total innings over three appearances. The southpaw went 6-10 in 21 games during his stint with the Padres in 2008, posting a 4.74 ERA and quickly becoming a favorite for some fans.
Watch/Listen
FSSD and MLB.TV will televise tonight's contest at 7:05pm, but you can also catch the radio call on The Mighty 1090, Gameday Audio, and At-Bat.
A fan's uninteresting observations from spring training.
Having watched Brett Anderson in Spring Training yesterday, it's clearer than ever that process is more important than results. Working on a routine, preparing in game situations, all of it is more important than the final line, which may or may not fairly represent what happened.
I write, of course, about Brett Anderson's hitting. The same is mostly true about his pitching yesterday: he gave up five runs on eight hits, but was brilliantly efficient through the first three innings. He was a hard-luck victim of a triple in the fifth, which probably should've been ruled a foul ball, but otherwise was reliable on an afternoon where the west wind was pushing the ball to -- or over -- the wall.
But I decided instead to watch Brett Anderson the Hitter. It must be a bizarre feeling to come from the American League, where you pitch and practice in a self-contained world, to the National League, where you're expected to be more or less a complete ballplayer. Whether the designated hitter is good or bad is beside the point (it is, for the record, a sad vestigiality of the era of AstroTurf and multisport stadia). The lords of baseball have spared the NL from the DH so far, and so Brett Anderson was standing on deck with a bat in his hand in Peoria yesterday.
Anderson saw three pitches the first time up before heading back to the dugout. He took the first pitch for a strike, reading it all the way into the catcher's glove, studying the ball's movement like he did while waiting on deck. He fouled off the second pitch, late on its arrival but still making contact. Buoyed by confidence, he swung hard at the third pitch, the bat carrying through the zone while his head looked at the sun-soaked fans above the first base dugout.
The walk back to the dugout was brief, since Peoria doesn't have much foul territory. Larry Walker, at camp as a special instructor, walked by Anderson and spit a sunflower seed, declining to offer any special instructions.
The hitter, like the starting pitcher, is required to shake off early setbacks, and so Anderson found his way to the plate later in the game. Before his at bat, Anderson saw a series of hits battered off of Tyson Ross. Once Jackson William bounced one off the outfield wall, Anderson's name was called (to no applause) and up he strode.
He bunted the first pitch, and it was a nice one. Anderson received the ball delicately and placed it right back to Ross on the infield grass. Ross, the catcher and the first baseman all converged, Ross braked, slipped, fell, and yet the ball still managed to beat Anderson to first. Still, it advanced Williams to third, and this time Anderson returned to the dugout, if not with heroic cheers from his teammates, at least with polite appreciation.
Anderson waited on deck in the 5th, but his turn didn't come, with Williams grounding out to end the top half of the inning. So Anderson led off the 6th, which was stalled while Bud Black waved to his new middle infielders to switch positions. Already, Anderson had coaches adjusting their defense.
Anderson swung on the second pitch, which glanced off the pitcher's glove while current second baseman (and former shortstop) Jace Peterson raced up the middle. The ball fell to Peterson's left, and with that Anderson had his first (practice) base hit as a major leaguer.
His tenure on the bases was brief, as he was cut down scrambling back to the bag after Drew Stubbs hit an infield pop up. Anderson's day on offense was over, but already the "process," the "routine," the all-encompassing "work" was producing results. Brett Anderson, starting pitcher, was becoming Anderson the Hitter.
It's party time for many of us tonight, as a large group of us are headed over to Cody's (sea-townie) spot Gastropod down in SoDo. There's been a really good amount of RSVPs, and depending on how many show up, we should see anywhere from 30-50 people tonight, not including myself, Colin, Nathan, and Jesse.
While we're devouring super foodie stuff of Gastropod's absolutely staggering menu, we'll be consuming the beer from Cody's selection (I'm particularly intrigued by the Oceanic Funk Smoked Sour brewed Konbu Seaweed and Squid Ink.
The Padres will act as the visiting team in today's matchup with the Mariners at Peoria Sports Complex. It'll be exciting to see our boys in action at 7:05 tonight just like a typical regular season night game. We'll be able to watch on FSSD and listen on The Mighty 1090 like a regular season game too!
Another tie game is in the books for the Padres after they played their first night game of the season on Tuesday against the Mariners.
Nine of the ten runs scored between the two teams came off relief pitching after veterans Josh Johnson and Randy Wolf each put up 4+ innings of work. Johnson allowed one run in the bottom of the 3rd on a leadoff homer by Brad Miller. But other than that he was nails, allowing only two more hits and striking out five through 4 1/3 frames. Our Padres couldn't get anything going off former Friar Randy Wolf, who only gave up two hits and two walks through 4 innings.
The first relievers, Charlie Furbush for the M's and Kevin Quackenbush for the Friars, each came into the game in the 5th and pitched scoreless frames. But the 6th is when all the action got underway. In the final four innings of the game, the Padres and Mariners changed leads five times leading up to the end result, a 5-5 tie.
Everth Cabrera led off the top of the 6th with a walk, followed by a single by Chris Denorfia. Jedd Gyorko then hit a line drive double to score Cabrera and move Alex Castellanos (who came in to pinch-run for Deno) over to third. Castellanos scored on a passed ball during the next at-bat to put San Diego on top 2-1.
Huston Street entered in the bottom of the 6th and allowed only a walk in his 2014 debut. The Padres went down in order in the 7th, but the Mariners had other plans. Alex Torres came to the mound in the bottom of the inning and things immediately went awry. He gave up a leadoff single and then threw a couple of wild pitches to allow the runner to advance all the way to third base before then issuing a walk, putting runners at the corners. A stolen base and another walk later, Torres had loaded the bases with just one out. At that point, Buddy Black came to the mound to have a talk with the struggling pitcher, but kept him in the game. A sac fly brought one run home and knotted the game at 2, but that was all the damage the M's would be able to do.
San Diego got back on top in the 8th inning on a 2-RBI double by Carlos Quentin to score Castellanos and Alberto Gonzalez, who had gotten on base via walk and single, respectively.
But Seattle would snatch the lead right back off Tony Sipp in the bottom of the 8th. Miller got his third hit of the night, a 2-out double, which began a three-run rally for the M's. Miller came home on a single by Endy Chavez, who then advanced to second on a wild pitch. But the wildness didn't stop there as Willie Bloomquist singled to score Chavez and then came home himself on an unusually errant throw by Austin Hedges. But Hedges did a brilliant framing job in the next at-bat, resulting in a strikeout by Logan Morrison, who proceeded to run his mouth and get himself ejected. In the 8th inning of a Spring Training game. Right.
Hedges further redeemed himself in the top of the 9th by getting one of those runs back. Mallex Smith walked and stole second to lead off the inning, then Hedges drove him home with a single to center.
That wound up being the final run of the night as the Padres and Mariners ended the game after 9 full with a 5-5 tie.
The Padres big leaguers are off today, but there will be a minor league game this afternoon featuring a start by Eric Stults and an appearance by a certain third-baseman recovering from a strained calf. Cactus League action will continue tomorrow night when our boys take on the Giants in the second of three televised night games this week. The season is getting closer, folks!
The Padres always seem like a team that make moves that seem to make sense, and should put them in a position to contend, but it never really comes together for some reason. I wonder why?
*Scrolls up to earlier in article. Sees who their GM is.*
Okay, that makes some sense.
Whether they will eventually be or not, the Padres went into this past offseason with the mindset of being a contender. The acquisitions of Torres and Benoit shore up an already decent-looking Bullpen on paper. They've taken a lottery ticket on Josh Johnson, and if he stays healthy, he could dominate with Petco as his home park. They're also banking on a bounce-back performance from Ian Kennedy (sounds familiar). If everything goes right, their pitching staff could be formidable, and could be much better than the 3.98 ERA put up by the entire staff last season (good for 11th in the National League, and that's playing half their games in Petco, if they were at Coors or something it would probably be like 70.22. That might be a slight exaggeration.)
The problem is, their batters combined for a .686 OPS last season, 13th in the National League. Again, you can point to Petco, and there is some merit to that, as their OPS improves to .698 away from it, which is 7th best in the NL among Away OPS totals, but it's not like they're setting the world on fire in that department. They also had a wRC+ of 94, which is not great if I'm honest.
It doesn't feel like they've upgraded their offense enough. Losing Cameron Maybin for a lengthy period of time after he ruptured a bicep on a diving catch in Spring Training doesn't help. (The lesson here, kids? Never try hard at anything.)
They will, presumably, get Everth Cabrera for a full season after he was suspended for having his name written down on a piece of paper in the Biogenesis thing. If Carlos Quentin stays healthy a full season, that will also help. However "If Carlos Quentin stays healthy a full season" is on par with "If Rob Schneider wins an Oscar" on the pantheon of improbable conditional statements.
The biggest storyline, in traditional sports media parlance, for the Padres is the contract status of Chase Headley. At one point a few years ago it seemed like Headley would become the face of the franchise long term, but Headley and the Padres have yet to come close to a deal, and Headley will not negotiate with the Padres during the season. It's certainly possible that something gets done and he stays with San Diego long-term, but in my opinion, and in the words of the greatest broadcaster of our time, he gone. If the Padres falter this season, Josh Byrnes will probably be fielding a lot of phone calls from contending teams for Headley.
Yet, for some reason, the Padres have been a thorn in the side of the Diamondbacks. Last year they went 12-7 against the Sedona Red Brigade. It's hard to explain why this happens, it just does. I know that's not the most thought out or well researched analysis, but anybody who has watched the D'Backs knows what I am talking about. When someone says "Man, we make that guy look like a hall of famer!" when talking of a starting pitcher dominating the D'Backs lineup, they're talking about Eric Stults.
Their new Triple-A team is called the "El Paso Chihuahuas"
Links
SBNation Blog: Gaslamp Ball (Enter at your own risk)
While most of the major league camp enjoyed their day off on Wednesday, Chase Headley got to work at the plate to prepare for his Cactus League debut tomorrow.
Although most of the big leaguers in Padres camp had an off day today, Chase Headley got in some playing time on the backfields in Peoria. The third-baseman saw action in two minor league games and collected three hits (two singles and a double) on the day.
Corey Brock also tells us that Headley is confident he'll be ready by Opening Day on March 30th. Obviously that's coming up really quickly (nine days!), but Savior seems adamant about doing whatever it takes to make sure he's ready to go against the Dodgers.
He said if he needed additional at-bats, he could always stay behind in Arizona and get at-bats on March 27, a day after the team breaks camp and heads back to San Diego.
Too soon or just in time?
When Headley went down with calf strain, Corey Brock predicted it would take about three weeks to recover. Headley was diagnosed on February 25th, so it's been three weeks and a day that Headley's been working to get to where he is now. But with the Padres' track record for injuries (and re-injuries), one would be cautious about getting him back in action too soon and putting him in a position where he could possibly reaggravate the injury. Judging from today's performance and his comments to Brock he does seem like he's ready to be back, so let's cross our fingers that he's not jumping the gun.*
Fans not at Spring Training will get their first look at Headley when our Padres take on the Giants at home tomorrow, a game that will be televised on FSSD/MLB.TV. Look for him to be in the starting lineup and, despite not taking the field in the minor league games today, patrolling the hot corner against San Francisco.
*There's no evidentiary reason to believe he is jumping the gun, but as a Padres fan I have grown accustomed to getting my hopes up with a player only to see him suffer a setback (especially lately). Nevertheless, KTF.
After taking the day off yesterday, our Padres are back at it tonight as they resume Cactus League play by hosting the Giants in Peoria Andrew Cashner and his nine-inning scoreless streak will make the start against San Francisco. Cashner was scratched from his last Cactus League start against the Dodgers and instead pitched in a minor league game, going 5 2/3 innings while allowing one run.
Giants starter Madison Bumgarner is also riding a scoreless streak going into tonight's game. In his three prior starts he's kept opponents to five hits in ten innings of work. He'll be working on an extra day of rest when he takes on the Padres tonight.
Watch/Listen
Another night game, another TV broadcast. Catch Cashner and co. on Fox Sports SD and MLB Network, or you can tune into The Mighty 1090 for the radio call.
Every week we'll take a look at our division rivals in the National League West, see who's playing well, who's struggling, and what fans are talking about around the division...
Record: 10-10 Looking Good: Carlos Gonzalez (.385/.484/.731) - The man they call CarGo has been a general force of terror in the Rockies lineup for the past few seasons, and he's definitely carrying that into spring training this year. Five of his ten hits have been for extra bases, and when you add on his five walks, he's a threat every time he steps up to the plate. Time to Worry?: Michael Cuddyer (.138/.219/.172) - Looking elsewhere in the Rockies outfield, though, the same can't be said of Michael Cuddyer's spring numbers. For his part, Cuddyer says he's not concerned- he's just focused on his health, and that's feeling good. But he says he's not concerned and he'll produce better during the season. Storyline of the Week: Jhoulys Chacin's Delayed Return - Chacin was shut down last month for shoulder strain. Original plans were to have him back in early April, but Bill Geivett, the assistant GM, said Wednesday that the ETA now is early May for Chacin. The Rockies are seeing good results from their other starters this spring, but you know how Coors Field plays, and they can never have too many starters.
Record: 6-10 Looking Good: Dan Haren (1.80 ERA) - One of the off-season signings for the Dodgers, Haren has been looking pretty strong in his outings so far, only allowing two runs. He's giving up a fair number of hits, but they haven't been coming around to score yet. Time to Worry?: Yasiel Puig (.122/.136/.195) - Only five hits for Puig so far this spring, and he was restricted in throwing due to some shoulder inflammation back around when players were reporting. However, his arm seems to be fine at the moment- he made some good throws in the exhibition game against Australia today. Storyline of the Week: Dodgers Down Under- Los Angeles is dealing with the same relocation issues for the opening series of the season as the Diamondbacks are, and there's been a few more cracks in the PR face than we've seen from Arizona. Andre Ethier (did you know he went to ASU?) in particular is tired of questions, apparently. This has led some DBacks fans to post #FakeDodgerComplaints on Twitter...
Record: 6-11 Looking Good: Tommy Medica (.396/.420/.646, 2 home runs) - Medica doesn't have a gauranteed spot on the Padres roster this season, as he's fighting for a bench position. But if his numbers in spring training mean anything (spoiler: they might not) then the team is going to have a hard time justifying a choice to send him back down to the minors. Though Medica is turning 26 next month and first made it past single A ball last season, he hit a respectable .290 with a .829 OPS for San Diego in his 19 appearances in a Padres uniform. Time to Worry?: Will Venable (.188/.212/.188) - There's a number of uninspiring offensive performances coming out of the Padres this spring, but Will Venable and his complete lack of power has to have them a little concerned. The sluggish spring has left him with more strike outs than total bases, and a few stolen bases doesn't mean much if he isn't getting on often to start with. Storyline of the Week: Chase Headley's Back- Headley strained his right calf in practice back in February, and hasn't appeared in a game yet. He played in a Triple-A and a Double-A game yesterday, though, and is expected to make a start for the Padres today. Having his bat back in the lineup couldn't hurt for the struggling Padres.
Record: 11-9 Looking Good: Madison Bumgarner (2-0, 0.00 ERA in 3 starts) - Bumgarner did miss a start last week for the Giants, but he's been lights out otherwise. He's only allowed five hits and one walk over his ten innings of pitching this spring, so once he gets back to his usual start lengths again, I'm sure he'll be looking forward to games that count. Time to Worry?: Ryan Vogelsong (1-1, 9.00 ERA in 3 starts) - On the other end of the spectrum, there's Ryan Vogelsong, who has given up an impressive 18 runs (15 earned) in his three starts this Spring Training. The bulk of the damage came in a 2.2 ining appearance against the Indians on Tuesday, where he allowed nine runs, only one unearned. But he also had a fairly disastrous outing against the Mariners earlier in the month. He's obviously working on something new- apparently he was trying a new windup in the Seattle start- but for a team that'll need to rely on good pitching, it has to make fans nervous. Storyline of the Week: Timmeh? Speaking of pitching, can Tim Lincecum remake himself into a new pitcher? He's certainly not the guy who won those Cy Young Awards and terrorized the NL West (offer not valid for Paul Goldschmidt). He's only struck out four batters in four starts, and early reports don't sound good about his stamina on the mound, so he'll definitely need some work.
If you were at the Leadership Q&A at Padres FanFest in February you know that a masculine child asked Bud Black who he'd choose to pitch the home opener, and Black nodded towards Andrew Cashner saying he had a better chance than the others. If you weren't there, then you're probably learning right now that Andrew Cashner has, in fact, been named Opening Night starter.
And it's official...Buddy Black has named Andrew Cashner his Opening Night starter.
This shouldn't come as a surprise to you either way, since historically a team has their best pitcher throw on Opening Day. Andrew Cashner is the Padres best pitcher and maybe the best baseball player on the team, so he deserves the high honor.
I'm excited. What'd we decide to do as fans for Cashner starts? I forget, are we sounding duck calls at the ballpark, taking #duckface selfies on Twitter or both? Someone remind me.
So apparently Andrew Cashner celebrated the announcement that he would be the Padres' Opening Night starter by giving up 8 runs (though, in fairness, only 4 of those were earned). I say apparently, because he cunningly saved his worst start of the spring for the night nobody in San Diego was paying attention. In case you're living under a rock (in which case, how are you reading this?), the Aztecs played their first game of the March Madness tournament tonight, so local sports fans were more than a little preoccupied.
While Cashner had a lousy night, there were still some highlights in this blowout. Donn Roach and Jesse Hahn both threw a couple of excellent innings. Alex Castellanos showed off his speed by making this spectacular sliding catch in left field.
On the subject of speed, Jace Peterson knocked this pitch into center right and then turned on the afterburners to pick up a triple.
After Jedd Gyorko knocked Peterson in, Kyle Blanks hit his second bomb of the spring, scoring Tommy Medica and bringing the Padres to within... 8. But who cares? Even in a total blowout, that homer is a sight to be seen.
And then Alexi Amarista kept the ninth inning rally going by turning what should have been a simple bloop single into a triple.
But that was all the Padres could muster tonight. I assume they're saving the real epic comebacks for when they actually count.
Which organizations in the NL West are the most top heavy?
A few days ago Dave Schoenfield of ESPN wrote an interesting article about the ten best cores in baseball; his measurement was which teams' best five players accrued the most WAR. Eight teams in the top ten were playoff teams. One of the non playoff teams, the Texas Rangers, won 91 games. The Rockies were the other team, with 74 wins. And they didn't barely sneak into the top ten; they ranked a solid sixth (with 24.2 rWAR), sandwiched between the Rangers (24.1) and the Cardinals (24.6).
So what's going on here? Why is every other team with such a great core a playoff contender, while the Rockies bumbled to a last place finish?
The obvious answer is that roster spots 6 through 30 punched far below the weight of the other teams. Add up the rest of the roster and the non-top-five guys accrued a whopping nine wins above replacement. Contrast that with the Cardinals (16.5)* and the Rangers (24.4). The Dodgers added 32.2 extra wins from all players not named Clayton Kershaw, Juan Uribe, Hanley Ramirez, Yasiel Puig and Hyun Jim Ryu.
*Seems low for the Cardinals, but remember, they had a historic season when hitting with runners in scoring position
So yeah. Depth. The Rockies featured 18 players in 2013 who performed below replacement level. The Cardinals played 17, the Rangers 12 and the Dodgers 19. Doesn't sound so bad, yeah? Well, when you add up those sub-replacement level players, the Rockies lost 12.4 wins. The Cards only lost 6.7, the Rangers 5.3, and the Dodgers 7.4.* The Rockies gave far too many chances to the likes of Tyler Colvin, Chris Nelson, and Jordan Pacheco, who combined for -4.1 WAR.
*RhodeIslandRoxFan's drag factor measurement looks at all this stuff more in depth than I do, but it's the same principle: the Rockies gave too many plate appearances and defensive innings to guys who couldn't perform. Also, I apologize for only focusing on three other teams, but I don't have the time to Excel-erize every team.
Then, of course, there's health. Tulo was limited to 126 games. CarGo only got into 110. Dexter Fowler played in only 119 and Wilin Rosario only 121. It's no coincidence that the Rockies nosedived after Tulo and Cargo got hurt in mid summer. I hate complaining about health (lest we forget, the Dodgers received partial seasons from Ramirez and Puig), but when your core contributors only play 2/3 of a season, the results suffer.
Anyway. That's enough looking backwards. I'm curious as to how the cores of the NL West teams stack up for 2014. Fangraphs' projections see the top 5's of the NL West shaping up like so:
Projections in baseball are always a fraught enterprise, since there's so much variability in performance and injury luck. I mean, a few days ago the Diamondbacks would look a lot better, but Patrick Corbin's UCL snapped like a dry rubber band, significantly altering their 2014. So while it's fun to quibble with results spit out by a computer (wait, Nicasio is projected to be our most valuable pitcher? WTF?), they're the most impartial system we have available.
The Rockies sit smack dab in the middle. They're +1.7 on the Diamondbacks and +4.2 on the Padres. Meanwhile they're -1.0 to the Giants and -2.5 on the Dodgers. That's not a bad place to start.
Obviously the Rockies' top five has a great chance to be the top core in the NL West. Tulo and Cargo's projections are dragged down a bit from all the time they've missed. Nolan Arenado is primed for a big breakout. ZIPS seems overly pessimistic toward Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge de la Rosa. But as we know, just having a top notch core isn't enough. The theme of the off-season was addressing the Rockies' depth issues; we'll see if that pays off in 2014.
What is the consensus ranking for each of the Padres' top prospects?
Where no counsel is, the people fall: but in the multitude of counselors there is safety.
-Proverbs 11:14
Prospect lists are a tricky animal. Every prospect guru has his or her own biases, favorite prospects, sources, and philosophy, leading to quite a variety in the placement of specific players on his or her list. I like making lists and I like prospects, but I'm no scout and I have no inside connections, so my list wouldn't hold any particular weight. Instead of spending loads of time ranking the players with my own biases, I decided a few years ago to instead assemble a consensus list for each team. You can view all of the previous lists here. Hopefully this will bring safety from a multitude of counselors.
How do I do this? Each time a prospect appears on a list, he gets a number of points (31 minus his ranking). The prospect with the largest amount of points is ranked first.
This year, I made a few changes to the list. First off, I included as many lists as I could possibly find. This includes list from team-specific sites, not just from sites that post a list for every team. Second, I created a separate list for fantasy rankings. Fantasy baseball sites rank their prospects with a different flavor and so there are two rankings: one for real baseball and one for fantasy.
Jesse Hahn was traded to the team very late into the off-season after most lists were already out. I gave him an eight ranking on all the lists that missed him, which was the average of his ranking for the two lists on which he appeared.
The "Change" column describes how the prospect’s status changed from 2013. A positive number means the prospect moved up in the list, while a negative number means he moved down.
Here is a spreadsheet that contains all of the 2014 San Diego Padres top prospect rankings in one place. I have removed Keith Law's as his lists require a subscription, though his list is included in the final tally.
This was originally posted on March 21, 2013 as 'Mike Darr Would Have Turned 37 Today'. The age he would be and the age of his son have been updated to reflect the year which has passed.
Today used to be Mike Darr's birthday.
Mike Darr's last birthday was his twenty-fifth; eleven months before the accident that took his and his best friend's lives. Nobody knows what would have become of Darr if he chose not to drink and drive that night in 2002. He could conceivably still be playing, becoming a Padres legend on the field, or perhaps bouncing around the league like teammate Mark Kotsay wound up doing. Or maybe he'd be retired by now, at home with his wife who never would have gotten remarried, and coaching his sons. As it stands now, his oldest son is 19 and played quarterback and outfield at his dad's old high school.
No, none of us know what Mike Darr would be up to today if he'd called a cab that night. And I hope I never have to wonder that about any of you.
Don't drink and drive.
Just don't. There's no excuse. You can call a cab or call a friend, and if it really comes down to it you can walk. It might be a terrible inconvenience but it's nowhere near as inconvenient as being dead.
Happy birthday, Mike Darr. Wish you were here to celebrate it.
The Padres have a wide range of potential win totals. What is going to be most important in their pursuit of October baseball?
The Padres are going to be quite an interesting team this year due to a highly talented roster saturated with injury prone players. While constructing the 2014 team, general manager Josh Byrnes has taken on significant risk while trying to accrue sufficient talent to compete with the superstar-laden Dodgers and solid Giants.
The tale of the 2014 Padres begins in October of 2009, when Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod left the Boston Red Sox to take over for Kevin Towers. Now led by two of the top front office minds in baseball, they quickly began to hoard talent. They would finish 90-72 in 2010, good for a second place finish in the West. Their direction completely flipped that offseason, when they traded star 1B Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox in exchange for a package including RHP Casey Kelley and 1B Anthony Rizzo. In the coming year, they turned LF Ryan Ludwick, RHP Mat Latos, and RHP Mike Adams into prospects, as well as flipping Rizzo for RHP Andrew Cashner. Their 2011 draft was a boon due to late round hits on right-handers Matt Wisler (7), Burch Smith (14), and Matt Stites (17) in addition to C Austin Hedges (2) and SS Jace Peterson (1s).
Josh Byrnes would take over as GM as Hoyer followed his former boss, Theo Epstein, to Chicago. Byrnes would continue to foster the talent gathering, mainly from the draft as they acquired LHP Max Fried and RF Hunter Renfroe in the first round of the following respective drafts. Once slightly devoid of talent, they were now replenished and in good shape. Their farm system was rated the 6th best in 2013 and 9th best in 2014 according to Keith Law's rankings.
Finally the beneficiary of good scouting and player development, the talent is now present in the 2014 Padres organization. One issue for them is going forward is that injuries have taken a significant toll on them. Currently built around a core of injury-prone players, it doesn't appear as if luck is on their side while keeping players healthy.
2013 Season in Review
The 2013 season went pretty much as you'd expect one to go with a roster built with injury marred and young players. Six of their eight regulars spent upwards of 15 days on the DL, including CF Cameron Maybin, who appeared in only 14 games due to wrist and knee injuries. They lost their most dependable starter, LHP Corey Luebke, to Tommy John surgery, the same fate as RHP Joe Wieland. Chase Headley was disappointing for the Friars, with his value being cut in half from the previous season falling to 3.6 fWAR. OF Chris Denorfia burst on the scene in his age-33 season to post a 3.9 fWAR. Both OF Carlos Quentin and Cashner showed flashes of brilliance, with the former posting a 143 wRC+ in 320 PA and the latter a 3.35 FIP in 26 starts. LHP Eric Stults seemingly came out of nowhere to throw 203.2 valuable innings.
Key Offseason Moves
1) Signed RHP Josh Johnson to 1-year deal worth $8 million
It's superfluous to recap what's been said before: If healthy, Johnson is going to be a steal (Alex Keinholz). The thing is, he was both unhealthy and bad last year, posting a 152 ERA- in 81.1 innings. Still, if he stays healthy, his plus arsenal could play up PETCO.
2) Traded RHP Luke Gregerson to Oakland for OF Seth Smith
This move was slightly bewildering, but not because they didn't receive good value. The addition of Smith only added to their glut of outfielders, one that has already thinned with a spring injury to Maybin. Smith is a pretty monotonous player, a power bat who will provide a value against righties, post anemic numbers against lefties, and play at a below-average level in the outfield. He's likely the fourth best outfielder on the team behind Will Venable, Chris Denorfia, and Quentin.
3) Acquired 1B/OF Alex Dickerson from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for OF Jaff Decker and RHP Miles Mikolas
I included this deal simply because I'm enamored with challenge trades. Coming up, Decker was heralded as a lumbering outfielder who would provide value by crushing the ball and walking. He has been stalled in the upper minors since 2011, begging to be picked up by a team who is looking for some pop-up value. Dickerson is an interesting case. He likely won't hit enough to justify an everyday role at 1B, but also lacks the athleticism to play the outfield. Both Decker and Dickerson could be useful bench bats for their new teams.
One to Watch
It could all be so simple for Andrew Cashner. The 27-year old tall Texan has thrown only 286.1 innings in the big leagues, enough for evaluators to comfortably deem him a potential top of the rotation arm. From a Baseball Prospectus article back in September of 2013, we get one scout's take on Cashner: "This guy is really coming fast with his ascent to the top of a rotation. His delivery is under control and he is repeating extremely well. He is one of the best athletes on the mound in the league and has really turned the corner with his pitch making. It looks like he has added a two-seam FB to his already dominant velocity and that could be a difference maker. I saw him pitch as well as he ever has this week and he is quickly becoming a legit ace."
Cashner does have a few minor red flags. He has a checkered medical record in his rear view mirror, spotted with rotator cuff strains. His opponent's BABIP was only .269 in 2013, which translated to a 3.63 xFIP compared to a 3.09 ERA. There's a little room for regression along with health risks that are going to be interesting to follow. However, if healthy, you're looking at a frontline starter who will legitimately sit 94-96 touching 98 with a devastating changeup. Fun.
Padres by the Numbers
28. This is the number of Tommy John surgeries Padres players have succumbed to since 1977. That figure is tied with St. Louis for second most behind the Braves. The Padres had Luebke, RHP Jason Marquis, RHP Casey Kelley, RHP Juan Oramos, and RF Rymer Liriano all go under the knife in the past two years, as well as Luebke again this February. Another interesting thing to note is that they have had three position players have surgery in the past five years, more than anyone else by a solid margin. This number could be tied to luck, or possibly an underlying organization philosophy. Numbers like these are important to note when looking at success throughout the entire organization.
2014 Padres Outlook
I have to say, I'm torn. PECOTA projects a finish of 81-81, which sounds fairly accurate. There is a large range in which I'd feel comfortable putting their win total due to their high level of volatility. If injuries continue to ransack their roster, I could see them winning around 75 games. However, with a large stroke of luck in the maintenance of their health, they could a very legitimate contender for a postseason slot. The front office has taken a gamble, cognizant of the fact that this team could go one of two ways: getting blown up by injuries or looking like geniuses for betting on the right talent. It's going to be an exhilarating year for the Friars, but for now, you stay classy San Diego.
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Daniel Schoenfeld is a contributor at Beyond the Box Score. You can can be found on Twitter at @DanielSchoe.
Ian Kennedy will get the ball for the fifth time this Spring as the Padres play host to the Mariners.
Our Padres will take on the Mariners again tonight, this time as the home team, in another 7pm start time. Last night's affair against the Giants was an ugly one for starting pitcher, Andrew Cashner, but Ian Kennedy hopes to have better luck in leading the Friars to victory tonight. In his fifth start of the Spring, the right-hander looks to throw around 75 pitches and/or work upwards of six innings. He's allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits in 13 2/3 innings of work this Spring, with most of his struggles coming forth over his last two starts. He allowed four runs on eight hits, including a homer, in each of his last two outings.
Also making his fifth Cactus League start will be Seattle youngster James Paxton. The right-hander's strong preseason campaign has earned him a spot in the Mariners' rotation. He's kept opponents to just three runs on 13 hits and 3 walks while striking out eight batters through 13 innings this Spring
Watch/listen:
This is the one game of the Spring you absolutely do not want to miss out on. Trust me, just find a way to watch this one. Our man Dex (you remember him, right?) will be joining bloggers from Padres Public, Lobshots, and Friarhood for the return of "The Bloggers Take Over" on Fox Sports San Diego. They'll be on air during the 5th and 6th innings of tonight's game, so don't miss out. The game will obviously be televised on FSSD, as well as MLB.TV. If you so choose, there will also be radio broadcasts available on The Mighty 1090, Gameday Audio, and At-Bat, but make sure to switch over to TV at the beginning of the 5th.
Make sure to tune in to FSSD tonight to see Dex on Bloggers Take Over during the 5th and 6th innings of the broadcast in Peoria. Also, follow along with Gaslamp Ball on Twitter (I've also embedded the Twitter feed below, for ease) to see all the shenanigans that are going along with it.
Chase Headley is back in the lineup, making his second straight (and overall) start of the Spring. He went 0-for-2 with a strikeout last night. He moved up in the lineup to the 2-spot tonight, with Carlos Quentin batting behind him as the DH.
Tonight the M's take the Padres again in what is quickly becoming one of the most heavily contested rivalries in all sports. That's the bad news. The good news is that James Paxton will be returning to the mound, and hopefully the ball will stay away from Padre bats, or at least remain on the ground this time. Even more good news is that Hisashi Iwakuma played catch with a tennis ball this morning, and tomorrow, Taijuan Walker will pitch in a minor league game. Baby steps, everybody. On to the details!
Tonight's game will be broadcast on ROOT as well as on ESPN 710 AM radio, and mlb.com
The M's have put DJ Peterson and Austin Wilson on the roster for tonight's game. Don't expect much more than maybe the eight or ninth innings out of them, if that.
In order to get what is presumably another, deeper look for Stephen Romero in LF, Dustin Ackley will be DH'ing for the night. That's right. Dustin Ackley, designated hitter. Welcome to 2014, folks
Dex was super dreamy on Fox Sports San Diego tonight.
Yeah, Ian Kennedy was solid tonight, striking out 7 in 5.2 innings while giving up a pair of runs on 3 hits and 2 walks. The offense came out in force, too, with extra base hits from 5 different Padres, including a pair of doubles from America's Finest City's Sweetheart Will Venable. But if you're like me, you tuned in to see the pretty face of our very own Dex during the 5th and 6th innings. He represented us well, calling for robot umps and telling the story of the Sisterhood of the Traveling Jersey. He was joined by Rick of Padres Public, Brady of LobShots, and Steve of Friarhood. Fox Sports San Diego was kind enough to have the bloggers take over a night game this season, so Rick didn't turn lobster red in the Arizona sun. There was some spirited debate about whether Tommy Medica should make the roster, what the human element of umpiring adds to the game (nothing), and just how sexy Austin Hedges is (very). And best of all, Brady didn't tell another Jeff Cirillo story.
We're back to day games and radio tomorrow as Tyson Ross starts against a split squad White Sox team at 1:05 PM.
The Mariners fell to the Padres 7-2 on Friday, but Eddie Vedder was probably watching the Cubs so whatever.
Well, it wasn't quite the James Paxton outing we were hoping for, and the Mariners followed their prized lefty prospect down the road to a rough outing in Friday's 7-2 loss to the Padres. Perhaps they were just trying to make him feel better by not showing him up once he left the game, or maybe it was that they just played bad baseball. The reality lies somewhere in between the two.
Like his last outing, Paxton's line on the night clouds what really happened a bit. He ran into a little trouble in the second after a 1-2-3 first, giving up back to back singles to Yonder Alonso and Kyle Blanks before walking Yasmani Grandal on eight pitches, which were all fastballs. Once again, Paxton was throwing a lot of fastballs, so his results can't really be attributed to in game strategy or anything. In addition, his mini-meltdown in the second definitely seemed stress induced rather than stuff-related. He didn't get any help from home plate umpire Adrian Johnson, either--here's his walk to Yasmani Grandal which loaded the bases:
Yikes. He could've been out twice here with someone else behind the plate. But Paxton settled down after a visit to the mound by pitching coach Rick Waits (It's going to take a while for my fingers to type this instead of Carl Willis), and returned to form for another 1-2-3 third inning. He walked Kyle Blanks to start the fourth, and quickly saw two on after errors by Brad Miller and Abraham Almonte on the same play. More defensive woes...and my Brendan Ryan shirt is still wrinkled in my closet as I write this. Paxton's line on the day was 4IP 4H 3R 2BB 4K.
The real fun came in the fifth and sixth as Zach Miner decided to gift the Padres with a bunch of doubles, which was nice of him and everything, but as a player in the Mariners organization he's supposed to be a little more selfish toward the other team. When I wrote that last sentence I laughed to myself about the "player in the Mariners organization" part, but then I saw that he's on the list for the long relief role in the bullpen this year. I wondered if this was a bad thing, seeing as yet another post-Tommy Johns non-roster invitee topping out at 90 in competition during late March is just about the most Mariners thing ever, but you know, Hector Noesi. So to hell with it, I don't even know what to think anymore.
Brad Miller continued to impress both in the field and with his bat tonight, putting weight behind both that Peter Gammons tweet from earlier and just about everything posted on this website in the past two months. On one hand this is exciting, and if he keeps it up, you're going to see that word, "impress(ive)" posted on national sites in May from those few baseball writers that pay attention to things outside LA and the northeast. On the other hand, maybe Brad Miller is actually just this good, and what's happening isn't this incredibly successful stretch of spring training games but just, you know, Brad Miller. I want that to be the case, because in a way, that's even more exciting.
So there was a Brad Miller double, a Robinson Cano double, and a failed challenge in the eighth from Lloyd Mcclendon following a bases-loaded groundout from Austin Wilson. Dave Sims was off for the night, and after trading some radio time between Rick Rizzs and Mike Blowers, the familiar do-it-all ROOT anchor Brad Adam came over for the play by play. I have to admit I was skeptical for some reason, but I actually really enjoyed his work tonight.
Lastly, there was a brief fracas on the base paths leading to a challenge in the bottom of the fourth. It came after Logan Morrison reached on an error, wherein he was quickly replaced on the basepaths by Leury Bonilla. Leury Bonilla was playing in his fifth spring training game, probably ecstatic to still be wearing a Major League uniform this late in March having played in the minor leagues for the past nine years. As he squished his oversized batting helmet down onto his head, he took an eager lead off the bag, juggling his feet in the dirt on the way to second in sync with his assuredly rapid heart rate. can't mess this up gotta show em what I got he thought. get that lead get it you can take second play in another game tomorrow gotta impress em.
He didn't even seem to notice the pitch from Ian Kennedy, or the first part of the throw back to the bag to tag him out. wait no wait no no I should get back shouldn't I he thought as he stumbled back to the bag without touching it, stopping a full six inches away as his shoulder was swept by the tag. Out. that's it its all over for you Leury, you blew it pack your bags it's over. But then the umpire waved his arms sideways shouting Safe!, having apparently missed the tag altogether. oh...oh god keep your head down and your mouth shut Leurydon't let em notice you you can still get out of this one alive.
Padres manager Bud Black ran out of the dugout with a challenge, and as the umpires huddled around the tiny monitor to review the call Leury Bonilla's heart was beating so hard he couldn't feel the tips of his fingers. This was it. Make or break. Impress the team or be sent back to the showers. The final stop for Leury Bonilla. Then, the umpires emerged from their review and upheld the call. Bonilla was safe. He was still in good graces. Maybe he was going to be a Mariner someday after all. The Mariners. Major League. He smiled. I wonder what it's going to be like? Two minutes later the inning was over and he was left stranded on first base.
Leury Bonilla isn't going to be on the Mariners this year, but for a few brief minutes tonight, he found out exactly what it feels like.
